July 2021 Game Thread

[Lee Stone]

People here overrate Alcantra. He isn't even at 8 K/9, his xFIP is close to 4, his FIP is in the mid 3s, and he has one pitch that grades out as "good" and he gives up a lot of hits and BBs. He is a mid to bottom of the rotation starter on a good team.

Agree. He's a good sell reasonably high candidate.

[fish16]

sandy alcantara is not overrated. I dont think anyone here thinks he is a #1 ace type guy but he is a phenomenal mid rotation guy who now gets deep into games. on fangraphs he is on pace for a 4 WAR season and even that is probably brought down significantly by the 1 inning start where he gave up 8 runs to the dodgers. His ERA outside of that game is 2.64 and his WHIP is 1.08. He is a great pitcher who should not be traded yet unless you are absolutely blown away by an offer of multiple top prospects. Maybe a year or 2 down the line if the extension talks don't progress but he is absolutely someone we should be building around in the rotation as a stable, mid rotation piece, that can supplement the higher ceiling guys like Sixto, Rogers, and possible Cabrera, Meyer, and Eder.

He strikes out more than enough guys and that's not even his game as a pitcher. He is 17th among all starters in soft hit %. He is 23rd among all starters in medium hit % behind darvish and right in front of woodruff. and he's got the 13th lowest hard hit % in all of baseball right up there with the best pitchers in baseball this year. This has been a consistent pattern for him for going on 3 years. His arsenal helps him strike out enough guys and when people do hit the ball he manages the contact unbelievably well. If he was still showing signs like he did when he first came up where he gives up too many walks and cant get deep into games that would be one thing, but he has come into his own and dramatically improved that aspect of his game and has become an absolute horse in the rotation. He's gone at least 6 innings in 15 of his 20 starts. They should be talking about him as the most obvious extension candidate right now, not a trade unless a desperate team makes a stupid offer.

[fish16]

i really wish pablo was healthy cause to me he is the guy to sell high on if he didn't get hurt. Pablo is very similar to sandy as a stable mid rotation guy but that injury history is not pretty and I don't see him holding up long term. If we could have gotten a top prospect and a few minor prospects from another team for him as a really good innings eater with years of team control left I would have done that in a heartbeat with Cabrera, Meyer, Eder knocking on the door and sixto coming into next year healthy. I still think there is a good chance they trade him even though he is injured but there's no question his value took a hit so the move might be to have him come back before the end of the year and look good and then hope to get a good offer in the offseason.

[dgriot]

Re: Sandy, maybe it’s just a handful of ABs that disproportionately stick out in my head, but it feels he could reach frontline status if he didn’t have brain farts and go against script. Like, he will get ahead 0-2 on someone known to chase outside, but will just throw a middle in heater that gets belted instead. Clean up the mental part, and he would be a legit #2 on a contender.

[Erick]

People here overrate Alcantra. He isn't even at 8 K/9, his xFIP is close to 4, his FIP is in the mid 3s, and he has one pitch that grades out as "good" and he gives up a lot of hits and BBs. He is a mid to bottom of the rotation starter on a good team.

This is all kinds of wrong.

[Erick]

Re: Sandy, maybe it’s just a handful of ABs that disproportionately stick out in my head, but it feels he could reach frontline status if he didn’t have brain farts and go against script. Like, he will get ahead 0-2 on someone known to chase outside, but will just throw a middle in heater that gets belted instead. Clean up the mental part, and he would be a legit #2 on a contender.

Sandy actually has #1 upside.

He is a legit #2 on a contender right now. I think you guys are underrating him.

[Namaste]

People here overrate Alcantra. He isn't even at 8 K/9, his xFIP is close to 4, his FIP is in the mid 3s, and he has one pitch that grades out as "good" and he gives up a lot of hits and BBs. He is a mid to bottom of the rotation starter on a good team.

“People here overrate the best, most reliable starting pitcher on a top 5 starting rotation in baseball”

[fauowls44]

With the trade deadline coming up, I just realized we haven't heard from TJFLA in a long time. Hope he's OK. Anyone know?

[dgriot]

Sandy actually has #1 upside.

He is a legit #2 on a contender right now. I think you guys are underrating him.

You’re right - I think this tire fire of a season has made me focus on negatives and underrate the quality that’s there.

[sports24/7]

Sandy actually has #1 upside.

He is a legit #2 on a contender right now. I think you guys are underrating him.

I’m not sure he has #1 upside, but I think he’s a really good #3/good #2. But he’s a workhorse that stays healthy, and is really reliable. There are question marks for literally every other pitcher in the system, so that’s why I’d rather not trade him. But they do have a bunch of pitching, and they need to add impact bats. So I wouldn’t necessarily hate it for the right return.

[Todd]

“People here overrate the best, most reliable starting pitcher on a top 5 starting rotation in baseball”

Among the Marlins top 3 starters this season Alcantra is third in WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, and K/9, gives up the most BB/9, and is the oldest of the 3.

In Alcantras best full season (2019) his ERA was close to 4 while his FIP was in the mid 4s and xFIP was over 5 and he didn't even get to 7 K/9.

I never said he was bad. Just that this board overrates him which it objectively does.

[Namaste]

Among the Marlins top 3 starters this season Alcantra is third in WAR, ERA, FIP, xFIP, and K/9, gives up the most BB/9, and is the oldest of the 3.

In Alcantras best full season (2019) his ERA was close to 4 while his FIP was in the mid 4s and xFIP was over 5 and he didn't even get to 7 K/9.

I never said he was bad. Just that this board overrates him which it objectively does.

He’s not an ace on a playoff team. That I can get on board with.

But he had a horrific outing at Dodgers Stadium which really skewed his 2021 numbers.

He’s been scuffling a little but he rarely gets run support. If he struggles against Baltimore tonight I will reevaluate

[Todd]

Alcantra is decent but his stuff is pretty average/mediocre outside of his sinker and in games when that pitch isn't working he is both extremely hittable and gives a lot of free passes.

[Erick]

Alcantra is decent but his stuff is pretty average/mediocre outside of his sinker and in games when that pitch isn't working he is both extremely hittable and gives a lot of free passes.

He has a 1.15 WHIP this year and had a 1.19 WHIP last year. Not bad for a guy who allows a ton of baserunners…

Also, some of the stats you’re using don’t take quality of contact into account.

Sandy’s xERA this year is right in line with his actual ERA indiciating that he’s pitching to skill level.
Also, in an era where SP doesn’t grow on trees, the amount of innings he gives has its own value. Guy has proven he’s capable of 200+ innings.

He’s easily a #2 starter on most contenders right now.

[fish16]

If this is the last few games we’ll see of marte it has been an absolute pleasure to watch him on this team. The guy is not a superstar but there really isn’t a part of his game that isn’t at least above average. Guy is a 5 tool player and if he tests the market and doesn’t find a market for over 2 years I would love to re sign him to man centerfield for us