Season Super Game Thread

[dim]

Jumping ahead a bit here? I mean he has awesome power, but he's never put it together for any stretch in his career. His AAA line is solid and maybe he's a late bloomer I guess? If that can translate into .230/.300+/.450+ that's a fine bench bat for them, plus an emergency 3rd catcher which is nice if you want to pinch hit with the other one.

He's out of options which is an issue, but I agree to the extent of I don't mind protecting him on the 40 man and figuring it out in Spring Training.

I think I underestimated him. He's clearly the next Joe DiMaggio.

[lou]

So did they trade the NL MVP in 2017 and 2018 (Yelich).

He has a commanding lead in WAR over Cain, Rendon, Goldschmidt, Baez, Carpenter.... and Realmuto.

[rmc523]

So did they trade the NL MVP in 2017 and 2018 (Yelich).

He has a commanding lead in WAR over Cain, Rendon, Goldschmidt, Baez, Carpenter.... and Realmuto.

He hit for his second cycle this year last night.

[Nick]

The depression is real.

[lou]

He hit for his second cycle this year last night.

Yea that's what made me look.

Kudos to the Brewers for acquiring the best two players in the NL in one offseason. That's amazing.

He's totally winning the MVP if the Brewers make the playoffs. It's Baez if he doesn't.

[fish16]

Ya Yelich is quickly making that deal look bad no matter the return, but obviously especially considering the struggles this year of the 3 hitters we got in the deal (although Diaz was good just was promoted a little too soon). I still think we got 3 everyday above average lineup pieces at least plus whatever Yamamoto is, but Yelich is having an absolutely spectacular year.

[lou]

Ya Yelich is quickly making that deal look bad no matter the return, but obviously especially considering the struggles this year of the 3 hitters we got in the deal (although Diaz was good just was promoted a little too soon). I still think we got 3 everyday above average lineup pieces at least plus whatever Yamamoto is, but Yelich is having an absolutely spectacular year.

If he is a 6 WAR dude moving forward, he is worth around $250 million in surplus value. Give or take. Probably a little less.

Collectively, Brinson, Harrison, Diaz, and Yamamoto will probably make around $70 million through their club controlled years if they turn into competent normal players. So all 4 of them are going to need to produce, at minimum, 30+ WAR to relatively break even. I think that's the roundball bottom line. They need to get 30 WAR out of those 4 guys for their club controlled years to not get killed on this trade. (I know this is difficult for other reasons, like, Yelich is doing that from 1 position spot not 4, but we're thinking bottom line here based on valuation.)

I'm taking the under here, but there is some hope if the three of them are 5 year starters and they average into a 2 WAR player. That gets you there.

[fish16]

As long as you get 3 above average starters from the hitters, which i think is certainly possible if not more from 1-2 of them, then i think we grade out fine. Obviously losing a star sucks, but one of the reasons for the trade in the first place was to turn one hitting asset into several as part of an organizational philosophy to rebuild the team from the system on up the the big leagues. We still have a chance to do this.

I find myself seeing both sides, the one that we gave up a star on a great contract in his prime and also the one that sees that we needed to turn a few assets into a lot of assets over the period of a few years.

Ultimately this rests on the 3 hitters in that trade. I still think Brinson will be good and be a low OBP but big pure power, great defense, and good speed and around a 3 WAR player. I see Harrison as a similar guy but with more pure "loud tools." Reminds me of Justin Upton as far as future potential statline. Big arm, unreal pure power, but more K'ing than upton. Diaz is the safest of the 3 to me as a long term 2b of the future. Probably wont be a star, but he has a pretty high floor of 15-20 HR power, great BB rate, lot of K's, and some speed. Kinsler is a decent comp for him to me. I see his long term stat line being like a .260 hitter, high OBP, 10-15 sb's, 15-20+ hr's, and decent enough defense at 2b. I ultimately think it comes down to this: Brewers obviously made a good win now move that will help them long term, and we will have made out fine if any combo of 3/4 of the guys we got eventually panning out, or 2 of them if one becomes a star. Time will tell, but I think we might end up with a decent return when we look back on it.

- - - - - - - - - -

And as much as id love to have yelich here, what would our best hitting prospects be for the next few years to surround him and JT in this hypothetical scenario. You all have your opinions on our return and i dont want to get into that any more as its useless, but we'd be just as close to winning with Yelich and without the hitting prospects that deepened our hitting depth tremendously. We would have had JT, Yelich, Anderson, and what else? It remains to be seen how the trade pans out, and they should be rightly crucified for muffing the biggest trade they made this offseason, but I think we all can agree (regardless of what we think of the return as of right now) that this was a move made with an actual plan of rebuilding and gaining organizational depth as opposed to just selling off talent for strictly contractual reasons.

[Nick]

hmmm...have Yelich and have terrible hitting prospects. Or don't have Yelich and have terrible hitting prospects.

It's a tough one.

- - - - - - - - - -

And as much as id love to have yelich here, what would our best hitting prospects be for the next few years to surround him and JT in this hypothetical scenario. You all have your opinions on our return and i dont want to get into that any more as its useless, but we'd be just as close to winning with Yelich and without the hitting prospects that deepened our hitting depth tremendously. We would have had JT, Yelich, Anderson, and what else? It remains to be seen how the trade pans out, and they should be rightly crucified for muffing the biggest trade they made this offseason, but I think we all can agree (regardless of what we think of the return as of right now) that this was a move made with an actual plan of rebuilding and gaining organizational depth as opposed to just selling off talent for strictly contractual reasons.

The bolded part is I guess true, but is having depth really that important if the depth isn't any good? Brinson could turn it around, but fact of the matter is he was an overall negative this year, which was the year pretty much everyone agreed should've been the year he broke onto the scene in the majors at 24 years old with nothing left to prove in the minors. I've loved Harrison's tools since we traded for him. I just don't see how you could put any kind of expectations on a guy who struck out at a historical rate at AA this year, which caused him to have down offensive numbers pretty much across the board. And then our "sure-thing" prospect has hit around .240 since leaving Rookie Ball, not exactly knocking my socks off.

[fish16]

hmmm...have Yelich and have terrible hitting prospects. Or don't have Yelich and have terrible hitting prospects.

It's a tough one.

- - - - - - - - - -



The bolded part is I guess true, but is having depth really that important if the depth isn't any good? Brinson could turn it around, but fact of the matter is he was an overall negative this year, which was the year pretty much everyone agreed should've been the year he broke onto the scene in the majors at 24 years old with nothing left to prove in the minors. I've loved Harrison's tools since we traded for him. I just don't see how you could put any kind of expectations on a guy who struck out at a historical rate at AA this year, which caused him to have down offensive numbers pretty much across the board. And then our "sure-thing" prospect has hit around .240 since leaving Rookie Ball, not exactly knocking my socks off.

Obviously if the prospects suck then the trade is a bust. I was just talking in terms of rationale behind making the trade in the first place.

I disagree on Brinson not having anything left to prove in the minors. Keeping him down and letting him work on his plate discipline for a month and a half would have helped (not to mention the team control implications). I think relying on his numbers from Colorado Springs is a mistake to act like he is this AAA master. He needed more time in the minors to improve his plate discipline and I said that multiple times in spring training. Theres no question he has been a disappointment this year I just think he has the tools to be a perennial all star caliber player despite what is going to be a relatively low OBP.

Harrison I agree that I love the tools and the the K rate is unsustainable if he is going to contribute, i'd just like to see him repeat AA to begin next year considering I thought he was rushed starting the year at AA to begin with after just 60 games of A+ ball. I think he will obviously always be a high K guy, but he will make pretty big adjustments as he gains more experience at that level. Im still fairly confident he will at worst become a low OBP, high K, but high power RF with great defense and a good arm, but he needs to make major strides from the jump next year, hopefully at AA where they will allow him to master the level before moving him up to AAA.

As far as Diaz, I think you need to look more closely at the numbers. First, he's been relatively young at every level. Second, BA isnt really the metric to look at anymore, OBP is. Third, those numbers were brought down significantly by 2017 where he supposedly had that hamate bone injury that essentially sent his season spiraling out of control. And then this year we moved him up (probably a little early), and those numbers dont indicate the strides he was making at AA as he had a .915 OPS in 24 post all star games there and even the few weeks prior to the all star break he was crushing it. I just wish he played SS still as his value would have been much higher there. All in all though he's one of my favorite prospects coming through the system and he has one of the safest floors of our hitting prospects.

Combined from the 3 of them at their peak I wouldnt be surprised to see 3 everyday players, each capable of hitting at least 20 hr's and stealing 10-15 bags and under team control for years to come.

- - - - - - - - - -

Alcantara going again tonight. He is the only reason i have turned into games this month. Hopefully he continues his strong finish.

[Nick]

Obviously if the prospects suck then the trade is a bust. I was just talking in terms of rationale behind making the trade in the first place.

I disagree on Brinson not having anything left to prove in the minors. Keeping him down and letting him work on his plate discipline for a month and a half would have helped (not to mention the team control implications). I think relying on his numbers from Colorado Springs is a mistake to act like he is this AAA master. He needed more time in the minors to improve his plate discipline and I said that multiple times in spring training. Theres no question he has been a disappointment this year I just think he has the tools to be a perennial all star caliber player despite what is going to be a relatively low OBP.

Harrison I agree that I love the tools and the the K rate is unsustainable if he is going to contribute, i'd just like to see him repeat AA to begin next year considering I thought he was rushed starting the year at AA to begin with after just 60 games of A+ ball. I think he will obviously always be a high K guy, but he will make pretty big adjustments as he gains more experience at that level. Im still fairly confident he will at worst become a low OBP, high K, but high power RF with great defense and a good arm, but he needs to make major strides from the jump next year, hopefully at AA where they will allow him to master the level before moving him up to AAA.

As far as Diaz, I think you need to look more closely at the numbers. First, he's been relatively young at every level. Second, BA isnt really the metric to look at anymore, OBP is. Third, those numbers were brought down significantly by 2017 where he supposedly had that hamate bone injury that essentially sent his season spiraling out of control. And then this year we moved him up (probably a little early), and those numbers dont indicate the strides he was making at AA as he had a .915 OPS in 24 post all star games there and even the few weeks prior to the all star break he was crushing it. I just wish he played SS still as his value would have been much higher there. All in all though he's one of my favorite prospects coming through the system and he has one of the safest floors of our hitting prospects.

Combined from the 3 of them at their peak I wouldnt be surprised to see 3 everyday players, each capable of hitting at least 20 hr's and stealing 10-15 bags and under team control for years to come.

- - - - - - - - - -

Alcantara going again tonight. He is the only reason i have turned into games this month. Hopefully he continues his strong finish.

Obviously, any intelligent person (none of which are in the Marlins FO) would realize Brinson should've spent the first month in AAA for a multitude of reasons, but using that as an excuse for his struggles this year seems like a bit of a stretch. Ultimately he had his month in the minors later in the year and it didn't go well.

For Diaz obviously BA isn't as important of a stat as it used to be considered, and his OBP skills are definitely a plus, but the lack of batting average keeps him from being an elite OBP guy to just an average one, and his slugging suffers as well obviously. .240/.340/.400 is about what he's been from A-Ball up until AAA, and if that's what he is at the majors that's a fringe starter/bench player at 2nd Base and that's just not good enough at this point.

[Erick]

Ya Yelich is quickly making that deal look bad no matter the return, but obviously especially considering the struggles this year of the 3 hitters we got in the deal (although Diaz was good just was promoted a little too soon). I still think we got 3 everyday above average lineup pieces at least plus whatever Yamamoto is, but Yelich is having an absolutely spectacular year.

Please stop defending everything this front office does.
They took a gamble with that deal, and it's looking horrendous.

[fish16]

Please stop defending everything this front office does.
They took a gamble with that deal, and it's looking horrendous.

i have bashed the front office consistently this year for stupid decisions relating to brinson, not trading guys at the deadline, and not signing more free agents last offseason to fill the roster so we didnt have to rush prospects.

Not shitting on a trade after 1 year is not defending everything the front office does.

- - - - - - - - - -

Obviously, any intelligent person (none of which are in the Marlins FO) would realize Brinson should've spent the first month in AAA for a multitude of reasons, but using that as an excuse for his struggles this year seems like a bit of a stretch. Ultimately he had his month in the minors later in the year and it didn't go well.

For Diaz obviously BA isn't as important of a stat as it used to be considered, and his OBP skills are definitely a plus, but the lack of batting average keeps him from being an elite OBP guy to just an average one, and his slugging suffers as well obviously. .240/.340/.400 is about what he's been from A-Ball up until AAA, and if that's what he is at the majors that's a fringe starter/bench player at 2nd Base and that's just not good enough at this point.

I think saying brinson's minor league stint didnt go well isnt fair considering he was rehabbing from a nearly 2 month injury. I just think he has more than enough talent to be a + everyday player, we've just handled him as dumb as we possibly could considering service time, major league readiness, and then batting him 8th so we can give guys like Miguel Rojas, Maybin, Prado, etc. more ab's higher in the lineup.

Again, with Diaz i think youre not taking into account that the year that is bringing that overall BA down is the year that he played with a hamate injury in his hand. He was .264 BA and .827 OPS in 2016 in A ball, then the injury last year where he hit .222, and then this year he struggled early in AA, crushed it hitting around .300 for nearly 2 months, and then obviously struggled his first time through AAA after a hot start there. He will never be a high BA guy and we both admit that, I just am not concerned yet for him. Maybe if he continues to struggle at AAA to begin next year, but looking at his numbers with context he should be just find and settle in somewhere around .245-.265 I think.

[fish16]

I really like Roger Hoover as a radio or TV voice in the future. I think he might be in for an increased role soon.

[Lee Stone]

Notes on tonight's game:
Roger Hoover is a real fan. Whenever I'v tweeted him a question about a JAX farmhand, he's gotten right back to me. Shame they wasted his time talking about innane BS. He could have offered lots of insights on Yamamoto, Beggs, Niedert, etc.
Alcantara balances things out tonight. His whole minor league career has been a single boilerplate. Lots of hits and walks and not enough strikeouts. ERA close to 4 and marginal WHIP. Reminds me of what we saw with Jarlin Garcia this year. A quick start with the Marlins was impressive, but unsupported by a minor league career ERA of near 4, just like Alcantara.
Anderson has been helpless in September.
*My special incentive to watch is O'Brien.