Postgame: Dan Haren Boosts Trade Value In Marlins 7-2 Win

[HUGG]

Discuss

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LATE NIGHT WITH THE FISH is back tonight.





We'll have 7 posts in the game thread.

46 all over Daft's face

[Jay]

Season	Monthly	         BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA	wRC+
2014	Mar/Apr	         4.2 %	12.5 %	0.33	.344	.375	.478	.853	.133	.385	15	4.6	.373	143
2014	May	         8.8 %	14.7 %	0.60	.244	.311	.309	.620	.065	.291	12	-2.9	.282	81
2014	Jun	         7.3 %	14.7 %	0.50	.303	.358	.475	.833	.172	.349	16	4.4	.362	135
2014	Jul	         4.6 %	21.3 %	0.22	.300	.340	.360	.700	.060	.390	12	0.3	.313	102
2014	Aug	         0.9 %	19.1 %	0.05	.259	.273	.306	.578	.046	.322	7	-4.5	.257	63
2014	Sept/Oct	 1.1 %	16.5 %	0.07	.303	.308	.371	.678	.067	.360	9	-0.8	.298	91
2014	1st Half	 6.9 %	15.3 %	0.45	.292	.344	.398	.742	.106	.344	48	5.7	.329	113
2014	2nd Half	 1.6 %	18.2 %	0.09	.284	.300	.348	.648	.064	.348	23	-4.6	.287	84

Just so you're aware Dee Gordon started last year as a freaking stud too. He'll regress and his line will look good at the end of the year because all he has to do is hit .270 to end batting .300 but he's not going to walk much and for all his speed he's horrible on the basepaths.

[thatnewguy]

Giants already benched Casey McGehee.

[HUGG]

I mean, you're at least aware of how annoying it is to tell everyone that a guy hitting .437/.461/.527 sucks, right?

You can't just enjoy that he's been super fun so far because he's gotten picked off a few times (erase those and his OBP falls to right around .400...DEE ASS).

[thatnewguy]

Maybe people will trade for Dan Haren's bat.

[HUGG]

[Jay]

He's not the type of player that excites me. If he has an OBP of above .370 at the end of the year, I won't complain about him until he is hitting below .250 in a sample size of over 100 ABs next year.

[Bobbob1313]

The league average OBP is like .325.

He can probably pretty easily hit like .325 from this point on, even with a significant amount of regression in his BABIP.

I'm not worried about Dee at all.

Haren, sure. Not Dee.

[Mainge]

Season	Monthly	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA	wRC+
2014	Mar/Apr	4.2 %	12.5 %	0.33	.344	.375	.478	.853	.133	.385	15	4.6	.373	143
2014	May	8.8 %	14.7 %	0.60	.244	.311	.309	.620	.065	.291	12	-2.9	.282	81
2014	Jun	7.3 %	14.7 %	0.50	.303	.358	.475	.833	.172	.349	16	4.4	.362	135
2014	Jul	4.6 %	21.3 %	0.22	.300	.340	.360	.700	.060	.390	12	0.3	.313	102
2014	Aug	0.9 %	19.1 %	0.05	.259	.273	.306	.578	.046	.322	7	-4.5	.257	63
2014	Sept/Oct	1.1 %	16.5 %	0.07	.303	.308	.371	.678	.067	.360	9	-0.8	.298	91
2014	1st Half	6.9 %	15.3 %	0.45	.292	.344	.398	.742	.106	.344	48	5.7	.329	113
2014	2nd Half	1.6 %	18.2 %	0.09	.284	.300	.348	.648	.064	.348	23	-4.6	.287	84

Just so you're aware Dee Gordon started last year as a freaking stud too. He'll regress and his line will look good at the end of the year because all he has to do is hit .270 to end batting .300 but he's not going to walk much and for all his speed he's horrible on the basepaths.

I'm very aware. Still, his walk percentage is up, his k% is way down. His line drive percentage is way up. His flyball percentage is way down.

Obviously he's in for mean regression. Yes, his BABIP is way up. But his peripherals are up across the board. I'd be interested in some batted ball velocity data comparing last year with this year

[Bobbob1313]

He already has 13 infield hits, His strikeout rate is down and his contact rate is up.

Dee is fine.

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His hard-hit% is up slightly. More importantly, I think, he pull% is down. For someone with no power, Hitting the ball up the middle is a very good thing.

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If Dee had a .350 BABIP (basically what he did last season), he'd be hitting .312 with a .337 OBP.

Assuming the base running regresses to the mean, we'd be dumb to complain about that.

[Jay]

Regardless he'll regress and he needs to hit .330 consistently to be a good leadoff hitter

[HUGG]

Also, the best defensive 2B in baseball so far by basically every way you can measure defense.

[Jay]

unless you believe he will hit .370 this year. The trade return most likely puts the team in a better position to contend this year. I hope I'm wrong for the teams sake and he is improved but citing his walk rate when the difference is a point as a reason for his change is wrong. That kind of variance is expected.

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I'll try and run a model this weekend to see the impact on number of wins last season. What defensive stats should I include?

[Mainge]

unless you believe he will hit .370 this year. The trade return most likely puts the team in a better position to contend this year. I hope I'm wrong for the teams sake and he is improved but citing his walk rate when the difference is a point as a reason for his change is wrong. That kind of variance is expected.

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I'll try and run a model this weekend to see the impact on number of wins last season. What defensive stats should I include?

I didn't just cite walk rate. What about the rest?

[Bobbob1313]

Regardless he'll regress and he needs to hit .330 consistently to be a good leadoff hitter

No, he doesn't.

League average OBP this season is .314. Average for lead off hitters is .321.