'98 Marlins Watch

[Party]

Mets don't want the Marlins to come close.

[Omar]

Through 62 games:

2003 Detroit Tigers  16-46  --
1962 New York Mets   17-45  1
2013 Miami Marlins   18-44  2

Game 63 Results:

62 NYM: LOSS
03 DET: LOSS

Current Projected Record: 47-115
Current Projected Pyth Record: 55-107

Current Projected Run Differential: -214

Fun Fact: After this weekend's games, Blackout Pact's ERA is down to 1.80. Chewford, however, still has a better ERA at 1.33.

[Namaste]

But has BP started more game threads so therefore his 1.80 ERA is actually lower than Chewie's 1.33 ERA? I HAVE NO CLUE!

[Beef]

You might know

[Namaste]

I might not!

[Omar]

Through 63 games:

2003 Detroit Tigers  16-47  --
1962 New York Mets   17-46  1
2013 Miami Marlins   18-45  2

Game 64 Results:

62 NYM: LOSS
03 DET: LOSS

Current Projected Record: 46-116
Current Projected Pyth Record: 54-108

Current Projected Run Differential: -224

Fun Fact: Last night, Milwaukee became the fifth team (along with the Braves, White Sox, Padres, and Rays) to be undefeated against the Marlins. Our total record against those teams is 0-14.

[HUGG]

Fun fact: the Marlins (19-45, .297) would have to go 21-77 (.214) in their final 98 games to finish worse than the 1962 Mets.

Marlins are now 5-4 in June, matching the 2011 team's June win total

[Namaste]

Fun fact: the Marlins (19-45, .297) would have to go 21-77 (.214) in their final 98 games to finish worse than the 1962 Mets.l

So you're saying there's a chance?

[HUGG]

anything is possible

[dim]

It's been said before, but the Mets are doing everything in their power to keep us from their record.

[Omar]

Through 64 games:

2003 Detroit Tigers  16-48  --
1962 New York Mets   17-47  1
2013 Miami Marlins   19-45  3

Game 65 Results:

62 NYM: WIN
03 DET: WIN

Current Projected Record: 48-114
Current Projected Pyth Record: 55-107

Current Projected Run Differential: -218

Fun Fact: nny's game thread victory last night already gives him more wins than 14 different posters.

[Omar]

Through 65 games:

2003 Detroit Tigers  17-48  --
1962 New York Mets   18-47  1
2013 Miami Marlins   19-46  2

Game 66 Results:

62 NYM: LOSS
03 DET: LOSS

Current Projected Record: 47-115
Current Projected Pyth Record: 53-109

Current Projected Run Differential: -237

Fun Fact: Tonight's game was the 12th time this season that the Marlins were beaten by at least five runs. On nine of those occasions, the Marlins have scored one run or fewer.

[HUGG]

20-46 (.303) after 66 games. 20-74 (.213) the the next 94 games to match the 62 Mets.

If nothing else, that puts into stark reality how bad the 1962 Mets were. We've won 20 times in 66 games and yet we still have to be considerably worse (win the same number of games we've won so far in 28 extra attempts) than we've been to come close to them.

[emkayseven]

The Miami Marlins insist it's getting better. The Houston Astros think they actually have tangible evidence of improvement — sometimes.

They're still the two worst teams in baseball, both grasping to find just enough positives to avoid what threaten to be losing seasons of historic proportions.

The Marlins have earned six of their 19 wins in the last two weeks but still are on pace for a 47-115 season, a level of losing topped twice in the last 70 years. A recent six-game winning streak by Houston seemed to put history on hold, but the Astros' subsequent fourth six-game losing streak of the season left them just four games better than Miami.

The 1962 New York Mets' record of 120 losses isn't out of reach, nor is the possibility the major leagues could have two teams finish with sub-.300 winning percentages for the first time since 1911.

The Marlins and Astros both were below .300 as recently as May 29, and Miami continues to do its part at 19-46 (.292). Houston is 23-44 (.343), thanks largely to seven victories against the Los Angeles Angels.

"We knew it would be a rough year," Marlins President Larry Beinfest says. "But the way we've performed has been disappointing. As extreme as it has been, we're getting to a point that we can truly see where it's headed."

Beinfest insists the direction is up as he begins to inject more promising young players into a roster that was gutted of most veterans after the Marlins decided losing 93 games last year with a $118 million payroll was bad business.

Miami got its one marquee player — slugging outfielder Giancarlo Stanton — back from six weeks on the disabled list this week, and he won a game Tuesday with an eighth-inning home run. Meanwhile, the current roster must continue to deal with losses that are overwhelming more because they feel like a sudden punch to the gut rather than the methodical beatdown of an overmatched team.

Of the Marlins' 46 losses, 22 are by one or two runs or in extra innings — none worse than a recent 11-inning game at the Philadelphia Phillies in which John Mayberry erased a Miami lead with a 10th-inning homer and then won it with a grand slam.

"Can't finish it out," first-year manager Mike Redmond says. "We had them lined up perfect."

"It's getting better," says Juan Pierre, the 35-year-old outfielder who won a World Series with the franchise a decade ago with Redmond as a teammate. "A lot of these guys were pegged for Double-A this year. But they're fun to watch. They're still working hard. We've just got to make sure there's not a culture of losing — and accepting losing. It still has to burn a little."

That's the fear the Astros had when they hired hard-driving Bo Porter to manage this year.

"Everything we're doing here needs to be done in a manner where the culture changes and guys understand the sense of urgency and the need for change," Porter says. "It was not a good situation.

"I've stressed to these guys that the first thing they have to realize is things will never be the same. After that, what do you do? You have to change the way they think."

These two teams still have nearly 100 games each to settle which is worse. The Astros have the vivid reminder of a numbing 4-34 stretch in July and August that was part of a 33-84 finish last season.

Houston would have to go 25-70 the rest of this year to sink below the .300 mark.

The Astros can latch on to their uncanny 7-3 dominance — including a four-game sweep — of the Angels, a team perceived before the season as a potential powerhouse every bit as much as Houston was being anointed the game's worst team. But the Astros don't get another crack at the Angels until mid-August.

"We're looking for positives every day," Beinfest says. "We're already getting a glimpse. What we did this winter was extreme."

Now, for both the Marlins and Astros, it's a matter of how extreme their summer will be.

***

A look at the prognosis for the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins:

Current talent

The simplified version is that the Marlins don't score and the Astros don't stop the opposition from scoring.

Miami:

If the Marlins aren't last in an offensive category (and they are in total bases, runs and OPS among others), they're within a bad game or two of reaching the bottom. Their one fearsome slugger, Stanton, is back. Still, with little protection in the lineup, is seeing 11% fewer strikes this year before his hamstring injury than last season. Matching his NL-best .608 slugging percentage of a year ago will be difficult.

Ozuna and second baseman Derek Dietrich have been in-season boosts from the minor league system.

Veteran Ricky Nolasco and rookie Jose Fernandez are the bright spots of the rotation but a bullpen with the highest walk rate in the NL just adds to the "find-a-way-to-lose" undercurrent that can devastate a team.

Houston:

The pitching numbers are skewed by those scattered blowouts, but only the Toronto bullpen has logged more innings in the AL. If that workload continues, the Astros will be only more prone to games getting out of hand.

But it's the Astros offense that provides hope. Their home ballpark helps the hitters and manager Bo Porter predicted from spring training Chris Carter could run into 30 or so homers (he leads the team with 13) while trying to become consistent enough to be one of the few current hitters who could be part of a long-term solution. In the meantime, the Houston roster is mostly a mix of sub-blue chip prospects and some experienced players with solid Class AAA credentials. That can be enough to snag a few extra victories without having much bearing on how quickly the Astros will become truly competitive.

***

Help of the horizon

It can't come soon for Miami, which has more high-ceiling prospects, though the Astros have the edge in volume after loading up from other organizations through trades over the past year.

"The big question is now much star power is there," says Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow, who was stunned by the lack of talent at the upper levels of the minor leagues when he took over at the end of 2011. He calls his trades the equivalent of providing another draft class.

Houston made pitcher Mark Appel its second consecutive first overall draft pick tonight to go with high school shortstop Carlos Correa from last year. The best nearly ready prospects for the Astros are outfielder George Springer and first baseman Jonathan Singleton.

Meanwhile, Houston can experiment but shuttling a handful of pitchers from the farm system, getting a sense of who might succeed in the majors without overexposing them.

Ozuna's impact in Miami has been quicker than anticipated but Christian Yelich is the head of the class offensively and he's the hitting version of Fernandez as a combination of talent and polish. Yelich has had a couple of minor injuries this season but might not be far behind Stanton in both arrival time and impact for the lineup. A Stanton-Yelich-Ozuna outfield could be in place before the All-Star break.

***

Tradable assets

The end of July is when franchises like the Astros and Marlins often take a step back as part of the process of moving forward. Trading veterans to contenders near the July 31 trade deadline can help restock the minor league system.

The downside is, as the Astros learned in last year's disastrous second half, the immediate negative impact on the major league roster.

This year, Houston has fewer available veterans who could be enticing trade chips. Pitcher Bud Norris is the player most likely to bring a reasonable return. First baseman Carlos Pena and reliever Jose Veras are other possibilities.

How the Marlins handle the deadline will be instructive, especially to fans upset by last winter's purge. Nolasco and Pierre are in the final year of their contracts and obvious choices to go. The more interesting cases are Stanton and first baseman Logan Morrison. Both will be eligible for arbitration for the first time after this season.

Miami must decide, especially with Stanton, on the core players it will invest in going forward and there's no indication that Stanton is necessarily willing to commit to a long-term deal.

***

Ownership

Jim Crane, in his second year as Astros owner, says he is committed to Luhnow's plan to revamp the team from the bottom up. Attendance dropped to 1.6 million last season, last in the NL and the franchise's lowest since 1995. It's not likely to improve much, if at all, this season.

So, the question is Crane's patience while waiting for the community to warm up to the next wave of players. Hiring Reid Ryan, son of Hall of Famer and Texas icon Nolan Ryan, as club president adds some credibility with the fans.

Fairly or not, credibility is an issue that won't go away in Miami. Owner Jeffrey Loria was vilified after the winter trades of the players he spent lavishly on a year earlier to coincide with the Marlins' new ballpark.

Whether the roster makeover was a good baseball move remains to be seen – many of those same players are the core of a disappointing Toronto team this year – but the reality is that the Marlins can't just rebuild like the Astros or even higher-profile teams like the Cubs and Mets without questions about their motives.

The perception among fans and even players is tainted by the team's exceedingly frugal ways before the new stadium.

They've sunk back to last in the NL in attendance, a position they held for six consecutive years before last year's brief new-ballpark honeymoon.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...ilure/2421459/

[Omar]

Through 69 games:

2003 Detroit Tigers  17-52  --
1962 New York Mets   19-50  2
2013 Miami Marlins   22-47  5

Game 70 Results:

62 NYM: LOSS
03 DET: WIN

Current Projected Record: 52-110
Current Projected Pyth Record: 55-107

Current Projected Run Differential: -221

Fun Fact: After the weekend, the Cardinals joined the Mets as teams the Marlins have winning records against.