Marlins 2017-2018 Offseason Discussion Thread

[rmc523]

I figured the season is pretty much over for us, and since offseason talk/trades are starting to be discussed, I figured I'd start the thread. It should certainly be an interesting offseason with the pending sale.

From Barry Jackson:

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/sp...172809246.html

• Jeter has high regard for Ichiro Suzuki, and with Suzuki’s second half surge, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Marlins offer him a new contract. Suzuki, 43, has said that he wants to keep playing. Jeter previously authored a glowing piece about Ichiro in The Players Tribune. He’s hitting .328 since the All-Star break after batting .220 before that.

• The Marlins are expected to try to trade Martin Prado this offseason, and if that happens, Brian Andersen will have every opportunity to win the third base job.

Andersen, who had a terrific year in the minors, has been decent in his first couple weeks in the majors.

He has struck out too often (10 times in 40 plate appearances), but that isn’t surprising for a young player.

But he also has nine hits (including a double) and five walks and is hitting .257 in 10 games, with a .350 on-base percentage.

Defensively, he has handled all 13 of his chances without an error.

Anderson hit .275, with 22 homers and 81 RBI in 120 games for two minor league teams this season, at Double A and Triple A.

Trading Prado will be difficult; he is due $13.5 and $15 million the next two seasons. He hit .250 in 37 games during an injury-marred 2017 season.

[tjfla]

This should be a very busy thread over the next few months

As for Ichiro and Prado,I like Ichiro as a 4th OF on a PLAYOFF type team not much on a 55 million kinda rebuilding one. Prado will be easier to move then people think-u attach him to Bour,Ozuna or Yelich. He can play 3B,2B or LF-if u trade Ozuna and Prado to Toronto u then can give Josh Donaldson DH days

[Nick]

If you have to attach him to a deal that includes one of our core guys to be able to trade him I don't think I'd consider that easy to move.

[emkayseven]

I liked where Barry Jackson misspelled Brian Anderson's name twice

[fish16]

If you have to attach him to a deal that includes one of our core guys to be able to trade him I don't think I'd consider that easy to move.

Ya, no point trading one of those guys if youre gonna somewhat diminish the return by adding in salary. I think you will be able trade Gordon for just a salary dump after this year to a 2b needy team and I think you ask every team and find the most that the other team is willing to assume for Prado and trade him too. Especially dont attach Tazawa or Ziegler to one of the core pieces when they only have 1 more year left on the deal. Priority should be dumping as much salary as possible from Chen (wont happen), Gordon, and Prado. Then i'd get a huge return for Ozuna, my preference would be for a ton of pitching from the braves.

[fish16]

This is way too early to do this, but here's what i'd like to see when we inevitably blow it up.

First, i'd leave Dietrich as 2b, Realmuto, Stanton, and Yelich as starters who return. Then, for SS, i'd like to see us buy low on Jurickson Profar and give him a chance to play everyday. He wouldnt cost much to acquire, has very high upside, and can be a steal. For 1b i'd just sign a stopgap who can play 1st for a year or 2 or acquire a prospect in a trade that can play right away.

I'd trade Bour for starting pitching, Ozuna for pitching and his replacement in the OF, and try to cut as much of Gordon and prado's salary as possible. They make 24.3 million combined so if you can get rid of, say, 20 million, I think we could get just as much production out of Dietrich and Anderson at their positions for much cheaper.

Ozuna should be able to get a huge haul and my preference would be the braves. Priority should not be to get rid of those Tazawa and Ziegler deals because they expire at the end of next year anyway. The bigger deal are the longer term contracts. We should be trying to cut as much salary as possible for next offseason as a goal time frame. I'd keep Yelich and Realmuto because they are steals for a while contract wise and Stanton should be kept unless we get a great offer. Then start investing like the Astros did during their rebuild and already have guys like Yelich, Realmuto, and Stanton signed long term.

C- Realmuto
1b- Flier on someone
2b- Dietrich
SS- Profar
3b- Brian Anderson
Lf- Acuna?!?
Cf- Yelich
Rf- Stanton

[fish16]

Following up on the Profar point because i've been advocating trading for him since this past trade deadline: because the Rangers didnt promote him this september, he now has 3 more years of team control following this year. I'd love to see if we could get him and maybe another prospect in a swap for Bour or maybe a reliever like Barraclough+ because their bullpen has been a mess this year. Overall, I know we're rebuilding, but id love to see them acquire some sort of potential player at SS. Rojas cannot be a plan as a starter for next year, plus I love a nice young infield core of Dietrich at 2b, Profar at SS, and Anderson at 3b with maybe Realmuto at 1b? That is cheap as hell and full of potential for a rebuilding team.


Profar is the best you are gonna do at SS either in the trade market or FA market.

[Nick]

I really don't see how Dee's contract is so horrible. 4 years/$52 million for what he provides is completely reasonable. In a scenario where Bour is traded, I'd rather just put Dietrich at 1st. I like the idea of spot-starting Realmuto at 1st, but his real value is at catcher.

[rmc523]

I really don't see how Dee's contract is so horrible. 4 years/$52 million for what he provides is completely reasonable. In a scenario where Bour is traded, I'd rather just put Dietrich at 1st. I like the idea of spot-starting Realmuto at 1st, but his real value is at catcher.

I think it's more about freeing up money than him being bad. He may not be great like the season which lead to the contract, but he's not bad, as if the contract is dead weight.

[Nick]

Just saying he's a legitimate trade piece if he's not on the team next year. If his trade is simply a salary dump like trading Prado would be then we've got a problem.

[fish16]

Just saying he's a legitimate trade piece if he's not on the team next year. If his trade is simply a salary dump like trading Prado would be then we've got a problem.

I would salary dump him if thats what it takes. Obviously you look to get the best deal you possibly can though. His salary isnt unreasonable, but it isnt a value, which is what every MLB team should be looking for at every position, especially lower market teams like the Marlins. Dee Gordon is a good enough player, but you can easily find close to what he will provide offensively for much less money. Specifically, Dietrich can put up the exact same OPS over the course of the season for much less money. Might not be the defensive player Dee is, but I like Dietrich's power potential more than Dee's complete lack of power. For everything there is to love about Dee, even with a .344 OBP this year he is still OPS'ing just .717. I know he's not supposed to be a power guy, but for over 10 million a year this year and for years into the future, you need more than a .717 OPS from a position that is increasingly looking like a position that is expected to produce more power.

I like Dee, wouldnt mind if we kept him, but he is nothing special and his production can be replaced for much less money. If he was a SS full time, however, which i have been advocating for a while as well, that would be a different story because his bat would be much more valuable relative to his position.

I wouldnt mind moving Dee to SS full time, Anderson full time at 3b, Dietrich spending most of the time at 2b and also splitting some time at 1b with Realmuto, and bringing ellis back for another year and using him much more than we did this year.

My overall point in my original post is that we should be cuttign as much money as we can by trading anyone with a long term contract that goes longer than next year. I dont want to see Tazawa and Ziegler added to core pieces in deals to cut money for next year when their contracts expire after next year anyways. The key to this offseason is acquiring as much young pitching as possible for guys like Prado, Dee, Ozuna, and Bour, and then trying to cut as much future salary from the contracts of Dee, Prado, Chen, and maybe Stanton depending on if you can get a huge return. This, to me, like the White Sox, is a rebuild that if done right can make this team have an incredibly bright future as soon as next offseason. The key is if the front office and ownership situation will be allowed to do it right.

- - - - - - - - - -

The more I think of it the more I like the idea of re-signing Ellis for cheap and signing another backup C and playing Realmuto at 1b a lot more than he did this year if we trade Bour.


Obviously the team will stink if they follow what im advocating on doing, but just with our infield we can have some real good value for cheap players as soon as next year while cutting a shit ton of salary for the future.

C-Realmuto/Ellis- both very cheap
1b- Bour is still cheap and if we go with Dietrich or realmuto the position as a whole would still be cheap.
2b- Dietrich would be cheap.
SS- Profar would be under team control and still cheap for 3 years and could be a steal in a trade.
3b- Anderson is obviously still making the minimum and can be expected to produce anywhere from a .750 to .800 OPS I think.

For a rebuilding team that isnt the worst you can do, still has a bit of potential, and is cheap as hell anyways.

[Nick]

Something I've been thinking about for a while is factoring in Dee's steals into OPS. This is the best way I can think to do it.

He's been thrown out stealing 14 times this year so removing those 14 times he got on-base his OBP goes from .344 to .321. So that's adjusted OBP.

For Slugging percentage the steals would affect his total bases 55 steals, 14 times caught stealing. His total bases go up by 41 from 224 to 265. So his slugging percentage goes from .373 to .441.

So his new OPS would be .762. Maybe not the perfect way to incorporate steals, but I think a slightly more accurate depiction of his offensive production.

[fish16]

Something I've been thinking about for a while is factoring in Dee's steals into OPS. This is the best way I can think to do it.

He's been thrown out stealing 14 times this year so removing those 14 times he got on-base his OBP goes from .344 to .321. So that's adjusted OBP.

For Slugging percentage the steals would affect his total bases 55 steals, 14 times caught stealing. His total bases go up by 41 from 224 to 265. So his slugging percentage goes from .373 to .441.

So his new OPS would be .762. Maybe not the perfect way to incorporate steals, but I think a slightly more accurate depiction of his offensive production.

That actually is really good analysis. There has to be something out there on a site like fangraphs incorporating steals into a player's numbers other than just WAR.

I really like Dee, i just think that contract makes him as a player on a small market team like this so much less valuable at the 2b position that is increasingly becoming a more power hitting position. I really wish that if they do keep Dee, they take his defensive limitations at SS and ride his bat as a drastic improvement to what we currently have there. Thinking of the middle infield positions in a "net production" type way, I think a Dee at SS and Dietrich or a guy like Profar at 2b can net us really solid production from the middle infield as a whole for relatively cheap over the next few years.

The contract that just kills us is the Chen deal. He is a complete zero and his money is extended so far into the future. My outlook on what to do for the team would be so much different if that contract didnt exist or expired next year like Ziegler, Tazawa, and Volquez.

- - - - - - - - - -

How much money would we have committed following next year if we let the contracts of Tazawa, Ziegler, and Volquez expire and then say we trade Dee and Prado while only having to eat like 5 million of their salary combined (rough estimate)? It wouldnt be much right? Just Yelich, Stanton, and Chen's contracts as the only real significant money owed to anyone. That would be a great goal to get to by the end of next year. Aside from Chen which is a complete zero, I dont think the payroll situation is as terrible as it is made out to be and it is certainly able to be fixed in that way by the end of next year. Plus, I wouldnt do this, but if we really wanted to we could probably get rid of Stanton's contract pretty easily after this year he's having I would think.

[tjfla]

I really don't see how Dee's contract is so horrible. 4 years/$52 million for what he provides is completely reasonable. In a scenario where Bour is traded, I'd rather just put Dietrich at 1st. I like the idea of spot-starting Realmuto at 1st, but his real value is at catcher.

It's not a bad contract at all especially since he looks good again. It's more about teams trying to get him for nothing because they think we wanna lose the cash BUT if Jeter/Mike Hill comes out and says we are happy to hold onto him than we will be getting a nice deal for him. In other words as long as they trade Dee before the salary dumping starts then we will be able to get great value for him but if they wait till they after his value goes down

Philly and Toronto are gonna be the 2 teams to watch with us. They both like multiple guys on the roster and are willing to add alot of salary. They both also have great systems

[fish16]

If they dump salary in other deals before a Dee Gordon trade that would have 0 effect on their ability to get as good a deal as they can in a separate Dee Gordon trade.