Marlins 2017-2018 Offseason Discussion Thread

[fish16]

Chen yet again shut down with elbow discomfort. Why the fuck hasnt this guy gotten the damn surgery already? This is straight up ridiculous at this point.

[rmc523]

Yeah, the Chen thing is ridiculous at this point - I get initially trying to avoid surgery, but it keeps recurring, clearly it'll be needed eventually, he should've had it done early this year. So now he'll be out next year too.

Also, apparently Nick Wittgren had a bone spur removed from his elbow.

[tjfla]

If they dump salary in other deals before a Dee Gordon trade that would have 0 effect on their ability to get as good a deal as they can in a separate Dee Gordon trade.

Ya if they dump Stanton,Prado and other money NO MLB team will figure out that they can get Dee for pennies because Jeter wants to get rid of cash.

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Yeah, the Chen thing is ridiculous at this point - I get initially trying to avoid surgery, but it keeps recurring, clearly it'll be needed eventually, he should've had it done early this year. So now he'll be out next year too.

Also, apparently Nick Wittgren had a bone spur removed from his elbow.

Might as well. Get his arm right and be ready in Jan. Rather him do this then rest and rehab

[fish16]

Ya if they dump Stanton,Prado and other money NO MLB team will figure out that they can get Dee for pennies because Jeter wants to get rid of cash.

correct. They will know we're trying to dump money, that doesnt mean a good GM still trying to deal Gordon wont just take a deal for pennies because of this. You can have a fire sale trying to shed salary while not receiving a lesser return just because people know the end goal is to shed salary.

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Reading Mattingly's comments on Chen, it seems like there is genuine concern that he wont be able to pitch again. IS there some sort of way if thats the case that insurance would pick up the remainder of his salary? Obviously an elbow issue is possible to come back from and he will likely just end up having surgery and coming back after next year, but is there a way the money can be treated like Bosh with the heat and have insurance pick up the salary if it turns out to be some sort of career ending elbow injury?

[rmc523]

correct. They will know we're trying to dump money, that doesnt mean a good GM still trying to deal Gordon wont just take a deal for pennies because of this. You can have a fire sale trying to shed salary while not receiving a lesser return just because people know the end goal is to shed salary.

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Reading Mattingly's comments on Chen, it seems like there is genuine concern that he wont be able to pitch again. IS there some sort of way if thats the case that insurance would pick up the remainder of his salary? Obviously an elbow issue is possible to come back from and he will likely just end up having surgery and coming back after next year, but is there a way the money can be treated like Bosh with the heat and have insurance pick up the salary if it turns out to be some sort of career ending elbow injury?

I imagine they would've had to take out a policy on the contract. Do we know whether they did this? I don't know if it's done with every player - I think (or at least I've been under the impression) that it's usually done with injury-prone players when the contract is signed. I could be wrong though and maybe they have some sort of policy that covers them all generally. If it were done on every player, I feel like you'd hear about it more with all the TJ surgeries and whatnot that always happen.

[fish16]

I imagine they would've had to take out a policy on the contract. Do we know whether they did this? I don't know if it's done with every player - I think (or at least I've been under the impression) that it's usually done with injury-prone players when the contract is signed. I could be wrong though and maybe they have some sort of policy that covers them all generally. If it were done on every player, I feel like you'd hear about it more with all the TJ surgeries and whatnot that always happen.

i find it hard pressed to imagine that it would cover an elbow injury even if they did. It's not some out of the ordinary non baseball health injury. I was just bringing up the possibility. That would be awesome if the team could get out from under his contract for nothing. We're either just gonna have to eat it or pair it with a huge asset and then lose the huge asset for a much lower return. His whole situation sucks. The fact that he has now put off the surgery for 2 years is so ridiculous at this point.

[rmc523]

i find it hard pressed to imagine that it would cover an elbow injury even if they did. It's not some out of the ordinary non baseball health injury. I was just bringing up the possibility. That would be awesome if the team could get out from under his contract for nothing. We're either just gonna have to eat it or pair it with a huge asset and then lose the huge asset for a much lower return. His whole situation sucks. The fact that he has now put off the surgery for 2 years is so ridiculous at this point.

I agree. I think we're stuck with the contract. What team is going to take it? The guy literally can't even pitch, with no timetable for when he might even be able to again. Like you said, the only scenario would be to package it with a valuable asset.

I can understand trying to avoid it last year, but when he went down this year, he should've had then, been out this season, and come back part way through next. Now we're looking at 2019 at best, it's sounding like.

The Volquez thing makes it even worse because it's the last year of the contract.....we'll be paying him $13M (really over that since he missed much of this year) to do nothing, and there's no way to get rid of that.

[fish16]

I agree. I think we're stuck with the contract. What team is going to take it? The guy literally can't even pitch, with no timetable for when he might even be able to again. Like you said, the only scenario would be to package it with a valuable asset.

I can understand trying to avoid it last year, but when he went down this year, he should've had then, been out this season, and come back part way through next. Now we're looking at 2019 at best, it's sounding like.

The Volquez thing makes it even worse because it's the last year of the contract.....we'll be paying him $13M (really over that since he missed much of this year) to do nothing, and there's no way to get rid of that.

Agreed on the Volquez part, but im not that concerned about that as it expires after next year. I think the goal should be to get down to as low of a salary as possible by the end of next year. Ziegler, Tazawa, and Volquez all expire after next year so they should just eat their costs (for Volquez they dont even have the choice) and certainly not combine their contracts with an asset. The goal contracts to move should be Chen (likely not possible), Prado, Gordon, and maybe Stanton. Then trade Ozuna, Bour, and maybe Yelich/JT to completely rebuild our farm system and start over. Then you invest heavily in the draft, IFA, and player development.

[rmc523]

Here are our commitments for the next 5 years:

	'18	'19	'20	'21	'22	Total
Stanton	25M	26M	26M	29M	29M	135M
Chen	10M	20M	22M	option	-	52M
Prado	13.5M	15M	-	-	-	28.5M
Volquez	13M	-	-	-	-	13M
Gordon	10.8M	13.3M	13.8M	1M	-	38.9M
Ziegler	9M	-	-	-	-	9M
Tazawa	7M	-	-	-	-	7M
Yelich	7M	9.75M	12.5M	14M	-	43.25
	95.3M	84.05M	74.3M	44M	29M	326.65M

Realistically, the only contracts you'd like to try to get rid of are Prado (28.5M), Ziegler (9M), Tazawa (7M), and maybe Gordon (38.9M) if you're wanting to dump salary. These deals would also depend on what we're looking to get back.....do we just want to get rid of money and not worry about the prospects, a la Loria? Do we not worry about the money, pay a good portion of the contracts, and get the best possible prospects back? Or somewhere in between? My guess is in between, leaning toward the money.

I'm not the best with numbers/value, so these are just guessing:
-for Prado, could you eat $5M/year and get something decent back? He's been a good player the last few years, so I don't think he's worthless. That'd save us 8.5M next year (18.5M total)
-Ziegler has had a good second half, so could you pay 3M (save 6M)?
-Ziegler is more valuable than Tazawa, pay the same 3M, save 4M? That'd mean of Ziegler/Tazawa's total 16M for next year, I think you'll be able to save maybe 10M?
-Gordon has shown he still has value too - do you eat 10M of the remaining 38.9M (saving 8.3M next year, and 28.9M total)?

Those would represent 26.8M off of next year's books, which gets us to 68.5M committed. We dumped at least 21.25M of arbitration cases when trading Ramos, Koehler, Phelps, and Hech, and we can get rid of Locke and his at least 3.025M. They can be replaced with guys making the minimum, which would be 2.675M total. 68.5M+2.675 = 71.175M

Volquez's 13M you just have to eat for next year. Chen's contract you're not moving.

I come to around 21M for the rest of the arbitration guys and factoring in ~5M for a Ellis/Ichiro type players, but I'm realizing there's some I missed, and that's also with me guessing arbitration salaries. That'd have us around 90-95M. It's been reported they've talked about 80-85M range with Stanton, and 55M without. My guesses aren't that far off from those figures.

I think Ozuna will probably on the block, as he's a free agent after 2019, and represents an "easy" path to acquiring top pitching talent, especially after the year he's had. That also helps clear some salary.

I referenced Cot's baseball contracts for the numbers above.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...miami-marlins/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...Ls8/edit#gid=0

[fish16]

I think in regards to Tazawa and Ziegler the better move would be to wait until the deadline next year and then see what you can get and hope they rebuild some value if you trade them at all. They are not priorities in the slightest to me and relievers always seem to have more value at the deadline. Prado I think you might have to eat like 5 million each of the next couple years but we will definitely be able to trade him and still get a solid prospect back or just not get a prospect back and just dump all of his money.

Volquez and Chen are dead money but Prado, Dee, and Stanton should all be fairly easily tradeable. Id like to see if we can get one of Betts or Benintendi or maybe even a guy like Bogaerts in a stanton trade rather than for prospects. They desperately need a huge power bat amidst all their really solid young bats and we would get a cost controlled young player, plus Dombrowski has never been afraid to make big moves.

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My priority for the offseason would be dealing Ozuna to the Rays or Braves for some of their top pitching prospects plus an OF replacement. Cardinals might also be a good fit for him.

Then Bour for multiple prospects rather than just one top guy because I dont think youre gonna find a team willing to deal a top guy for him but I could see us using Bour similar to the Phelps trade where we might not get a top guy, but do a good job at getting 3-4 guys that help continue to build depth in the system.

Then Dee and Prado. I think you can eat a very minimal amount of money and still get a really nice haul for them. They are still quality players and not just contract and salary that you are trying to dump.

Then you shop Stanton and see what you can get. This is a wild card cause i think you can get someone to eat most of his contract and not get a great return, or you could get a great return and eat a lot of his money. Ill be very interested to see what we choose and im not even sure what id do in that situation.

Then id put Yelich and JT out there and just see what you can get. Dont trade them unless you get an overwhelming offer.

Id also deal Straily and maybe even a guy like Barraclough. Then you just tank the next 2 years while investing heavily in the draft.

Im really looking forward to this offseason. This will be huge to determine what the future of this franchise will be like and how long this rebuild is going to take. It's all moot, however, unless we invest in the draft on top of dealing from this current core of players.

[Nick]

How does Chen's signing bonus work? He had a $13 million signing bonus, but I read somewhere that he hadn't yet been paid that Signing Bonus, so I assumed the new ownership would have to pay it. Is that correct?

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Chen gets a $13 million signing bonus, of which $5 million is payable on Nov. 30, 2017, and the remainder on June 30, 2018. The deal calls for salaries of $6 million this year and $9 million in 2017, and it includes player options at $10 million in 2018, $20 million in 2019 and $22 million in 2020. All three options must be decided within four days of the end of the 2017 World Series.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/m...signing-011916

[fish16]

How does Chen's signing bonus work? He had a $13 million signing bonus, but I read somewhere that he hadn't yet been paid that Signing Bonus, so I assumed the new ownership would have to pay it. Is that correct?

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http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/m...signing-011916

that contract is just so ridiculous

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Just to do a few hypothetical Ozuna trades: I'd love to see

Braves: Kyle Wright, Maitan, and then one of Ian Anderson, Gohara, or Wentz, and then a lower level prospect we take a flier on. I'd also give up a lot more to get Albies in there too instead of Maitan.
Rays: Honeywell and De Leon + a lower level guy.
Cards: See if we can nab Reyes, Flaherty, and then an OF guy who can start next year or a lower level high potential middle infield prospect.

Either way, we need to get not just a top of the rotation kind of guy for Ozuna, but an Ace type guy for him. He is the only piece that really makes sense to trade right now that will nab us an ace type guy (I dont want to trade Yelich or JT this offseason).

[rmc523]

How does Chen's signing bonus work? He had a $13 million signing bonus, but I read somewhere that he hadn't yet been paid that Signing Bonus, so I assumed the new ownership would have to pay it. Is that correct?

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http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/m...signing-011916

So in essence, that means his 2018 salary is 18M.

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that contract is just so ridiculous

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Just to do a few hypothetical Ozuna trades: I'd love to see

Braves: Kyle Wright, Maitan, and then one of Ian Anderson, Gohara, or Wentz, and then a lower level prospect we take a flier on. I'd also give up a lot more to get Albies in there too instead of Maitan.
Rays: Honeywell and De Leon + a lower level guy.
Cards: See if we can nab Reyes, Flaherty, and then an OF guy who can start next year or a lower level high potential middle infield prospect.

Either way, we need to get not just a top of the rotation kind of guy for Ozuna, but an Ace type guy for him. He is the only piece that really makes sense to trade right now that will nab us an ace type guy (I dont want to trade Yelich or JT this offseason).

Yeah, to me you keep and build around Yelich and JT. You'd have to be absolutely completely blown away to trade them.

[fish16]

So in essence, that means his 2018 salary is 18M.

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Yeah, to me you keep and build around Yelich and JT. You'd have to be absolutely completely blown away to trade them.

Agreed, especially with Yelich's contract. To me, i'd be much more willing to trade JT than Yelich. I love JT's bat from the catcher position but I think a lot of his value is tied to the fact that he plays catcher and the catcher position as a whole is so terrible in the majors right now. He is a really nice hitter, but I think he is more of a low .800 OPS guy rather than closer to .900 OPS guy at his peak and if you can get an ace or superstar level talent at a different position id consider that heavily.

[Nick]

So in essence, that means his 2018 salary is 18M.

Well, I'm thinking since we haven't reached November 30th, 2017 yet. Basically his salary for next year is 15M and then his salary for 2019 is 28M.

*EDIT* I just saw June 30th 2018. So basically 23M in 2018, 20M in 2019 and 22M in 2020.