July 2021 Game Thread

[Namaste]

Cabrera is having a meltdown in the top of the 3rd inning.

[Madman81]

Cabrera is having a meltdown in the top of the 3rd inning.

sny crew was utterly perplexed at us calling almost exclusively off speed pitches for him. i don't really get it either.

[lou]

Cabrera is having a meltdown in the top of the 3rd inning.

Maybe we shouldn't pencil him in for 180 innings next year like someone thinks is going to happen. Maybe, just maybe, they should bring him in solely over 20-25 reliever appearances with innings escalating as they go before seeing if he can be handed a rotation spot next August. And to not add too many innings to a young arm to cause an injury?

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo/Sixto, Hernandez/Cabrera
Bender, Floro, Bass, Thompson, Bleier, Sixto, Cabrera, New Lefty

Looks great. That depth chart is awesome. Let those 4 guys (and Thompson, who they seem to have moved to the pen already) battle for the most bulk starter innings.

I think I'm of the opinion right now (and this waivers) is to trade something like Meyer, Bleday, Nicolas/McCambley, and one of the secondary hitter prospects (Nunez, Encarnacion, Lewis, maybe even Burdick) for something like Ketel/C. Kelly or Reynolds/Stallings. Arizona and Pitt are total burn downs so they will want prospects and not Pablo. Those are both stud hitters to get and very serviceable catchers showing big upside this year. Everyone is on a cheap deals or arbitration for years, so you can make an OOMPH signing with Marte still, or someone like Bryant, Correa (ideally), Seager, Story. Whoever. They would look awesome and it would be a $80-90m team. That's a bottom third payroll and every pitcher listed above is controlled in 2023 besides Bass and Bleier.

[rmc523]

Maybe we shouldn't pencil him in for 180 innings next year like someone thinks is going to happen. Maybe, just maybe, they should bring him in solely over 20-25 reliever appearances with innings escalating as they go before seeing if he can be handed a rotation spot next August. And to not add too many innings to a young arm to cause an injury?

Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo/Sixto, Hernandez/Cabrera
Bender, Floro, Bass, Thompson, Bleier, Sixto, Cabrera, New Lefty

Looks great. That depth chart is awesome. Let those 4 guys (and Thompson, who they seem to have moved to the pen already) battle for the most bulk starter innings.

I think I'm of the opinion right now (and this waivers) is to trade something like Meyer, Bleday, Nicolas/McCambley, and one of the secondary hitter prospects (Nunez, Encarnacion, Lewis, maybe even Burdick) for something like Ketel/C. Kelly or Reynolds/Stallings. Arizona and Pitt are total burn downs so they will want prospects and not Pablo. Those are both stud hitters to get and very serviceable catchers showing big upside this year. Everyone is on a cheap deals or arbitration for years, so you can make an OOMPH signing with Marte still, or someone like Bryant, Correa (ideally), Seager, Story. Whoever. They would look awesome and it would be a $80-90m team. That's a bottom third payroll and every pitcher listed above is controlled in 2023 besides Bass and Bleier.

I definitely agree with the "take it slow" approach to the young arms.

[lou]

I definitely agree with the "take it slow" approach to the young arms.

Yes it's the obviously approach.

Also, is Okert actually pretty good? It's a really nice development if he is.

[Nick]

I'm just not sure how taking it slow is going to work out at the major league level. Especially considering Mattingly is still the manager. Giving Mattingly a bunch of qualifiers on arms that are taking up spots in the bullpen on when and how they can be used seems like a recipe for disaster. AKA Floro's arm will fall off.

[fish16]

sandy needs to be signed to an extension before next spring training. there's nothing else to see. if you can sign him for 5 or 6 years, taking out his last 3 arbitration years and then 2-3 more free agent years for a reasonable price there is no excuse for that not to be done by spring training. i would have no hesitation for 6 years for 70-75.

They absolutely nailed taking him and gallen as the 2 pitchers in the ozuna trade when I really didn't love it, especially sandy as the front liner instead of luke weaver and jack flaherty. goes to show those team rankings should be taken with a grain of salt or at least not as the end all be all.

[fish16]

I'm just not sure how taking it slow is going to work out at the major league level. Especially considering Mattingly is still the manager. Giving Mattingly a bunch of qualifiers on arms that are taking up spots in the bullpen on when and how they can be used seems like a recipe for disaster. AKA Floro's arm will fall off.

completely agree. Im not saying there isn't some sort of smart way to bring cabrera and sixto along while monitoring their innings next year, I just have 0 trust in Mattingly to pull it off in a way that I know a team like the rays would. On a quick aside, as mentioned before, whoever put the contract clause for Mattingly that the option for next year had to be decided midseason was a moron. They put themselves in a terrible spot to make that decision. If his option was post season, would he be back next year?

I would just rather put the talent in the rotation and then just let it play out. we always talk about these situations and generally by the end of spring there is an injury or a performance that makes the decision obvious and the group of 5 rotation guys is common sense with maybe.1 tough decision..

With no trades, which there will be, we have 3 proven major leaguers who will assuredly be in the rotation barring a trade in Sandy, Rogers, and Pablo. Then to me you have Sixto in a league of his own as the 4 guy in the rotation if he can throw a baseball. I don't think there can be any excuse for that talent not being in the rotation if he's healthy. I don't put a talent like that in the bullpen until I have no other choice due to injury. I think people forget just how ridiculous his stuff is and just how impressive he was as a rookie. He needs to be in the rotation. Then to me #5 should be a Thompson/Elierser combo. Every 5th day, you give them each 4 or 5 innings and see if you can 8 great combined innings out of your 5th spot. I think that combo being used to their strengths for no more than 5 innings/2 times through the order max would be a great combination.

Then the next in line are the prospects to cover for injury or if one of them is traded-Luzardo, Cabrera, Meyer, Nicolas, Mccambley, Garrett, Neidert, Don't over think it, You put the 5 best guys in the rotation, manage innings for each guy that concerns us as the year goes along or give spot starts to keep it easy on certain guys innings. You talk about injuries in the rotation and innings limits but to me the injury risk is higher if you jerk them around from starter to reliever and get them out of a 5 day routine. Spend 10-15 million on 2-3 good relievers and then trot out your best 5 rotation pieces.

[fish16]

Sandy outside of 2 starts in Colorado and LA has a 2.40 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 172 k's, 44 walks, in 176.2 Innings.

[Namaste]

That was a REALLY fun game to watch wow. DLC had ice in his veins. What’s a realistic price tag on a Sandy extension? It would be foolish not to get it done in the next 6 months

[lou]

That was a REALLY fun game to watch wow. DLC had ice in his veins. What’s a realistic price tag on a Sandy extension? It would be foolish not to get it done in the next 6 months

Nola signed 2 years ago at the same service time/basically same age a 4/$45m extension, with a club option to make it 5/$56.75. He had overall 13.8 WAR through his first 3+ seasons prior to signing. The year prior to signing 5.5 WAR. He was a beast.

Sandy has 6.8 WAR through his first 3+ seasons, most recent season 3.5 WAR and counting. Sandy is ascending quickly.

So Nola is significantly better than Sandy short and longterm, but Sandy is proving to be awesome right now and it'll be 3 offseasons later so some inflation is reasonable. The good bargaining news here for the Marlins is based on historical comps, they can probably do well in arbitration with Sandy at least for the 2022 season. That'll push "real" money down the road a bit so Sandy has more incentive to sign a buyout as he's not going to get the amazing tender for a season.

I think you start with 4/$45 and tac on 2 options to get the deal to 6/$70. That would he extremely club friendly and makes Sandy a free agent at 31 so he can get another deal if he's still great. But if I'm the agent, I want him a free agent faster (obviously), so it's some permutation of the Marlins wanting the Nola deal, versus guaranteeing the 5th year. Either works for sure at these prices.

The sweet spot is 5/$50+ million fully guaranteed. I think everyone is thrilled with that. If the Marlins can get year 5 as an option, or tac on a year 6 option, that's high fives all around.

[lou]

Also, the should be smart and front load that as a further incentive to sign. Do something like $13-12-12-$8-5

Rogers and Jazz hit arbitration in that second $12 and they might be a lot, and presumably Sixto, Cabrera, Sanchez, and maybe others like Bleday, Meyer, Lewin, etc. on the $8.

Deflect that payroll.

[fish16]

Also, the should be smart and front load that as a further incentive to sign. Do something like $13-12-12-$8-5

Rogers and Jazz hit arbitration in that second $12 and they might be a lot, and presumably Sixto, Cabrera, Sanchez, and maybe others like Bleday, Meyer, Lewin, etc. on the $8.

Deflect that payroll.

I doubt sandy would accept that. I would go 7 years 70 million or around that area if he is willing to take that. I wouldn't be shocked though if he holds off and just waits till free agency and pushes our hand to make a decision on his future here. I think if he stays healthy until free agency, which granted is a big if, he will get an enormous contract. So he's gonna just have to weigh the risk/reward of more money up front and a guaranteed long term deal but less money potentially over the course of the entire deal than he may be able to get in free agency in 3 years.

He's absolutely worth it though. He's right up there with josh johnson and behind jose in terms of guys we've had since beckett in 03. Just dominant, consistent, and an absolute horse in the rotation every 5th day.

[Nick]

What a freaking bomb by Jazz.

[lou]

I doubt sandy would accept that. I would go 7 years 70 million or around that area if he is willing to take that. I wouldn't be shocked though if he holds off and just waits till free agency and pushes our hand to make a decision on his future here. I think if he stays healthy until free agency, which granted is a big if, he will get an enormous contract. So he's gonna just have to weigh the risk/reward of more money up front and a guaranteed long term deal but less money potentially over the course of the entire deal than he may be able to get in free agency in 3 years.

He's absolutely worth it though. He's right up there with josh johnson and behind jose in terms of guys we've had since beckett in 03. Just dominant, consistent, and an absolute horse in the rotation every 5th day.

7/$70 is a significantly worse deal than 5/$50 range for Sandy. He's giving away 4 prime years for approximately $45-50 million bucks (I am estimating his 3 year arbitration around $20-25m depending on what he does and how healthy he stays). I can't imagine a scenario where he is valuing so many of those free agency years at $11.25-$12.5m. It does happen (see the outrageous Ozzie Albies contract who got radically taken advantage of), but I don't think we bank on that scenario. More importantly though, it pushes his free agency to age 32 season versus age 30. The chance of getting that second mega-deal is significantly lower at that age (see S. Marte who is going to claw for a 4th year and probably settle for 3 this offseason. That's been discussed enough).

You could be right and he's willing to risk his health to arbitration, but there is always a number for everyone. Personally, I think a kid who dropped out of high school in the Dominican to play baseball isn't passing up a real pay day as long as it is in line with market expectations. He's made it. This is his moment right now. I don't see how he gambles on health to make $5m bucks in 2022 if the Marlins step up to the plate with $45-50m guaranteed for 5 years and he can be a free agent at 30 years old. Especially if there is some front loading, which makes sense for everybody. That is generational wealth today, without giving up the opportunity to go for it again in 5 years. What more can anyone ask for?

Frankly, Fernandez and Johnson are great on and off the field comps here. Both amazing pitchers. Johnson made $50.5m over 10 seasons in the bigs. This idea above is Sandy beating that total in 9 seasons, but guaranteeing that at the end of year 4. Johnson didn't get his extension (4/$39) until the end of year 5 (to note, it's very arguable Johnson was a better pitcher than Sandy at the stage of the career they are at, so even with inflation, Johnson should have been making more). That all makes sense to me. Fernandez.... we'll just say it would have been nice for his family if he got that initial signing bonus on a mega deal.

Sandy's agency is going to want 4 years and try to get that close to $40m guaranteed. The Marlins clearly will want 6-7 with club options for the last 2 years. They'll settle at 5 once the posturing is all over, and I think the real fight will be is year 5 a club option and if it is, what's the overall guarantee.

If you're thinking 7 years for Sandy, I think it's a 7/$100 floor. They have no reason to sign away Sandy's free agency prime unless Marlins go to triple digits. You're going to have to pay to not let the man go to free agency in his prime.