Will the Marlins Trade Uggla?

[Swifty]

Because if we want Cantu, we have him, even if we want Johnson, there's no guarantee he comes back on the terms we want.

Plus, I think he's a better fit for the Red Sox than any of the free agent or trade targets. The other big money clubs will go hard after Dunn, Gonzalez, Fielder, take a flier on Delgado. Nick is the biggest embodiment of what the Red Sox want to do that's not on their roster, and they've been in/still are in the market for a 1B. Too much there for me to like our chances of keeping him.

[lou]

I don't necessarily disagree with any of the reasoning on why to keep Cody first etc etc, but Uggla is going to finish with at least 50 OPS points over Hudson, and both Hudson and Abreu are older. Also, you retain Uggla's rights going into 2011 without a guaranteed salary, so you have more control over the situation. He's clearly a much more valuable property by any level of analysis. So the trade, you get Uggla for two seasons at let's say $18 million and change on a 2 year contract (7-11ish) and two first round picks when you offer him arb post 2011 and he turns it down for a 3 year deal somewhere. Is that worth a "Tim Aldersen" centerpiece to a franchise needing a legit power bat? I think easily. I know you hate the perpetually rebuilding thing, but you gotta know 2012 is the target year and we'll be 'content' taking MILB pieces back for 2 years down the road if it means we get an overall better package for Uggla. Teams will be much less reluctant to trade away pieces that aren't helping them for a few years. Kind of sucks for us, but that's just how it's going to be this last volley of trades before new stadium hits.

The entire AL central is going to look into him. Minnesota 2B have a .557 OPS this year. Uggla makes them a LOCK for the playoffs in that shitty division if they trade us no pitchers that help their 25 man. Not to mention he would look pretty damn sexy with all those lefties up there. Seattle will be sniffing around too. You could even see the Rays doing it to get more pop and shift Zobrist somewhere else. And then there is always, "The Coletti Factor." Which I have given up trying to predict because he's insane. Cubs 2B have a .683 OPS this year as well. There's going to be a bunch of teams after him even with a $7.5-8 million price tag. This is going to be fine. I don't expect getting much (and by much, I mean a Leo Nunez or Jake Smolinski level of compensation at absolute absolute best) for Cantu/Hermida/Nunez, but Uggla is going to get us something pretty cool.

[Swifty]

Where this is going now is a part of the game I hate about fandom and message boards. The hypothetical trade. Sure it's an interesting notion to try to craft trades but we don't know how they're valued internally (like, for example the Loria-Pavano thing in the Floyd trade), we don't know what medical history looks like, on and on and on. To me, it's a waste of time to come up with Uggla for ___ and ____.

I agree with you about the Twins, when I was crafting the Uggla scenario and how he had no value, I honestly pegged the Cubs as the favorites. I don't see Tampa as viable. If they're so scared of having to pay Kazmir next year that they basically gave him away, I doubt that they're in on Uggla at his arbitration rate.

However, here's my thought without hashing out a trade. The Twins'll take him, they've got the new facility, they'll spend some cash; sandwich him behind Mauer and in front of Morneau and that's f'ing scary. He makes a ton of sense for him, but they're not going to pay him AND give us something great. They'll give us something decent. Maybe a little better than Bowyer/Tyler, but not by much. The Cubs would love to get him, Beinfest and Hendry seem to love dealing with each other, the Cubs system, however, doesn't help us a whole lot. We're not getting Vitters or Smardzija, other than that, the only guys worth a look are right handed pitching and the ones with actual ceilings, like Jay Jackson, are probably off limits because they're supposedly going to take the best offer on the table for Zambrano.

Actually, maybe that's not such a bad idea, if they eat some salary on Zambrano maybe we can be a facilitator with Uggla and pull a Mike Hampton trade off again and get something that's worthwhile.

Still though, I think if you deal Uggla you have to be sure you get something that will without question help in 2010, and I don't think the Cubs have that in their system (or at least have that and are willing to deal it).

[lou]

Where this is going now is a part of the game I hate about fandom and message boards. The hypothetical trade. Sure it's an interesting notion to try to craft trades but we don't know how they're valued internally (like, for example the Loria-Pavano thing in the Floyd trade), we don't know what medical history looks like, on and on and on. To me, it's a waste of time to come up with Uggla for ___ and ____.

I agree with you about the Twins, when I was crafting the Uggla scenario and how he had no value, I honestly pegged the Cubs as the favorites. I don't see Tampa as viable. If they're so scared of having to pay Kazmir next year that they basically gave him away, I doubt that they're in on Uggla at his arbitration rate.

However, here's my thought without hashing out a trade. The Twins'll take him, they've got the new facility, they'll spend some cash; sandwich him behind Mauer and in front of Morneau and that's f'ing scary. He makes a ton of sense for him, but they're not going to pay him AND give us something great. They'll give us something decent. Maybe a little better than Bowyer/Tyler, but not by much. The Cubs would love to get him, Beinfest and Hendry seem to love dealing with each other, the Cubs system, however, doesn't help us a whole lot. We're not getting Vitters or Smardzija, other than that, the only guys worth a look are right handed pitching and the ones with actual ceilings, like Jay Jackson, are probably off limits because they're supposedly going to take the best offer on the table for Zambrano.

Actually, maybe that's not such a bad idea, if they eat some salary on Zambrano maybe we can be a facilitator with Uggla and pull a Mike Hampton trade off again and get something that's worthwhile.

Still though, I think if you deal Uggla you have to be sure you get something that will without question help in 2010, and I don't think the Cubs have that in their system (or at least have that and are willing to deal it).

Which is why I didn't make any hypothetical trades. Not that I have not been guilty of that before though. An 'Aldersen' is the value I expect, a good prospect that projects to be a 2/3 SP, as the centerpiece of a trade.

Second, Tampa cleared space so they can have a chance at Crawford/Pena when they are FA in 2011, while accounting for potential huge first year arbitrations with Garza and Zobrist, and 5/6 arbitrations with Bartlett, and BJ. They have money in the immediacy. They have over $13 million coming off the books with just Bradford, Percival, Shouse, Nelson, and Iwamura. All of those guys aren't important and are all basically replaced right now. Coupled with Kazmir, that's $21+ off the books. And I'm ignoring all the little Springer, Zaun, etc guys who will be gone. You're salary increases to Burrel, Pena, Crawford, Wheeler, Navarro, Shields, Balfour, and Aybar is going to just top $8 million, and you have Bartlett and BJ going into arbitration so maybe an extra $2 million each so the team goes up $12. Basically, if the Rays match 2009 salary in 2010, they have $8-10 million to spend on a big bat and rally around Garza, Shields, Price, Niemann, and W. Davis. Not trying to really argue with this, but they are certainly viable as their entire team is basically set internally. Maybe signing OHud for a year, or choosing to go OF instead of 2B and leaving Zobrist at the alternate, is a better idea. But they could entertain the idea of Uggla if they just want to bomb people out. Anyways...

As for your last sentence, I don't think the Marlins are going to care about helping 2010 when they trade him. I know you disagree, but we have a 80+ win team on paper going into 2010 if we keep 2 arb bats/NJ, and the difference between contending or not regardless of who are the position players are "Volstad, Miller, and West." Nothing we get for Uggla, save for a MLB ready # 2 SP, is going to take this team to the next level. And I think we both would agree, we're not getting a MLB ready # 2 SP for Uggla in a trade. The days of dreaming of Matt Cain ended about 2 years ago.

So how does it play out? Best case scenario is a AA prospect that can contribute in a West kind of way, and we can pencil into the 2011 rotation. But if it's younger and we have to wait for the stadium, I still don't think that's a bad trade. We're going to do A LOT better than a Bowyer/Tyler deal. I'd expect Bowyer/Tyler for Cantu. Even in this market.

[Metes]

Where this is going now is a part of the game I hate about fandom and message boards. The hypothetical trade. Sure it's an interesting notion to try to craft trades but we don't know how they're valued internally (like, for example the Loria-Pavano thing in the Floyd trade), we don't know what medical history looks like, on and on and on. To me, it's a waste of time to come up with Uggla for ___ and ____.

This is simply not true. I fully believe tfjla that we could have gotten Jon Sanchez and Matt Cain for Uggla and Chris Seddon. It's just overwhelmingly clear that they wanted to do that deal, and we fucked it up and ruined our season, and probably our team for the next 4-5 years by missing that opportunity.

[Swifty]

Which is why I didn't make any hypothetical trades. Not that I have not been guilty of that before though. An 'Aldersen' is the value I expect, a good prospect that projects to be a 2/3 SP, as the centerpiece of a trade.

Second, Tampa cleared space so they can have a chance at Crawford/Pena when they are FA in 2011, while accounting for potential huge first year arbitrations with Garza and Zobrist, and 5/6 arbitrations with Bartlett, and BJ. They have money in the immediacy. They have over $13 million coming off the books with just Bradford, Percival, Shouse, Nelson, and Iwamura. All of those guys aren't important and are all basically replaced right now. Coupled with Kazmir, that's $21+ off the books. And I'm ignoring all the little Springer, Zaun, etc guys who will be gone. You're salary increases to Burrel, Pena, Crawford, Wheeler, Navarro, Shields, Balfour, and Aybar is going to just top $8 million, and you have Bartlett and BJ going into arbitration so maybe an extra $2 million each so the team goes up $12. Basically, if the Rays match 2009 salary in 2010, they have $8-10 million to spend on a big bat and rally around Garza, Shields, Price, Niemann, and W. Davis. Not trying to really argue with this, but they are certainly viable as their entire team is basically set internally. Maybe signing OHud for a year, or choosing to go OF instead of 2B and leaving Zobrist at the alternate, is a better idea. But they could entertain the idea of Uggla if they just want to bomb people out. Anyways...

As for your last sentence, I don't think the Marlins are going to care about helping 2010 when they trade him. I know you disagree, but we have a 80+ win team on paper going into 2010 if we keep 2 arb bats/NJ, and the difference between contending or not regardless of who are the position players are "Volstad, Miller, and West." Nothing we get for Uggla, save for a MLB ready # 2 SP, is going to take this team to the next level. And I think we both would agree, we're not getting a MLB ready # 2 SP for Uggla in a trade. The days of dreaming of Matt Cain ended about 2 years ago.

So how does it play out? Best case scenario is a AA prospect that can contribute in a West kind of way, and we can pencil into the 2011 rotation. But if it's younger and we have to wait for the stadium, I still don't think that's a bad trade. We're going to do A LOT better than a Bowyer/Tyler deal. I'd expect Bowyer/Tyler for Cantu. Even in this market.

Except if you're selling the team on Uggla as two draft picks post 2011, where do the Rays come in? If they're only looking in the "immediacy" why do they try to mess up a system that's becoming self-sustaining for a player who, no doubt helps, will return value to the organization when the Rays are the most vulnerable (and Uggla happens to be the most expensive)

And lastly I think we have drastically different opinions on what is a "nice" return and I'll just leave it at that.

[lou]

Except if you're selling the team on Uggla as two draft picks post 2011, where do the Rays come in? If they're only looking in the "immediacy" why do they try to mess up a system that's becoming self-sustaining for a player who, no doubt helps, will return value to the organization when the Rays are the most vulnerable (and Uggla happens to be the most expensive)

And lastly I think we have drastically different opinions on what is a "nice" return and I'll just leave it at that.

They can afford it for two years. They probably won't resign Pena and Crawford as is because they'll be super expensive, so there's $20 million bucks and since you've been smart and bought out Shields, Longoria, Price, and have to imagine they give Garza 5-6 years this offseason, your payroll is in great shape even if Zobrist, Bartlett, and BJ aren't currently accounted for. Everyone, and I mean everyone, else is cheap. Plus, how cool do the Rays look if they get five first round picks in 2011 (Crawford, Pena), and five more in 2012 (Bartlett, Hypothetically Uggla). They would have a time bomb waiting to go off in 2015, and they have the horde of starters now (Shields, Garza, Price, Niemann, Davis, Moore, Hellickson, Talbot, McGee, Sonnastine, Barnese, etc) right now so they'll be good the entire time. I LOVE the Rays right now from personnel, to payroll, to everything. But this is neither here not there, they could do it if they wanted to. Maybe a 1 year FA is a better idea, but they could view absolutely loading up on picks is the way to beat NYY/BOS longterm. I'm just saying, there are plenty of spots to put Uggla next year with a trade. At least half the teams in baseball would be interested, and at least 2 would take it seriously. You only need 2 to get the value.

What is a nice return for you? If we get a SP that projects to be at least a 3 within a few years, and a nice complimentary piece or two like a young young Smolinski/Kaminska prospect and a Tim Wood, I think that's a pretty big win for us. So... West, Smolinski, Wood at the start of the 2009 season (them being in AA, A, and AA is what I'm going for here). That's what I think is "nice." And I think it's relatively going to happen. Someone is going to bite and go for it.

[Swifty]

I think nice is shifting value from an area of strength (in our case MI) to an area with a lack of depth (in our case, corner players). I'd love it, if we have to trade Uggla, if it puts us in a position to not have to worry about anything like being hitched to good not great players like Cantu.

[BigGameFish]

I'd like to see them get at least a quality veteran pitcher and a nice prospect

[Swifty]

And I certainly don't want to keep throwing good resources after bad to try to bail out our pitching situation. Go out and get someone established or just stay with what we've got.

[Ramp]

I hope they bring in a shortstop that cares

[nny]

Secondly, let's say the Marlins trade Hermida, Cantu, Anibal, Leo, Amezaga, and release Proctor.

*snip snip snip*

What I hate most about this team is that 15 mil more on one year FA contracts and they're probably the favorites to win the NL east. Get either a 1b or a LF you can count on, a good rotation piece, and a good bullpen arm. The only thing thing the market really lacks is a 1 year bullpen piece, but could try and trade for one, maybe try and talk to SD again about Bell or something.

What "sucks" even more is, we could say we'll spend 15 mil more in '10 and spend 15 mil less in '11 so it's not like "loria please spend 15 more mil" but instead it's dividing the funds differently. I mean our '11 team could essentially be our '06 team in terms of payroll, with Hanley and JJ taking on the roles of Hanley and Willis, and then spend a few mil to keep one of the arbitration arms. We could run out a 30 mil team in '11 w/o hitch really.

And the craziest thing about it is that, assuming Logan gets '10 playing time, we'd only be starting 3 rookies on offense (Dominguez, Stanton, and whoever takes the 3rd OF spot). With Volstad, West, JJ, and one arbitration arm, that's only one rookie starting SP. The biggest problem would definitely be in our bullpen but it should still be "ok enough." We certainly likely wouldn't compete but it wouldn't be a bad team and sets us up well.

But we can't do that because the stadium opens '12, and like fuck we're going to turn '11 into '06 considering that. Plus even with how aggressive they've been with Doming and Stanton it's still assuming a lot to say they'll be ready to start in '11.

[lou]

What I hate most about this team is that 15 mil more on one year FA contracts and they're probably the favorites to win the NL east. Get either a 1b or a LF you can count on, a good rotation piece, and a good bullpen arm. The only thing thing the market really lacks is a 1 year bullpen piece, but could try and trade for one, maybe try and talk to SD again about Bell or something.

What "sucks" even more is, we could say we'll spend 15 mil more in '10 and spend 15 mil less in '11 so it's not like "loria please spend 15 more mil" but instead it's dividing the funds differently. I mean our '11 team could essentially be our '06 team in terms of payroll, with Hanley and JJ taking on the roles of Hanley and Willis, and then spend a few mil to keep one of the arbitration arms. We could run out a 30 mil team in '11 w/o hitch really.

And the craziest thing about it is that, assuming Logan gets '10 playing time, we'd only be starting 3 rookies on offense (Dominguez, Stanton, and whoever takes the 3rd OF spot). With Volstad, West, JJ, and one arbitration arm, that's only one rookie starting SP. The biggest problem would definitely be in our bullpen but it should still be "ok enough." We certainly likely wouldn't compete but it wouldn't be a bad team and sets us up well.

But we can't do that because the stadium opens '12, and like fuck we're going to turn '11 into '06 considering that. Plus even with how aggressive they've been with Doming and Stanton it's still assuming a lot to say they'll be ready to start in '11.

Absolutely. A $60 million Marlins team that keeps NJ, Uggla, Cantu, Ross, Anibal, Nunez, and adds a Penny/Pavano/Smoltz type for 20-25 starts, is a monstrous team. They'd have to be the favorites. For the record, a $60 million payroll would rank 27th in baseball in 2009 dollars.

C John Baker $415,000
1B Nick Johnson $6,000,000
2B Dan Uggla $8,000,000
3B Jorge Cantu $6,000,000
SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000
LF Chris Coghlan $405,000
CF Cameron Maybin $405,000
RF Cody Ross $4,200,000
B Emilio Bonifacio $415,000
B Wes Helms $950,000
B Ronny Paulino $880,000
B Brett Carroll $415,000
B Veteran Bat /Gaby $415,000

SP Josh Johnson $5,500,000
SP Ricky Nolasco $4,250,000
SP Andrew Miller $2,000,000
SP Anibal Sanchez $1,000,000
SP Pavano/Penny $6,000,000
RP Leo Nunez $2,000,000
RP Matt Lindstrom $1,600,000
RP Reynel Pinto $850,000
RP Dan Meyer $415,000
RP Rick Vanden Hurk $415,000
RP Brian Sanches $415,000
RP Burke Badenhop $415,000

$60,360,000

Notice Volstad and West are in the minors here. I'm not advocating that, I'm just saying we'd have a ridiculous amount of options. With that kind of payroll. We could even trim this A LOT by getting rid of one of NJ/Cantu, Nunez, and Anibal, and replacing them with Gaby Sanchez, Tim Wood, and Volstad. That would be a sub $55 million team and totally nuts.

---

And Swift, a lack of depth in corner players? I don't think you trade your "best" trading chip in Uggla for a player that will be pushed out for Morrison, Stanton, and Dominguez within a year or two. I think you target pitching and more pitching with every trade, and you just figure out how to stop gap 3B if Cantu goes, or use Gaby, etc.

[wanks1212]

However, here's my thought without hashing out a trade. The Twins'll take him, they've got the new facility, they'll spend some cash; sandwich him behind Mauer and in front of Morneau and that's f'ing scary. He makes a ton of sense for him, but they're not going to pay him AND give us something great. They'll give us something decent. Maybe a little better than Bowyer/Tyler, but not by much.

\nitpick

Uggla fits the Twins really well in terms of "getting better," but they probably can't afford him for 2010/2011.

In 2010 they already owe Morneau $15, Nathan just over $11, Mauer $12.5, Cuddyer roughly $9.5, Kubel just over $4, Punto $4 , and Baker $3. Which already puts them at just under $60. And that's before any of the arby guys (Liriano, Perkins, Gomez, Harris, Slowey, Guerrier, Crain, although Crain's probably DFA'd) are considered. And they still have holes at SS, 3B (although Valencia probably takes that position, even though he sucks) and in the bullpen. Taking on Uggla for around $8 mil in 2010 kinda screws them over.

And if they're going to shell out ~$22-$25 million for Mauer it's not pretty in 2011 either. Unless they plan on going with an $85 million payroll, Uggla probably doesn't work there unless the Marlins take on some salary, and let's be honest, that's not happening.

And their pitching prospects in the high minors aren't even great, unless you see something in Anthony Swarzak or Tyler Robertson or even that Gutierrez kid (I think that's his name) who used to be the Miami closer.

/nitpick

(can't wait to see the Twins move some money around, pull the trigger on this, and make me look like a dumbass)

[Fish and Chips]

in other marlins trade related news

There's a possibility the Marlins will try to deal Josh Johnson this winter even though he won't be a free agent until after 2011. Johnson is not anticipated to take a hometown discount to stay in Florida.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/0...h-johnson.html

If this happens i gonna start eating little children