Could Some of Our Relievers Be Starters?

[Jay]

That all depends the type of 3 you're talking about. If it's a league average 3, I don't think that's a good idea.

The organizational bullpen depth is way better than the rotation depth. It's also easier to fill holes in the pen in a cost efficient manner than it is to do so in the rotation.

If the experiment doesn't work in Spring Training, Ramos could also just go back to his regular duties and nothing is lost.

You're also making the assumption that a good ST would mean a successful season. Some starters ERAs from this years ST Koehler 7.00, Latos 7.04, Cosart 5.60, Haren 4.66, and Alvarez 4.26. Haren was probably closest to his expected production and was still higher than expected. 2014 ST ERAs Turner 2.79, Hand 2.70, Jose 3.54, Koehler 1.50, Alvarez 1.84, and Eovaldi 3.44. Again most of them are far from the expected production for the season.

How are you going to evaluate his ability to succeed with just ST? Also, the preparation would be completely different so if this experiment fails you risk damaging the best reliever psychological state in the process. It's also something that we can guarantee the FO won't experiment with.

I mean an above average 3. I feel bad for Stanton seeing the organization won't make the necessary moves to be a legitimate contender now. Best case scenario if he opts out is to get the same money with another club. Hopefully Loria sells before then and the new owner guts the FO and is willing to spend money.

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Maybe Shields just wasn't the guy they were willing to go after. I mean he certainly wouldn't have been my first choice but he was the only choice last off-season. Maybe they'll sign a front line starter this off-season, more supply and better quality.

[emkayseven]

Moving Ramos to the rotation while having no professional starting experience is exactly the type of Marlins-esque move that would rightfully have everyone up in arms.

[lou]

man Rodon was a huge fucking miss

Huge. Constantly depressing.

[lou]

FA pitching depth seems to be decent, at least. Probably won't sign any of the top names like Price, Cueto, Greinke, or Zimmerman. But there's quite a few in the next tier, like Samardzija, Kazmir, Gallardo, Fister, Chen, Chacin.

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Early guess, with trading/non-tendering Cishek, Crow, and Koehler, we're at about 65-70m payroll next year (Including paying Salty).

So to sign a 20-25m pitcher, you're looking at a 85-95m payroll. We were at, what, 65m this year? So probably like 75m next year.

Sooo a FA pitcher is probably not happening. Morse and Salty being dead weight hurts a ton, 14m right there that's wasted.

Unfortunately, probably a bit more than that. Gordon, Hech, and Ramos are going to get big arbitration bumps, and if Ozuna, Alvarez, and Phelps/Koehler do anything, they will likely come around what we're expecting or go higher. I see this as a conservative guess:

C- Realmuto $525k
1B - Morse $8.5
2B - Gordon $5
SS - Hech $3.25
3B - Prado $11
LF - Yelich - $1
CF - Ozuna - $3
RF - Stanton - $9
B - Bour - $525k
B - Dietrich - $525k (for discussion purposes)
B - D. Solano $1
B - “Veteran Presence” - $1.5
B - “Veteran Catcher” - $1.5
Dead - Salty - $8
Bats Approx= $52.5

SP - Fernandez - $3.5
SP - Alvarez- $5.5 (estimating high here)
SP - _________________
SP - Cosart - $525k
SP - Nicolino - $525k (you know he is going to be here)

RP - Ramos - $3 (arb1)
RP - Dunn - $3.45
RP - Phelps/Koehler - $2.75 (other is moved)
RP - Dyson - $525k
RP - Capps - $525k
RP - Hand - $525k
RP - Rienzo - $525k (out of options I believe)
Pitchers Approx=$21.5

Total payroll Approx= $74 million

Guys jettisoned - Cishek, Haren, Latos, Baker, Ichiro, Crow, Mathis, Kelly, Mazzaro, Morris, and the other of Phelps/Koehler. Nothing really missed here.

The Salty money is the killer here. Morse will be better. Maybe overpaid, but he will likely be useful in a non-embarrassing way. But having $8 completely dead to Salty is the worst.

DeScalfani and C. Rodon also seemingly hurt a lot. The first of these I can forgive even if it sucks, the later.... Kolek better be the second coming of Josh Beckett for this team.

I love the idea of a veteran # 2-3 SP, and very confident in Phelps/Koehler and Hand being the backup SP. They really need to push payroll to $85 and get a $10 million a year starter or so who profiles as a much better bet than Phelps/Koehler. I think Scott Kazmir makes a lot of sense here assuming he will take a 2/$25 type of a deal (his last contract was 2/$22 and being older probably duplicating that is a win).

Also wonder if trading Prado may be a good idea. They could probably get something really good, and clears a lot a lot of money. Guess we'll see if they can climb close to .500 in June.

[Erick]

Unfortunately, probably a bit more than that. Gordon, Hech, and Ramos are going to get big arbitration bumps, and if Ozuna, Alvarez, and Phelps/Koehler do anything, they will likely come around what we're expecting or go higher. I see this as a conservative guess:

C- Realmuto $525k
1B - Morse $8.5
2B - Gordon $5
SS - Hech $3.25
3B - Prado $11
LF - Yelich - $1
CF - Ozuna - $3
RF - Stanton - $9
B - Bour - $525k
B - Dietrich - $525k (for discussion purposes)
B - D. Solano $1
B - “Veteran Presence” - $1.5
B - “Veteran Catcher” - $1.5
Dead - Salty - $8
Bats Approx= $52.5

SP - Fernandez - $3.5
SP - Alvarez- $5.5 (estimating high here)
SP - _________________
SP - Cosart - $525k
SP - Nicolino - $525k (you know he is going to be here)

RP - Ramos - $3 (arb1)
RP - Dunn - $3.45
RP - Phelps/Koehler - $2.75 (other is moved)
RP - Dyson - $525k
RP - Capps - $525k
RP - Hand - $525k
RP - Rienzo - $525k (out of options I believe)
Pitchers Approx=$21.5

Total payroll Approx= $74 million

Guys jettisoned - Cishek, Haren, Latos, Baker, Ichiro, Crow, Mathis, Kelly, Mazzaro, Morris, and the other of Phelps/Koehler. Nothing really missed here.

The Salty money is the killer here. Morse will be better. Maybe overpaid, but he will likely be useful in a non-embarrassing way. But having $8 completely dead to Salty is the worst.

DeScalfani and C. Rodon also seemingly hurt a lot. The first of these I can forgive even if it sucks, the later.... Kolek better be the second coming of Josh Beckett for this team.

I love the idea of a veteran # 2-3 SP, and very confident in Phelps/Koehler and Hand being the backup SP. They really need to push payroll to $85 and get a $10 million a year starter or so who profiles as a much better bet than Phelps/Koehler. I think Scott Kazmir makes a lot of sense here assuming he will take a 2/$25 type of a deal (his last contract was 2/$22 and being older probably duplicating that is a win).

Also wonder if trading Prado may be a good idea. They could probably get something really good, and clears a lot a lot of money. Guess we'll see if they can climb close to .500 in June.

Aren't the Yankees paying the majority of Prado's salary or was that just for this year?

[Jay]

Aren't the Yankees paying the majority of Prado's salary or was that just for this year?

I think it was money transfer and doesn't necessarily go to paying Prado

[marlinsfan24]

I think it was money transfer and doesn't necessarily go to paying Prado

Yankees are paying $6 million of the $22 million owed to Prado, $3 million a season.

[lou]

Yankees are paying $6 million of the $22 million owed to Prado, $3 million a season.

So very conservatively, if they sign a $12 million a year pitcher next year, the team will have a payroll just over $80 million. Everyone really important coming back.

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Conley is up also. Morris hurt.

[Bobbob1313]

So very conservatively, if they sign a $12 million a year pitcher next year, the team will have a payroll just over $80 million. Everyone really important coming back.

would still be the 2nd-lowest payroll in baseball this season, I think

[lou]

would still be the 2nd-lowest payroll in baseball this season, I think

Yea. Which is why they should just sign a $20 million a year pitcher

[Miamarlin21]

You really think Morris will be gone?

[lou]

You really think Morris will be gone?

Why are they going to pay him say $1.3 million, when the alternative is Rienzo, Urena, Ramsey, etc. for the 5th RHP slot in the bullpen? He gone.

I think this is pretty set. They can keep their de facto 6th and 7th SP in the bullpen (Phelps/Koehler and Hand), and just churn out the relievers as their are plenty of 5-6-7 bullpen guys in AA/AAA

RP - Ramos - $3 (arb1)
RP - Dunn - $3.45
RP - Phelps/Koehler - $2.75 (other is moved)
RP - Dyson - $525k
RP - Capps - $525k
RP - Hand - $525k
RP - Rienzo/Urena/Ramsey/Whoever - $525k

The curveball here for me is if they trade Ramos right now. I don't think this changes much for the team as Capps is basically unhittable and who cares who the last RHP in the pen is. This saves some money for next year, and hopefully could bring as part of a package the heir apparent to 3B. Haren/Ramos to someone for a young 3B would be absolutely outstanding, and is not unreasonable. I'd imagine could get someone like DJ Peterson from the Mariners.

Then they could trade Prado now or in the offseason probably easily, get more pitching with him, and through all of these moves, that clears $18+ million in salary (Haren remainder this year, prado salary next year, Ramos anticipated arbitration next year).

They would have a payroll about $66 million going into 2016 (including salty dead money), will have saved at least $4 million in 2015 due to moving Haren, and would have to sign 1 starting pitcher, and 3 bench players to round out the team. If payroll is $85 (I would hope reasonable?), and you include the $4 million saved in 2015, they'd have $20-25 million to spend to fill those 4 spots. Three of which probably can be dealt with for under $5 million total.

It will suck for the fans to tank the rest of this season, but if they sign Greinke, round out the bench, have a young 3B to match with the rest of the offseason which they control for years... makes sense. I guess this conversation is 3-4 weeks premature though. Maybe they win 15 of 20 (ha).

[Jay]

[MENTION=40]lou[/MENTION] Ramos really get $3mill in arb 1? Also Hand still won't be arb eligible yet? I still can't justify paying Dunn $3.45mill.

You really see the need to sign 3 bench players? Assuming Morse is still around you have Bour and Rojas as sure things (Solano should be gone). I think they sign a back up outfielder (Ichiro extension would be awesome) and back up catcher. 25th man should be making no more than league minimum (maybe it comes from non-roster invitee but could easily be from inside the organization).

[lou]

If Ramos racks up 25-30 saves this year, goes into arbitration with a career era 2.5, whip 1.15, K/9 9.5+, 37 holds, in 210+ innings, I think you're looking at a round ball $3 million bucks. Maybe $2.5 is the low point. Totally a great price and I am not opposed to keeping him another year or two, I'm just saying. This team has bigger issues (longterm 3B, better SP), so if you turn Ramos/Haren/Prado (the good trade chips) into a young 3B and cash savings, use the money on SP next year, I think it's safe to say we can all live with the "downgrade" from Capps becoming closer, and the team carrying "Rienzo" as a 5th RP versus keeping Ramos. It's really a huge team win. I think its worth debate in the front office to move him when he will never be more valuable - maybe they have learned this lesson from Cishek.

As for the bench, if they intend to contend, they can't dick around the bench. Bour/Morse whoever isn't playing is the only sure thing on the bench next year I imagine. I suspect they'll fill one spot internally with Dietrich/Rojas/Solano/whoever, but they need a veteran catcher, another corner IF, and a 4th OF. It's hard to project a bench, but they really don't have the depth here dishing out Canha and Barnes, and moving Salty. Not a big deal, but it's going to cost them $5 million bucks to do this probably.

I mean, this would be an awesome situation:

C- Realmuto $525k
1B - Morse $8.5
2B - Gordon $5
SS - Hech $3.25
3B - YOUNG 3B ACQUIRED RAMOS/HAREN/PRADO - $525k
LF - Yelich - $1
CF - Ozuna - $3
RF - Stanton - $9
B - Bour - $525k
B - Dietrich/Rojas - $525k
B - “Veteran Platoon 3B” - $2
B - “Veteran 4th OF” - $1.5
B - “Veteran Catcher” - $1.5
Dead Money - Salty - $8
Bats Approx= $45

SP - Fernandez - $3.5
SP - FA VETERAN ACE SP - $20
SP - Alvarez- $5.5 (estimating high here)
SP - Cosart - $525k
SP - Nicolino - $525k (you know he is going to be here, or sub out Phelps/Koehler and put someone in pen)

RP - Capps - $525k
RP - Dunn - $3.45
RP - Dyson - $525k
RP - Phelps/Koehler - $2.75 (other is moved)
RP - Hand - $525k
RP - Rienzo - $525k
RP - Conley/Ramsey/Urena/Take Your Pick - $525k
Pitchers Approx=$39

Total payroll Approx= $83 million, and thats conservative could be closer to $80 because Alvarez and Phelps could be down money, and this does not include money saved if moving Haren/Prado in season 2015*

DFA/Traded for whatever - Cishek, Latos, Baker, Ichiro, Crow, Mathis, Kelly, Mazzaro, Morris, and the other of Phelps/Koehler


If they can't do an $80 million payroll with the rest of the team they have around this, seriously get the fuck out of town.

Also, funny to think about, none of those 5 SP above are currently on the 25 man roster.

[nny]

I'm not sure how I feel about trading Prado.

On one hand, his plate discipline has deteriorated so much the past couple of years and so has his power this year. It's hard to see him hitting a 100 OPS+ again considering that. So sell while you still can.

On the other hand, he's still a solid regular with his defense and good enough bat.

And if you get a cost controlled bat that's close to a sure thing, then it's definitely harder to say no. But that's easier said than done. I'm not a big fan of Peterson (His offensive numbers come from hitter's paradises and, IIRC during the draft, he's expected to move to 1b), but he's also just a name to use.

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Also, dumping Morse, going to 90m, and signing two SP and that team looks so, so much sexier.

Sigh.