2024-2025 Offseason Thread

[fauowls44]

It makes sense in that it’s a complete and total tear down, just like I said when they traded Arraez and you gave me shit for. They are going to lose the window of having solid pitching, then probably cycle back to having solid hitting with no pitching in 4 years

But it doesn’t make sense in that context either. It’s already a complete year down with or without Burger on the roster. In a tear down, you wouldn’t be rushing DDLS or Ramirez either, let alone burning service time to have them start on opening day. The only way it makes sense is if they have another move coming because even the Marlins can’t go into the season with the same offense minus Burger. They need to add another bat somewhere. Maybe it’s a RHH outfielder/DH instead of a 1B only/DH type like Burger. To me that’s the only justification for this…positional flexibility…and even that is stretching it.

[lou]

Even if DDLS starts at 1B on Opening Day, this trade makes virtually no sense. Make it make sense, Peter.

I will put on my Peter mask and make it make sense for the sake of discourse.

I'm going to say that again - I am putting on my Peter mask.


Burger is going to be Trumbo/Cron/C. Davis kind of slugger and we're trading him a year early before the bottom drops out. These players must be traded a year early like how the Rays traded guys at good production then don't materialize elsewhere.

We are obviously not contending in 2025, and I have learned from my 2024 mistake and removing guys outside of our contending plan (Peter's inner monologue - I too don't know that date but it is not now) and not carrying them to the deadline for shit to happen. Like Luzardo getting hurt, etc.

We like Martorella, Berry, and Bride to be our # 2 1B/DH type behind DDLS long term so Burger is expendable, especially as he approaches arbitration where his HR totals will inflate his worth. Ramirez might also end up here too, so we are trading from a position of depth even if not fully materialized at the MLB level. If I had to guess, I'm going to say Martorella as my classic left handed Rays 1B type who makes good swing decisions and you'll see, he's gonna hit RHP.

We need some versatile SS/3B infielders as our depth is low as all we have is a plethora of 2B. Yes Acosta had a 2B/3B 2023 fan graphs scouting report, but have you seen him recently that he was added to the Rangers - a deeper team than ours - 40 man roster and FG upgraded him to an offseason FV45 and SS projection (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting...0-man-rosters/). Acosta is not "peanuts" by any stretch and is a rapidly ascending prospect similar to how Edwards and Serna both ended as FV45s.

Vargas is also probably not a SS which yes I know we need, but he can dabble there and maybe we get lucky, and more importantly he can work out at 3B even if just a slugging utility backup as how MLB pipeline describes him.

And we got another prospect as a lottery ticket.

Big picture, we need more all over IF types and not just 2B projection guys. We accomplished getting our floor quality backup SS and 3B in our minds. Both these guys are probably top 10-15 in our farm system, and would be top 12-18 range in Rangers system so we feel good about this as Jake Eder would also be top 10-15 in our farm system at best so we have overall improved our depth from how this all began.


I'm going to say that again - I am putting on my Peter mask.


I can now roll out this by summer 2026 and while yes we all like Burger, this is a deeper and more fluid depth chart for the bats.

C/DH - Mack, Ramirez/Fortes
1B/DH - DDLS, Ramirez/Martorella/Berry
2B - Edwards/Serna
SS - _____, Acosta/Serna/Otto
3B - ____, Vargas/Pauley/Acosta/Sanoja
LF - Norby
CF - ____, Sanoja/Mesa Jr/Marsee/Pintar
RF - Sanchez/Stowers/Alderman/Berry/Dane


And now, I have this to trade still to plug these final 3 blank lines. And I agree with you, I need to acquire some real bangers for at least 2 of these blank lines and I too feel kicked in the shins not getting a top 2 draft pick.

Luzardo
Another SP - Sandy/Garrett/Cabrera
At least one of Edwards/Serna/Otto/Acosta, probably 2

I can live without two of those infielders and I'll still have 10 SP - Eury, Sandy/Garrett, Garrett/Cabrera, Weathers, Max, White, Noble, Snelling, Mazur, and Fulton. Plus we do like Millbrandt and have emerging minors depth with Benitez, Shim, Y. Santana, Shepardson, and others.

And I have some money to spend, and if I move Sandy, I'll have a lot more.



/end


So if I was Peter, I think that is what he is thinking. I imagine the above is pretty close to the thought process, and then what date do you want to circle - 26 27 or 28?

[Nick]

I swear I saw Vargas didn't have the arm for SS, so I don't see how he'll have the arm for 3B.

Acosta has to be able to play SS for me to see anything beyond a bench player. .724 career OPS in the minors. He had his breakout this year, but still only a .777 OPS. Isn't the Texas League supposed to be hitter friendly? Maybe not.

[lou]

But it doesn’t make sense in that context either. It’s already a complete year down with or without Burger on the roster. In a tear down, you wouldn’t be rushing DDLS or Ramirez either, let alone burning service time to have them start on opening day. The only way it makes sense is if they have another move coming because even the Marlins can’t go into the season with the same offense minus Burger. They need to add another bat somewhere. Maybe it’s a RHH outfielder/DH instead of a 1B only/DH type like Burger. To me that’s the only justification for this…positional flexibility…and even that is stretching it.

Since someone clicked their heels and said service time....

They can keep DDLS and Ramirez down 15 days into the season and preserve the year of service time. So they can be mid-April call ups and preserve a year. Effectively, they can play them 130+ games and not lose the year. That's fine in a tear down year of course.

More so, if they are also good, there would be draft pick bonus compensation attached to them if they get into ROY sweepstakes. Which I'm not sure if those two would do it (like Sasaki is gonna end up in SD/LAD right?), but there is the chance of that.

So the service time isn't a real issue here. The issue is 2025 is an official tank now as any scenario of contending needs Burger unless DDLS comes out of the gate blazing (not that we didn't kind of already know but we had HOPE they'd maybe try and contend).


And yes, if Burger goes, more moves have to be coming. I think we will see a SP and one of Edwards/Serna/Otto traded as there is a lot of 2B depth right now, as well as maybe a reliever or two. Nardi may be an all time high right now as everyone always be wanting lefties, and relievers are volatile. He may get a lot more than we'd expect. I will die on the hill Puk was sold low as a top 5 lefty reliever in baseball, but I bet a lot of you think Nardi is more valuable as he has some consistency with more years of control and look at what Puk got - DDLS and a guy rated as the best defender in the Arizona fall league for a potential 5th OF. They have stuff to trade big time and see that Peter hypothetical thought process above where the blank lines are dwindling and then maybe he can focus on upgrades versus needs. This team still has at least 3 major needs to me - longterm SS/3B/CF - and 3 major players they have on surplus (this is effectively Luzardo, Edwards/Serna, and another SP, and then secondary guys like Otto and relievers attached to them) are just gonna have to be the 3 trade sacrifices to get a guy for those spots.

Just kick 2025 out of your head and it starts making more sense - which yes is a pathetic thing to say.

And then we get to the big question - does any of this even matter if the Mets and Dodgers are going to run $400m payrolls? Peter will construct a nice, competitive, team that might be able to win some games and sneak into the wild card but how are you going to get through an onslaught of spendings (add Braves, Phillies, Padres, Cubs, etc.) every single year to ever have a chance?

[Nick]

But it doesn’t make sense in that context either. It’s already a complete year down with or without Burger on the roster. In a tear down, you wouldn’t be rushing DDLS or Ramirez either, let alone burning service time to have them start on opening day. The only way it makes sense is if they have another move coming because even the Marlins can’t go into the season with the same offense minus Burger. They need to add another bat somewhere. Maybe it’s a RHH outfielder/DH instead of a 1B only/DH type like Burger. To me that’s the only justification for this…positional flexibility…and even that is stretching it.

No they don't, they'll sign some AAAA scrub to a minor league contract and a ST invite. Play him at DH until DDDS' service time is to their liking and then jettison that dude.

[lou]

I swear I saw Vargas didn't have the arm for SS, so I don't see how he'll have the arm for 3B.

Acosta has to be able to play SS for me to see anything beyond a bench player. .724 career OPS in the minors. He had his breakout this year, but still only a .777 OPS. Isn't the Texas League supposed to be hitter friendly?

Pipeline says this for Vargas FWIW - He has reliable hands and solid arm strength but limited lateral range at shortstop, where he spent most of 2022, and is better fit at second base, where he played more often last summer. He's also a capable third baseman and projects as a slugging utilityman.

The FG 2023 report says Vargas was their second best defensive infielder in the Rangers system also.


I'm with you on Acosta, he has to be able to play SS (even as a backup) as he's probably not going to jump Edwards/Serna with the bat and then why are you getting him? I do like the Rangers put him on their 40 man. That is a big indication he is much better than what some scouting systems think.


I think they traded for their primary 2B/SS backup in Acosta and primary 3B/2B backup in Vargas practically. If nothing more, this seems like a step up defensively from Edwards/Serna. Maybe not Otto at 2B, but Otto is really screaming to be traded right now coming off an explosive year someone might buy, unless they think he is going to be that right handed platoon SS and range trumps arm strength. They absolutely have 2B to trade right now and someone in the league will be a buyer FWIW.

[fish16]

I could definitely see them taking the 2 rule 5 DH/1b types i mentioned a few weeks ago now. one of them put up crazy numbers after getting called up to AAA by the rays so i could see him being the guy.

[lou]

No they don't, they'll sign some AAAA scrub to a minor league contract and a ST invite. Play him at DH until DDDS' service time is to their liking and then jettison that dude.

Bingo.

Or..... Dane Myers or Conine. Why can't Dane play 1B? Or Conine? Get the gloves guys. Bride is gonna be a 5+ time a week starter regardless. He's that AAAA scrub.



They could do this for a "service time fun" team and wait for the service time to roll over for those 6 guys by Mid April to the summer

C - Fortes, Pereda ---> Ramirez, maybe Mack too
1B - Bride, Dane/Conine ----> DDLS, Martorella
2B - Edwards, Brujan ---> Serna
SS - Otto ---> Acosta
3B - Norby
LF - Stowers, Conine/Dane
CF - ______, D. Hill ---> Sanoja
RF - Sanchez


Like yea it is terrible, but the eyes on the prize is 2026 so like does it matter really?

[lou]

I could definitely see them taking the 2 rule 5 DH/1b types i mentioned a few weeks ago now. one of them put up crazy numbers after getting called up to AAA by the rays so i could see him being the guy.

I agree with you absent their being a SS/3B/CF/lefty reliever they like more, and just move "Dane" on that lame depth chart above to CF spot and that is your 2025 opening day roster while we wait for better days. If that ever happens

[fish16]

Bingo.

Or..... Dane Myers or Conine. Why can't Dane play 1B? Or Conine? Get the gloves guys. Bride is gonna be a 5+ time a week starter regardless. He's that AAAA scrub.



They could do this for a "service time fun" team and wait for the service time to roll over for those 6 guys by Mid April to the summer

C - Fortes, Pereda ---> Ramirez, maybe Mack too
1B - Bride, Dane/Conine ----> DDLS, Martorella
2B - Edwards, Brujan ---> Serna
SS - Otto ---> Acosta
3B - Norby
LF - Stowers, Conine/Dane
CF - ______, D. Hill ---> Sanoja
RF - Sanchez


Like yea it is terrible, but the eyes on the prize is 2026 so like does it matter really?

how is the eye on the prize 2026 with 0 cornerstone bats anywhere in the system? and how could you possibly have any faith that the decent hitting prospects they do have in the system are the ones that finally develop in this organization after 8 years of almost exclusive developmental failures? This is a situation where this team will never be a major league organization until they get a big money owner to take the team from this dipshit. this organization is in a worse spot than they ever have been, and that's saying something.

And they continue to talk about building up the infrastructure of the organization as if that isnt the exact same bullshit line that jeter and denbo used when this whole regime started. it's an excuse not to spend and behave like a major league organization.

[lou]

how is the eye on the prize 2026 with 0 cornerstone bats anywhere in the system? and how could you possibly have any faith that the decent hitting prospects they do have in the system are the ones that finally develop in this organization after 8 years of almost exclusive developmental failures? This is a situation where this team will never be a major league organization until they get a big money owner to take the team from this dipshit. this organization is in a worse spot than they ever have been, and that's saying something.

And they continue to talk about building up the infrastructure of the organization as if that isnt the exact same bullshit line that jeter and denbo used when this whole regime started. it's an excuse not to spend and behave like a major league organization.

They are kicking the can past 2025 is all I meant.

And where do I have faith beyond projecting what they are probably thinking?

I have been beating the drum on Bruce must go longer than anyone also? And now it's really getting bad as Jesus Christ these contracts where Max Fried is not a $200m player and if he is, we need Jeff Bezos to save us.

I literally said above does any of this matter when the Mets and Dodgers spend $400m?

We agree here how can we continue being fans of this team, as well as this SPORTS, if this is how things are heading?

[fish16]

shane smith is going to be the top pick in the rule 5 for the white sox. So that would leave one of blaine crim or Bob Seymour (the rays 1b guy) available for us at 3. Smith was one of the guys i brought up a few weeks ago, I could see phillies RHP Elberson Castellano and Rangers lefty reliever Bryan Magdaleno as well.

[lou]

Also I thought for some reason Vargas was closer, I thought it was a full A+ year down and not A so he is further back then I thought and would be a next wave guy in 2028 more than likely. He's with Head, Morlando, Johnson, Cova, and presumably IFA Salas, in the next batch.



Best case scenario for me would be Serna and Acosta can actually handle SS, and then maybe Peter is magical and can turn Luzardo into a 3B and CF..... ala absorbing Correa (and moving him to 3B), and getting E. Rodriguez as the kicker to taking on the money. I would maintain this is a great trade for everyone as it is equal injury risk players so if we're thinking how to get value out of Luzardo, it is trading for an equally risky and more expensive asset.

MINN ---> Luzardo, Otto, other non-40 man asset or two outside Marlins top 20 prospects, and saves Minnesota $90m dollars
MIA ----> Correa, E. Rodriguez, C. Vazquez (further salary dump component and Marlins trade when Ramirez ready in 2025), and $30m-ish sent over by Minnesota


This could then be the summer 2026 team and would be $85-90m overall..... and I note the top four paid players here are Correa, Sandy, Stanton, and Garcia and they'd make up roughly $58m of that $85-90m overall which is just ludicrous.

C/DH - Mack, Ramirez
1B/DH - DDLS, Martorella
2B - Edwards (Sanoja)
SS - Serna, Acosta
3B - Correa (Acosta/Sanoja)
LF - Norby (Martorella and RF backup)
CF - E. Rodrigez, Sanoja
RF - Sanchez, Stowers/Berry/Dane/Marsee

SP - Eury, Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Snelling
RHP - Max, Mazur, Faucher, Cronin, Tinoco/whoever
LHP - Nardi, Weathers, Veneziano

Dead Money - Stanton($10m), Garcia($5m)



So effectively, this still boils down to the making the big move for someone, anyone. And it kind of can start falling into place but they need that ALPHA bat at SS/3B/CF and another top 100 level prospect or better for the other spot which is what that Minnesota hypothetical does. Fish16 is right. There can be no confidence until something like this happens and what a gut punch LaViolette isn't falling to them now in the draft presumably.


If they do something like this whether it is Correa or someone else - and I have to really note here the team is still under $90m bucks in payroll so this isn't purely fan fiction and Sandy could be moved to further deflect massive salary here and they have arms as Noble and White aren't listed above and multiple current SP are in the bullpen - they will win some of my attention and then we'll see what kind of systems MLB puts into place as they can't have the Mets spending 5-7x more than the bottom few teams.



Alright that's it for now. This trade is just very interesting and it'll be at least interesting to see what happens next even if they still fucking suck.

[lou]

shane smith is going to be the top pick in the rule 5 for the white sox. So that would leave one of blaine crim or Bob Seymour (the rays 1b guy) available for us at 3. Smith was one of the guys i brought up a few weeks ago, I could see phillies RHP Elberson Castellano and Rangers lefty reliever Bryan Magdaleno as well.

They'd have gotten one of the Rangers guys thrown in if they wanted them probably right? I suppose the Rangers could call someone's bluff they'll keep them up all year but did they just see what happened with Nasim Nunez somehow?

I'd take the pitchers personally. Likely a better chance of sticking. They have Martorella and Berry for "that spot" and I genuinely think Conine and Dane better learn 1B this offseason as they have some real opportunity here

[fish16]

echedry vargas is apparently the get in the deal. Looking at the numbers they are impressive, especially the power for his size and his age relative to the level, but still. just completely unnecessary move IMO. We have 47 middle infielders who cant play SS.