July 2021 Game Thread

[fish16]

Yes they are going to turn starters into relievers. Remember when this annoyed you last week?

BTW, given inning workloads based on a lost 2020 and performance/injuries in 2021, this is probably what guys can throw next year. I'm a firm believer guys shouldn't have a massive uptick in innings when this young (and off injury). Besides Sandy, these guys need to survive the year and then can be looking at big workloads in 2023 if they can handle it.

Sandy - as many as he can handle
Rogers - 150+ IP
Pablo - 150 IP
Luzardo - 150 IP
Thompson - 125+ IP
Hernandez - 125+ IP
Sixto - 125 IP
Cabrera - 125 IP
Meyer - 125 IP

Assuming Pablo is traded for a mega bat (and lefty reliever), I think I'd open the year with (even better if Pablo is retained obviously assuming the fix bats):

Sandy
Rogers
Hernandez
Luzardo
Thompson

And have Sixto and Cabrera be on a pretty consistent schedule to throw 2+ innings (1 time through lineup) every 3-4 days in April (basically, target the Hernandez and Thompson starts), bump it up to 3-4 innings in late May, and start stretching them out for 6 innings in July.

Think of this as treating Sixto and Cabrera as the average of Johan Santana 2002/2003 seasons. Minnesota was smart AF how they developed him. This is Sixto/Cabrera throwing approx 130 IP, 15 starts, 20 other appearances next year. This makes the most sense to me based on where they are at and the Marlins needing their best arms in the bigs day 1.

We don't want these guys burning out in September when god willingly games matter. It's going to be a mission to juggle this, but it'll pay dividends keeping everyone super fresh. I think you are under the incorrect assumption these guys can project to be 180 IP. None of them can except Sandy.

if I'm being as honest as possible, I cant think of anything possibly dumber to start next year than sacrificing cabrera and sixto for 2-4 innings out of the bullpen every few games from April-july for the purpose of throwing elieser fucking Hernandez and journeyman zach thompson for 4 innings and 1 shitty inning every 5 days. Imagine having the SP surplus we have that is ML ready and throwing Hernandez, Thompson, and Luzardo (when he hasn't been corrected yet) for 3/5 of games. that is about as short-sighted and idiotic as it gets for me. You talk about having them when it counts in September, but you will never in any world get to September in contention while you throw those types of guys out other than rogers and sandy 3/5 of the games. You worry about burning them out come September. If the worst case scenario is that you have 3 SP in your lock down rotation who have unbelievable futures who just made it from april till mid august with no injuries that you have to find a way to proceed until the end of the year while you're trying to compete, so be it. Or you limit their innings throughout the year and push them past their limit come September. the goal is to compete next year. to do so, you make the rotation of Sandy, Rogers, Sixto, Cabrera, and Meyer (or elieser and zach thompson until meyer's service time isn't impacted) work and then you figure out the rest come the end of the year if in an ideal world you are in contention. Limiting Cabrera and Sixto for no fucking reason whatsoever, especially at the fucking major league level, and then not only not starting them but doing so for elieser Hernandez and journeyman destined for a regression to the mean in zach Thompson, is unbelievably dumb.

[fish16]

I'm counting 29 guys on the current 40-man roster that you have to protect and 15 guys on the current 40-man who could be kicked off right now and nobody would care. 10 spots seems like it would be sufficient to protect the minor league players that needed to be protected and fill the rest of the roster with trades and Free Agency, if they wanted to call up Meyer.

That being said, Ng has said emphatically that we won't see Meyer this year, and I would expect they stick to that.

absolutely, I don't expect them to call him up at all at this point based off what they say. all I'm saying is, based on the current 40 man roster and what needs to be protected for next year, to worry at this point about a fucking 40 man roster spot for max meyer is idiotic given what they've felt the need to protect the last few years. you can bicker about service time, but bickering about putting meyer on the 40 man right now is fucking dumb as hell.

[rmc523]

because meyer on the 40 man isn't gonna be the issue. the issue will be his service time on the ML roster. If you give him a couple starts to get knocked around to end the year and have him get a head start on the lumps he's gonna take in the majors, you'll ideally save some issues when he makes his next major league appearances in the middle of next year when you will theoretically be trying to compete. Same thing with rogers this year/last year and a lot of others. You give him the 15 days to end the year and get 3 starts at the major league level, then delay those 15 days whenever that service time cutoff come next year, you get both the benefit of the experience of him facing major league hitters and figuring out some stuff in a lost year at the major league level, and you get the added benefit of losing just 15 days next year of ML service time without having an impact on his clock. If it means having to sacrifice one of the guys they have shown they care about being on the 40 man roster like sierra going into next year, who gives a flying fuck. Im not saying bring up meyer and say fuck it for the extra year of service time you get by delaying him. Im saying bring him up for some ML experience, delay his service time by 15 or whatever amount of days it will cost in the middle of next year, and live with the 1 guy like sierra or guenther, etc. that it will cost to do so. To me, the added benefit of a few ML starts for a guy like Meyer is worth losing a worthless "40 man roster guy" going into next year.

like give me a fucking break, god forbid we lose guys on our 40 man roster for next year like guenther, paul Campbell, Austin pruitt, steven okert, sandy leon, detwiler, joe panik, or sierra or brian miller. The added benefit for next years team of Meyer getting some ML experience for 15 days heading into next year is well worth the fringe 40 man roster guy they will lose. Especially if the goal is to go all in to compete next year like we all hope for.

One thing I'd be hesitant about service time right now is with the CBA talks coming in the offseason - who knows what they're going to do there regarding service time. I'd be cautious with anyone too young with that question mark looming.

[rmc523]

if I'm being as honest as possible, I cant think of anything possibly dumber to start next year than sacrificing cabrera and sixto for 2-4 innings out of the bullpen every few games from April-july for the purpose of throwing elieser fucking Hernandez and journeyman zach thompson for 4 innings and 1 shitty inning every 5 days. Imagine having the SP surplus we have that is ML ready and throwing Hernandez, Thompson, and Luzardo (when he hasn't been corrected yet) for 3/5 of games. that is about as short-sighted and idiotic as it gets for me. You talk about having them when it counts in September, but you will never in any world get to September in contention while you throw those types of guys out other than rogers and sandy 3/5 of the games. You worry about burning them out come September. If the worst case scenario is that you have 3 SP in your lock down rotation who have unbelievable futures who just made it from april till mid august with no injuries that you have to find a way to proceed until the end of the year while you're trying to compete, so be it. Or you limit their innings throughout the year and push them past their limit come September. the goal is to compete next year. to do so, you make the rotation of Sandy, Rogers, Sixto, Cabrera, and Meyer (or elieser and zach thompson until meyer's service time isn't impacted) work and then you figure out the rest come the end of the year if in an ideal world you are in contention. Limiting Cabrera and Sixto for no fucking reason whatsoever, especially at the fucking major league level, and then not only not starting them but doing so for elieser Hernandez and journeyman destined for a regression to the mean in zach Thompson, is unbelievably dumb.

Weren't you the one praising Thompson and penciling him in for a spot just a few days ago?

[lou]

if I'm being as honest as possible, I cant think of anything possibly dumber to start next year than sacrificing cabrera and sixto for 2-4 innings out of the bullpen every few games from April-july for the purpose of throwing elieser fucking Hernandez and journeyman zach thompson for 4 innings and 1 shitty inning every 5 days. Imagine having the SP surplus we have that is ML ready and throwing Hernandez, Thompson, and Luzardo (when he hasn't been corrected yet) for 3/5 of games. that is about as short-sighted and idiotic as it gets for me. You talk about having them when it counts in September, but you will never in any world get to September in contention while you throw those types of guys out other than rogers and sandy 3/5 of the games. You worry about burning them out come September. If the worst case scenario is that you have 3 SP in your lock down rotation who have unbelievable futures who just made it from april till mid august with no injuries that you have to find a way to proceed until the end of the year while you're trying to compete, so be it. Or you limit their innings throughout the year and push them past their limit come September. the goal is to compete next year. to do so, you make the rotation of Sandy, Rogers, Sixto, Cabrera, and Meyer (or elieser and zach thompson until meyer's service time isn't impacted) work and then you figure out the rest come the end of the year if in an ideal world you are in contention. Limiting Cabrera and Sixto for no fucking reason whatsoever, especially at the fucking major league level, and then not only not starting them but doing so for elieser Hernandez and journeyman destined for a regression to the mean in zach Thompson, is unbelievably dumb.

Remember when the Marlins had Johnson, Anibal, and Nolasco, they looked great, and everyone got hurt. Literally Girardi pitched them into the ground, including insane rain delays. You have extensively criticized mattinglys pitching strategy and use before. So now you want to let him throw guys with their arms not built up? I don’t see a consistent position for you here. You’re really short sighted and caught up in prospect rankings versus seeing a big picture. And this is ignoring Sixto and Cabrera won’t have a combined 100 innings in 2021 and you expect those guys to throw 3-4 times that amount? Not gonna happen. Talk about setting yourself up longterm for failure. They both will get hurt in 23/24 if they survive the year

There are very legitimate reasons to limit their innings next year. 125, maybe 140 if there are bunches of low stress innings. You can be in denial if you choose though and just think the Marlins prospects are special and defy human conditioning. I’m assuming neither is a freak like Verlander.

If you want to say, let them throw gas and shut the down in August that’s one thing. But given two major injuries and low workloads for 2 years, I’d prefer to bring them along slowly. I’m guessing you are too young to understand what Minnesota did with Johan. Their fans were screaming to let him lose but they were smart and built up his innings putting him in the pen as he was too good to keep in the minors and then moving him over to the rotation midseason for TWO years. This has everything to do with developing Cabrera and Sixto and nothing to do with guys like Hernandez and Thompson. They are just solid dudes that bridge the gap to more innings for the hopefully better guys who physically can’t throw that much yet. It’s a testament to their depth they have those guys as legit 4/5 starters versus having to really rely on a poteet or Neidert.

950 IP is a sweet spot target for your rotation. If Sandy/Rogers are 350, and you get another 400 out of Luzardo, Sixto, and Cabrera, you did something really right (I am counting sixto/Cabrera being planned openers or whatever here for the record). Your depth really shines if you can give the rest of the innings to a collection of Pablo (if they keep him), Thompson, Hernandez, and Meyer. Anyway that shakes out you’re in major major business. There is no “sacrifice” here. This is how you spread out a staff to give appropriate innings to everyone and keep everyone healthy.

[gustavopim]

Remember when the Marlins had Johnson, Anibal, and Nolasco, they looked great, and everyone got hurt. Literally Girardi pitched them into the ground, including insane rain delays. You have extensively criticized mattinglys pitching strategy and use before. So now you want to let him throw guys with their arms not built up? I don’t see a consistent position for you here. You’re really short sighted and caught up in prospect rankings versus seeing a big picture. And this is ignoring Sixto and Cabrera won’t have a combined 100 innings in 2021 and you expect those guys to throw 3-4 times that amount? Not gonna happen. Talk about setting yourself up longterm for failure. They both will get hurt in 23/24 if they survive the year

There are very legitimate reasons to limit their innings next year. 125, maybe 140 if there are bunches of low stress innings. You can be in denial if you choose though and just think the Marlins prospects are special and defy human conditioning. I’m assuming neither is a freak like Verlander.

If you want to say, let them throw gas and shut the down in August that’s one thing. But given two major injuries and low workloads for 2 years, I’d prefer to bring them along slowly. I’m guessing you are too young to understand what Minnesota did with Johan. Their fans were screaming to let him lose but they were smart and built up his innings putting him in the pen as he was too good to keep in the minors and then moving him over to the rotation midseason for TWO years. This has everything to do with developing Cabrera and Sixto and nothing to do with guys like Hernandez and Thompson. They are just solid dudes that bridge the gap to more innings for the hopefully better guys who physically can’t throw that much yet. It’s a testament to their depth they have those guys as legit 4/5 starters versus having to really rely on a poteet or Neidert.

950 IP is a sweet spot target for your rotation. If Sandy/Rogers are 350, and you get another 400 out of Luzardo, Sixto, and Cabrera, you did something really right (I am counting sixto/Cabrera being planned openers or whatever here for the record). Your depth really shines if you can give the rest of the innings to a collection of Pablo (if they keep him), Thompson, Hernandez, and Meyer. Anyway that shakes out you’re in major major business. There is no “sacrifice” here. This is how you spread out a staff to give appropriate innings to everyone and keep everyone healthy.

I honestly don't expect anything smart from the front office lol. Just see the way they've treated Lewin Diaz and other prospects with the up and down all year.

[gustavopim]

Fish Stripes
6 starts for Sandy Alcantara in August. Remove the Coors Field disaster and here's what he did in the other 5: 36.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 7 BB, 47 K

[lou]

I honestly don't expect anything smart from the front office lol. Just see the way they've treated Lewin Diaz and other prospects with the up and down all year.

They seem to have a handle on the pitching so I am hopeful. If the plan is to try and throw Sixto and Cabrera 170 innings next year, I hope they win the world series as they are going to break down very quickly after that. Johan Santana is really the model here. The Twins nailed in in 02/03. It was very ahead of the times and can't believe that was 20 years ago at this point. Sixto and Cabrera are too good not to be on the club, but not built enough to throw a full load, so you make it work.

The staff needs 1440 IP next year on paper. I think something like this is very realistic (this is a non-Pablo scenario):

Sandy	200
Rogers	165
Luzardo	140
Sixto	130
Cabrera	130
Hernandez	110
Thompson	100
Floro	65
Bender	65
Bass	60
Bleier	50
Meyer	25
	1240

Aquire another bullpen lefty (a real need), and you're now basically giving 140ish garbage time innings to Poteet/Neidert/Garrett/Guenther/others who go up and down. That's really amazing depth.

And imagine if they just keep Pablo here and can solve the bats trading others/free agency money. This is the envy of baseball throwing amazing arms in waves and only Sandy and sometimes Rogers (and maybe Pablo) gets a lineup 3 times through.

[Namaste]

Oh wow I just realized the Marlins lost the first game yesterday. I just assumed they won being up 5-1 late in the game. Looking forward to another year of Mattingly!

[rmc523]

One thing I'd be hesitant about service time right now is with the CBA talks coming in the offseason - who knows what they're going to do there regarding service time. I'd be cautious with anyone too young with that question mark looming.

And just like that, articles are coming out regarding MLB's proposal to service time changes. I don't see the union going for it with a straight age limitation, but here are some details with a lot more a the link. I could see them wanting both the age and some sort of "years after debut" limitation for players that get called up earlier.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...structure.html



Major League Baseball proposed a radical altering of the league’s service time structure in collective bargaining discussions with the MLB Players Association last month, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The league’s proposal included an offer to make players eligible for free agency at 29.5 years of age. It also involved a $1 billion pool (which would be tied to revenues in future seasons) that would be dispersed in an unspecified manner to replace the current arbitration system.

[lou]

And just like that, articles are coming out regarding MLB's proposal to service time changes. I don't see the union going for it with a straight age limitation, but here are some details with a lot more a the link. I could see them wanting both the age and some sort of "years after debut" limitation for players that get called up earlier.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/...structure.html



Major League Baseball proposed a radical altering of the league’s service time structure in collective bargaining discussions with the MLB Players Association last month, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The league’s proposal included an offer to make players eligible for free agency at 29.5 years of age. It also involved a $1 billion pool (which would be tied to revenues in future seasons) that would be dispersed in an unspecified manner to replace the current arbitration system.

Totally agree. It would have to be something like the shorter of (1) 29/whatever years old, or (2) 6/whatever years of MLB time, including no bullshit with service days and if you're up for say longer than 10 days it counts as 1 year (so that also positively impacts player arbitration too and September call ups must really be worth it).

Maybe there is also another exception that a team has to have a player for minimum 3 MLB seasons even if older than 29, so the 28 year old reliever rookie or backup catcher will always have 3 years of team control, etc. That then kicks in for those guys over 29 guys with limited MLB time, maybe you let the team have 1 restricted free agency year, where opposing teams can offer 3 year deals (i.e. what their arbitration years would be) for this limited amount of players so the team that just spent a decade developing them doesn't just lose them immediately right when they figure it out. This is like, if the Marlins kept Nola until he was 29 and he had his good year and all of a sudden after painstakingly developing that guy he just figures it out and you lose him. That is BS to the team so there should be some reasonable safeguard here. This wouldn't over complicate things for me and would be fair to everyone as it is effectively still letting the player get to free agency.

Of course, then teams play the system to call up every top prospect right when they turn 23 to get max prime years in the bigs. And then, high school players are valued greater in the draft because the teams can presumably have them under control for awhile. Bleday is going to be 24 next year, and looks like he needs another year in the minors, so he is a lower valued investment for the Marlins versus getting 18/19 year old guys and slow cooking them for 4-5 years. It'll really depress college players that teams don't think can come up rather immediately. There are winners and losers in everything in life, but college guys outside first round or two will fall rounds in the draft. The Burdicks of the world who are tracking to be 26 year old rookies will be the real losers, but I guess that's a small subset of players and this is overall better for all of them.

[fish16]

I think the service time system can be overhauled to make it much more fair for players or at least leveling the playing field to make it better for players while also incentivizing teams to call players up earlier,. Or, in other words, getting rid of the incentives to keep guys down. Just make it so if they are up for more than 15 days in a year or something around there, that counts as a year of service time. That way guys who are up temporarily just to cover for an injury or 2 don't accrue an entire years worth of service time and also teams that know prospects like wander franco will be up for significant portions of the year call them up right away when they are ready instead of the stupid games teams play now where they gaslight everyone and tell them that a guy isn't ready until right when, coincidentally, the service time implications are gone. It's better for the game for prospects to come up when they are ready and don't waste everyone's time in the minors for no reason other than contract manipulation for the future.

[Lee Stone]

26-3. That's the Marlins goal for September, A .500 season.

[fish16]

26-3. That's the Marlins goal for September, A .500 season.

seems like a reasonable expectation.

[fish16]

starling marte has been ridiculous in Oakland btw. They desperately need to sign him again in the offseason. Would be great to get him back AND have gotten luzardo as a piece for the future just for the cost of losing marte for a non contending end of year. He's got 20 sb's in 20 attempts in 30 games for Oakland, plus he's hitting .346 with an .861 OPS there as well. Overall for the year he's a ridiculous 44/47 on SB's. Give him 3 years and whatever it takes. They need to spend this offseason whether it be on him or another one of the big bats and then flip pablo for another young top prospect and then we can maybe talk about next year being anything better than this.