Miami Marlins 2016 Offseason Discussion Thread

[Erick]

You don't want Hammel?

Define "stink" please?

Jason Hammel's 4.42 career ERA.

[rmc523]

I feel like this has happened a few times over the past few years. Marlins give the highest dollar value offer to a big name free agent but get rejected.

I think part of it is players are afraid of the team being blown up/them traded the year after signing everyone like in 2012.

- - - - - - - - - -

What about taking a shot on Greg Holland?

[dim]

And I'm not buying the Hammel sucks thing. Up until August 16th he had a 2.75 ERA as a starter, putting him as a legit #2 starter for any team. He's been consistently at the very least a #3 starter for the past three years, and I can't imagine him getting long term money tied up.

If you're worried about the drop off in strikeouts and some of the other factors that might indicate decline that is fine, but saying he's bad because of his recent work isn't correct.

[Erick]

I think Hammel is going to want 3+ years in this terrible FA market for SP's. I don't want him or any of the "top" SP's available because I think they're all mediocre and not worth the money.

- - - - - - - - - -

Hammel isn't much better than the pile of mediocrity we've already assembled. Just stick with the current rotation & add pieces to the offense and bullpen.

[Namaste]

Jason Hammel's 4.42 career ERA.

He's been worth 5.6 wins over the last 3 years. We could do much worse than him in the off season.

[Nick]

Mish says Marlins offer was 5/86. With no state tax, that means Jensen took over $10m less to stay in LA

Take into consideration that our offer was almost certainly something like 6-8-24-24-24.

[rmc523]

Take into consideration that our offer was almost certainly something like 6-8-24-24-24.

Clearly a firesale or selling the team is coming.

- - - - - - - - - -

And I'm not buying the Hammel sucks thing. Up until August 16th he had a 2.75 ERA as a starter, putting him as a legit #2 starter for any team. He's been consistently at the very least a #3 starter for the past three years, and I can't imagine him getting long term money tied up.

If you're worried about the drop off in strikeouts and some of the other factors that might indicate decline that is fine, but saying he's bad because of his recent work isn't correct.

He'd also be coming to Marlins park, which can't hurt his numbers.

I'd be for a Hammel signing.

[Namaste]

I think Hammel is going to want 3+ years in this terrible FA market for SP's. I don't want him or any of the "top" SP's available because I think they're all mediocre and not worth the money.

- - - - - - - - - -

Hammel isn't much better than the pile of mediocrity we've already assembled. Just stick with the current rotation & add pieces to the offense and bullpen.

I hear the Marlins are very interested in Kenley Jansen.

[dim]

I don't see them getting all that much money (unless you see $40 million or so as big investments). $80 million for 70 innings a season was worrisome to me. Now re-distribute that money.

I didn't care for hearing Chacin's name thrown out initially, but a quick look at his past season and there's an crazy story there. He was awful to start the year, I believe got kicked out of the rotation with the Angels. I believe he got his job back and ended the season really strong. 1.33 ERA in his last 27 IP. If he's being signed as a reclamation project like Locke then I'm fine with it, which is what I'd imagine he'd be.

Feldman wasn't a starter in 2016 so it's a bit hard to judge how he'd be back in that role next season. He's had good numbers the past few years, so there's a chance that he's an under the radar value at the moment.

[Erick]

I don't see them getting all that much money (unless you see $40 million or so as big investments). $80 million for 70 innings a season was worrisome to me. Now re-distribute that money.

I didn't care for hearing Chacin's name thrown out initially, but a quick look at his past season and there's an crazy story there. He was awful to start the year, I believe got kicked out of the rotation with the Angels. I believe he got his job back and ended the season really strong. 1.33 ERA in his last 27 IP. If he's being signed as a reclamation project like Locke then I'm fine with it, which is what I'd imagine he'd be.

Feldman wasn't a starter in 2016 so it's a bit hard to judge how he'd be back in that role next season. He's had good numbers the past few years, so there's a chance that he's an under the radar value at the moment.

I'd rather pay $80 million for 70 elite innings than $40 million for 170 mediocre innings.

[dim]

Take into consideration that our offer was almost certainly something like 6-8-24-24-24.

Yeah, I'd have to wonder what the makeup of the deal was. I wouldn't go this far with it but there was likely something with that kind of deal made given the Marlins past offers. Was there a player option or team option thrown in at some point? I'm sure Jansen would've wanted some kind assurance that he wouldn't be moved early in his contract or that he'd have a way out of Miami if things got really bad.

Either way it is clear Miami was used by Jansen to up the Dodgers offer, which isn't surprising in the least. The more annoying part is the amount of time spent on this one player. While the free agent market is still very much alive and not a ton of pitchers have signed, there was a solid chance of the Marlins losing out on more than just Uehara waiting around for Jansen to decide.

[Erick]

We already tried this last offseason, to a greater extent, with Wei-Yei Chen. Let's not overpay starters because our starting rotation stinks. It only creates more problems. Now we're stuck with Chen's contract.

- - - - - - - - - -

Yeah, I'd have to wonder what the makeup of the deal was. I wouldn't go this far with it but there was likely something with that kind of deal made given the Marlins past offers. Was there a player option or team option thrown in at some point? I'm sure Jansen would've wanted some kind assurance that he wouldn't be moved early in his contract or that he'd have a way out of Miami if things got really bad.

Either way it is clear Miami was used by Jansen to up the Dodgers offer, which isn't surprising in the least. The more annoying part is the amount of time spent on this one player. While the free agent market is still very much alive and not a ton of pitchers have signed, there was a solid chance of the Marlins losing out on more than just Uehara waiting around for Jansen to decide.

It's a mediocre free agent class. We didn't lose out on much. It was worth the gamble.

[dim]

I'd rather pay $80 million for 70 elite innings than $40 million for 170 mediocre innings.

That is the question, isn't it? I'd say mediocre is somewhere in the 4.50 ERA range, and Hammel is likely to give us something more in the 3.80-4.20 ERA range. What is going to be your return on cost?

Hammel was worth around 1 win last season, 2 wins two years ago and 3 wins in 2014. His numbers are similar throughout, but there does seem to be a drop off given his age.

Jansen has consistently been worth around a win and a half to two wins during his career. Very consistent and good, but again doesn't make a huge impact on any given game since he goes one inning every other game.

If I were to give my own opinion I'm in favor of Hammel on a two year deal, but I'm not touching him as a player on four. I didn't want Jansen for five years on the payroll either. This team isn't good enough currently where they need to be putting veteran players on multi-year contracts.

Guys like Feldman, Chacin, Locke, Vazquez, Fister, etc... are likely the right choice for the Marlins this offseason. It's not going to make the fans happy, but 1 year deals with guys who had prior success but need to find it again are the right signings for a team that on paper shouldn't be more than a mid 70 win team next season at best. With those guys, you hope things break out and you get a #3 starter added to the rotation next season, and if they don't you can discard them with no investment in them long term.

A guy like Jansen comes with a long term commitment and a large amount of payroll tied up into him down the line, which prevents the team from going after any hypothetical players in those future years. That is what kept having me concerned with that deal and why I'm happy he isn't coming. Jansen is a fit for a playoff contender who needs him to close out October games. We'd be paying him $16 million a year to close out meaningless September games.

- - - - - - - - - -

Again, it isn't an overpay if there isn't any long term commitment. Chen's contract looks bad in retrospect, but I liked the move then and everybody else did because it was a team acquiring a needed part of what on paper could've very easily been a playoff team. With Jose gone and that amount of win total subtracted from the team, as well as the drop off in other position players that should be expected this season, I don't see how we can look at the 2017 team as one that should be expected to contend. Why spend like a contender when you aren't one?

[Erick]

That is the question, isn't it? I'd say mediocre is somewhere in the 4.50 ERA range, and Hammel is likely to give us something more in the 3.80-4.20 ERA range. What is going to be your return on cost?

Hammel was worth around 1 win last season, 2 wins two years ago and 3 wins in 2014. His numbers are similar throughout, but there does seem to be a drop off given his age.

Jansen has consistently been worth around a win and a half to two wins during his career. Very consistent and good, but again doesn't make a huge impact on any given game since he goes one inning every other game.

If I were to give my own opinion I'm in favor of Hammel on a two year deal, but I'm not touching him as a player on four. I didn't want Jansen for five years on the payroll either. This team isn't good enough currently where they need to be putting veteran players on multi-year contracts.

Guys like Feldman, Chacin, Locke, Vazquez, Fister, etc... are likely the right choice for the Marlins this offseason. It's not going to make the fans happy, but 1 year deals with guys who had prior success but need to find it again are the right signings for a team that on paper shouldn't be more than a mid 70 win team next season at best. With those guys, you hope things break out and you get a #3 starter added to the rotation next season, and if they don't you can discard them with no investment in them long term.

A guy like Jansen comes with a long term commitment and a large amount of payroll tied up into him down the line, which prevents the team from going after any hypothetical players in those future years. That is what kept having me concerned with that deal and why I'm happy he isn't coming. Jansen is a fit for a playoff contender who needs him to close out October games. We'd be paying him $16 million a year to close out meaningless September games.

For what it's worth, not all innings are created equally. Elite relievers are coming in to high-leverage situations.
WAR isn't a good stat for relievers. WPA is better. Even using WAR, Jansen was worth 3 wins last year, which shows just how good he is.

- - - - - - - - - -

Instead of Hammel, I'd go for two relievers. Ziegler and somebody else. Relievers seem easier to flip at the deadline imo. Ziegler's also had a very underrated, consistent career.

[dim]

I'm in favor of Ziegler as well as I've mentioned before. He's my #1 (and Uehara would've been my #2 but that's done now).

I still think we need starters. The rotation is flawed with Chen/Conley/Volquez/Koehler/Locke being the 5 right now. There needs to be one more guy who can push Koehler or Locke in long relief work and give us multiple options for when one of our reclamation projects bombs or gets injured.

I'm not saying it's Hammel or Fister, but it needs to be somebody out of the Hammel/Fister/Chacin/Feldman/etc... of the market. Not grabbing any of them now would come across as a failure after being willing to throw $86 million at Jansen. Take out Hammel and all those other guys combined won't cost more than $20 million on 1 year deals.

EDIT: For the record my preseason want list was to trade Ramos and Ozuna for that #2 starter, sign Josh Reddick to fill for Ozuna, and sign Fister and one of the Dickey/Peavy/De La Rosa/etc... back end crew to make up the rotation. Didn't anticipate the Marlins putting bullpen as a priority.

Now, my want list would simply be sign Fister and find another reclamation project who's willing to take a minor league deal, get Ziegler and one other decent reliever, get some bench bats and call it an offseason I guess. Still not a contender next season but at least they won't embarrass themselves. I still think this offseason is the right time to trade Ozuna and Ramos, but time will tell whether that is correct or not.