Marlins 2017-2018 Offseason Discussion Thread

[fauowls44]

They want EITHER 1 and also have offers out to 2 other OF however they are longer shots

Also have 1 year offers out to 3 or 4 SP. Garcia/Nolasco/Anibal/Jesse Chavez

But are more into the OF market and trying to trade JT right now

If I had to guess the other OFs, I'd go with Carlos Gomez and Carlos Gonzalez...maybe Bautista?

[tjfla]

If I had to guess the other OFs, I'd go with Carlos Gomez and Carlos Gonzalez...maybe Bautista?

Nope. They want LHB who can play CF/4th OF type-Jarrod Dyson is 1 guy

Not looking to spend tons of any of these guys

Other one I have heard Colby Rasmus but not confirmed

[lou]

So payroll is probably around $86+ million right now, I believe they have a $7 million insurance policy on Volquez so that is $79, and some Chen money is deferred so that's probably somewhat lower from those random payments.

I believe the Wolverine budget was $85-90 million for this year, so getting rid of JT lowers this to probably the low 70s, assuming Volquez-insurance and Chen-deferments, so that's plenty of money to spend $3-5 million each an OF, SP, and presumably new catcher. That's probably "$80+ million" opening day, with a real chance to lower that dramatically with in season trades of all the obvious names.

A 3rd division starter / good 4th OF is definitely what they need. This guy is probably only going to start 60+ games and then be jettisoned for Brinson, Sierra, and B. Lee, which I presume is the core outfield in August

April - Dietrich, Veteran, Ortega/Van Slyke/Cooper
May 8th - Dietrich, Brinson, Veteran/Ortega-Cooper-SVS if they break out and require playing time
Aug 1 - B. Lee, Brinson, Sierra, with Ortega and Cooper on the bench; Dietrich, Veteran, and SVS moved in July

Makes sense to me. Whoever wants to sign and get playing time to rehabilitate themselves. All these names sound good to me.

[tjfla]

So payroll is probably around $86+ million right now, I believe they have a $7 million insurance policy on Volquez so that is $79, and some Chen money is deferred so that's probably somewhat lower from those random payments.

I believe the Wolverine budget was $85-90 million for this year, so getting rid of JT lowers this to probably the low 70s, assuming Volquez-insurance and Chen-deferments, so that's plenty of money to spend $3-5 million each an OF, SP, and presumably new catcher. That's probably "$80+ million" opening day, with a real chance to lower that dramatically with in season trades of all the obvious names.

A 3rd division starter / good 4th OF is definitely what they need. This guy is probably only going to start 60+ games and then be jettisoned for Brinson, Sierra, and B. Lee, which I presume is the core outfield in August

April - Dietrich, Veteran, Ortega/Van Slyke/Cooper
May 8th - Dietrich, Brinson, Veteran/Ortega-Cooper-SVS if they break out and require playing time
Aug 1 - B. Lee, Brinson, Sierra, with Ortega and Cooper on the bench; Dietrich, Veteran, and SVS moved in July

Makes sense to me. Whoever wants to sign and get playing time to rehabilitate themselves. All these names sound good to me.

That is the plan. Looking to spend 2.5-3 million(plus incentives) on LH OF who can play CF/4th OF type and the same amount on a POSSIBLE SP(depends on what they get for JT)

They want to spend around 5 million(Not counting incentives)

As for Catcher I have heard Grandal or even AJ Ellis but more likely is Wallach/Telis and get either Severino OR Stassi in a JT deal

[lou]

All of that is fine to me.

It's a little bizarre though they are open to spending $20-30 million on payroll between now and July to field a 70+ win team with Bour, Castro, Straily, Ziegler, etc. I guess they just don't want to be generationally bad and think that's worth it versus moving the horde in July.

[tjfla]

Denbo is interested in trying to get a few more guys on Minor League deals(guys that normally would get ML deals) with the selling point being to improve stock and join a contender in August.

He is also looking at the DFA market

40 man Spots that could open very easily are Graves/Severino/Nola/Needy/Guerrero/Elieser/Telis

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All of that is fine to me.

It's a little bizarre though they are open to spending $20-30 million on payroll between now and July to field a 70+ win team with Bour, Castro, Straily, Ziegler, etc. I guess they just don't want to be generationally bad and think that's worth it versus moving the horde in July.

They would love to move Castro,Prado,Taz,Straily but the market isn't there right now. Bour,Bearclaw,Ziegler,DD all have value so not in any rush

Lets just say the Marlins will have alot of shoppers and for most the price will be cheap. OF/IF/Power Bats/SP/RP and the price will be guys ready by 2020.

One thing Denbo showed in the Yelich trade is he doesn't need to lose anymore salary. They would like to but arent gonna take some 26 yr old in A Ball who is crap just to get rid of someone like Jeff used to do

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By way on JT it looks like they are now having talks with BOTH Washington and Houston

Told Washington that if they offer Soto,JT is theirs
Told Houston that is they offer Tucker,JT is theirs

If they don't get either offer they would rather do something with Houston. They like Houston's prospects more AND gets JT out of the NL East. They wanna do something over next week or so

[Namaste]

All of that is fine to me.

It's a little bizarre though they are open to spending $20-30 million on payroll between now and July to field a 70+ win team with Bour, Castro, Straily, Ziegler, etc. I guess they just don't want to be generationally bad and think that's worth it versus moving the horde in July.

I said this here or over at the other place and someone disagreed with me.

For all of the payroll they’ve launched, new ownership is terrified of a 100-110 loss season.

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Is anyone else uncomfortable trading JT for the Fangraphs 50th best prospect in baseball?

Or are we assuming Kieboom comes with him as well?

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I feel like Washington or Atlanta would (hypothetically) never trade JT Realmuto for Soto and a bunch of high school sophomores.

[Nick]

It can't be Realmuto for Soto or Kieboom straight up. It's gotta be part of a 4 or 5 prospect package.

[tjfla]

I said this here or over at the other place and someone disagreed with me.

For all of the payroll they’ve launched, new ownership is terrified of a 100-110 loss season.

- - - - - - - - - -

Is anyone else uncomfortable trading JT for the Fangraphs 50th best prospect in baseball?

Or are we assuming Kieboom comes with him as well?

- - - - - - - - - -

I feel like Washington or Atlanta would (hypothetically) never trade JT Realmuto for Soto and a bunch of high school sophomores.

I am!!! I would rather have a Yelich type 4 player deal but this is what they are asking for.

Kieboom would NOT come with him-Soto,Severino and MAYBE a C+ Pitcher. Just like with Houston it would likely be Tucker,Stassi and Rights to Elieser. But this is what happens when u take that 1 Premium Prospect instead of 3 Top Ones(U GET LESS)

They are talking to Houston about 4/5 player deals as well and have had serious discussions with Washington on them too

[tjfla]

Looking at 4 deals(Name aren't 100%)

Wash-Soto/Severino/C+ Prospect
Wash-Kieboom/Fedde OR Romero/Antuna OR Garcia/Severino/C+ Prospect
Hou-Tucker/Stassi/Rights to Elieser
Hou-Alvarez/Martes OR Armenteros/Nova/Stassi/Rights to Elieser

[lou]

I said this here or over at the other place and someone disagreed with me.

For all of the payroll they’ve launched, new ownership is terrified of a 100-110 loss season.

- - - - - - - - - -

Is anyone else uncomfortable trading JT for the Fangraphs 50th best prospect in baseball?

Or are we assuming Kieboom comes with him as well?

- - - - - - - - - -

I feel like Washington or Atlanta would (hypothetically) never trade JT Realmuto for Soto and a bunch of high school sophomores.

I have seen you say that before, and I think you are right with their approach.

I have done the JT math a few times - he's worth approximately $90 million in surplus value, more if you assume an acquiring team signs him for 5+ seasons. Fangraphs prospect valuation - https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valu...100-prospects/.

I believe Tucker is a FV60 and Soto, in his best generous light, a FV55. That makes Tucker worth $60 and Soto $38.

They need a FV50 P (C. Perez, Paulino, H. Perez), a FV45 player (Stassi I guess?), and I guess rights to Elieser to make Tucker a mutually fair deal.

Absolutely need Kieboom (FV55-$38, being generous again as fangraphs loves him and it seems he is a FV50 elsewhere just because he was hurt) and Severino (FV45-$11) to get this to where it needs to be on Nationals side. Feel free to swap Wieters/Ziegler also.

So I'm fine with Soto as a centerpiece, the rest of the deal just has to add up.

I'd prefer Tucker though.

[tjfla]

By way I am just mention Elieser because he would be our type of SP we get in deals. If we include him it just means we can send him down to AA instead of him having to stay on the ML Team all year.

One thing about Houston is they have a few guys on drug suspensions. Paulino/Deetz are some so doubt we look at them

[lou]

Looking at 4 deals(Name aren't 100%)

Wash-Soto/Severino/C+ Prospect
Wash-Kieboom/Fedde OR Romero/Antuna OR Garcia/Severino/C+ Prospect
Hou-Tucker/Stassi/Rights to Elieser
Hou-Alvarez/Martes OR Armenteros/Nova/Stassi/Rights to Elieser

1 and 3 need another good mid level prospect
2 and 4 work value wise

You're banking too much on just Soto or Tucker if you do those deals as Severino and Stassi are backup catchers and you're getting a maybe RP. I'd rather spread the risk of those are the options as the top 3 guys in the other trades are pretty interesting.

[tjfla]

1 and 3 need another good mid level prospect
2 and 4 work value wise

You're banking too much on just Soto or Tucker if you do those deals as Severino and Stassi are backup catchers and you're getting a maybe RP. I'd rather spread the risk of those are the options as the top 3 guys in the other trades are pretty interesting.

Ya I am with u-I would spread the value out. Get 3 guys and more depth for the system

They are holding out for #1/3 and like #4 better than Washington's offer. NO CLUE if those are the specific names but that is the framework they have discussed

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For the Joey Bats fans

Craig MishVerified account @CraigMish · 2h2 hours ago

Re : Jose Bautista/Marlins questions. I have spoken about him on radio & read @JoeFrisaro on him. Idea is interesting but I think that’s where it ends. Have heard nothing. I have asked.

Like said heard same they prefer LHB that can play CF/4th OF

[lou]

Getting Tucker or Soto and two literal spare parts is pretty dumb, as a best case scenario is probably Tucker or Soto becoming a 3+ WAR player and that's what your trading. There is something to be said for getting a top end elite prospect (especially with Tucker), but Realmuto is still really good. There not only needs to be a centerpiece, there needs to be a good, better than a backup catcher, # 2 player also.