2023 Game Thread

[Nick]

Salvador has .1 WAR in 400 PA - he may be cooked. I agree finding a catcher is problematic.

To quib, if Sanchez/Garcia are both on the team that's 14 guys and wouldn't have room for that extra 1B/3B/OF (I do think positions would be covered with your insertion of Dane there so that's OK to me) and it is also 14 arms but that's easy with one of the last 3 RP going to AAA as they all have options.

Substantively, that is also A LOT of faith in Johnston, Edwards, and Myers there, especially if it is a young SS and/or C. I can't see them turnover over effectively 2,000-2,5000 PA to that much youth.

I'd say if you don't trust them to sign major bats at all and/or Bruce is cheap, maybe it's signing pitching. They could trade one of Rogers/Garrett/Cabrera and all of DLC/Fulton/Chargois for a C and SS, and sign a # 4 SP, Closer/high leverage RHP reliever, and platoon right handed OF and call it an offseason pretty quickly.

I wasn't saying we needed an extra, I was saying that's what Dane plays. I think his versatility will come in handy. And I also mentioned Maldonado or Soriano meaning one is sent to AAA, making 13.

So is Salvador's WAR based mostly on a decline in defense? Because his offensive numbers are down a little bit, but not a ton, and certainly a whole heck of a lot better than what we're throwing out there. Seems to me like catcher defensive metrics are volatile as hell. Remember when Stallings was supposed to be the best defensive catcher in the league when we got him?

[rmc523]

On a different note, I do not at all understand why they shifted to a 6pm trade deadline, and then have games an hour later?

The trade deadline day should be a day off for ALL teams, and allow new acquisitions to get to their new teams and not leaving teams in lineup limbo/short handed if they make moves.

[lou]

I wasn't saying we needed an extra, I was saying that's what Dane plays. I think his versatility will come in handy. And I also mentioned Maldonado or Soriano meaning one is sent to AAA, making 13.

So is Salvador's WAR based mostly on a decline in defense? Because his offensive numbers are down a little bit, but not a ton, and certainly a whole heck of a lot better than what we're throwing out there. Seems to me like catcher defensive metrics are volatile as hell. Remember when Stallings was supposed to be the best defensive catcher in the league when we got him?

Gotcha, my bad.

Perez was also a .5 WAR player last year in 473 PA. It's currently his last 869 PA is a .6 WAR. Defense down dramatically from 2013-2020 and if he doesn't have a .850 OPS like 2021, is pretty useless. It's defense and the bat dropping to low/mid .700 OPS land. Fortes is 2 WAR player for his career, 503 PA for perspective. I don't think he's the one. And yes I do remember that about Stallings and some scout in the Herald said "best he's seen since Johnny Bench." So maybe the lesson here is no 30+ year old catchers as they all cannot be trusted.

[lou]

On a different note, I do not at all understand why they shifted to a 6pm trade deadline, and then have games an hour later?

The trade deadline day should be a day off for ALL teams, and allow new acquisitions to get to their new teams and not leaving teams in lineup limbo/short handed if they make moves.

This is a good idea and they could do it on first Monday in August or something annually to set it on the worst attendance day. Maybe also use that as a rain makeup day as needed. I'm in.

[rmc523]

This is a good idea and they could do it on first Monday in August or something annually to set it on the worst attendance day. Maybe also use that as a rain makeup day as needed. I'm in.

It's stupid because we can't use Cooper or Segura (not that you'd want to), but also don't have our new lineup additions - meanwhile the Phils have their full team because they traded for a pitcher that wouldn't factor into the game anyway.

[lou]

It's stupid because we can't use Cooper or Segura (not that you'd want to), but also don't have our new lineup additions - meanwhile the Phils have their full team because they traded for a pitcher that wouldn't factor into the game anyway.

Can we also criticize the front office for not flying 1-2 warm bodies to the game in anticipation of some trades? Myers, Edwards, Amaya, Groshans, and Burdick can miss 1-2 AAA games. Jacksonville isn't far.

And I think we'd very much want Cooper getting that 8th inning pinch hit, although it goes back to Nick's point here - WTF is Hampson not pinch hitting if he's coming in anyways?

[sports24/7]

Yep, but here's the problem (and why we all yelled and screamed for a SS this last winter). Next year's FA isn't the best. Here's a truncated list.


Catcher: Mitch Garver, Yan Gomes (club option), Yasmani Grandal, Omar Narvaez, Mike Zunino

First base: Rhys Hoskins (if Bell opts-out), Brandon Belt, C.J. Cron

Shortstop: Tim Anderson (club option), Javier Baez (opt-out), Amed Rosario, Paul DeJong (club option), Adalberto Mondesi, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Joey Wendle

Third base: Matt Chapman, Justin Turner (opt-out), Brian Anderson

Outfield: Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto (opt-out), Teoscar Hernandez, Joey Gallo, Kevin Kiermaier, Joc Pederson (if Bell opts-out), Jorge Soler (opt-out - and if Bell opts-out),Harrison Bader,Andrew McCutchen, Charlie Blackmon, Michael Brantley, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha (club option), Adam Duvall, Randal Grichuk, Max Kepler (club option), Victor Robles (club option), Michael A. Taylor, Jesse Winker (if Bell opts-out)

Starting pitcher: Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Julio Urias, Eduardo Rodriguez (opt-out), Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman (opt-out), Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Lance Lynn (club option), Kenta Maeda, Charlie Morton (club option), Alex Cobb (club option), Kyle Hendricks (club option), Seth Lugo (player option), Rich Hill, Corey Kluber (club option), Hyun Jin Ryu, Luis Severino, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto (club option), Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger (mutual option), German Marquez (club option), Wade Miley (mutual option), Noah Syndergaard, Michael Wacha (club and player options), Andrew Heaney (opt-out), Tyler Mahle, Sean Manaea (opt-out), Frankie Montas, Ross Stripling (opt-out), Alex Wood

Relief pitcher: Josh Hader, Liam Hendriks (club option), Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, Jordan Hicks, Jose Alvarado, Andrew Chafin, Michael Fulmer, Jose Leclerc (club option), Alex Reyes (club option)


If the wish list is a C, SS, OF, and I'll say a RHP RP, I'm seeing something like Rosario and Grichuk being the best options here for what they usually spend. I can see them punting the longterm SS determination another year to see what Amaya, Nasim, and Cappe do and betting on a 28 year old resurgence for Rosario (whose been better since June 1). And then they'll have to trade pitching for a C as there are none and presumably RHP RP (they aren't spending big money on a RP IMO), and sign pitching to replace the pitching they moved, etc. I can see them doing something like moving Scott/Okert and Chargois (all of them are in arbitration so that saves money in theory) for a younger right hander ala trading Floro to get a year of control of Lopez. Maybe someone like Josh Sborz or Griffin Jax, and they do it because they get a lefty and second arm for their right hander which they have many of. Maybe a prospect too. I imagine Rogers/Garrett is the trade bait here for a catcher.

That would do this:

ROGERS/GARRETT TRADE, Fortes (Banfield)
Bell (Johnston)
Arraez, Edwards
ROSARIO FA (Amaya, Nasim)
Burger, Berti (Groshans)
GRICHUK OR BETTER FA, DLC (Myers)
Jazz (Mesa Jr)
Sanchez, Garcia (Burdick)
21 bats

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, 1 YEAR FA SP (Meyer)
Luzardo, Rogers/Garrett (Weathers)
RP TRADE, Lopez, Brazoban (Soriano, Bender, Hoeing, Maldonado, Sixto)
Puk, Scott/Okert, Nardi
19 arms (plus Monteverde and Fulton not on 40 man)

And Bruce can wow here with a more expensive OF (Bellinger, Bader) or SP on that list or maybe bring in a fancy RP on top of this and kick Brazoban to AAA and DFA one of the last guys, which is where I feel his wallet can make a real impact. There is just not much else out there for them to spend on in FA. But, I can see what they are doing with Bell, Burger, jettisoning Segura, Lopez, and swapping Weathers for Eder. This was a pretty smart plan, albeit ultimately lacking as they still need another bat upgrade. But maybe Garcia saves them.......

The good (or depressing) news is, almost anything they do at catcher is an upgrade. There aren’t a bunch of great catchers out there right now, so while it would be nice to get a good one, just getting one that doesn’t suck at everything would be ok if you upgrade at SS and in the OF. Between FA (Bellinger would be great) and trading a SP, you should be able to accomplish that. It would also be nice to see them try to re-sign Robertson as long as he’s not crazy expensive.

[fish16]

The good (or depressing) news is, almost anything they do at catcher is an upgrade. There aren’t a bunch of great catchers out there right now, so while it would be nice to get a good one, just getting one that doesn’t suck at everything would be ok if you upgrade at SS and in the OF. Between FA (Bellinger would be great) and trading a SP, you should be able to accomplish that. It would also be nice to see them try to re-sign Robertson as long as he’s not crazy expensive.

i think the move at C is to trade for one using a pitcher. Good catchers dont come on the open market, you can get a good to above average SS or corner OF in free agency, especially corner OF. C you are mostly getting retreads. Anything is really an improvement though. I cant see stallings anymore.

[lou]

i think the move at C is to trade for one using a pitcher. Good catchers dont come on the open market, you can get a good to above average SS or corner OF in free agency, especially corner OF. C you are mostly getting retreads. Anything is really an improvement though. I cant see stallings anymore.

Problem is who. Even a quick dive into this and the best names I am finding are Joey Bart, Andrew Knizner/Ivan Herrera, and Korey Lee (CHW have a better prospect but probably want both). And no one is proven there at all.

This is going to be hard for them to figure out. Maybe they can overwhelm Toronto for Jansen or Kirk, they get Mack in that deal as a second/third piece, and sign their own backup or take Stallings in the deal.

[Nick]

Just to summarize my thoughts on yesterday's deadline. Overall I'm pretty happy with it. Would've liked to have gotten an arm that can help us now. Weathers I have to believe will be a guy who only gets called upon due to injuries. I would've liked to have gotten more of a sure thing for Eder. I like Burger a lot, but I have to admit the strikeout rate + lack of track record do scare me with him. I really like the Cleveland Trade, we're buying low on Bell, but even at his worst I see him as a wash with Cooper and has the potential to be a big upgrade if he gets hot. Got rid of Segura that's a huge win. I see a bunch of people complaining about dealing Watson, but let's be honest, the guy has been a disaster in every way possible since we drafted him. Discipline issues, constantly injured, and not all that good when he does play. Maybe change of scenery he turns it around, but honestly, if we're ranking SS's in our system I'd have him behind Cappe, Nunez and Amaya. I've never been a fan of Cooper, he's a health liability, a defensive liability, and the bat is too inconsistent. Reynolds is a solid RP prospect, but that only has so much value, and I'm excited to see the attempted reclamation of Weathers. He's a guy I think the Padres pushed too fast, he went from Low-A ball to the majors in 2020. I think this was a disservice to him, and he's never gotten the opportunity to truly develop, I think he'll have that opportunity now, gonna get a lot of innings in AAA over the next 2 years I think, and reminder the guy is 14 months younger than Eder, so people can say oh Weathers has sucked, well Eder has never even had the opportunity to suck at the major league level as of yet, so we'll see how it all plays out. Someone mentioned how depleted our system is now, but honestly, I think I like the next 5 years of Burger and Weathers over the next 5 years of Eder, Watson and Reynolds, so I really don't think our future outlook took a hit at all. I think some more could've been done for specifically the 2023 push, if some more money was allocated for it, though.

[sports24/7]

Problem is who. Even a quick dive into this and the best names I am finding are Joey Bart, Andrew Knizner/Ivan Herrera, and Korey Lee (CHW have a better prospect but probably want both). And no one is proven there at all.

This is going to be hard for them to figure out. Maybe they can overwhelm Toronto for Jansen or Kirk, they get Mack in that deal as a second/third piece, and sign their own backup or take Stallings in the deal.

Yeah, that’s the thing. Maybe you can find a deal that works, but good catchers are more rare than good pitchers, so I’m not sure a team is going to want to move a ready-made, good catcher. And while you could trade for a prospect who is ready to come up, it’s so hard to project catchers that you’d be taking a gamble if you’re trading one of your young pitchers. I think it might be easier to trade for a SS who’s ready to come up.

[lou]

Just to summarize my thoughts on yesterday's deadline. Overall I'm pretty happy with it. Would've liked to have gotten an arm that can help us now. Weathers I have to believe will be a guy who only gets called upon due to injuries. I would've liked to have gotten more of a sure thing for Eder. I like Burger a lot, but I have to admit the strikeout rate + lack of track record do scare me with him. I really like the Cleveland Trade, we're buying low on Bell, but even at his worst I see him as a wash with Cooper and has the potential to be a big upgrade if he gets hot. Got rid of Segura that's a huge win. I see a bunch of people complaining about dealing Watson, but let's be honest, the guy has been a disaster in every way possible since we drafted him. Discipline issues, constantly injured, and not all that good when he does play. Maybe change of scenery he turns it around, but honestly, if we're ranking SS's in our system I'd have him behind Cappe, Nunez and Amaya. I've never been a fan of Cooper, he's a health liability, a defensive liability, and the bat is too inconsistent. Reynolds is a solid RP prospect, but that only has so much value, and I'm excited to see the attempted reclamation of Weathers. He's a guy I think the Padres pushed too fast, he went from Low-A ball to the majors in 2020. I think this was a disservice to him, and he's never gotten the opportunity to truly develop, I think he'll have that opportunity now, gonna get a lot of innings in AAA over the next 2 years I think, and reminder the guy is 14 months younger than Eder, so people can say oh Weathers has sucked, well Eder has never even had the opportunity to suck at the major league level as of yet, so we'll see how it all plays out. Someone mentioned how depleted our system is now, but honestly, I think I like the next 5 years of Burger and Weathers over the next 5 years of Eder, Watson and Reynolds, so I really don't think our future outlook took a hit at all. I think some more could've been done for specifically the 2023 push, if some more money was allocated for it, though.

Fully agree. My casual bar napkin surplus value analysis is $55m coming in for the Marlins, and $45m going out. So a slight move of the needle big picture for the franchise. Burger is a large portion of the incoming, and the outgoing is 2/3rds Eder with a little Watson/Vargas. I think they did good and I would not be surprised if Burger and Weathers are the best two players in all of these deals. I'd give the moves themselves an aggregate grade of an "A" as they are smart and mostly thrifty, but the overall deadline a "B" as they needed another bat, catcher, and to get to an A+, a luxury reliever upgrade.


I don't get the decimated farm argument at all. MLB service time by player + legitimate prospects.

C Fortes 5, Banfield 6, and yes they 100% need another one

1B Bell 1, Burger 5 (Im just gonna put him here as he'll be here in 2025), Johnston 6 (Is that dude for real right now? Look at AAA!), Berry 6

2B Arraez 2 (extension hello???), Edwards 6

SS Amaya and Nasim for 6 and yes they 100% need another one

3B Cappe 6, Groshans 6 (still on 40 man), and a little bit of Burger/Berti to bridge. Maybe Dane can play here too.

LF DLC 4, Myers 6

CF Jazz 3 (extension?), Mesa Jr 6

RF Sanchez 4, Garcia 3, Burdick 6 (he should be a lefty killer 5th OF ya know), and yes they 100% need another OF anywhere as a luxury upgrade

SP-RHP Sandy 4, Eury *6* (sorry not sorry IMO), Cabrera 5, Meyer 5 (DL time knocks him down) <---- LOVE LOVE LOVE

SP-LHP Luzardo 3 (extension hello???), Garrett 5, Rogers 3, Weathers 5, Fulton 6, Monteverde 6 <---- LOVE LOVE LOVE LOVE ONCE LUZARDO EXTENDED

RP-RHP - A ton of them with 5-6 years of control (Bender, Maldonado, Hoeing, etc.), but they do need to develop a high leverage killer. Maybe Sixto surprises or Cabrera/Meyer moves here longterm. I think one of those three probably do

RP-LHP Puk 3, Okert 3, Nardi 6, plus Scott with 1 more (extension?)


On a big picture level, they need to extend Luzardo, Arraez, and Eury, figure out what Jazz is and maybe extend him, and get a long term C and SS. They can probably go year to year with platoon OF/luxury relievers so while needs, I'm not sure that isn't annual Segura and Cueto 1 year free agents and stop messing them up.

So to the farm.....the farm is not going to be needed until 2026/2027 with how this roster is structured. This team is loaded and controlled just needing those bats. Who cares about the farm ranking. I bet the farm ranking is really good August 2025 when they haven't called up much in 2 calendar years from today.

[lou]

Fangraphs - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-tra...rs-and-losers/


Winner: Miami’s Strategy
Speaking of teams that understand their window, the Marlins were busy this week. They added a closer, a first baseman, a third baseman, and whatever role you want to assign to Ryan Weathers. They badly needed those corner infielders, and their bullpen could use some work too. The plan of “fix all our weaknesses and try to go make the playoffs” makes even more sense when you consider that they’ve only been there once since their 2003 World Series championship, and even that postseason trip was in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. When you’re the Marlins, you need to take your shots where you can.

Loser: Miami’s Tactics
But, uh, maybe not like this. The Marlins gave up some promising youngsters in the trade for Robertson. Marco Vargas in particular is a buzzy name in scouting circles, the kind of hitter who everyone thinks is the best kept secret to the point where the secret isn’t particularly well kept. The public-side prospect watchers I listen to the most all think the Mets got the better of that deal. And don’t even get me started on the first base situation. No one would disagree that the Marlins need help there; their first basemen have produced an anemic 96 wRC+ on the year, not exactly what you’d hope for from an offense-first position. Just one problem: Josh Bell, who they acquired from the Guardians, has a 95 wRC+.

That’s harsher to Bell than he deserves, which mirrors his batted ball luck this year. He’s making his customary loud contact and putting up good strikeout and walk numbers, but the power just hasn’t appeared. He also has a pretty horrendous .272 BABIP, especially vexing when you consider how many grounders and line drives he hits. Garrett Cooper, who Bell is replacing, had similar numbers but worse raw measurables; I think Bell is a small upgrade. To make that small upgrade, the Marlins took on roughly $9 million in salary across the next two years. They also sent out post-hype sleeper Kahlil Watson. Neither of those is a huge loss, but the net of the whole thing is baffling to me. Money and a prospect for a hitter who you’re hoping ends up 15% above average? Just trade for Canha or Pham for way less, or something like that.

In a deadline where bats were there for the taking, the Marlins overpaid. I don’t think their Jake Burger/Jake Eder swap was quite so bad, because they’re getting future years of control from Burger and Eder is a phenomenally risky prospect, but it’s a sign of the same thing that bothered me about the other trades. Sure, Burger will be around for longer than a rental, but you could plug a series of veterans into that role, and there’s no guarantee that Burger will be playable for his entire Miami tenure. The Marlins got half of the equation right – it’s time to go out and get some hitters and relievers – but then they went about it in a bizarre way.



I agree with them Vargas may hurt down the road, but they are underselling Bell IMO. That's a big upgrade. So is Burger. They got higher upside bats than the Phams and Canhas of the world, didn't give up much compared to them, and that is worth something with the control coming back. Weathers seems like the kind of guy they fix and is just great quickly. Also see above post the massive years of control where they have 4-5 years to replace Watson and Vargas.

[Nick]

Johnston is real lou, look at his numbers at every level.

[lou]

Johnston is real lou, look at his numbers at every level.

I know, but it is difficult for the entire scouting community to be so off on him. He has 40 grade power on MLB and they are typically generous. I do find this very interesting the bottom hasn't dropped out yet for him. Would love to see a better scouting report.