2024 Game Thread

[lou]

Looking more and more like we fucked up trading Bleday. .775 OPS, on pace for 20-25 homers.

I don't know if I've ever been more happy about a pick than when we drafted him. Our fucking hitting development couldn't get him to this point quick enough.

I guess the question will be how good will DDLS be, because he's basically who we traded him for now, via the Puk trade.

Of all three of those players, I'd rather have Puk who is a top 10-20 overall reliever in baseball. 2.3 WAR in 98 innings as a reliever since starter of 2023. xFIP 3.01. He's exactly the lefty reliever piece the team needs and I really question if they needed a volatile DH type over him with everything else they have (Martorella, Berry, Johnson, maybe Ramirez, as well as cheap 1B/DH FA). I guess they really love DDLS as ascending and going to doink his way to something like a .260/.310/.500+ slash or more , but I'd rather have Puk and extend him out for 4/$16m sort of thing. I get the always be trading reliever thing, but elite pitching is king. And I'm still not convinced Puk doesn't convert to a SP. CJ Wilson did it when he was 29, etc.

Anyways, Bleday is still a poor defender and is pretty average offensively. He's OK. The declining whiff rate is great for him and paying huge dividends, but he's a LF/DH. I don't miss him at all. We'd consider him a piece for sure, but below Edwards, Burger, Sanchez, and Ramirez at minimum as a third tier bat (the Marlins have no tier 1 stud bat IMO). He's a Norby or Stowers having a good year.

I agree with your analysis though, DDLS better be close to as good as Bleday in the larger scheme of things or what happened here to get the worst guy of the 3? I would unfortunately, bet Bleday here as I'm expecting enormous whiff rates from DDLS. Hope I am wrong and he's more Burger than DLC.

[fish16]

noble meyer was great last night, as was Mazur in AAA

[fish16]

and not that we got much for him, but brazoban has been pretty mediocre in NY. Chargois has been good in SEA. Puk has been great for Arizona, and so has bell. tanner scott has been up and down for SD, but hoeing has been good for them. Trevor rogers has been who he has been for his entire career outside of the beginning of 2021- a thoroughly mediocre SP

[fish16]

punching bag has managed to rack up a -.6 WAR in less than a month for the pirates. Last 2 years now has a combined -1.0 WAR and for his career he is at .6 WAR in 1720 PA's

[Nick]

Looking more and more like we fucked up trading Bleday. .775 OPS, on pace for 20-25 homers.

I don't know if I've ever been more happy about a pick than when we drafted him. Our fucking hitting development couldn't get him to this point quick enough.

I guess the question will be how good will DDLS be, because he's basically who we traded him for now, via the Puk trade.

[lou]

arm strength you cant do much about but you can absolutely improve range with more reps. Taking better routes to the ball, having better reaction time, etc are all things he can work on to improve with more reps. by my count on milb.com, he played 84 games at SS since 2018 when he was drafted. maybe it never gets better, but even as bad as it currently is, he's put up 1.7 WAR in 45 games this year. It's not like we have any better option at SS currently, and we have by my last count i believe 145 guys who can play 2b. If you get that kind of offensive production, i let it roll until another legitimate option appears. Or you trade luzardo and identify an upper minors SS like the brewers did with Ortiz and roll them out day 1 next year, edwards at 2b, norby at 3b i guess, Burger/Bride at DH/1b

Yes he was that WAR and we like WAR as shorthand for sure for evaluation purposes, but there is 1 important factor here about Edwards. .408 BABIP entering today.

He's going to lose 50-70 average points quickly and that's if he's a high BABIP player (which I would say yes to on with contact ability + solid speed). If Edwards is going to OPS an .850, one can say fuck the defense and roll him out as an offensive SS and hope to get 3+ WAR out of him. Given their positional needs, that would make sense as yes they have a lot of 2B. SS depth is actually pretty huge in baseball and that makes him a middle of the pack SS probably and wouldn't crack a top 10. That being said, I would question why are you not just getting a SS then (the Luzardo idea, etc.) as let's have an .850 OPS 2B who scales up for defense and this is probably a 5+ WAR 2B who is a top 3 player at his position in the league. Seriously. Look at Semien this year. It's just every road leads to 2B (which I don't think you disagree with), absent he can become a true SS.

And then of course, that's all assuming his BABIP normalizes and is still an .850 OPS hitter. What happens when that's .700-.750 OPS which is probably where that's going longterm once the league sees him a few times and he's more of a .280/.340/.385+ kind of guy? He becomes rather valueless at SS where any low end defender (like Rojas) jumps him in production, but still, is a good starter at 2B and probably in 2-3 WAR land. There are simply not a lot of good 2B across baseball right now. The same analysis also applies if someone wants to nitpick here and say he'll be a higher 700 OPS kind of guy. Just an even more reason to move him to 2B and maximize him in that one spot.

This is more of a thought experiment of how to get Edwards to his best self quickest as possible. As said, I'm ok dabbling some SS time, but I really don't want to mess with him too much and think it's time for that 2B transition. That being said, the defense doesn't seem to be messing with him as he is still hitting even if BABIP inflation is occurring. He's really fun. I will never understand what Kim was thinking here as I mention this is Edwards coming off an injury and is theoretically rusty missing a ton of time earlier this year. So what's he looking like when he's really got some more game experience?

[fish16]

good very early returns on norby. he looks like he belongs. sadly, through 3 games he's now 7th in war on our team out of position players currently on the active roster per baseball references WAR

[Nick]

I'm perfectly fine with Edwards playing their right now. I think it helps him in the long run, I do. But when it's time to go and compete, I'm a firm believer that you need a good defensive SS, above all other positions.

[fish16]

Edwards deficiencies at SS are lack of arm strength and lack of range at SS. These are not things that you can just all of a sudden get better at. He's a 2nd Baseman. It would be great if he could handle SS but he can't, we can move on.

arm strength you cant do much about but you can absolutely improve range with more reps. Taking better routes to the ball, having better reaction time, etc are all things he can work on to improve with more reps. by my count on milb.com, he played 84 games at SS since 2018 when he was drafted. maybe it never gets better, but even as bad as it currently is, he's put up 1.7 WAR in 45 games this year. It's not like we have any better option at SS currently, and we have by my last count i believe 145 guys who can play 2b. If you get that kind of offensive production, i let it roll until another legitimate option appears. Or you trade luzardo and identify an upper minors SS like the brewers did with Ortiz and roll them out day 1 next year, edwards at 2b, norby at 3b i guess, Burger/Bride at DH/1b

[lou]

If they're really so enamored with Lopez's defense he should be playing SS. Having him as the every day 2B right now, when we have approximately 150 2B Options between AA and the Majors and 0 SS options makes no sense.

100%. It makes no sense. Edwards is a terrible defender at SS - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. 6th percentile OOA, and 14th percentile in overall fielding. 21st arm strength, 76th sprint speed (which yes isn't defensive, but helps with reactions). To Fish16th point - he is an albatross there already and its not going to get better. Otto is not much better but 34th arm strength and 86th sprint speed. Flashing 90th and better defense at 2B. There is more hope there for sure with the probably greater range and little better arm. But yes, Edwards *should* be a much better bat with practically the vastly superior walk potential so I get testing him out a little. But see all of the above, maybe Otto is OK against right handers so they should explore him defensively at SS.

They don't have an everyday SS in the organization which I think we all agree with. It's not going to be Edwards, Otto, Serna, or Sanoja. What they need to do IMO is identify which one of them is the best backup SS who can play 20-40 games there for off days and that is the proverbial 4th/5th IF for years. I can tell you right now, I strongly feel Otto over Edwards all day in that role as a backup IF, and TBD on Serna and Sanoja when they are ready but those scouting reports don't seem promising. I suppose their idea here is Otto is likely going to get pushed off the team when Serna and Sanoja land presumably next summer latest as they are larger upside/arguably versatile players (Pauley could impact this too as he may play some 2B), so if he is a dead man walking for all star break 2025 even if he "makes it," who cares about short term SS defensive production because long term, they want Edwards, Serna, and Sanoja to be that 20-40 game backup SS as they unapologetically think about 2026 (which is something I can get behind if they are thinking maximize Otto's value at 2B if you can get anything out of him, and hope to make him a trade asset if he does hit a little, knowing Edwards can always fall back to 2B - I get that point fish16 that they can always shuffle him back).

Regardless, I'd play Otto against right handers and Edwards left handers at SS rest of the season (or at least a 50/50 split and Edwards gets some RHP). I think you'll get enough film on both of them to see if either of them can handle 1+ game at SS a week next year. Plenty of time for Edwards to get right handers at 2B so he's full time. Norby/Bride can play the rest of 2B against lefties and Norby can play everyday otherwise at 3B/LF and Bride DH or wherever. Otto can be benched on leftiese IMO. Just churn to try and generate some assets. Practically, maybe they already think/know they really need two SS and none of this matters.

[Nick]

edwards is more important. He has the type of bat and stolen base efficiency that you give every opportunity to improve and stick at SS. makes no sense to move him back to 2b right now when we know he can play there. give him the reps at SS and see what happens. it's early obviously, but his walk rate would be 4th in the league if he qualified. It's arraez lite plate discipline (many more k's but also many more walks) with more speed.

Norby has some good early returns. His words seem like he really doesnt want to play 3b but if he can get over it and be passable there, it gives some good versatility between him, edwards, then bride and burger as options on the corners, plus Serna making his way up in the system, plus Sanoja, etc. but they really need to see if one of these guys can stick at SS. Given how well edwards is hitting, i'd leave him at SS unless he is a complete albatross moving forward. his ability to provide offense at SS for us is more important than below average defense is bad for us. This team needs quality bats. figure out the defense later.

Edwards deficiencies at SS are lack of arm strength and lack of range at SS. These are not things that you can just all of a sudden get better at. He's a 2nd Baseman. It would be great if he could handle SS but he can't, we can move on.

[fish16]

If they're really so enamored with Lopez's defense he should be playing SS. Having him as the every day 2B right now, when we have approximately 150 2B Options between AA and the Majors and 0 SS options makes no sense.

edwards is more important. He has the type of bat and stolen base efficiency that you give every opportunity to improve and stick at SS. makes no sense to move him back to 2b right now when we know he can play there. give him the reps at SS and see what happens. it's early obviously, but his walk rate would be 4th in the league if he qualified. It's arraez lite plate discipline (many more k's but also many more walks) with more speed.

Norby has some good early returns. His words seem like he really doesnt want to play 3b but if he can get over it and be passable there, it gives some good versatility between him, edwards, then bride and burger as options on the corners, plus Serna making his way up in the system, plus Sanoja, etc. but they really need to see if one of these guys can stick at SS. Given how well edwards is hitting, i'd leave him at SS unless he is a complete albatross moving forward. his ability to provide offense at SS for us is more important than below average defense is bad for us. This team needs quality bats. figure out the defense later.

[Nick]

If they're really so enamored with Lopez's defense he should be playing SS. Having him as the every day 2B right now, when we have approximately 150 2B Options between AA and the Majors and 0 SS options makes no sense.

[lou]

I legitimately have no idea what you are talking about regarding championing nick gordon. I liked the move for him because he had a talented pedigree and okert sucked. I never penciled him in for a long term starter spot or a roster spot while he has a sub .600 ops. You talk about giving Otto lopez time as if he's had 50 ab's this year. the guy has 300 ab's this year, has no impressive minor league pedigree to think a breakout is coming, has been dfa'd twice by 2 good teams in a year, and has been 38% worse than a league average hitter. If you find that to be interesting you do you, it;s just going to be the next brujan.

Cabrera wasnt good yesterday. His FIP was close to 8 and XFIP close to 5.50. Walks matter. And even in non-walk ab's, consistently getting in hitter friendly counts matters. It's why he has been a thoroughly mediocre pitcher his entire career, and why he has a negative WAR this year and just 1.0 WAR for his career in over 250 innings. You talk about walks not making him ineffective- he has flatly been completely ineffective his entire career with the occasional start where he has good control and looks good. The vast majority of his career has been daniel cabrera level ineffective. You consistently bring up Meyer getting hit hard his 3rd time through the order when cabrera gets fucking demolished. Teams have an .830 OPS against him the second time through the order and a 1.329 OPS the third time through an order. Blake snell had bad control last year, and yet his walk rate is still under what cabrera's has been each of the last 2 years. He's also had a k/9 over 11 each of the last 7 years, and gives up .8 HR's per 9 compared to Cabrera's 1.79 per 9. Snell is the exception to the rule for walking too many guys, and yet his walk rate is still significantly lower than cabrera's for his career.

IDK if you guys have stockholm syndrome from watching Roddery Munoz and Shaun anderson and yonny chirinos and namaste's god sixto all year, but cabrera might be good in comparison to them, he's not good in comparison to the rest of the league.

Am I penciling in Otto as a "long term starter spot or a roster spot" - no.
Am I penciling Otto in as *probably* a safe keep on the 40 man roster and opens the year on the bench next year - yes.
Am I saying maybe Otto is really interesting if he can hit an upper .600 OPS? Yes.
Do I know if he can do that for real? No.
Did I say you penciled Gordon into a longterm spot? No
Did I say you liked the Gordon move due to pedigree? Yes
Did I say I agreed with that? Yes
Is it Ok to have a good idea and for it to not work? Yes

It's because Otto is showing 97th percentile defense and 86th sprint speed which suggests a defensive floor is real and he's able to beat out some weak contact, with an expected slash of .261/.294/.381. Brujan is a 9th percentile defender, 54th sprint speed, and his expected slash is .210/.296/.279. Look at the slugging potential. Maybe Otto never hits, but there is a massive defensive floor here and all he has to do is really be a .650 OPS hitter to have some value for years on the bench (especially if he plays some OK enough SS or CF/LF with even a tiny RHP split). Other guys have made that work - like Nico Hoerner, Dalton Varsho, and Anthony Volpe who are also similar all defense guys right now. Maybe Otto is something more than a bench guy. He's still young. Also this DFA thing is huh. This organization has gotten tremendous value with castoffs (Cody Ross, Dan Uggla) and sometimes these guys do work out. Look at Joey Bart right now who I think we all wanted to claim. He may not be able to field well, but that slash plays as he isn't overachieving much offensively. The Marlins are dopes for not claiming him, and he came from the same "good" organization as Otto. Do the Astros want Cronin and Bellozzo back from their DFAs? I bet they do. Given the Marlins other personnel, it's a no brainer to play Otto every day ROS and see what happens. Why are you so angry with me saying they should play Otto ROS pretty heavily based on some potential good omens and the Marlins lack of anyone else with this kind of upside? Do you like Hill, Pache, or Hensley more than him, or think it's worth burning a full year of service time of DDLS to play 30 games in a non-contending season? I choose Otto of these options. Burn me at the stake.

Also, I thought we weren't supposed to use WAR per talking about Cabrera here? But yes, Blake Snell is much better, but that's the wild starter comp. He doesn't need to be that good. If Cabrera can get to 75% of Snell, that's a 3/4 starter floor and he's cheap for years. Not every player in baseball is going to be this .775+ OPS hitter and sub 3.75 arm which seems to be the only guys you like. And I'm watching Munoz, Anderson, and Chirinos now? Or am I not watching them? Why are we talking about Shaun Anderson and Chiniros who I don't care about at all, although I get why they claimed Anderson as why not churn guys with big stuff. I think McMillion is a much more interesting project FWIW of a low control guy. I think they should pitch him hard and hope for a miracle as he has more upside (probably) than all these other RHP relievers they are churning. Munoz too but in a bullpen role as he will likely be to me a slider/fastball reliever if he makes it. Ultimately, I think you're wrong about Cabrera and I see him finally starting to piece it together. And that's OK? I think you should watch his start yesterday though and realize its 2 solo bombs the third time through the lineup, but he otherwise navigated the first two times through very well against the # 1 offense in baseball. See post above, the guy is a good pitcher 2 times through and I think he's having an "entering his prime" spurt right now to me and once they figure the right pitch mix, I can see him coming into his own in whatever role that lands. Maybe that's a 2 time bulk starter? Maybe that's a 2 IP reliever? Maybe that's a # 4 SP? Maybe that's a # 2 SP. We'll see, but he's a piece for years to me.

[lou]

The angriest poster in Marlins forum history says he’s not angry so therefore it must be true.

And just a total self-burial on the Edward Cabrera start today. Painfully obvious you didn’t watch his start today. “Another multi walk game”. Hahahaha wtf.

Yea I don't know what we are doing here at all. But if anyone is not aware, MLB has a truly awesome online presence when it comes to game footage.

https://www.mlb.com/marlins/video

This is what I am interested in ultimately - https://www.mlb.com/marlins/video/jo...C&cp=MIXED&p=0


I don't love Cabrera's declining K rate last few games, but it's a SSS and they are clearly working on his pitch mix so it's a wait and see. He is going to need to whiff some guys more than he is lately, but that's why I've been saying for weeks where's the slider and they finally let him throw a few yesterday for whatever development reason. He's looked dominant at times including for that middle stretch last night and I see flashes of a different pitcher emerging. Maybe it's not the breakout SP I want like him going full 2023 statcast and becoming a righty Snell, but there is some kind of improvement jump happening for me. I still maintain they should extend him in the 5/$22-25 range with an option or two on the back (that's what he would comp out with via his expected arbitration and guaranteeing that, and low-balling 1 FA year + options), and if he says no, you just say OK and just take him to arbitration. I don't know why we think that is expensive to offer and make a bet on, when that's effectively cheaper middle reliever prices for a guy who could become a total monster and this team has no payroll except Sandy, Luzardo, and maybe down the line Eury in 2028. I think he'd take it as his career earnings are maybe $2.5m including minor league salaries, and at best he's looking at that same number in arbitration next year. So call it if you're Cabrera $5m through 10 years as a professional and betting on yourself to improve down the line via un-guaranteed arbitration and get to FA at 31 years of age, or, accept a guaranteed $25m+ through 14-15 years of time and you're a FA at 32/33. I think that's hard to not take if you're Cabrera because floor $25m in baseball is what I would call a "fuck load of money" and he has been hurt often with obviously control problems. These guys probably all dream of the $100m contracts, but it's not going to happen for him for 4 years minimum so the Marlins are in an interesting position to raise his floor dramatically and just kick FA back 1-2 years. Compare this to Max who has already made $8m (big signing bonus via draft) so Max can more bet on himself as there is a big difference between $8m and $2.5m that these two have made so far, so he should be less inclined for a buyout (assuming he too starts flashing more than 1 pitch, etc.)

Cabrera also is getting drilled by the schedule. He just went through a very heavy stretch with ARI, @PHI, SDP, @ATL, @TB, BAL, NYM, and @CIN. That might be all playoff teams besides Tampa and CIN, and Cincy is an upper half offense and was away in their ballpark. The ROS is a little better, but kind of brutal too with @COL, @SF, PHI, @PIT, LAD, ATL, and @TOR if he keeps normal rest here on out. I'm super interested in seeing what happens and how the pitch mix evolves as frankly, despite being in the organization 9 years, he's going through a project phase right now and the new boss is trying some new things out. Also, let's pop this out (season numbers):

1st time through 32 IP, 9.28 K/9, xFIP 3.92
2nd time through 24.2 IP, 11.69 K/9, xFIP 3.86
3rd time through 8.2 IP 8.31 K/9, xFIP 5.31

Yes SSS. These xFIP projections don't track as heavy based on 2023 where he was low 4 everywhere, but his career (large SSS!) 1st / 2nd / 3rd time splits are xFIP 3.88 / 4.22 / 5.89. Carroll and Gurriel's solo bombs both third time through last night right on cue. Basically, he is an extremely low 4 era arm with what he has showed to date two times through which is pretty good. If a little control comes with age on top with similar GB rates/strikeouts, he will tick up quickly if not dramatically. For instance, his HR rate is comical this year and that'll claw back. I think you throw him to get the innings and work on stuff (i.e. it's project time) right now and who cares about the 3rd time through meltdowns in 2024, but when Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, and Weathers are back, and let alone Eury on top of that with maybe Snelling, Mazur, and others too, if things don't change with Cabrera, I think we all know he's going to become a 2 time through guy quickly. This is a piece the Rays know how to use and why I think this is exciting for us.