July 2021 Game Thread

[lou]

Really, this is such a no brainer for the Marlins to give Sandy that deal and front load it to a reasonable extent. I think then you low-ball Anderson (4/$28+) and Pablo (5/$32+) and if they take them, great. If they don't, just take them to arbitration and reassess next year. God willingly Jazz and Rogers are awesome in 2022 and we have to have a conversation about how the hell do we get them to sign 5 year deals with 2 club options

[Nick]

I'd be surprised if he accepted 5 years / $50 million. I'd go as high as 6-years / $100 million.

[lou]

I'd be surprised if he accepted 5 years / $50 million. I'd go as high as 6-years / $100 million.

5/$50 is more guaranteed money than Nola 2 years ago, and Nola was a lot better so that accounts for recent crazy salary inflation. I think he'd take it quickly (honestly, I may be over estimating and maybe $45 gets it done). I think the hang up will be the Marlins trying to get year 5 (or 6) as an option.

6/$100 is far too much. That resets the entire pitcher's market and I think that would make Sandy the richest pitcher of all time for the combination of his age, service time, and performance. Sandy is great, but he is not Sandy Koufax or even Stephen Strausburg. He'd take that for sure but they don't need to go there. They have him basically signed to a 3/$20-25 deal right now with arbitration (unless he really explodes). You don't just lop on around $75 million for 3 free agency years. That's basically paying full price when you have all the leverage with him being so far from free agency. That's just too much and defeats the purpose of doing an arbitration buyout. If Sandy's camp is insistent on a 6th year, it's probably 6/$70m range. That starts getting really scary for the Marlins though, but I'd probably do that at absolute absolute most. I think structuring that as say a 5/$50 deal, with year 6 being $5m buyout or $20m is how you'd do it.

[Nick]

5/$50 is more guaranteed money than Nola 2 years ago, and Nola was a lot better so that accounts for recent crazy salary inflation. I think he'd take it quickly (honestly, I may be over estimating and maybe $45 gets it done). I think the hang up will be the Marlins trying to get year 5 (or 6) as an option.

6/$100 is far too much. That resets the entire pitcher's market and I think that would make Sandy the richest pitcher of all time for the combination of his age, service time, and performance. Sandy is great, but he is not Sandy Koufax or even Stephen Strausburg. He'd take that for sure but they don't need to go there. They have him basically signed to a 3/$20-25 deal right now with arbitration (unless he really explodes). You don't just lop on around $75 million for 3 free agency years. That's basically paying full price when you have all the leverage with him being so far from free agency. That's just too much and defeats the purpose of doing an arbitration buyout. If Sandy's camp is insistent on a 6th year, it's probably 6/$70m range. That starts getting really scary for the Marlins though, but I'd probably do that at absolute absolute most. I think structuring that as say a 5/$50 deal, with year 6 being $5m buyout or $20m is how you'd do it.

You're probably right, I was thinking he'd be getting more in arbitration. Still I think I would try to get 6-7 years if we can, considering that'll be his age 31-32 season, still definitely prime years.

[lou]

You're probably right, I was thinking he'd be getting more in arbitration. Still I think I would try to get 6-7 years if we can, considering that'll be his age 31-32 season, still definitely prime years.

I think you definitely try to get years 5-6-7-8-forever as team options. You can't lose with those. You definitely start with a strong 4 year offer and 3 club options and see what comes back.

It's just balancing the present guarantee against what is his next contract gonna be. If I am his agent, I push hard for 4 years, set him up for life, and get him to free agency, settle for 5 years when that doesn't work, you better wow me for 6, and you better WOOOOOOOOW HOLY SHIT me for 7-8. That's with or without options for all years.

5 years is the sweet spot for everyone. If Sandy was older, this would be more problematic but he's at a great age for that deal where he can get an OOMPH payment and free agency in his prime. It's honestly the dream. Two big contracts.

[fish16]

You're probably right, I was thinking he'd be getting more in arbitration. Still I think I would try to get 6-7 years if we can, considering that'll be his age 31-32 season, still definitely prime years.

to me if I'm the marlins id need it to be 6 years unless a 5 year deal is too big of a value to pass up. He gets paid more the next 3 years that should be his arbitration years, he gets the financial security of a long term deal with the chance for 1 more contract after this one, and we lock him up for 3 more free agency years. 6-7 for 65-75 would be good with me. the question is if alcantrara takes the risk and plays out his team control to get an enormous contract in free agency in 3 years. Big risk there, but if he gets in the open market he can easily get a 150+ million deal if he stays healthy.

[lou]

to me if I'm the marlins id need it to be 6 years unless a 5 year deal is too big of a value to pass up. He gets paid more the next 3 years that should be his arbitration years, he gets the financial security of a long term deal with the chance for 1 more contract after this one, and we lock him up for 3 more free agency years. 6-7 for 65-75 would be good with me. the question is if alcantrara takes the risk and plays out his team control to get an enormous contract in free agency in 3 years. Big risk there, but if he gets in the open market he can easily get a 150+ million deal if he stays healthy.

I don't disagree with you a 28 year old Sandy pumping 180+ innings at 4+ WAR gets a floor 7/$150 deal. Could be exponentially more in the $185-225m range if he's better and with how salaries may go in a few years, plus the possibility some of that is deferred. However that's a best case scenario and a small chance of happening.

Securing 2 free agent years is great. Loria/Samson/Hill had a "policy" they must get 3 free agency years or they wouldn't do a deal. That's BS and stupid. Getting 2 is great value (provided at discounts from a FA estimate), 3 is great, 4 is out of this world. I think you draw the hard line at you need 2 free agency years. If they won't do it you take him to arbitration.

I think 6 years with an arm is risky. I'm at the 5/$45-55 range, and a 6th year has to be an option. If it is somehow a dealbreaker, I think they can go to 6/$65m, but I honestly think they'd prefer the 5/$50 deal and get to free agency faster to try and get that $150m deal in 2027. He can get that at 30 years old. He can at 31 also but it'll just be harder with more mileage. He may be a big innings guy. Really another reason for him to take the money.

I just can't see a guy who quit school in early high school to play baseball and has been doing it non stop for 10 years, passes up generational wealth this offseason when it can all go away with a blown arm. He sees it happening to other pitchers. He's not a bat like Lindor or Tatis. Or gets screwed by the arbitration process like a catcher (cough Realmuto). Once this gets into the $40s of millions of dollars over 4-5 years, he's not selling himself short with that deal, cashes in for life, his grandkids are rich, and keeps that second contract open if he stays healthy and holds up.

This is going to happen. This makes too much sense for everyone. I'm 85% confident Sandy gets a 5 year deal, 10% confident it's 6 (with or without options), and 5% it doesn't get done because the Marlins are just insanely stupid.

[Nick]

$9/$9/$9/$9/$18/Team option $18 ($3 mil buyout)/ Team option $18 ($3 mil buyout)

Sandy gets a guaranteed 5 year / $57 million. Marlins get a 6th and 7th year at a reasonable price if Alcantara is still a top of the rotation guy.

[fish16]

$9/$9/$9/$9/$18/Team option $18 ($3 mil buyout)/ Team option $18 ($3 mil buyout)

Sandy gets a guaranteed 5 year / $57 million. Marlins get a 6th and 7th year at a reasonable price if Alcantara is still a top of the rotation guy.

something along those lines seems to make sense for both sides. if I'm the marlins though, 6 years at least needs to be the priority in a contract discussion. 6-7 at a figure that makes sense for both sides has a chance to really be a smart deal and reasonable move for both sides. there's no question he's earned it, the only question as of now is whether he will get it from us.

[fish16]

jesus sanchez is really good.

[lou]

$9/$9/$9/$9/$18/Team option $18 ($3 mil buyout)/ Team option $18 ($3 mil buyout)

Sandy gets a guaranteed 5 year / $57 million. Marlins get a 6th and 7th year at a reasonable price if Alcantara is still a top of the rotation guy.

I don't think there is any way they'd agree to a 7th year option. But Sandy would sign 5/$54 with a 6th year $3bo/$18, for overall 5/$57 or 6/$72 very quickly.

They won't need to go that far IMO. That smokes Nola's money and Nola was better at the time.

[lou]

Also remember when the Marlins drafted Kolek and not Nola (and Rodon and Schwarber) in the 2014 draft. Fun.

[Namaste]

Anthony Bass is my least favorite Marlin since Heath Bell

[fish16]

Also remember when the Marlins drafted Kolek and not Nola (and Rodon and Schwarber) in the 2014 draft. Fun.

the mlb draft is a crap shoot but that didn't make sense at the time and I'm not sure its possible for a 2nd overall pick to have been a bigger failure. at no point in his career was he anywhere close to being effective. But he threw fast and that's what mattered to the old regime.

[fish16]

Jesus sanchez has had ups and downs but with a .787 OPS and truly impressive power I feel comfortable penciling him in at one of the corner outfield spots to start next year. .787 OPS in the majors this year, the at bats look good, and obviously the HR numbers are nice but the actual hr's themselves are absolute bombs. the one he hit out to deep center over the weekend was absurd. I saw it went 460 ft, which was the 17th longest hr in marlins history but also had the 4th highest exit velocity in marlins history since that's been tracked. Looking forward to seeing what he becomes over time.

Also, obviously want to see cabrera with more success but I think this will end up helping him for next year. Just like rogers getting a taste of the bigs last year helped him be more ready for this year, I can see these struggles helping him be more ready for the start of next year.