Cameron Maybin Thread: Maybin Some Discussion, Maybin Some Fighting, It's All Good!

[nny]

Just sticking to fucking statistics all the time doesn't show shit and to simply say he is better because his BABIP did this also doesn't necessarily explain why things got better just like perhaps saying, must've fixed his swing might not be right. Might be right though.

And I don't see this at all lol.

A players BABIP goes up, a player's OPS goes up. So how does a player BABIP not going up explain why his OPS went up?

Maybe his BABIP went up because he changed his swing. Who knows. Fact remains his BABIP went up.
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huh?

I don't even understand what you're trying to say

[Party]

there's a difference between a ML coach and joe smoe in front of a computer
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what

There is a difference between Joe Smoe and Johnny the lifelong baseball participant/fan sitting in front of his computer.

If we are going to use that reasoning, discussion should be shut down on this site because Larry B is an ML general manager with opinions that are often challenged on this website.

[Beef]

You're talking about the reason why a guy has more success. You probably don't have success because your BABIP goes up. Your BABIP goes up because you have perhaps changed something with your swing or approach that has allowed for the success. I realize that you tend to only stick 100% to numbers and stuff to explain anything, but its kinda weird and silly to say this guy's OPS went up because his BABIP did. Well no shit.... ? My GPA is higher because my grades went up

[Swifty]

Swift, wanna go to spring training games next year with me and be the guys from Major League that only talk about how much they hate the team and how much the team sucks?

Yes, yes I do.

I aspire to be them...one day. I nominate Matt Lindstrom to be "vile thing."

[Bobbob1313]

There is a difference between Joe Smoe and Johnny the lifelong baseball participant/fan sitting in front of his computer.

If we are going to use that reasoning, discussion should be shut down on this site because Larry B is an ML general manager with opinions that are often challenged on this website.

I will say if most of your argument is based on "I don't like his swing", you'd better have more in reserve than that, because it's a pretty crap way to make your argument, and it makes for not good debate because there's no way to disprove it and no way to prove it.

[nny]

There is a difference between Joe Smoe and Johnny the lifelong baseball participant/fan sitting in front of his computer.

If we are going to use that reasoning, discussion should be shut down on this site because Larry B is an ML general manager with opinions that are often challenged on this website.

And if Johnny the lifelong baseball fan was actually any good he wouldn't be sitting in front of his computer.

I don't really care for visual scouting from fans really, that's all it comes down to. Just because they aren't pro doesn't mean they aren't good, and just because somebody is pro doesn't mean they are good, but chances are, the pro knows what he's gonna be talking about, the non-pro doesn't.
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You're talking about the reason why a guy has more success. You probably don't have success because your BABIP goes up. Your BABIP goes up because you have perhaps changed something with your swing or approach that has allowed for the success. I realize that you tend to only stick 100% to numbers and stuff to explain anything, but its kinda weird and silly to say this guy's OPS went up because his BABIP did. Well no shit.... ? My GPA is higher because my grades went up

And well no shit.... ? Back at you. BABIP and stuff changes based off different approaches, changes in swing, physical growth, ect. .....And? Shouldn't that be rather obvious?

When swift or any one else here is a pro coach I'll let their opinion on something like that have merit.

[wanks1212]

If you want to bash a player, saying "I don't like his swing" doesn't work.

But saying "I don't like his swing because of this and this and this and this and all those four things make it likely he won't be able to consistently hit the ball hard at the ML level" is a fine argument, provided that "this and this and this and this" are all legitimate problems with a player's swing that would lead to him not hitting the ball hard.

[Beef]

When nny starts to get paid for something other than menial jobs I'll start to pay any sort of attention and accept any of what he claims are likely future stats and future team outcomes based on his projections

?

[nny]

When nny starts to get paid for something other than menial jobs I'll start to pay any sort of attention and accept any of what he claims are likely future stats and future team outcomes based on his projections

?

When did I ever claim that I should be listened to? I sure as fuck hope that would be the case on your part lol. There's a reason people post here and aren't paid for their opinion.

[Beef]

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And well no shit.... ? Back at you. BABIP and stuff changes based off different approaches, changes in swing, physical growth, ect. .....And? Shouldn't that be rather obvious?

When swift or any one else here is a pro coach I'll let their opinion on something like that have merit.

So then how does saying his OPS went up because his BABIP went up actually explain what changed with the guy?

My GPA is higher because my grades went up.

Where does that tell you what happened to cause my grades to go up?

Where is BABIP telling you what changed with a guy's swing, approach, size, speed, etc?

[wanks1212]

And if Johnny the lifelong baseball fan was actually any good he wouldn't be sitting in front of his computer.

I don't really care for visual scouting from fans really, that's all it comes down to. Just because they aren't pro doesn't mean they aren't good, and just because somebody is pro doesn't mean they are good, but chances are, the pro knows what he's gonna be talking about, the non-pro doesn't.

Well, but at the same time then can't you just say "I don't care for statistical analysis from fans" and only rely on guys like Neyer/Cameron/MLB FO people, becuase the pro knows what he's gonna be talking about, the non-pro doesn't? Or, "I don't care from prospect analysis from Ramp" and only rely on guys like Sickels? Should we just defer to professionals in every level of analysis and disregard any argument made by a fan that doesn't cite to a "professional."

I'm not saying that Swift (or anyone on this board) is inherently qualified to be judging an MLB player from a scouting perspective. But I wouldn't rule out that it's POSSIBLE for someone from this board to make the same observations that a scout would, in limited circumstances and with a large enough sample size.

I mean, if we had a guy where who was like a longtime player/high school/small college coach, woudl he not be qualified to scout a guy just b/c he's not a pro? Is his opinion disregarded? Where is the line drawn?

[nny]

So then how does saying his OPS went up because his BABIP went up actually explain what changed with the guy?

My GPA is higher because my grades went up.

Where does that tell you what happened to cause my grades to go up?

Where is BABIP telling you what changed with a guy's swing, approach, size, speed, etc?

It doesn't and I never claimed it did?

Although in the case of approach that would normally show in BB/K rates, size would be in power numbers, speed would be in speed numbers, ect.

But in a case of a changed swing, you can't say somebody changed their swing based off numbers. I don't know why you're arguing something I never said.
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Well, but at the same time then can't you just say "I don't care for statistical analysis from fans" and only rely on guys like Neyer/Cameron/MLB FO people, becuase the pro knows what he's gonna be talking about, the non-pro doesn't? Or, "I don't care from prospect analysis from Ramp" and only rely on guys like Sickels? Should we just defer to professionals in every level of analysis and disregard any argument made by a fan that doesn't cite to a "professional."

I'm not saying that Swift (or anyone on this board) is inherently qualified to be judging an MLB player from a scouting perspective. But I wouldn't rule out that it's POSSIBLE for someone from this board to make the same observations that a scout would, in limited circumstances and with a large enough sample size.

I mean, if we had a guy where who was like a longtime player/high school/small college coach, woudl he not be qualified to scout a guy just b/c he's not a pro? Is his opinion disregarded? Where is the line drawn?

I mean I basically said as much before. "Just because they aren't pro doesn't mean they aren't good, and just because somebody is pro doesn't mean they are good, but chances are, the pro knows what he's gonna be talking about, the non-pro doesn't."

I don't know anything about visual scouting. It'd be a lot harder for me to differentiate what somebody says that is either right or wrong with something visual scouting wise, than with statistics.

And there's also reason guys like Neyer and Sickels aren't in pro ball anymore. Just saying It's kinda like how I find it funny when somebody brings in a former GM for their opinion. It's like "OK, you were fired for being dumb, but let's hear what YOU have to say."

[Party]

I'm just going to say Keith Law so it sets off his Google Alerts.

[Omar]

Man I hate things like "the problem is his swing" because if he starts doing well "he fixed his swing" even if he didn't do anything to his swing. This isn't pointed directed at you swift, I said the same thing to Sashami gal in the hermida thread. But there are almost no control and so many variables and things we just don't know that I hate reasoning like that. Normally it's just seeing what you want to see, normally it's just explaining how you want to explain it.

That's an incredibly short-sighted statement. Numbers are wonderful and they do an incredible job of predicting probable future performance, however they are insignificant without the physical activity that is actually going on. If the dude has a long swing, his numbers are reflective of his long swing. If he fixes it, then the numbers will reflect the change.

I understand that your issue is with people throwing the claim as if they actually know. Statistics are more bullshit-proof (keyword: more). However, if you're going to throw out the most important type of observation, why even bother observing?

As per variables.....variables are something like hidden injuries or something that's on a hitter's mind outside of the game. Whether his front side is opening up as he tries to swing at a pitch isn't a variable. It's clearly visible and anyone who has even a rudimentary knowledge of the game can see it pretty square and away. It's the same with a swing that is very slow, constantly under the ball, or starting from an off point.

EDIT: Just realized now I'm about an hour behind. Damn school.

[emkayseven]

ok i've excluded myself long enough from the greatest thread in this site's short history, and let me first say that i don't see why there's so much argument here, as the indisputable facts are this:

1) he looks, to the eye, overmatched at the plate
2) his season stats (ba/obp/slg) are not good
3) his sabermetrics (babip/ld/thggi/notoriousbig/etc) are not that bad/kinda good
4) his milb numbers are good

that having been said, i'm with swift.

generally. not entirely, but generally. maybin looks like he could do better closing his eyes and swinging based on his sense of smell right now. he looks like he has no business being up here and the reason that's troubling is because although he's only 22, he's been up in the majors 3 times now. there's no question his numbers in the minors are good. there's no question he has all the tools. but there's also no question that his swing is too long or that he's striking out in large quantities. the problem arises because after nearly 300 plate appearances in the majors, he still looks like the 19 year old just called up from single a. THAT'S the problem, and that's where swift's concern and ramp's questioning and my worrying comes in. sometimes you see a kid in the majors and see that he only needs to make one adjustment or a couple minor adjustments and he'll find it. cam has many, many adjustments to be made and that suggests that either a) he is farther off than we think/need/hope, or b) his ceiling is not as high as we thought/needed/hoped. that simple. do i think he can be an all star? hell yes. do i think he's close to being even an average mlb player right now? hell no. honestly right now, fielding not included, i'd rather have bonifacio in my lineup than maybin.

and i've been saying for a while he looks to me like preston wilson with a little less power. one day i'll be able to toot my own horn like everyone has been in this thread about that and about kyle skipworth being a shitty player, but that day is a few years away on both fronts.