2024-2025 Offseason Thread

[Todd]

I know a lot of people liked Burger but at the end of the day he was a pretty horrid hitter outside of hitting for power who doesnt get on base or work counts, turns 29 in a few months(and players of his profile don't age well generally) and was awful at every position he attempted to play.

The fan base probably overrated him simply because he was one of the few on the roster with pop but he likely didn't have the value some thought he did while also needing to sell high on him while you can.

[fish16]

FWIW, BA has Vargas as 10th in the rangers system and a 50 FV with high volatility. 90th percentile exit velocity among his peers, whatever the fuck that means. They say he has the tools to be an average defender at 2b but the arm strength to fill in on the left side of the infield from time to time.

The other 2 guys, like MLB.com, are not in the rangers top 30.

[Todd]

Mendoza, reading up, might be a sneaky good get. Looks like a power lefty that could move through a system fast with a move to the bullpen.

[sports24/7]

I know a lot of people liked Burger but at the end of the day he was a pretty horrid hitter outside of hitting for power who doesnt get on base or work counts, turns 29 in a few months(and players of his profile don't age well generally) and was awful at every position he attempted to play.

The fan base probably overrated him simply because he was one of the few on the roster with pop but he likely didn't have the value some thought he did while also needing to sell high on him while you can.

For me, the problem isn’t that Burger some kind of great player. He was a fan favorite, and there wasn’t much reason to trade him. Especially when the best player you got back is similar to a bunch of other players in the system and really far away. It’s just another fuck you to the fans with little upside. Why feel any urgency to trade him now? His value wouldn’t have gone down much, and conceivably could have gone up with a hot start.

I suppose there could be another move coming that makes this make more sense, but I’m not holding my breath. More likely they’ll sign some AAAA guy who was once in the Rays system, who will never amount to anything.

[lou]

For me, the problem isn’t that Burger some kind of great player. He was a fan favorite, and there wasn’t much reason to trade him. Especially when the best player you got back is similar to a bunch of other players in the system and really far away. It’s just another fuck you to the fans with little upside. Why feel any urgency to trade him now? His value wouldn’t have gone down much, and conceivably could have gone up with a hot start.

I suppose there could be another move coming that makes this make more sense, but I’m not holding my breath. More likely they’ll sign some AAAA guy who was once in the Rays system, who will never amount to anything.

I think reasonable minds can disagree with the bold. It is the cautionary tale of Mark Trumbo who has pretty solid at ages 29 and 30, and then popped off a -1.7 WAR age 31. This is a classic get rid of them 1 year too early and a very Rays type move where they constantly traded performing guys for names, and somehow it worked out for them more times than not. Maybe it backfires - like Nick suggesting guys like E5 hold up longer which he certainly did - but he's more of a Trumbo, Cron, and C. Davis to me than the Encarnacion outlier.

I'm with Todd. I am perfectly OK trading him, but this falls into what is this return and are they getting players for him? I genuinely don't know much about these guys as they weren't high on prospect radars, but as mentioned, the Rangers who are very deep put Acosta on their 40 man which is a huge compliment and as Fish16 said, it seems most consider Vargas the key part of the return so there is some upside there. This is two interesting infield names for sure. I would just say, Acosta better be able to play SS and 3B as a backup at minimum.


And moves are coming, but I say that with an 18 month runway as 1-2 SP and 1-2 of "the 2B types" will be moved IMO along with spare parts (RP, outside top 20 prospects, even Sanchez to move more money out as he is in arbitration) to get the last 3-4 guys Bendix thinks he needs. Who knows when but we've just been telegraphed 2025 doesn't matter so why worry about this and whatever they field does not matter as we're just waiting on Mack, Ramirez, DDLS, Serna, now Acosta, Snelling, Mazur, and others to replace those AAAA guys.

[lou]

Mendoza, reading up, might be a sneaky good get. Looks like a power lefty that could move through a system fast with a move to the bullpen.

Yea I'm not even thinking about him but just suggests there is some sneaky value here. This is a total wait and see for me.

[lou]

FWIW, BA has Vargas as 10th in the rangers system and a 50 FV with high volatility. 90th percentile exit velocity among his peers, whatever the fuck that means. They say he has the tools to be an average defender at 2b but the arm strength to fill in on the left side of the infield from time to time.

The other 2 guys, like MLB.com, are not in the rangers top 30.

I posted this but FG bumped Acosta to a FV45 - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting...0-man-rosters/

That would make Acosta a top 10 prospect in Rangers and Marlins system based on their midseason 2024 update. Considering the Rangers added him to their 40 man, that sounds about right and just a guy the scouting services missed in 2024 until the end.

For perspective, via FG, a FV45 is higher than DDLS, Snelling, Mazur, and Mack in their midseason update. However I will agree with you in your anticipated response, at least Snelling and Mack will likely rise above him here in the FV45/FV45+ tier with their seasons. DDLS maybe too because it was a lot of HR, but I will continue to be concerned with the whiffs until I see 1,000 MLB PA. In that same 40 man fangraphs article, DDLS is still a FV40+ for them.

Ultimately, I see Acosta and Vargas landing in the Marlins top 10-15 guys in most places and maybe a little higher in some if there is some new found love for either or disbelief in a guy (see, DDLS above). Using pipeline (https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/marlins) that 11-14 range with Mazur, Alderman, Sanoja, and Millbrandt seems like the floor for both of them.


Time will tell, but all I know is, we have a real skeptical 162 in front of us if any of us still care come March.

[lou]

Acosta and Vargas popped in 16 and 17 on pipeline - https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/marlins. Both SS/2B.

So slightly lower than anticipated, but we'll see what it looks like in March I guess. All relative as mid prospects ultimately.



And I just remembered they signed Ronny Simon who is a Rays 2B type - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ro...ts?position=2B

So practically speaking, this is all MLB ready at 2B

Edwards, Otto, Serna, Acosta, Simon, and Norby (and Brujan, Bride, Sanoja, and Pauley on 40 man)
{And C. Johnson, G. Miller, and Vargas in top 20 prospects}


Something has gotta give here as this is massive redundancy and the only 2 guys that may have some real game power (Johnson and Vargas) are years away.

Someone will be moved before opening day.

[rmc523]

I don’t know on what planet we can come up with scenarios where we acquire Correa as if Bruce suddenly wants to pay him AND give up other pieces when he could’ve had him for just money an offseason or two ago (I think it was 2?)

[lou]

I don’t know on what planet we can come up with scenarios where we acquire Correa as if Bruce suddenly wants to pay him AND give up other pieces when he could’ve had him for just money an offseason or two ago (I think it was 2?)

There is a really good reason here.


Correa signed a $200m contract with Minnesota starting in 2023. Two hundred.

In this "surplus value" analysis hypothetical trade, he would cost the Marlins effectively $100m. That is an enormous drop in guaranteed money.


3x3 trade + money
Luzardo/Otto or other non-Edwards 2B/Probably a RP we are OK moving. Minnesota gets a cash savings of over $90m+ over 4 years.
x
Correa, Vazquez, and an excellent OF top 100 level prospect, E. Rodriguez sort of thing, and sending around $30m-$35m to the Marlins spread over 4 years.


So it is $100m in less money to acquire him for 2 less seasons than what Minnesota did (all of this is a big deal), and it costs you 2 seasons of Luzardo and 2 guys you really don't care about but do have contending club value. And also get a top 100 OF prospect that projects as your best OF in the organization. Because taking on that kind of cash is a mega-incentive for Minnesota to do something else and Vazquez's $10m is a big kicker here on top for 2025. Minnesota ownership has said payroll has to go down and it's going to be hard to trade Correa in general, let alone an not eat more than I am proposing here as this is over $90m in bailout to them. They could roll out a Miranda - Julian - Lee - Royce infield easily, with Otto/Other as their 5th IF and they have other OF/1B types (Buxton, Keaschell, Larch, Wallner, Jenkins). And Keaschell can play some IF too and they also have Willi Castro if they keep him, And Austin Martin can probably dabble at 2B still. Like, the Twins don't need this guy at all if they can get pitching and funds and this is pitching and funds. Call it Nardi as the RP going back to them too. Who cares. You're getting a vastly encheaped Correa who is a superstar and it gives you some credibility even if he has injury risk.

And then on top of this, the Marlins have cleared out payroll (Arraez, Burger was entering arbitration next year, Luzardo, got out of Segura/Bell, Garcia's last expensive year is this one, etc.), so now there is more room for this type of thing $$$ wise when that didn't exist in 2023, as they are replacing all of those guys with club controlled options (Edwards, DDLS, Ramirez, Acosta, Snelling, Mazur, Norby, etc.) so all those funds can go to the proverbial, 1 better player instead of spreading it out to Cueto, Segura, Anderson, Garcia, Bell, and Soler. It's not more money. It's just used better because they have club controlled options.


So that's why. He's not just cheaper. He is a lot cheaper and genuinely helps out Minnesota.

Again, do I think they will do it? No. They are stupid. But personnel and $$$ it works, and even after the Burger move, this is the type of move that makes sense for everyone. It's an opportunity cost to buy a depressed asset of a team needing to lower payroll and he is their most expensive player and Luzardo is a major get as part of that as he's great when healthy. (And Minnesota has no lefties).

[Nick]

Correa has a full no-trade clause, right? Why the fuck would he want to come here?

[Todd]

Otto Lopez also has zero trade value.

[rmc523]

Bruce has showed zero inkling of wanting to spend more than pennies, while feeding everyone the line of “spend when ready”, which has come and gone a couple of times.
i have zero confidence they’re remotely willing to consider a move like that.

[Todd]

I would assume when ready translates to when there is a good core and he can sell the team and pass them off to someone else.
At some point, MLB has to get a viable owner in this market. They have been self sabotaging it for 2+ decades.

[fish16]

liam hicks is the pick in the rule 5. catcher from the tigers. 25 in AA, more walks than k's but that's about it. not sure on defense. hope he plays good defense because the bat doesnt look promising other than good discipline.