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I think we're a lock for another mid 80 season but luck would have to roll our way for us to win over 90 games
dodododoodo
I mean, I really don't think that's asking for much. It's asking for Nolasco to not but unlucky, for Volstad's HRs to normalize, for West's rates to normalize to mid-rotation starter, and for minor progression from Andrew. And that's with JJ getting knocked up. I really don't think it's asking much for our 3-5 to put up between 4.30-4.50 ERAs. And don't put too much stock into what IP I gave up pitcher for those 4 since they're so interchangeable, that's not the point.
I mean, that's basically saying we'll have the same rotation next year as this year with minor progression. So if we give our bullpen 254 runs aginst (~4.20 ERA), and our rotation 476 runs against (~4.18 ERA), that's a total of 730 runs.
We have no idea what our defense will be now but let's just say it's average because of Uggla and Coghlan being gone/shifting. Actually let's say it's -10 because of our catchers. So our new runs given up is 740 runs.
I'd say, playoffs in mind, our goal should be 92 wins. 2002 was the last time 92 wins didn't get you into the playoffs in the NL.
If we gave up 740 runs, that would require us to score some 850 runs. This would require about a .785 OPS. We have a .759 OPS this season, and it very likely is going down instead of up.
I think it's a lot more likely we're around the, say, 780 mark (~.755 OPS). That's basically keeping cody and cantu, for simplicity sake. That'd put us at 85 wins.
Now let's say we have two break outs in our rotation to 4 eras. My two favorites for that would be West and Sanchez at this point in time but again names are interchangable.
That lowers our rotation runs given up to 459, or 723 runs total given up. If we again assume 780 runs, that puts us up to 87 wins.
I'd say I don't like our playoff odds too much at the moment.
For what the original thread is about, what would need to change is for us to have two break outs in the rotation, our bullpen to perform better than average (if we perform at something like a, say, 4 ERA again, that lowers our runs given up by another 11), and for something like Logan Morrison to bust out the gates crushing cherries.
So let's say our staff is good, we get two break outs and a 4 era from bp. let's say 710 runs given up. That'd require 815 runs scored, or about .765-.770 OPS, to win 92 games.
man winning 90 games is hard
dodododoodo
I mean, I really don't think that's asking for much. It's asking for Nolasco to not but unlucky, for Volstad's HRs to normalize, for West's rates to normalize to mid-rotation starter, and for minor progression from Andrew. And that's with JJ getting knocked up. I really don't think it's asking much for our 3-5 to put up between 4.30-4.50 ERAs. And don't put too much stock into what IP I gave up pitcher for those 4 since they're so interchangeable, that's not the point.
I mean, that's basically saying we'll have the same rotation next year as this year with minor progression. So if we give our bullpen 254 runs aginst (~4.20 ERA), and our rotation 476 runs against (~4.18 ERA), that's a total of 730 runs.
We have no idea what our defense will be now but let's just say it's average because of Uggla and Coghlan being gone/shifting. Actually let's say it's -10 because of our catchers. So our new runs given up is 740 runs.
I'd say, playoffs in mind, our goal should be 92 wins. 2002 was the last time 92 wins didn't get you into the playoffs in the NL.
If we gave up 740 runs, that would require us to score some 850 runs. This would require about a .785 OPS. We have a .759 OPS this season, and it very likely is going down instead of up.
I think it's a lot more likely we're around the, say, 780 mark (~.755 OPS). That's basically keeping cody and cantu, for simplicity sake. That'd put us at 85 wins.
Now let's say we have two break outs in our rotation to 4 eras. My two favorites for that would be West and Sanchez at this point in time but again names are interchangable.
That lowers our rotation runs given up to 459, or 723 runs total given up. If we again assume 780 runs, that puts us up to 87 wins.
I'd say I don't like our playoff odds too much at the moment.
For what the original thread is about, what would need to change is for us to have two break outs in the rotation, our bullpen to perform better than average (if we perform at something like a, say, 4 ERA again, that lowers our runs given up by another 11), and for something like Logan Morrison to bust out the gates crushing cherries.
So let's say our staff is good, we get two break outs and a 4 era from bp. let's say 710 runs given up. That'd require 815 runs scored, or about .765-.770 OPS, to win 92 games.
man winning 90 games is hard
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