July 2021 Game Thread

[Nick]

It flew about 2.5 miles over Todd’s head.

To be fair, Lee becoming obsessed with Bryson Brigman as a prospect fits his MO.

[Nick]

Coming into this year, they had huge question marks about how good the pitchers are, plus some did have some lingering injuries which have turned out to be serious for this year. In the middle of a 100 year pandemic, I don't blame them for not breaking the bank in 2021. They did need to see what they had.

We know that answer now - the pitching is fucking incredible, they have a few long-term options they need to play (Anderson, Jazz, Sanchez), and they have "championship calibre" platoon/bench players in Duvall, Rojas, and Cooper. The other 8+ position player spots are a mess for long-term purposes.

It comes down to me, are they going to spend next year? This is going to cost $45-48 million (approx numbers, and I am overestimating club controlled guys to deflect someone like Pablo making more, etc.) and is frankly, 2-4 players away from being a real contender with that pitching. Note Bleday, Eder, and Meyer are not below which could be tremendous mid-season adds.

Alfaro ($3m), ________
Cooper (3.5m), L. Diaz ($750k)
Jazz ($750k)), Berti ($1.5m)
_________, Rojas ($5.5m)
Anderson ($5m)
Sanchez ($750k)
_________, Harrison ($750k)
Duvall ($3m)

Sandy ($7m), Pablo ($4.5m), Rogers ($750k), Sixto ($750k), Cabrera/Thompson/Poteet/Neidert ($750k)
Bass ($3m), Floro ($1.25m), Bender ($750k), Elisier ($1.5m), Curtiss ($750k), Holloway ($750k)
Bleier ($2m), _________

[This also doesn't account they can probably DFA Alfaro and move Bass and Bleier this deadline, which would get things closer to $38-40 million.]

When you look at 2023, $10-15 million is coming off the books with guys like Rojas, Cooper, Duvall, etc. moving on and likely some non-tenders to someone like Berti or Floro/pen arms. Add in arbitration raises, plus adding in guys like Bleday, Burdick/Jerar, Meyer, etc., the team is going to be around $40 million again. Basically, new payroll isn't emerging even when guys hit arbitration. This team is CHEAP for 3-4 years keeping everyone. They will have internal options for 20+ spots easily with this pitching surplus and some of the bats are bound to be work out into at least bench roles.

If we're looking at roster construction, they frankly need this now and longterm:

-A star level longterm 2B/SS opposite Jazz. Isan stinks. Yelich trade is an 0/4 bust.
-A longterm catcher. Obvious.
-A two year CF, to allow Scott/Misner/etc. cook for 2 more years in the minors and see if you get lucky. Maybe Wilson moves here too. I don't think you commit longterm here with all the guys even if they are collecting flat-lining this year.
-Bullpen lefties. Multiple. They need these guys and have for years.

This trade deadline should net the bullpen lefties, those seem like reasonable things to acquire for Aguilar, Yimi, etc.

Marte plus throwing in lower-level prospects (ala Vallimont, who is doing well) should net them a catcher.

I don't think you move Cooper/Rojas/Duvall as we're at the point the Marlins team and farm is loaded with young talent and those guys aren't' bringing back difference makers. They need to treat them as part of a contending team rather than dish them for outside top 15 system prospects. They are good and they should keep them.


So long story long, we get to - they have a legitimate roster of 20-23+ guys around $40-45 million for 3+ years, and after that it probably jumps to the $60s range when a bunch of guys hit Arb1 and Sandy/Rogers/Pablo are maybe making a bunch. They need to sign "1" longterm awesome starter at 2B/SS (this is Correa for me), and just need someone on a 2 year deal for CF and C to not be embarrassing. Everything else is going to be year to year bench guys/bullpen lefties.

Keep all of the pitchers (someone mentioned maybe trade Pablo. Not yet for any major arm. Hold all the major pitchers to next deadline to see how Sixto, Cabrera, Elisier, Meyer, and Eder look), and then bank on steps forwards from Lewin, Jazz, Sanchez, etc. They can collect bats June/July 2022 if they all stink by moving pitching then.


So back to your point, do they care about winning or profit? They have the team figured out. They tasted the playoffs. They have a top 3 young staff in baseball with more upside coming as arguably their three best prospects (Sixto, Cabrera, Meyer) aren't here yet. Naming rights. TV deal. They have done everything expected of them.

If they give Correa the mega-deal, and just fill in 2-3 spots with ordinary guys, they are well under $100 million, and would probably fall 17-23rd range in overall baseball payroll. If they don't do this with the pitching they have next 2-4 years, we will know our answer. Maybe you are right, but I don't think so. I think so big things are coming. I don't think we can read anything into not wanting Marte longterm. That is a reasonable position to not give him more than 2.

We'll see. Play all the kids and prep for next year.

I think you gotta be open to dealing one of your arms at all times. Obviously asking prices should be through the roof, but there has to be a trade down the road where we get multiple long-term position player pieces for one of our elite arms. it's the only way this works. I'm not as high on the bats we have in the minors (and majors), as you seem to be lou. I'm encouraged by Sanchez and Jazz, but there are still huge question marks there, neither is a slam dunk pencil this guy into the lineup for the next 5 years. Anderson had a .687 OPS before he got hurt this year. Burdick and Conine look like guys that are going to hit a lot of homers, but strike out a ton and hit around .200. Bleday isn't doing anything particularly well. There's nothing that really stands out at all about Scott and Misner. Brinson, Diaz and Harrison as you say are flat out busts. A lot of holes to fill and I would say maybe one of those position player holes could be filled by free agency, 2 at best. So there's gotta be more hitting talent coming in, and we've got to seize on the right trade opportunity at the right time.

[Namaste]

Jake Eder is #100 on Baseball America’s Top 100

[lou]

I think you gotta be open to dealing one of your arms at all times. Obviously asking prices should be through the roof, but there has to be a trade down the road where we get multiple long-term position player pieces for one of our elite arms. it's the only way this works. I'm not as high on the bats we have in the minors (and majors), as you seem to be lou. I'm encouraged by Sanchez and Jazz, but there are still huge question marks there, neither is a slam dunk pencil this guy into the lineup for the next 5 years. Anderson had a .687 OPS before he got hurt this year. Burdick and Conine look like guys that are going to hit a lot of homers, but strike out a ton and hit around .200. Bleday isn't doing anything particularly well. There's nothing that really stands out at all about Scott and Misner. Brinson, Diaz and Harrison as you say are flat out busts. A lot of holes to fill and I would say maybe one of those position player holes could be filled by free agency, 2 at best. So there's gotta be more hitting talent coming in, and we've got to seize on the right trade opportunity at the right time.

As for being "high" on the bats, just for discussion's sake. I think they have:

C - Nothing, maybe Fortes/Banfield develop into a mediocre backup or third catcher. Alfaro is probably a good backup, he is under performing this year to me. He's probably worth to keep next year, but arbitration 2023 will make no sense.

1B - Lewin should get a year, with a handcuff. Cooper is perfect for a platoon bat. This is a swap out next all star break or 2023 if those two don't work.

2B/SS - Jazz has bought himself 2+ years of starting time to see what happens, and I view him as a long term regular. Star? We'll see. Wherever he doesn't play is a mess with nothing coming up. Maybe Isan or Devers turns into a backup, and everyone else is further away

3B - Anderson is a fine starter, he's just been banged up. He was pacing 3+ WAR this and last season despite everything that's happening.

CF - Nothing. Disaster. Maybe they get lucky and Scott/Misner/others do something in 2 more years. Harrison and Brinson are terrible, although I think you give Harrison as much time as possible and just see if athleticism takes over. They have nothing to lose the rest of this year.

OF - I guess we can disagree here. I think they will develop 2 long term starters from Bleday, Sanchez, Burdick, Jerar, Conine, etc. I don't fault minor league bats having a slow year with a lot of time and conditioning off last year, plus league wide pitching is at an advantage. I think they need a guy like Duvall for 2022 to be able to man one spot in the heavy side of the platoon, and they owe themselves the time to see if Sanchez keeps hitting. I do think Bleday works out into at least a regular. I'm not sure about the rest.


I am fearful of moving Pablo (I do agree, he is the one to move if they move any of them) for bats, as even if they get the king's ransom and 2 great position player prospects, we already sax Sixto, Cabrera, and Elisier go down this year, who knows what happens when Thompson and Poteet get third time through the league (I suspect it won't be very pretty even if they have upped their status into MLB level players, etc.), and all of a sudden Sandy and Rogers (likely over achieving if he too has also upped his status) are with a lot of unknowns. These guys aren't losing value if they stay healthy and perform so there is no rush to move them. Trading one, and then getting two tommy johns sets them back and it's not an unrealistic scenario.

They have clear offensive holes, but it boils down to 3 guys to me and they have free agency $$$ (at least $30-35 million) and Marte trade returns to fix that. I think this is plan A, with plan B moving pitching.

I of course agree if something ludicrous happens, like they can get K. Ruiz and Lux in 1 deal, sure, but I'm not going to project crazy hypotheticals just yet. I want to keep the pitching and they can fix this ship QUICK with good Marte, Aguilar, and Yimi trades, and then spend some fucking money on 2 real free agents (even if not Correa).

[Madman81]

we're batting a guy with a .518 ops second in the order tonight

[sports24/7]

As for being "high" on the bats, just for discussion's sake. I think they have:

C - Nothing, maybe Fortes/Banfield develop into a mediocre backup or third catcher. Alfaro is probably a good backup, he is under performing this year to me. He's probably worth to keep next year, but arbitration 2023 will make no sense.

1B - Lewin should get a year, with a handcuff. Cooper is perfect for a platoon bat. This is a swap out next all star break or 2023 if those two don't work.

2B/SS - Jazz has bought himself 2+ years of starting time to see what happens, and I view him as a long term regular. Star? We'll see. Wherever he doesn't play is a mess with nothing coming up. Maybe Isan or Devers turns into a backup, and everyone else is further away

3B - Anderson is a fine starter, he's just been banged up. He was pacing 3+ WAR this and last season despite everything that's happening.

CF - Nothing. Disaster. Maybe they get lucky and Scott/Misner/others do something in 2 more years. Harrison and Brinson are terrible, although I think you give Harrison as much time as possible and just see if athleticism takes over. They have nothing to lose the rest of this year.

OF - I guess we can disagree here. I think they will develop 2 long term starters from Bleday, Sanchez, Burdick, Jerar, Conine, etc. I don't fault minor league bats having a slow year with a lot of time and conditioning off last year, plus league wide pitching is at an advantage. I think they need a guy like Duvall for 2022 to be able to man one spot in the heavy side of the platoon, and they owe themselves the time to see if Sanchez keeps hitting. I do think Bleday works out into at least a regular. I'm not sure about the rest.


I am fearful of moving Pablo (I do agree, he is the one to move if they move any of them) for bats, as even if they get the king's ransom and 2 great position player prospects, we already sax Sixto, Cabrera, and Elisier go down this year, who knows what happens when Thompson and Poteet get third time through the league (I suspect it won't be very pretty even if they have upped their status into MLB level players, etc.), and all of a sudden Sandy and Rogers (likely over achieving if he too has also upped his status) are with a lot of unknowns. These guys aren't losing value if they stay healthy and perform so there is no rush to move them. Trading one, and then getting two tommy johns sets them back and it's not an unrealistic scenario.

They have clear offensive holes, but it boils down to 3 guys to me and they have free agency $$$ (at least $30-35 million) and Marte trade returns to fix that. I think this is plan A, with plan B moving pitching.

I of course agree if something ludicrous happens, like they can get K. Ruiz and Lux in 1 deal, sure, but I'm not going to project crazy hypotheticals just yet. I want to keep the pitching and they can fix this ship QUICK with good Marte, Aguilar, and Yimi trades, and then spend some fucking money on 2 real free agents (even if not Correa).

I agree with your overall take that we need to wait to see what happens in the offseason to really crucify them on the money stuff. I’m not optimistic they’re going to spend on someone like Correa, or anything close, but I hope I’m wrong. If they don’t, this is basically the previous ownership group financially with a better international outlook, and better at developing players. But those latter two points won’t make up for the first, unfortunately. They aren’t the Rays.

As far as your plan, I agree with most of it, but I think they need a better plan at CF. I just don’t know that I see a way for them to add a good enough player there unless they’re going to give up valuable prospects, and I have very little faith in any of the CF in the system currently in the short term or long. The FA market at CF is going to be pretty weak with Marte being by far the best player out there. I’d bet they probably add a glove first CF from that group to start in 2022, though, and that’s pretty frustrating.

The other thing I’m not sure you’re accounting for is I don’t see Duvall opting in at this point. So you’re either going to have to extend him soon, or you’re probably losing him with the amount of HRs he’s going to end up with at the end of the year. Because of that, and because they’re not going to extend him, I think they need to trade him.

[Nick]

I can’t see Duvall getting better than 1 year $7 million next year which is what he’d be leaving on the table.

[sports24/7]

I can’t see Duvall getting better than 1 year $7 million next year which is what he’d be leaving on the table.

He’s essentially having a 40 HR season. I think he’ll get more than that. Mish was talking about this the other night and said he doesn’t think he takes the option if he keeps this up.

[Nick]

His numbers if you combine 2019 and 2020 were better than what he’s doing in 2021 and he only got what he got. I guess we’ll see.

[Namaste]

My fear has always been that MLB knew Mas had the superior bankroll to own a small market team but they went with Sherman/Jeter because of Jeter.

[fish16]

My fear has always been that MLB knew Mas had the superior bankroll to own a small market team but they went with Sherman/Jeter because of Jeter.

Samson, who hates jeter, has always said the complete opposite. mas always tried to act like he had the money but he didn't have the money to compete against sherman.

[Todd]

Mas net worth is over twice that of Sherman and Jeter combined.

[Nick]

If Google is to be believed, Todd, is (almost) right. Jorge Mas $1.2 Billion, Bruce Sherman - $550 Million, Derek Jeter $185 Million.

I'd be stunned if Samson was full of shit.

[fish16]

i wasnt referring to net worth, i was referring to the offer's they had on the table.

[Todd]

The issue is even Mas at 1.4 billion would have been on the lower end of owner wealth in MLB and they went with someone worth roughly half of that.