2024-2025 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

And you know this how?

because i was alive in 2021 and i remember him coming into spring 40 pounds overweight and having not thrown for much of the offseason, and then immediately getting hurt in spring, then not following the marlins rehab plan for him all throughout 2021

[fish16]

Will Banfield elected free agency. they didnt add him to the 40 man. not sure why when they can just get rid of Pereda and add him. Not sure why you would let him go. Even if they end up having to DFA him later in the offseason, losing him while keeping pereda on the 40 man is pretty dumb.

[Nick]

Will Banfield elected free agency. they didnt add him to the 40 man. not sure why when they can just get rid of Pereda and add him. Not sure why you would let him go. Even if they end up having to DFA him later in the offseason, losing him while keeping pereda on the 40 man is pretty dumb.

Very.

[fish16]

now that im thinking of it that news doesnt seem to be correct. i havent seen it anywhere else. i think if we dont add banfield to the 40 man he just becomes rule 5 eligible, no?

edit- i guess since he has been in the system 6 years instead of 5 he does get the right to opt for free agency if he isnt added to the 40 man

[fish16]

i still think Ha-Seong Kim and Yoan moncada would be the 2 perfect additions in free agency. Moncada should be affordable, but kim is probably out of the price range. If Bruce did want to behave like a major league owner though, both of those guys are exactly what we need. And both have pretty high ceilings.

[lou]

Adam oller was outrighted off the 40 man and is expected to sign in Japan or Korea. Which means he was passed on waivers by every single team in baseball. Another great smug take by Lou on him “Not sure if the Rockies would take him, but wouldn't get past the Angels or White Sox.”

Haven't looked at baseball in a few weeks and see it is business as usual. I am surprised with the move, but unlike others, I can admit when I'm wrong. Looks like a miss. He has interesting analytics and an out pitch so my guess is team's don't like that he is OOO and would prefer him on a MiLB deal. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes to Japan or Korea for a successful 1-2 year stint but who knows.



I think I tracked all the moves, and this is where they landed for me:

Oller —> Fine if they prefer Arias as the new add for a guy with options who can theoretically throw a few innings. This is likely movability to me as Tinoco and Baumann are both OOO

Maldonado —> Swapped for Roa effectively on that waiver claim. Fine for slider guys with options if they prefer him. This one is a push.

McMillon - This is a miss and I hate he is going to the Phillies in particular. They are keeping Bachar, Curry, and Soriano over him which makes really no sense for pure upside (also - Pereda, Bride, Brujan, Connie, and Hill). Literally 8+ guys should have been DFA’d before him. This might be health related and they don’t think his arm holds up. We shall see but this one could hurt if he holds up.

Simpson - Same as above. They need lefties and Bachar, Curry, and Soriano, and all of those bats, aren’t exactly better via a depth chart. If injuries are a concern I too get it. Ultimately, this one isn’t a big deal as a 3rd/4th wild pen lefty is churnable and can be replaced. They talked a big game about him before 2024 as the next "Nardi" breakout so I am a little surprised they are moving on here so quickly.

Petersen - Was the first on the chopping block for me if they didn’t want to trade a more established guy (Cronin), so that’s fine. But, I’d have kept him over Bachar, Curry, or Soriano but this is literally the last 40 man spot for an arm to me so not a big deal as the team's 4th minor league reliever.

Munoz - Don’t care, was always gonna be a DFA. A little surprised the Cardinals claimed him though. He does have an option for them FWIW.

Sixto - Don’t care, was always gonna be a DFA


Big picture, I was expecting them to protect 21 pitchers and do it all internally, and that pretty much happened besides the Maldonado/Roa swap. I’d have just kept Oller, McMillon, Simpson, and Petersen, over Bachar, Curry, Soriano, and Arias. Ultimately, McMillon is the only one that stings. I hope they are right about Curry (who I liked 3 years ago but has kind of sputtered) and I genuinely don’t know much about Arias but would trust them as they seem to have a good pitching strategy.


Current situation:

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Weathers, Max (Bellozo, Arias, Mazur, Curry)

Faucher, Bender, Cronin, Tinoco, Baumann (Roa, Soriano, Bachar)

Nardi, Veneziano

IL - Eury


This is a 16-5 right hander imbalance, and yea Snelling is coming on top of this, they have Fulton but he is exposed so that's interesting but his injuries likely help them there, and they do have Monteverde I guess. The next wave of moves is likely ditching two of Curry, Soriano, Roa, Arias, and Bachar and replacing with 2 lefties with options. I think this is pretty good besides the last 2-3 spots but they can churn. A veteran lefty would make sense her for the bullpen who doubles as a trade in July if (when) they suck again.

And if they trade a SP for bat, they can add a 1 year FA # 4 innings eater spot wise.

And if they don't trade a SP, I think there needs to be serious consideration of making Max the closer (and he can be a 2 inning guy to get to 90 innings on the year over 50+ appearances rather than 65 one inning spurts, etc.) and trade Cronin or Tinoco for a comparable lefty to balance out the pen (those 3 are all slider guys and you don't need 3 right handed slider guys when you have more slider guys in AAA). I really don't love what Max showed as a starter and can see no long term path for him with Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett/Weathers, and Snelling in front of him (and White and Noble screaming upwards), so it might be smart to just do it. Practically, I won't argue if this is better timing wise when Eury is back just to see if he clicks first 3 months of the year, but at some level, you can also just do it.

[lou]

Will Banfield elected free agency. they didnt add him to the 40 man. not sure why when they can just get rid of Pereda and add him. Not sure why you would let him go. Even if they end up having to DFA him later in the offseason, losing him while keeping pereda on the 40 man is pretty dumb.

I will third this that in a vacuum the defensive potential of Banfield seems like the obvious move over a hitter type (theoretically) like Pereda.

I don't get this one even if you're starting to get really locked into a Mack and Ramirez future with what they did

[lou]

MLBTR did their annual top 50 free agents and predictions list….

we have a very busy offseason in store….

1 vote each (of 4 per player) for:
-catcher Kyle Higashioka at 2/$15M
-CF Harrison Bader at 1/$8M

TBH this would be two very good short term moves

[lou]

i still think Ha-Seong Kim and Yoan moncada would be the 2 perfect additions in free agency. Moncada should be affordable, but kim is probably out of the price range. If Bruce did want to behave like a major league owner though, both of those guys are exactly what we need. And both have pretty high ceilings.

Yes you are right (and I've been saying both of them since June).


Kim getting hurt and potentially devaluing a deal for him would be helpful for Bruce. I think he might prefer one of those "I can enter free agency again" deals ala Bellinger or Chapman or Snell where it's say 3/$45-60m, with opt outs after every year. He would have projected to a 5/$100-125m deal if he played like 2022-2023 again and was healthy. Some future guarantees, ability to get into FA, and playing SS not 2B (i.e. more $$$ in free agency theoretically) all would line up. You imagine the Asian guys wanting to stay on the west coast, but Miami is nice for a rich person.

Marlins need to do something at SS here. I'd plunge into this quickly.



And to combine with the post above, if they signed say..... Kim, Higashioka, and Bader for combined $30m in 2025.... if you traded Luzardo for the 3B and didn't sign Luzardo, this is about $85m:

C - Higashioka, Fortes (Ramirez)
1B - Burger, Bride (DDLS/Ramirez)
2B - Edwards, Otto
SS - Kim
3B - "Dude for Luzardo"
LF - Norby, Dane/Stowers (Marsee)
CF - Bader, Sanoja/Dane (Mesa Jr./Pintar)
RF - Sanchez

SP - Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, Max (Eury midseason, maybe Snelling too)
RHP - Faucher, Bender, Cronin, Tinoco, Baumann, Roa
LHP - Nardi, Veneziano


The key number here is $85m because if you can option Roa and "backup OF" to AAA and sign a # 4 veteran innings eater and a backup OF type, you are probably sub $100m in the $90-95m range and I frankly have no notes for that team above except churn out Tinoco or Cronin for a 3rd lefty reliever


There are quite a bit of moving parts here, but if MLBTR thinks those 2 are options and they can give Kim a flexible deal, there is a world this looks pretty good on paper with sending Luzardo to say, the Cardinals for Nolan Gorman in a package.

[fish16]

i really dont think they deal any of the SP this offseason now. Too many injuries last year to really count on anyone, so i think they hoard them all, see what pans out in the beginning of the year, and then make supplemental moves from there at the deadline. Luzardo is the obvious choice, but i think he would be more valuable to us in the first half next year and then potentially in a trade at the deadline than trading him right now off an injury ruined season.

Kim and at the very least moncada would be a good step.

[lou]

i really dont think they deal any of the SP this offseason now. Too many injuries last year to really count on anyone, so i think they hoard them all, see what pans out in the beginning of the year, and then make supplemental moves from there at the deadline. Luzardo is the obvious choice, but i think he would be more valuable to us in the first half next year and then potentially in a trade at the deadline than trading him right now off an injury ruined season.

Kim and at the very least moncada would be a good step.

I agree with you.

I can't see Kim happening, but Moncada I can absolutely see happening.


This could be say.... $81-83m give or take using MLBTR free agents and depending on some final Moncada/tender numbers


C - Higashioka, Fortes (Ramirez)
1B - Burger, Bride (DDLS/Ramirez)
2B - Edwards, Otto
SS - _________
3B - Moncada
LF - Norby, Dane/Stowers (Marsee)
CF - Bader, Sanoja/Dane (Mesa Jr./Pintar)
RF - Sanchez

SP - Sandy, Luzardo, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers, (Eury midseason, maybe Snelling too)
RHP - Max, Faucher, Bender, Cronin, Tinoco, Baumann
LHP - Nardi, Veneziano


I think that team is 10+ WAR away from being a mid/top contender so they'll need the Mike Trout version at SS to make this work.


The practical way to do that would be Kim and getting 22/23 level performance, spend on another 1 year OF upgrade for 400+ good platoon usage off the bench, sign the best lefty reliever in free agency as a shut down high leverage guy, and then pray to god 2 huge breakouts happen (Cabrera ace, Jesus Sanchez goes full .925+ OPS Joc against right handers, 45 HR from Burger, Norby .825+ OPS, Max goes full Mason Miller, etc.). And then no major injuries. That is probably a $110m team. Which seems insurmountable right now. And then even after all of that if that even happens, the Mets don't sign Soto, Snell, and 4 other prominent guys because Steve is completely drunk and doesn't care about any of these prices at all as he just got 4 years of mega tax breaks so spending galore.

It is a bad time to be a Marlins fan for contending hope absent some real big moves and we're just gonna be trending to Todd's vision of the Sandy/Luzardo trades in July to plug these holes and maybe they get the # 1 pick

[fish16]

bendix said today "We will be very much involved in the free agent market." What does that mean? Probably nothing.

[fish16]

i wouldnt be mad if they signed higashioka but that doesnt move the needle much at all to me. he's 35 next april and just had his first .700+ OPS season with real playing time. He is a career .255 OBP. he's got some pop but who knows if that plays here. Petco is a pitchers park obviously but that feels like his solid hitting season had a lot to do with being surrounded by Arraez, Machado, tatis, merrill, profar, bogaerts, and cronenworth, even though some of those guys had down years. He's a really good defender so that's nice, but i wouldnt spend much at all on him.

Harrison bader does nothing for me either. Guy's highest OPS the last 3 years is .672. He was also bad against lefties last year. Tyler O'neill would be the guy to sign for me. I wanted to acquire him last year off a down year in 2022. He's not a center fielder but he crushes lefties. A platoon of him and Sanchez in RF would give us really good production. Id guess they probably want some more minor league time for him, but i'd love to see Sanoja get an extended run in center.

[lou]

i wouldnt be mad if they signed higashioka but that doesnt move the needle much at all to me. he's 35 next april and just had his first .700+ OPS season with real playing time. He is a career .255 OBP. he's got some pop but who knows if that plays here. Petco is a pitchers park obviously but that feels like his solid hitting season had a lot to do with being surrounded by Arraez, Machado, tatis, merrill, profar, bogaerts, and cronenworth, even though some of those guys had down years. He's a really good defender so that's nice, but i wouldnt spend much at all on him.

Harrison bader does nothing for me either. Guy's highest OPS the last 3 years is .672. He was also bad against lefties last year. Tyler O'neill would be the guy to sign for me. I wanted to acquire him last year off a down year in 2022. He's not a center fielder but he crushes lefties. A platoon of him and Sanchez in RF would give us really good production. Id guess they probably want some more minor league time for him, but i'd love to see Sanoja get an extended run in center.

Higa is a solid dude. He has a 5.2 WAR his last 1,000 PA or so and yes a lot of it is defense as he was elite in 2022 and is a plus framer. He doesn't get cheated much at the plate with some sneaky pop. The 2/$15m is a little high for me too so I agree, but he'd be a solid upgrade and bridge to Ramirez who is looking to be summer 25 and Mack summer 26 with the way things are going. Fortes looked better in the 2nd half but cannot be trusted, so this sits up at minimum a bridge.

They also simply need a CF and Bader is defensively one of the best ones. We all agree they will win on pitching, so the defense will matter here as they'll need to win MANY 3-2 games like in 2023. I don't think this would preclude another OF move as they'd have Norby (he's gonna have to move), Bader, and Sanchez as the base OF, and they'll need another right hander for Sanchez (Dane or upgrade) and left hander for Norby/Bader (Stowers or upgrade). They can get another one to upgrade Dane or Stowers if budget permits.

O'Neil is going to get a Garcia/Soler-esque contact ($40-55m) pretty quickly. This is a pass for me with 3 cheap Sanchez years, Norby is destined for LF, and they have some dudes coming with Marsee, Sanoja, Mesa Jr., maybe Martorella or Berry makes it, etc. Pintar had a nice AFL sort of. There is also the potential a fast moving college OF is drafted and up by 2026 ala Langford level quickness. O'Neill would be fun in a corner, but not at that this price for me when they really need a CF short and longterm and there are some options. That money needs to go to SS and 3B first IMO, and then a bridge catcher and maybe lefty reliever is more important on top of another corner OF. Or a SP if they trade one screams to the top. In a world where this is budget, yes, but he can't be the most important add. I guess they could trade Norby but then they'd be playing musical chairs.


I can get behind Higa, Bader, Moncada, lefty reliever, and a Dane Myers upgrade (Dane has an option he'd be in AAA) free agent offseason. They can probably do that around $90m and they'd have the chance with Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, and Weathers/Max opening day with a top 10 returning bullpen. SS would be Otto and Serna mostly, with some Edwards (or maybe that circus continues) and Sanoja, more than likely so that football is punted to hell, but that sounds like a Marlins thing to do and SS becomes a deadline problem if the pitching holds up and they are in it. I know I get yelled at, but Otto at SS against right handed pitching could be interesting in a Berti range kind of way. I mean, this team will look comical against the Mets, Braves, and Phillies, but genuinely the pitching could be a thing quickly.

[Todd]

First offer for Adames reportedly around $23 million aav from Mets.