We're #29! We're #29!

[geemoney]

We can go back and forth on this forever, but the fact of the matter is, the Marlins are a team worth watching, and no one seems to do so. Every city in America has traffic problems, not just Miami. Every city in America has hot weather and rain in the summer, not just Miami. It's as if the fans in Miami are so abused that we should just say thank you to them every time they put on a Marleen hat or watch the game, get over it. If they're not showing up for a team worth showing up for, that you know it's OK to love them again and they're not showing up, what fucking gives?

I'm not asking for 3 mil right now, I'm not asking for 2.5 or even 2 mil. I'm asking the very simple question that if a team is winning, and enjoyable and has one of 10 players in baseball actually worth the price of admission, and no one's going, what's the new stadium really going to fix? In 5 years are we going to be blaming the traffic saying "have you ever tried driving south on I-95 during rush hour?" Or "they keep it at 72 with the roof on, I like it at 75, and I'm not wearing a windbreaker to a baseball game, so I'll just stay home."

It's preposterous the excuses we come up with.

Well, they did draw nearly 2,000 more fans per game than last year. That's a start. I mean, we're not going to grow to 25,000 per game over night. Even so, are the numbers good? No, and I'm one who generally hates to see the laundry list of excuses as well. But there are signs (small, but they're there) of improvement.

[lou]

We can go back and forth on this forever, but the fact of the matter is, the Marlins are a team worth watching, and no one seems to do so. Every city in America has traffic problems, not just Miami. Every city in America has hot weather and rain in the summer, not just Miami. It's as if the fans in Miami are so abused that we should just say thank you to them every time they put on a Marleen hat or watch the game, get over it. If they're not showing up for a team worth showing up for, that you know it's OK to love them again and they're not showing up, what fucking gives?

I'm not asking for 3 mil right now, I'm not asking for 2.5 or even 2 mil. I'm asking the very simple question that if a team is winning, and enjoyable and has one of 10 players in baseball actually worth the price of admission, and no one's going, what's the new stadium really going to fix? In 5 years are we going to be blaming the traffic saying "have you ever tried driving south on I-95 during rush hour?" Or "they keep it at 72 with the roof on, I like it at 75, and I'm not wearing a windbreaker to a baseball game, so I'll just stay home."

It's preposterous the excuses we come up with.

It's going to fix a lot. Because it shows the commitment of the city in concrete form, and once 2012 comes around and say we have Hanley, Johnson, let's give 3 random arb buyouts to Maybin, Volstad, Stanton, Morrison, West, Coghlan, and Miller, a big name free agent (you know Loria will approve a big name free agent to 'show' the people things are immediately changing. He's approved the big shock move - Pudge, Delgado - before and it will happen again), a likely consistent winning club for a few years, new uniforms bringing a new change in philosophy and look, etc etc, people will care.

Who cares in 2009 about the progress towards 2012? And I say that, to the average baseball fan who still see the empty stadium. I understand Miami is a bandwagon town. I've lived here basically my whole life. All I'm saying is, people don't think like you, me, or the other hardcore baseball fans on this board. It's the same old Marlins despite the fact they got the stadium and Hanley. And secondarily, the economy really isn't doing well if you haven't noticed so people may be holding back some entertainment dollars 3 years before a stadium is built. Things are going to change dramatically those first few years in the stadium, and then when the hype dies down, or the team slips like say the Mets. They'll still break 2 million a year in bad years just because the stadium is in a MUCH MUCH more accessible location. Is that "good" to the MLB average? Eh, being the 18th-22nd in attendance isn't crazy. But if that is the consistent level of attendance, with peak years breaking 3 million in winning years, cool. Mission Accomplished.

It's really going to be fine. Just like our offense next year.

[Beef]

I think people are more likely to go to the new stadium because of the event type deal it will be to see the new stadium rather than because they finally feel and can see tangible evidence that this team really is staying. Hopefully after that, they will want to return and all the Yanks, Mets, Sox, etc. fans down here will give way to a new generation of Fish fans. Just might take like 30 years or so to get that generation of fish fans.

[Swifty]

Oh I absolutely think the new stadium produces a need to see it, if for nothing other than pure curiosity.

My point isn't that the new stadium won't work for a short term increase, my point is that this market is showing no reason to believe "it" will work long term. The basic point we keep getting back to is "well, it worked in _______, give it time." I won't dispute that the Marlins need to become entrenched in South Florida culture, get away from the competition from displaced fans and fans of the local spring training team, however, much of that growth of the last era of expansion teams came at a time when satellite TV and the internet wasn't around to allow Boston fans to never miss a WEEI moment. I think we're nearing the end of "adopted" home town teams, and banking on the Marlins "creating" generations of fans when they've had a chance to and shown nothing or negligible results just has me ask the question again, what has Miami itself done to show such overwhelming faith in it as a market?

[Namaste]

Last in the NL.

So who's going to say it?

Are these numbers indicative of a market that can support major league baseball? Not drawing over 1.5 mil is just inexcusable and really reflective of either an indifferent community or a detachment from that community, neither of which bode well for long term health of that franchise.

I stopped reading this thread at this post so forgive me if I cover any ground already covered.


Did Norman Braman (sp) take over Swifts body? How many times have we gone over this?

Constant threat of lightning/rain. Suffocating heat. Horrible sight lines.

Baseball in a football facility. The list goes on and on and on. The new stadium changes a lot. Give it a chance.
--------------------

The long term stability we now have with the new facility should have brought a push at the turnstiles if the problem really is/was a reluctance to embrace an organization that could be on the way out of town.

There are a lot of things about this year that we should be able to point to as a foundation for growth. The stadium, the Hanley contract, a team with multiple all-stars, a winning record...if this isn't going to get people to come out, a new stadium isn't going to fix that.

I'd absolutely buy the argument that the roof is good for about 500,000 fans per season, but even then you're talking about less than 2 million on the season.

I don't agree with your first paragraph at all. More like, "hey, they're building this new awesome stadium that I can't wait to go to so fuck going to games in a football stadium and sweating my balls off and getting a sore neck from my shitty seat in left field foul territory."

[Swifty]

Evidently you didn't stop reading after my first post.

[Namaste]

Well, after my first post I kept reading and then saw more things I didn't agree with.

[lou]

My point isn't that the new stadium won't work for a short term increase

Can you please rephrase this, because they are going to draw at least 1,000,000 more fans in 2012 than in 2011. And you seriously cannot mean a brand new, state of the art, gorgeous stadium, will not produce an incredible ticket increase in the short term.

[Beef]

He agrees

[Party]

I seriously doubt the Marlins ever dip below 20K a game in the new ballpark barring a stretch of absolutely miserable seasons like the Royals or Pirates. 24-26K (1.9M-2.1M) for average years and 33-34K (2.6-2.7M) for above average years is a fair estimate. The bigger number to look at would be % sold. 3 million in attendance is going to require a sellout of all seats and a couple complete sellouts (1K SRO).

This is still Miami and I wouldn't be surprised if even in those 24-26K years there are fewer people in the seats like at Heat games.

Moving closer to the urban core was 100% the right move but:

1) This is Miami and downtown isn't what it is in other cities. Downtown Miami is a ghost town after rush hour and most of the condos are empty/in foreclosure/owned by South Americans.

2) There is also no mass transit connection to the ballpark which is one of the minuses of the OB site.

3) City of Miami proper is still one of the poorest cities in the United States.

So I think the downtown effect is blown a little out of proportion for now. With time I believe both problems will change and the Marlins will benefit greatly, especially if the city of Miami can successfully market the area around the ballpark to become a quasi-urban oasis for yuppies to buy homes/condos/apartments like they did with Midtown.

[Omar]

The long term stability we now have with the new facility should have brought a push at the turnstiles if the problem really is/was a reluctance to embrace an organization that could be on the way out of town.

12% increase?

[Swifty]

Because we were dealing with such a small volume of customers to begin with, 2,000 fans per game seems like a big deal, but come on, we're talking about 2K per game, 160K per season, we're talking less people through the turnstiles per game than Citi and New Yankee eliminated seats over their respective previous ballparks.

Progress is progress, but not all 12% increases are created equally.

[Omar]

Yes, but you have to look at markets relatively. For a market with no tradition, no money invested properly into actually building a fanbase, and all the myriad factors that affect attendance, I'd say 12% is a significant gain.

[Swifty]

I wouldn't call in significant, but I also wouldn't call it insignificant.

I think that, with limited exception, if we don't handily surpass 1.5 mil next season, with the new stadium locked up, with the prices frozen for season tickets, with Hanley under contract and hopefully JJ as well, we really have to openly wonder about the health of this market.

[lou]

Living in Brickell, I can say it is not a ghost town after work. Merry Brickell Village is jammed for dinner most nights, and the bar scene is picking up immensely. Midtown (east of Design District) is kind of a ghost town though.

Sure there is stuff in foreclosure, like everywhere, and there is some % of transit population of rich South Americans/Europeans who live here 3 months out of the year on vacation, but there is still a lot of people around. And everything will be full within 3-5 years. I don't think expecting a good draw from this area is at all overstated. It is what it is, it's going to help a lot. This stadium is going to be good for at least 10,000 more per game than where they are now.

What's going to make this a consistent 3 million draw, is getting the suburbs out in force. There is no doubt in my mind in low years this team is going to break 2.25 million a year due to location/no rain/commitment to city reasons, but they are going to have to draw an extra 10,000-12,000 a night on WEEKDAYS out of West Kendall, Homestead, Aventura, North Miami Beach, and random souls in Broward to consistently break this into a top 10 attendance market. I'm not sure this market can do that despite it's size, but that's just Miami. It is what it is.

And I still think it's brutally silly to believe that getting a stadium in 2012, should have a significant increase in 2009 attendance in a down economy. And here is an example.

Rounded to nearest thousand. And I put the records to show Minnesota has been "good" for all of these years.

2004 1,911,000, 92-70, Made Playoffs
2005 2,034,000, 83-79, Major Stadium Push Starts
2006 2,285,000, 96-66, Made Playoffs, Continued Stadium Push with Financing
2007 2,296,000, 79-83, Figured shit out, Ground Breaking August 30, 2007
2008 2,302,000, 88-75, Pennant Race
2009 2,222,000 and a few games left, 81-74, Pennant Race
2010 Stadium Opens

I mean. Where is the up tick here? We're talking roughly 250,000-275,000 jump in 2006-2009 from the 2005 level. This is a 12.5-15% increase in attendance per year. And I'm roundballing these so if it's slightly off, eh? What was our increase this year? Cool 12%. In a down economy. So basically, we've just followed Minnesota. And who cares if we're starting lower so we need less people to show up. It counts. It's the market.

The gain happens when the stadium is built. You may get some momentum leading up to it, but the big 750,000-1,000,000 jump happens when they thing is built.

So I'm not worried about attendance at all. It would be nice if they can plop an extra 250,000 on 2010 and then again in 2011 to get over 2 million before the thing is built, but if it stays at 1.6 for 2 years, it's still going to shoot to over 3 million, and then settle in the 2.25-2.5 range in bad/normal years and close to 3 in contending years.