Miami Marlins 2016 Offseason Discussion Thread

[tjfla]

5 years = more overall money. A shorter term means lower overall money and a could mean a lower AAV while Loria has the team depending on how the contract is structured (aka the less he'd have to pay while having the team). Yes, he could backload it either way (and likely will), but at a lesser overall value/term, he could theoretically pay less in the first year before Loria sells.

Pretty much this. Structure of $. Also don't forget signing Jansen means he also saves another 2.5 million in 2017(Draft pick)

Thats y I said it will be interesting to see structure of these guys we sign. Seems 2 years is what he is going for which means he gets his ASG and hopes the team is good. Starts talking to people to sell the team and 2018 is his last year

[Nick]

Yeah Loria is the backloading king, if he's going to be gone within 2 years, he could just backload the shit out of a 5-year contract and no one would bat an eye because he's been doing it since 2002. What does AAV matter if there is no salary cap?

[tjfla]

Yeah Loria is the backloading king, if he's going to be gone within 2 years, he could just backload the shit out of a 5-year contract and no one would bat an eye because he's been doing it since 2002. What does AAV matter if there is no salary cap?

There is a luxury tax tho,could turn off new owners and maybe get a lower offer?? HAHA Who are we kidding Jeff ain't spending 190 million on baseball

[rmc523]

Yeah Loria is the backloading king, if he's going to be gone within 2 years, he could just backload the shit out of a 5-year contract and no one would bat an eye because he's been doing it since 2002. What does AAV matter if there is no salary cap?

I explained that in my previous post. Because it means he could theoretically pay even less in the first year

5/80

8,14,18,20,20

6/110
10.5,17,18.5,20,22,24

I'd also think if he does want to sell, he might not want to go too crazy salary wise (making crazy high salaries to any one player in any particular year) to make the books look better for a potential buyer.

[fish16]

Fuck the future of the team by letting the 14th pick in the 2017 draft go?

Ya. There is no need to give up a guy who will likely be our top prospect no matter who we pick for a closer when we have 2 guys already in our bullpen who would be above average closers and we are nowhere near being a contender. IF we're going to spend money to fix a strength, i'd rather we sign whoever the fuck the top hitter on the market is to a huge deal and just make a great lineup. It is a horrific utilization of limited resources. We pay almost no one a significant amount of money, but decide to finally spend on a position that is already a strength and at most will pitch 70 innings for us this year?

Again, I know Loria doesnt care about the future of this franchise because it looks like he will sell it in the next few years, but as a fan you should care that we are horribly misutilizing our limited assets to fortify a strength for a team that wont be in the playoffs anyway. And if we're going to trade him anyway, that changes things a little for me, but in that case just sign Chapman, not Jansen.

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And dont even get me started on giving away Carter Capps for 2 guys who at the time you could tell were not at all good/due for a huge regression. Shit trades like that are why we consistently have no depth and individual injuries ruin entire seasons, while well run teams like the cardinals have multiple times lost their ace and star players for entire seasons and still made the playoffs. My overall complaint is not the one move. Getting a great closer, sure, ok, i'll take it, but it's just the continued mismanagement and complete lack of a consistent plan that is the reason why we havent made the playoffs in 15 years.

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And if there was an overall plan for what direction we wanted to go in and I just happened to disagree with it, that would be completely different than the current situation of not having a plan/changing whatever plan they have every few months. You will never win in baseball like that against the smarter front offices out there. There is no plan to invest in young players for our farm system, there is no consistent plan to win via free agency or selling out and rebuilding. There is just absolutely 0 plan and there hasnt been one i guess maybe you could say since 2006? 2012 we have one plan, 2013 we are rebuilding again. You just can not win this way and we wont win this way until Loria sells the team or we get a new front office in here that will give Loria a plan and tell him to stay the fuck away from baseball operations.

I saw something earlier to the effect of Loria personally negotiating with these guys? Can this guy get the fuck away from the front office please. How many ways can he screw things up before he realizes he is in completely over his head with baseball decisions? He is the epitome of the worst owner in professional sports. At least other owners are so overbearing to the point where they spend a lot of money, or so cheap that they dont interrupt in on field moves at all. He is the worst possible combo, a cheap owner who feels the need to interject anyway.

Aside from championships being won by teams down here, will there be a rival for the best day in south florida sports history other than the day he sells this team?

/rant

[fish16]

If we're willing to spend money, i'd like to see us sign Chapman or Jansen, trade Ozuna and Ramos for a quality starter, sign Hammel/Fister, and then sign Gomez to take over CF, and move Koehler to the back end of the bullpen to pair with Barraclough as set up guys. Gomez to me is very intriguing as a possible free agent candidate. Very interested to see what he makes.

Dee
Prado
Yelich
Stanton
Gomez
Bour/Platoon
Realmuto
Hech

Ozuna/Ramos trade starter
Volquez
Conley
Hammel/Fister
Chen

With a bullpen of Jansen/Chapman, Barracough, Koehler, Ellington, Phelps, Dunn i guess unfortunately, Wittgren. Thats actually a very solid team, granted that's a lot of money spent. With Dietrich as kind of a super utility guy who can play a bunch of different spots (albeit it poorly).

[sports24/7]

They let Rodney leave, right? Not saying he's epic or anything, but him in the 6th/7th, Ramos in the 8th, Chapman in the 9th would be a super pen. Right now it's just an above average pen.

And wouldn't it be fun if Capps were coming back to that kind of bullpen?

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Honestly, not even top 20.

Rodney was pretty bad after the trade. I'm not sure he'd add much to the pen. He certainly wasn't worth the money. If they get Jansen, Barraclough/Ramos/Jansen is pretty damn good. I do agree on Capps, though.

[dim]

I do appreciate that they're trying to sign Fister. As I said before he had a 3.60 ERA for the first five months of the season before a September implosion. He's the perfect guy to get who has a solid chance of becoming a low end #3 ability starter for an affordable price (I'm guessing something similar to the Volquez deal).

As for Jansen, I'm not going to say it's killing the future of the franchise to sacrifice our first round pick. The team has recently drafted Tyler Kolek, Colin Moran, Josh Naylor, and Andrew Heaney and those guys have either been traded or aren't playing. But again, before that we've taken Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich, two cornerstones of the current team, with 1st round picks. A significant portion of the Chicago Cubs rebuild to a dynasty involved hitting on their first round picks, including Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Addison Russell (first rounder from the A's), and Kyle Schwarber. That is a big part of their starting team.

I think smart franchises know the value of the first round pick when you're dealing with limited resources. However, it seems Loria didn't learn from 2012 and wants to go crazy in a market that has an inflated sense of value this offseason. If he wants to sign Jansen and Melancon, then sell the team and let the next owner deal with the repercussions, so be it. If he's tired of losing and wants to pull a 2012 and go all in for a single season, finances be damned, that is on him.

I do wish that I knew Loria wanted to spend all his money for this year, because then I would've loved to see him fight to get an offensive player to add to the lineup more (like Cespedes). This team mistakingly thinks this offense is golden, when it was 27th in runs scored, and that was with players like Dietrich, Prado, Bour, and Realmuto playing over their expectations.

I believe the team sees the Marlins 4th best batting average in baseball last year and thinks it made a great offense. Never mind the fact the Marlins were one of 6 teams that couldn't slug over .400 last year.

The lineup lacks too much power and balance in the lineup to be successful in the league (even with a return to form from Stanton). The rotation is a basically unfixable problem because of the loss of Fernandez. And Loria feels the team can be fixed by offering $60 million and $80 million contracts to guys who pitch a total of 5% of the team's total innings pitched.

I don't think Jansen is a problem. It's the lack of foresight into the core problems of the team that is a bit frustrating.

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I actually think signing Hammel, Fister, and Volquez is enough to give the Marlins a decent enough offseason. Joining those guys with Conley and Chen provides a formidable rotation if all those guys reach their potential abilities. Part of the nearly $100 million in contracts to relievers could potentially be used to secure guys like Ramos and Ozuna to longer term contracts (although neither are free agents until 2019 and 2020 respectively).

Again, if Loria wants to spend then ditch I'm all for watching the wheels fall off when payroll balloons to $140 million plus when he's out of here. If we get a Mickey Arison, Mark Cuban or even Mitt Romney's crew who are ok with spending lavish amounts of money then this will have all be worth it.

[fish16]

I do appreciate that they're trying to sign Fister. As I said before he had a 3.60 ERA for the first five months of the season before a September implosion. He's the perfect guy to get who has a solid chance of becoming a low end #3 ability starter for an affordable price (I'm guessing something similar to the Volquez deal).

As for Jansen, I'm not going to say it's killing the future of the franchise to sacrifice our first round pick. The team has recently drafted Tyler Kolek, Colin Moran, Josh Naylor, and Andrew Heaney and those guys have either been traded or aren't playing. But again, before that we've taken Jose Fernandez and Christian Yelich, two cornerstones of the current team, with 1st round picks. A significant portion of the Chicago Cubs rebuild to a dynasty involved hitting on their first round picks, including Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Addison Russell (first rounder from the A's), and Kyle Schwarber. That is a big part of their starting team.

I think smart franchises know the value of the first round pick when you're dealing with limited resources. However, it seems Loria didn't learn from 2012 and wants to go crazy in a market that has an inflated sense of value this offseason. If he wants to sign Jansen and Melancon, then sell the team and let the next owner deal with the repercussions, so be it. If he's tired of losing and wants to pull a 2012 and go all in for a single season, finances be damned, that is on him.

I do wish that I knew Loria wanted to spend all his money for this year, because then I would've loved to see him fight to get an offensive player to add to the lineup more (like Cespedes). This team mistakingly thinks this offense is golden, when it was 27th in runs scored, and that was with players like Dietrich, Prado, Bour, and Realmuto playing over their expectations.

I believe the team sees the Marlins 4th best batting average in baseball last year and thinks it made a great offense. Never mind the fact the Marlins were one of 6 teams that couldn't slug over .400 last year.

The lineup lacks too much power and balance in the lineup to be successful in the league (even with a return to form from Stanton). The rotation is a basically unfixable problem because of the loss of Fernandez. And Loria feels the team can be fixed by offering $60 million and $80 million contracts to guys who pitch a total of 5% of the team's total innings pitched.

I don't think Jansen is a problem. It's the lack of foresight into the core problems of the team that is a bit frustrating.

Exactly. Self evaluation of their own assets is an enormous problem as well. And while I understand the whole our first round picks have largely sucked point, I dont think that means the answer is to sign free agents and give them away. The answer there would be to scout better. I didnt mean that giving away a first round pick is killing the future of the franchise because of that one move in particular, it is all of these moves in concert that has absolutely decimated our farm system. From giving away good cheap talent in bad trades, to not spending money in the IFA market, to trading away compensation picks for average at best players. It is just a combination of all those moves over the past 5 or so years that has resulted in absolutely nothing in our farm system, not surprisingly so.

Totally agreed on the power topic though. We cant have Dee, Hech, Realmuto, Prado all in the same lineup without adding another power bat. That is also another huge reason why even when Stanton struggles we suck when he is out. You've seen it each of the last however many years he's gotten hurt, when he is out our bats are pathetic because it takes way to many things to happen to score a run. I think the answer is to get a power platoon bat like Carter to complement Bour and then sign a CF who is a relatively big power bat as well if we trade Ozuna. If not, i'd like to see us ignore baseball norms with our number 1 and 2 hitters and just put Yelich 2 and Stanton 3. There is no need to have 2 guys getting AB's before those 2 hit. I'm of the opinion of getting them as many AB's as possible over the course of the year.

As for ownership, I might legitimately cry if Cuban or another huge billionaire like that buys the team. I love the heat but i dont think Arison has enough money to want to buy the team, and he's also been somewhat frugal at times with the heat.

[nny]

Who's this about?

oops telis in response to Dim I didn't realize there was another page

[Swifty]

Exactly. Self evaluation of their own assets is an enormous problem as well. And while I understand the whole our first round picks have largely sucked point, I dont think that means the answer is to sign free agents and give them away. The answer there would be to scout better. I didnt mean that giving away a first round pick is killing the future of the franchise because of that one move in particular, it is all of these moves in concert that has absolutely decimated our farm system. From giving away good cheap talent in bad trades, to not spending money in the IFA market, to trading away compensation picks for average at best players. It is just a combination of all those moves over the past 5 or so years that has resulted in absolutely nothing in our farm system, not surprisingly so.

Totally agreed on the power topic though. We cant have Dee, Hech, Realmuto, Prado all in the same lineup without adding another power bat. That is also another huge reason why even when Stanton struggles we suck when he is out. You've seen it each of the last however many years he's gotten hurt, when he is out our bats are pathetic because it takes way to many things to happen to score a run. I think the answer is to get a power platoon bat like Carter to complement Bour and then sign a CF who is a relatively big power bat as well if we trade Ozuna. If not, i'd like to see us ignore baseball norms with our number 1 and 2 hitters and just put Yelich 2 and Stanton 3. There is no need to have 2 guys getting AB's before those 2 hit. I'm of the opinion of getting them as many AB's as possible over the course of the year.

As for ownership, I might legitimately cry if Cuban or another huge billionaire like that buys the team. I love the heat but i dont think Arison has enough money to want to buy the team, and he's also been somewhat frugal at times with the heat.

Arison's net worth is about $7 billion. Or more than Mark Henry and Drayton Mclane combined. I think he'd be OK.

[fish16]

Arison's net worth is about $7 billion. Or more than Mark Henry and Drayton Mclane combined. I think he'd be OK.

Never said he'd be a bad owner. I said idk how willing he would be to spend, especially if he would be losing money with limited fans showing up to the games. He has done several things as the heat owner that shows a tendency to be a little frugal at times, but it obviously doesn compare to the frugality of Loria.

[Namaste]

Ya. There is no need to give up a guy who will likely be our top prospect no matter who we pick for a closer when we have 2 guys already in our bullpen who would be above average closers and we are nowhere near being a contender. IF we're going to spend money to fix a strength, i'd rather we sign whoever the fuck the top hitter on the market is to a huge deal and just make a great lineup. It is a horrific utilization of limited resources. We pay almost no one a significant amount of money, but decide to finally spend on a position that is already a strength and at most will pitch 70 innings for us this year?

Again, I know Loria doesnt care about the future of this franchise because it looks like he will sell it in the next few years, but as a fan you should care that we are horribly misutilizing our limited assets to fortify a strength for a team that wont be in the playoffs anyway. And if we're going to trade him anyway, that changes things a little for me, but in that case just sign Chapman, not Jansen.

- - - - - - - - - -

And dont even get me started on giving away Carter Capps for 2 guys who at the time you could tell were not at all good/due for a huge regression. Shit trades like that are why we consistently have no depth and individual injuries ruin entire seasons, while well run teams like the cardinals have multiple times lost their ace and star players for entire seasons and still made the playoffs. My overall complaint is not the one move. Getting a great closer, sure, ok, i'll take it, but it's just the continued mismanagement and complete lack of a consistent plan that is the reason why we havent made the playoffs in 15 years.

- - - - - - - - - -

And if there was an overall plan for what direction we wanted to go in and I just happened to disagree with it, that would be completely different than the current situation of not having a plan/changing whatever plan they have every few months. You will never win in baseball like that against the smarter front offices out there. There is no plan to invest in young players for our farm system, there is no consistent plan to win via free agency or selling out and rebuilding. There is just absolutely 0 plan and there hasnt been one i guess maybe you could say since 2006? 2012 we have one plan, 2013 we are rebuilding again. You just can not win this way and we wont win this way until Loria sells the team or we get a new front office in here that will give Loria a plan and tell him to stay the fuck away from baseball operations.

I saw something earlier to the effect of Loria personally negotiating with these guys? Can this guy get the fuck away from the front office please. How many ways can he screw things up before he realizes he is in completely over his head with baseball decisions? He is the epitome of the worst owner in professional sports. At least other owners are so overbearing to the point where they spend a lot of money, or so cheap that they dont interrupt in on field moves at all. He is the worst possible combo, a cheap owner who feels the need to interject anyway.

Aside from championships being won by teams down here, will there be a rival for the best day in south florida sports history other than the day he sells this team?

/rant

With all due respect to a fellow Marlins fan, I'm not reading all of that.

[sports24/7]

Never said he'd be a bad owner. I said idk how willing he would be to spend, especially if he would be losing money with limited fans showing up to the games. He has done several things as the heat owner that shows a tendency to be a little frugal at times, but it obviously doesn compare to the frugality of Loria.

Frugal? He's paid more luxury tax money than any other owner in the league if I'm not mistaken. They paid the repeater tax multiple times and just last year got under the tax threshold. I wouldn't worry about him being frugal. That guy is about as 1st class as it gets in professional sports. I'm not sure the Marlins could find a better owner.

[dim]

oops telis in response to Dim I didn't realize there was another page

I do disagree with the argument that we can for sure be able to analyze defensive metrics just yet. They're all over the place and people disagree all the time on them.

But as I stated earlier I think for catcher's we give a bit more leeway. It's hard to find ones that can hit and I think there is still upside with Telis. He's a solid contact hitter and he's been consistently around the same type of hitter his entire minor league career. While there's room for regression in a call up to the majors I think there's reason to believe he'd be able to be a low .700 OPS hitter in baseball, putting him around the middle of MLB catchers. I see that as valuable for some other team. I see a way that Telis can be leveraged into a valuable piece. If the Marlins don't see it I don't think they are trying hard enough.

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With all due respect to a fellow Marlins fan, I'm not reading all of that.

If you don't want to read it then don't. No reason to say it and make it seem like putting out decently though out and long written posts a bad thing.