2024-2025 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

AAAAAnd we traded him to the rays of course

[lou]

Bruce has showed zero inkling of wanting to spend more than pennies, while feeding everyone the line of “spend when ready”, which has come and gone a couple of times.
i have zero confidence they’re remotely willing to consider a move like that.

I am close to zero which seems to be missed yet again, however that move costs less than what Bruce has spent so when pointing out Bruce is cheap. Well, that would be expecting him to be even cheaper than he has been with a Correa level acquisition as payroll goes down with this suggestion based on the 22-24 expenditure average. This was baked in.

I practically think they are going to move Sandy, Luzardo, Sanchez, Bender, Nardi, and one of the 2B (Edwards/Serna/Otto/Acosta) to effectively bring in 4 more club controlled bats at SS/3B/CF/RF (those names are because of money, RP volatile and getting close to arb, and it's just a lot of 2B and they gotta move one), and then they'll have a full 26 man roster of "names that make sense" by summer 2026 and $40-50m to spend for opportunistic luxury upgrades from there. Which such amount, gasp!, they'll be able to spend annually for years and years as yes that is how much payroll they would clear combined with their club controlled players. If you think Bruce doesn't spend that, cool. But he has already spent that on average the last 3 years, it has just apportioned into annual payments to Garcia, Soler, Segura, Anderson, Bell, Burger, Robertson, Arraez, etc. But if Bendix is making the right moves, they can then use that amount over 1-2 players for more impact versus 4-5 guys to fill holes. So is Bendix doing a good job which gives him more of a FA war chest in the future? Who is actually going to be traded? Does it matter when the Mets spend $400m and is baseball fundamentally out of whack because of it? But I digress.

The no trade clause is certainly an issue for players such as Correa, but if a player isn't wanted things can change quickly. Shit on the Marlins all you want, but Miami is a better place to live as a rich Puerto Rican guy than Minneapolis. Presuming you think the team is going to be good and if that transaction happens. Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, and multiple other pitchers still around with a legitimate youth core in Mack, Ramirez, DDLS, Edwards/Serna, Acosta, Norby, another Twins prospect, etc. is a very intriguing team. Minnesota has a good team, but if you aren't wanted, you aren't wanted. Correa also does have options they can make player options on top of vesting to note. Maybe they opt to move other payroll (Castro, old friend Paddack, Buxton, etc.), but something is going to give there so worth exploring as Luzardo-Correa line up as injury risk swaps and net off the money with prospects/secondary guys.

Is it unlikely OF COURSE, but when we evaluate why the F are the Marlins doing things like Burger, the path to contention in 2026 is doing something like this to set up for when more prospects graduate and hopefully a Baltimore situation erupts.... or they don't do shit like that and do what I said above. We wait for practically the Sandy charge and other guys like Luzardo/Sanchez/Bender in arbitration, and 2026 isn't circled. It's 2027. Cue the forever kicking the can point and give it a rimshot. Cause it probably ain't wrong so why should we care and I do think this is the offseason with the Mets/Dodgers spending that really breaks me until Bruce sells.

[lou]

Fangraphs also doesn't love the Burger deal and Vargas is extremely volatile - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/everythi...rger-in-texas/

I think this one is about right and is another Peter believes in his guys move (D. Head, DDLS).

[Nick]

But he’s going to hit arbitration in a year, so the Marlins figured he was about to get expensive, and they’re too poor even for the poor man’s slugger..

Ouch.

[Todd]

Considering what the White Sox got for Crochet I'll actually be pissed if Luzardo and Alcantra aren't moved.

[sports24/7]

I think reasonable minds can disagree with the bold. It is the cautionary tale of Mark Trumbo who has pretty solid at ages 29 and 30, and then popped off a -1.7 WAR age 31. This is a classic get rid of them 1 year too early and a very Rays type move where they constantly traded performing guys for names, and somehow it worked out for them more times than not. Maybe it backfires - like Nick suggesting guys like E5 hold up longer which he certainly did - but he's more of a Trumbo, Cron, and C. Davis to me than the Encarnacion outlier.

I'm with Todd. I am perfectly OK trading him, but this falls into what is this return and are they getting players for him? I genuinely don't know much about these guys as they weren't high on prospect radars, but as mentioned, the Rangers who are very deep put Acosta on their 40 man which is a huge compliment and as Fish16 said, it seems most consider Vargas the key part of the return so there is some upside there. This is two interesting infield names for sure. I would just say, Acosta better be able to play SS and 3B as a backup at minimum.


And moves are coming, but I say that with an 18 month runway as 1-2 SP and 1-2 of "the 2B types" will be moved IMO along with spare parts (RP, outside top 20 prospects, even Sanchez to move more money out as he is in arbitration) to get the last 3-4 guys Bendix thinks he needs. Who knows when but we've just been telegraphed 2025 doesn't matter so why worry about this and whatever they field does not matter as we're just waiting on Mack, Ramirez, DDLS, Serna, now Acosta, Snelling, Mazur, and others to replace those AAAA guys.

Sure. That’s part of the point. You got VERY little for him. Could he be worth less in a few months? I guess. Would it matter? Not really. But his value could conceivably go up, and teams tend to be more desperate at the trade deadline. It just doesn’t feel like this was a deal that needed to be made right now, and when you combine that with the fact that he’s one of the few popular players left on the team, it feels like a pretty big middle finger to the fans.

[fish16]

they ended up keeping hicks. Interesting bat, more walks than k's in his career. Tigers got him for carson kelly at the deadline. Id imagine it's him and Fortes to start the year as our dynamic catching duo that hits it's weight

[sports24/7]

Considering what the White Sox got for Crochet I'll actually be pissed if Luzardo and Alcantra aren't moved.

I don’t know that I’d move both, but despite everything I said about a middle finger to the fans, if you can get a monster return for Sandy, I do think it makes a lot of sense. I don’t think they’ll do it because the optics would be about as bad as they could be, but that’s the move that could set you up for success if they really do plan to contend in a couple of years (that’s a big if).

[Nick]

they ended up keeping hicks. Interesting bat, more walks than k's in his career. Tigers got him for carson kelly at the deadline. Id imagine it's him and Fortes to start the year as our dynamic catching duo that hits it's weight

13 HRs in 1100 minor league PAs. Never played above AA.

[fish16]

13 HRs in 1100 minor league PAs. Never played above AA.

dynamic!!!

[Nick]

"Liam Hicks Org rank (33) Hicks is an undersized catcher with fantastic bat-to-ball ability. He's striking out at just a 13.7% clip throughout his pro career and he's continued to make plus rates of contact all the way through Double-A. He swings bent at the waist with his hands over the top of the zone, which helps Hicks' bat path take a pretty extreme vertical angle through contact. Plus contact and consistent lift are undercut by his lack of raw power. He's a smaller guy and doesn't have big juice. Hicks has also struggled to develop on defense. Too often he just whiffs on catching pitches and he gives up a ton of long rebounds. His special feel for hitting should still allow him to play forever and accrue some big league time as a team's fourth catcher."

Yeah, I'd have just kept Banfield, about a year younger, played in AAA. Maybe he would've never hit at the bigs, but we're comparing potential backup catchers here. Give me the one who is a plus fielder.

[lou]

Considering what the White Sox got for Crochet I'll actually be pissed if Luzardo and Alcantra aren't moved.

Crochet (2 years of control) got a

FV50 (top 50 overall prospect)
FV45+
40+
40

This is like White, Serna, DDLS, and Mesa Jr. level return for him.

I think you'd get a little bit more for Sandy as he has a 3rd control year even if expensive (2nd or 3rd/4th player improved), and a little bit less for Luzardo (backend top 100, third player a flyer, no fourth player)


If you traded both and are treated as healthy players (Crochet hasn't exactly been healthy either), you get something like:

Top 50ish prospect
Top 100 prospect (back end guy)
FV45+
FV45ish
FV45ish
FV40ish
FV40 flyer
$70 million dollars

If those first two players are SS, 3B, and CF, and one of the 45s is the third one, and those three players are MLB ready at some point in 2026 even if the others are lower level guys, you can sell me on this pretty quickly.

[lou]

A tidbit of minor interest is this new catcher guy Hicks had a .781 RHP / .569 LHP split last year (he is left handed). It was a more neutral set up in previous years, but it makes sense moving up levels and the lefty specialists start showing up.

It didn't really materialize last year, but Fortes is a .678 LHP / .598 RHP career split.

In theory this splits out a nice platoon of Fortes getting the lefties and half the righties (because of defense), and Hicks gets the other half of the righties in a 100+ / 50+ platoon split. Effectively a pretty standard set up.

Base running might be wild when Hicks is behind the plate, but maybe this is a short term thing until the Super2 deadline mid July when Ramirez presumably comes up, and then Hicks sets himself up as bench C/1B/DH/Pinch Hitter type which they'd have room sans Burger (sigh) versus Martorella or Berry (or Bride) which is frankly his real longterm competition as it doesn't seem like he'll be a catcher. If they can hold onto Hicks for the year, he'd have two option years in 26/27 which then swings back around into something fun as a decent sounding hit tool call up and maybe he does figure it out defensively. Roboumps may change catcher value dramatically as framing evaporates and all we care about is throwing out enough runners at 2B and hitting the ball. He seemingly will do the later compared to his peers.

I think the Rays wanting him is the best indicator he is interesting to say the least. I'm with Nick, just keep Banfield and take the defense of AAAA catchers and you can sit on Banfield for 3 years to see if the bat shows up, but maybe Hicks is just part of the bridge to Ramirez (or Mack) and Martorella and Berry better get their shit together in AAA or this guy might be a better pesky bench bath.

Effectively, this is a fine flyer but they still could have picked Banfield over Pereda.

[lou]

Mendoza, reading up, might be a sneaky good get. Looks like a power lefty that could move through a system fast with a move to the bullpen.

Pipeline added him as prospect 29. He seems more of a pitchability lefty though (Mendoza creates deception with his sub-6-foot release point and wide arm angle. He has some crossfire in his delivery). This sounds like a 6th SP/third lefty in the pen who can handle multiple innings if he makes it. He might match up with Fulton and Veneziano well as a future lefty pen.

Interestingly, FG gave Acosta a FV45 which is good, Mendoza a FV40, and Vargas a.... FV35. Not even a FV35+. They don't like Vargas and think his impatience as a hitter is some of the worst in the minors. He's a boom or bust. A bit interesting most others have Vargas as the main piece and they think he is the flyer and even past Mendoza. Which goes to your point, he isn't just a name and is a legitimate enough FV40 prospect in his own right.

Personally, I think Acosta is probably the main piece and they are banking on some progression that he showed in the AFL. They did this last year too with Marsee who had a good AFL and then he didn't set the world on fire but we'll see as he did a little better in AAA.

[Todd]

Ya i was going off his #'s and making a guess. Interesting stats for a finesse LHP.