Updated 4 Year Plan

[nny]

So we went from something like a ~.500 team to a mid-80s win team. Still not "hell yeah playoff team" but we should definitely be in the race. And there's certainly some growth there (Dee, Yelich, maybe Hech) since I really try to be harsh/non-homer.

This is assuming Haren aint playing for us. So that's still roughly ~10m we have available for 2015. Assuming we're going with a ~75m payroll in 2016, we're even there. And assuming a ~85m payroll in 2017, we're about 5m over there. But we can still make a run at Shields (really the only FA left, yeah?), though I'm pretty meh towards doing that.

2015: Get rid of some combination of Cishek, Jones, and Eovaldi to get to ~20m this year.

2016: Trading Eovaldi and Cishek alone free up 14m, then you got arms like Koehler, Crow, and Dunn you could replace with in house options for the minimum to get up to 20m.

2017: So we'd need to shed 25m. Cishek, Eovaldi, and Koehler alone are 22m. But we'd also need to figure out 1B in 2017 with Morse gone.

Anyway, point being, we can still definitely sign James Shields and make it work. Could have signed Chase Headley and made it work, and I think that'd be a better improvement. But oh well.

I'm in the camp of not making any more big signings now, and instead look at taking on a multi-year contract mid-year when we have a better idea what our holes are. Plus have that money freed up to extend Mat Latos, who I'd much rather have than Shields considering that age difference.

[dim]

Jake Peavy's the name I'd keep an eye on. Shields would cost a ton. Peavy's stock apparently died quite a bit after his poor World Series outing. If the Marlins determine that Haren is without a doubt retiring, I wouldn't be shocked in the least to see the Marlins hand Peavy a 1 year deal for something like $7 or $8 million in a 'prove yourself and get one last big deal' kind of contract with Miami. Both sides understand just how much your stock can improve pitching at Marlins Park. Seems like a really solid fit for both sides and the deal would likely take us close to our predicted team salary.

[Erick]

I'd like to see Eovaldi or Cosart traded for an infielder. Basically, I'd like to see Eovaldi traded since they're definitely not trading Cosart. As Dim said, I'd be cool with a guy like Jake Peavy at the backend of the rotation.

[nny]

I'm actually against trading Eovaldi atm, since I think his value is the lowest it could be. I'd rather wait until Jose comes back or after next season.

Yeah, he was greatly over his FIP last year. But in his 260.1 IP before that, his ERA was actually under his FIP. I'd rather give him another chance than sell really low.

I also don't think we get a good IF for Eovaldi. I think if we could, we would have.

If we were to sign someone like Peavy, I'd rather Koehler go into the swing-man role. This would give us really solid SP depth and improve the rotation, so I'm definitely for it. I wouldn't want to give Peavy two years though, if he requires that.

[lou]

I'm actually against trading Eovaldi atm, since I think his value is the lowest it could be. I'd rather wait until Jose comes back or after next season.

Yeah, he was greatly over his FIP last year. But in his 260.1 IP before that, his ERA was actually under his FIP. I'd rather give him another chance than sell really low.

I also don't think we get a good IF for Eovaldi. I think if we could, we would have.

If we were to sign someone like Peavy, I'd rather Koehler go into the swing-man role. This would give us really solid SP depth and improve the rotation, so I'm definitely for it. I wouldn't want to give Peavy two years though, if he requires that.

I don't think two years for Peavy is a big deal, assuming Haren goes away, Latos is not retained, and they want Koehler in the bullpen:

Alvarez
Latos
Eovaldi (Fernandez)
Cosart
Peavy
Cishek, Dunn, Ramos, Morris, Koehler, Crow, Hand

-Eovaldi, Cishek, Dunn, Crow, and Hand all traded deadline/offseason to "fix" the infield

Fernandez
Alvarez
Cosart
Peavy
Nicolino (you know it's coming)
Ramos, Morris, Koehler, Capps, Urena, Dayton, Conley

And Peavy is the only turnover for 2017 which is great considering that gives Williams, German, and Kolek 2 full seasons in the minors.

They kind of have a good roadmap here, assuming Haren/Latos/Koehler/Trades I slotted in
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I also think you have to include Gordon/Haren salary and asterisk they are getting money from Dodgers. That low figure is a bit deceiving at the moment as payroll is legitimately almost $80 right now (even if not 100% out of Loria's pocket)

[nny]

My desire, atm, is to retain Latos. That might change come season time and he doesn't come back strong from injury, but I'd like to set us up in a position to be able to do it. And two years on peavy might prevent that

[lou]

I'd like to see Eovaldi or Cosart traded for an infielder. Basically, I'd like to see Eovaldi traded since they're definitely not trading Cosart. As Dim said, I'd be cool with a guy like Jake Peavy at the backend of the rotation.

They aren't going to replace anyone right now, but this will happen in July for sure when at least one of 2B/SS/3B is absolutely atrocious.
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My desire, atm, is to retain Latos. That might change come season time and he doesn't come back strong from injury, but I'd like to set us up in a position to be able to do it. And two years on peavy might prevent that

Totally couldn't do both, unless payroll goes to "bottom 25" land (which is embarrassing)

But they are 1 big upgrade away from a serious projection on the season. Would like to see them get creative and bring in another big SP and let the pen benefit huge with Koehler

[thatnewguy]

I like where this team is right now and think that they are good enough to make the playoffs. The fact is, projecting to be an 84-85 win team with this group of players is OK since it's taking into account that there isn't much expected from Hechavarria, Gordon, McGehee, etc. The big leap will come if Hech can be more than just a 1 win player, if Gordon is closer to his 2014 first-half self, if McGehee isn't just shit. That put's you up to 90 and that almost guarantees a spot.

Obviously though, you'd rather not bank on the possible improvement of players to get you where you want to be. Because if you get regression from a guy like Ozuna, you get stagnation from Yelich, you get injuries to whoever, and you get no improvement from Hech and Gordon, you're fucked and you've lost 86 games. That's the problem with where they are right now, in my eyes. They are still one or two pieces away (please fix third base, please) from being truly a contender. They are in the conversation for sure and will likely be in the hunt all season long but I don't see them actually being a legitimate threat unless Hech and Gordon become good or they make a couple more moves.
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Probably can't do it with the amount of prospects left + the amount on his contract but I'd 100% be for adding Longoria if we could do it.

[nny]

Longoria or even zobrist and we should be expected to win ~90 games and make the playoffs.

He's old as shit but if MIL falls out of the race, Aramis Ramirez is someone we should look into as someone who wouldn't cost much of anything and should be a decent improvement

Preferably, we're able to get someone young and controlled though.

[lou]

Longoria or even zobrist and we should be expected to win ~90 games and make the playoffs.

He's old as shit but if MIL falls out of the race, Aramis Ramirez is someone we should look into as someone who wouldn't cost much of anything and should be a decent improvement

Preferably, we're able to get someone young and controlled though.

Seems like two key guys on contenders are blocked long term - DJ Peterson and Garin Cecchinni

cishek has got to make some sense here. Eovaldi too.

[HUGG]

I don't think we're really a playoff team in a vacuum, but when you factor in all the games we're gonna play against 3 teams we're pretty clearly superior to, it really increases our shot.

It's hard to see this team not at least hanging in the wild card race to the very end, barring injuries. We have zero depth, so injuries = catastrophe.

[nny]

Which was another bad thing about the Gordon trade. Killed some depth. Kike would have been a great bench bat considering he can spot start anywhere, and Barnes should be MLB ready.

Plus Canha and Jensen gone

I think our depth is OKAY atm. Positionally is pretty bad, but Dietrich can start at 2B or 3B (and if Hech gets injured, move Dee to SS and start DD at 2B). Jones can start at 1B, LF, or RF (and if Ozuna gets injured, move Yelich to CF). That is actually a pretty big negative to moving Jones. Who's our back OF then, Wates? Solano?

And Urena and Nicolino or more or less ready and can spot start. And lots of BP arms still. While our pitching does have a lot of question marks, we do still also have decent depth for the rotation and bullpen. It's just hitting.

[emkayseven]

We're fine depth-wise, I think. We could survive one non-Stanton injury at a time. Multiple injuries stacked, we're fucked. Especially if we hang onto Jones, and have him, Dietrich, Solano, Wates, Baker, plus you know they'll sign their yearly Reed Johnson-type player.

[lou]

I think the real bench problem is carrying Baker, Solano, and Dietrich. Only leaves one space for a "4th OF" after Mathis.

I'm actually OK keeping Dietrich in AAA and play exclusively 3B (as 2B is kind of locked up for years now... and have Romero exclusively play 3B as well in lower levels) for 2-3 months, and keep Solano around. He's not awful and a perfectly capable 25th man.

Use the other bench spots for a veteran 4th OF and another veteran bat (like Gaby Sanchez, or just keep Jones), and Dietrich is the first call up to any injury to a non-catcher position player.

Kind of want Dietrich to get everyday AB and not sit on the bench, even if he is an upgrade to Solano. Dietrich's longterm potential is more important than the nominal impact he makes on the bench for first half of 2015 right? Let him rake AAA for 2-3 months and force a situation when someone of McGehee/Hech/Gordon stinks.

Jones/Gaby/Veteran 1B/3B type, Real 4th OF (Ichiro?), Baker, Solano, and Mathis is a pretty good bench, with nice depth call ups with Dietrich and Realmuto.

[Namaste]

Ichiro one time as a 4th OF would be pretty cool.