Spring Training Notes

[Jay]

How's his defense?

[Big Z]

He's so skinny and I just can't buy that he's "6'1". The guy looks more like 5'9 from all I've seen. Hech seems to have been working with Menechino because he has changed the position of his bat a bit, which seems to be giving him a smoother transition towards the ball.

[Mainge]

The skinny and height stuff is pretty irrelevant

[dim]

### Among players that have impressed the most this spring: Pitchers Brad Hand and Tom Koehler. Each has allowed one run in 12 innings; one will be in the rotation, one likely in the bullpen. “Koehler’s stuff has gotten better,” one scout said. “He’s already a No. 4-type starter and could end up being a No. 3.”

I think this is the most surprising thing in the article. I've never seen a scout refer to Koehler as anything more than minor league fodder with the potential to be a random 5th starter every now and then.

I was more impressed with Koehler than I expected to be last season. It's also amazing to consider that Brad Hand is still 24 given his only real opportunity with the major league team was three or four years ago. He was one of those guys you forget about because he wasn't all that impressive in his stint in the majors, but you forget that he was 20 years old and likely wasn't ready for the push he got. Not everybody can be JFern. The only issue I have with Hand is that he never seemed to stand out in the minors. He numbers show him to be a consistently decent pitcher (who still walks too many guys) but nothing signals to me a guy ready for a major league push.

I feel like Koehler would have more success going into next season, although it's not going to matter because if Heaney pitches like we expect him to pitch he should take over a rotation spot at some point.

I'm also sticking with prediction that Adam Conley pitches amazing to start this season, ends up in the rotation by June/July and by 2016 is a staple in the starting rotation. I feel like Conley pitched a hell of a lot better than his 3.25 ERA showed last season and shouldn't be that far away from a major league rotation slot. Whenever I see Conley he reminds me of a lefty version of Anibal Sanchez in '06. That's extremely high praise and likely a bit overkill as of right now, but I've seen Conley improve since getting drafted, so I see him continuing to improve and hitting that next level in 2014.
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As for Nick Franklin I 100% doubt Seattle would trade him for as little as Jacob Turner. The guy proved he was a capable hitter in the minors and produced an impressive WAR last season mostly on good defense alone. I'm sure Seattle realizes that Franklin's ceiling is a hell of a lot higher than Turner's value.

It doesn't take a scientist to see Turner's stuff is incredibly hittable and within a year or two his value will be pretty damn low. I was a bit shocked to see that he maintained a 3.74 ERA last season, but that is mostly because of how well he started the season.

The obvious argument is that Turner is still 22 and posting a sub 4 ERA at that age is pretty damn impressive, and I agree. But when you watch him pitch, you can just see that he's at best behind Fernandez/Alvarez/Eovaldi in our pitching rankings and seems like the first guy to be replaced in the rotation if he starts off poorly.

Even if I'm not 100% behind Turner, he's a guy that back in 2008 we would've been jumping up and down to have in the rotation and there are a great deal of teams that would be happy to have a guy like Turner pitching for them. I'm just sure that Franklin value is far too high to be given away for Turner, even if we throw other pieces into the trade.

[Big Z]

Marisnick is really making it tough for Red to not choose him as a starter on opening day. He's 3 for 3 so far today with 2 singles and a double with a current BA of .429 through 35 ABs and OBP around .480's. The best part of his stat line? 3 K's in 35 AB's. That's something that's nice to see.

I like Ozuna over Marisnick, but geez he's making them think about it. He's also shown off his speed on various occasions.

[Bobbob1313]

He's probably a huge upgrade over Hech.

Not even probably.

Put up a 96 OPS+ and 2.3 WAR as a 22-year-old in his major-league debut. He's no worse than a league average player for a long time.
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I like Ozuna over Marisnick, but geez he's making them think about it. He's also shown off his speed on various occasions.

I'm totally fine with letting spring performance decide it, since neither is likely to stick all season long. They're basically the same prospect overall, with Marisnick projecting to be better defensively and Ozuna having a little more pop in his bat.

Ozuna wasn't so good in 300 PAs last season to hand it to him, though his pop could play better in the lineup if he translates. He didn't last season.

[Mainge]

Marisnick is really making it tough for Red to not choose him as a starter on opening day. He's 3 for 3 so far today with 2 singles and a double with a current BA of .429 through 35 ABs and OBP around .480's. The best part of his stat line? 3 K's in 35 AB's. That's something that's nice to see.

I like Ozuna over Marisnick, but geez he's making them think about it. He's also shown off his speed on various occasions.

The strikeout numbers are definitely neat

[dim]

I'd start Marisnick over Ozuna. While I still have my concerns with Marisnick, he proved himself at the AA level hitting wise and showed at the major league level that he's a ++ defensive CFer. Let Ozuna spend time in either AA/AAA and learn more. We've already rushed Marisnick and let him go through his growing pains. Even given a small sample size, it's nice to see him not get down on himself and perform well in Spring Training.

I'd starting Marisnick in CF and let him hit 7th just in front of Hech. Even if he only mildly improves and hits something like .240, his defense will make him a positive player on the roster. Hell put up a sub .500 OPS last year in limited time and still managed to post a positive WAR (albeit barely).

[Bobbob1313]

Hech makes me sad.

[Big Z]

We also have Silveiro who's headed to AA. I think I read he's gotten 3 doubles and a homer so far in minor league spring training. Not bad for a guy coming off injury plagued seasons.
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By the way, we are 1st in the MLB in pitching this spring.

I read an article that the 2 best teams last spring in pitching were the Cards and Sox.. It's only spring training, but it's a fun fact nonetheless.

[Bobbob1313]

If Silviero's ever more than a 4th outfielder, I'll be stunned.

[Todd]

I like the fact that the Marlins could deal guys like Cishek, Ramos, and Dunn at the deadline and possibly still have a pretty awesome inhouse(and young) bullpen in the coming years. I am of course factoring in guys like DeSclafini, Flynn, Conley, and Hand being pushed to the pen due to depth; guys like Wittgren, Urena, and Suggs progressing; and Edgar Olmos and Carter Capps figuring it out.

Granted, it very well might not happen, but still nice to think about.

[Bobbob1313]

And if not, they will sign Joe Nelsons and be fine anyways because bullpen.

[dim]

Hechavarria makes us all sad.

[BigGameFish]

I agree about Turner's lack of "wow" factor. His stuff is not overpowering and his accuracy is less than average. He looks like a 7th inning gap bullpen arm at this point. He's still 22 which is the only thing going for him, but with the dearth of young lefties coming up he's definitely going to be the odd man out soon, so I wouldn't be disappointed in seeing him go for a reasonable return (we're not getting a plus starter for him).

As for Marisnick - Ozuna, I love Marisnicks athleticism in our spacious park, and Ozuna's arm for the same reason. Both guys to me are equal at this point even considering the spring numbers. Ozuna hit the go ahead, game winning homer in the 6th a few days ago, and I believe he has 5 or 6doubles, but he has struck out a lot. I think it makes sense to let him have the CF job and get more ABs for Marisnick in AAA to see if he truly has turned he corner at the plate. If he has and Ozuna is struggling in the majors, we swap them. If Ozuna is doing well, then we have great depth with potential trade bait. My reasoning here is that, to me, Marisnick's ceiling is much higher than Oz's.