What is the Appropriate Amount of Time for Marlins Fans to Vent?

[Erick]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSL3fxsIuNo

I see some flaws there.
Good thing we have Tino now instead of Eduardo to fix them.

[nny]

I don't think anyone really was. It was just nitpicking.

I just mostly think it's weird to look at a guy and say "this is it" when he's 23 and doesn't have an exceedingly long minor-league track record to base it off.
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Hugg's triple-slash line seems about right for me.

I didn't say "this is it"

I said "this is likely"

Do you disagree with is being likely?

As far as that slash line goes, in order to do it:

.330 BABIP:16.2% K Rate
.320 BABIP:13.8% k rate
.310 BABIP:11.2% K rate
.300 BABIP:8.6% K rate

Compared to MILB career average of .315 BABIP and 16.1% K rate, both of which likely to go down from tougher competition.

[Mainge]

BABIP in the minors is something that gets thrown out all the time with no context. They don't just translate normally.

BABIP over .350 by level (2011):
MLB: 18 of 265 (6.79%)
AAA: 54 of 225 (24%)
AA: 44 of 235 (18.72%)
Hi-A: 41 of 234 (17.52%)
Low-A: 42 of 242 (17.36%)
SS-A: 39 of 129 (30.23%)
RK: 108 of 268 (40.30%)
Minors total: 236 of 1245 (18.96%)

source: http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/02/...usings-part-2/
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an "average" babip in the minors is something like 25-30 points higher than in the majors

I don't think this helps your argument. I think it hurts it. That's saying it's easier to hit for higher BABIP's in the minor leagues, therefore his. Higher BABIP number is less likely to be repeated as he gets older.

[Omar]

Revenue has increased and will continue to increase. Attendance saw the largest attendance increase in MLB. The team is collecting suite, club, parking, and concession money for the first time since the late 90s. The team, for the first time, controls the building and collects a portion of the revenue from concerts, soccer games, festivals, and any other event you can think of hosting at the stadium. Starting in 2014 national TV money will double for every team.

Did attendance disappoint? Yes. Was it sustainable to have payroll near $100 million going into 2013 after a last place finish? No. (2014 is another story. $110 million payrolls are going to be the norm fairly soon.) Did it warrant dropping payroll down to $30 million? Absolutely not.
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I will also say, that had they cleaned house in the front office, brought in some rising star from another organization and then had a firesale, it would have been hard to stomach but that would have made some sense.

They basically set themselves up to repeat the last decade minus Dave Dombrowski's pieces to play with and deal away for Hanleys and Anibals.

Also, attendance would have been a lot better if they had done a better job on the marketing and planning side of things. They botched nearly every aspect of their rebrand and didn't capitalize fully on their opportunity.

The other issue is that the organization's philosophy seems to be that current payroll has to not only reflect current revenue projections; it also has to cover previous losses. Essentially, they never accept any of the financial responsibility for their bad decisions. Either next years fans foot the bill or they cut costs. That is an awful medium to long term business model.

Thumbs up on the rebrand comment.

What we had heard originally was that the rebrand was going to be this county-wide event leading up to the event. None of this occurred minus some stories on the local news.

The rebrand itself was an opportunity missed and as time passes the defects in the design will become more apparent. This is something I will address in a future thread. It's going to look dated very quickly compared to others. The Denver Broncos, Anaheim Duck (current), and a lot of the NBA looks from the 90s are great examples of this. A great rebrand becomes timeless aside from a few modern alterations. (Current Blue Jays) The redesign was not universally well received like it should have been.

It's going to be very interesting next year when the bandwagoners are busy following the Heat and 4,000 die hards show up how many are wearing the new colors. To me, the new look and colors have come to represent this ownership and I won't be buying any of it in the future.

Quoting these posts, because I think this is the more important part of the conversation.

I don't care about the trade from a short-term, on the field perspective. If I'm being completely honest, I'd reveal that I haven't looked at the return at all because it's not relevant. The problems here are all long-term business problems that have a very limited amount to do with the product on the field.

[Mainge]

Isn't speed far more important than power in terms of .BABIP projection? I'm sure you're much more informed about this but power that leads to balls going over the fence have nothing to do with .BABIP, for example.

From stuff I've read in the past, hitters who hit it on the ground more tend to have higher .BABIP's. Obviously having more speed helps. Hitting line drives and not hitting infield flies is important hence the reason why I put those #'s.

I just checked the 2012 .ISO leaders and some have high .BABIP's while others don't. There seems to be little to no relation between the two but I'm sure I'm very wrong about this and you're going to show me why.

His point makes sense logically. The harder the ball is hit, the harder it is to field it. A line drive from JP isn't the same thing as a line drive from Stanton.

Those guys might all have similar power, but I'm guessing they don't have similar line drive rates hence different BABIP's.

I'd be interested in seeing if there's a correlation between ISO and BABIP on GB's/LD's.

[lou]

I don't think anyone expects anything from Hechavarria, even the front office. It's all just press BS.

I think they will move Stanton for all SP (not that I agree with this, just saying), and move forward with literally 12 good young projectable SP and see which 5 are the best to move forward with. OF is likely set with Yelich, Marisnick, Ozuna, and Ruggiano, and then they can devote 100% of free agency dollars in 2015 to buying an infield. If Morrison, Cox, Brantly, Realmuto, Hechavarria, Solano, Jensen, etc., work out in any capacity, bonus.

[Mainge]

The problems here are all long-term business problems that have a very limited amount to do with the product on the field.

This is pretty much how the "Apologist Loria Lover" crowd feels.

[Erick]

His point makes sense logically. The harder the ball is hit, the harder it is to field it. A line drive from JP isn't the same thing as a line drive from Stanton.

Those guys might all have similar power, but I'm guessing they don't have similar line drive rates hence different BABIP's.

I'd be interested in seeing if there's a correlation between ISO and BABIP on GB's/LD's.

There seems to be.
But that's why I brought it up because I don't feel like that necessarily has to do with the power, itself, but rather how you're hitting the ball (line drive/GB hitters higher .BABIP's, FB/IFFB's lower .BABIP's regardless of overall power).

Edit: Although your Stanton comment certainly makes sense.

[Bobbob1313]

Power hitters hit the ball harder, though.

[Mainge]

There seems to be.
But that's why I brought it up because I don't feel like that necessarily has to do with the power, itself, but rather how you're hitting the ball (line drive/GB hitters higher .BABIP's, FB/IFFB's lower .BABIP's regardless of overall power).

Edit: Although your Stanton comment certainly makes sense.

I think you misunderstood me. I'm looking for a correlation between power and BABIP on ground balls and line drives only.

Not a correlation between GB/LD rates and BABIP.

[HUGG]

http://www.purplerow.com/2012/4/26/2...whole-lot-more

*head explodes*

[nny]

I don't know if anything has changed in the past few years, but before this was generally the best BABIP predictor (Though not perfect):

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fa...ip-calculator/

Lots of things go into it. For instance, you can be Ichiro/Bourn/Bonifacio and be so fast and hit so many groundballs you can have a high BABIP. Or you can be Joey Votto and hit the ball so fucking hard that it lands before anyone can get to it.

[HUGG]

xBABIP =0.391597252 + (LD% x 0.287709436 ) + ((GB% - (GB% * IFH%) ) x -0.151969035 ) + ((FB% - (FB% x HR/FB%) - (FB% x IFFB%)) x -0.187532776) + ((IFFB% * FB%) x -0.834512464) + ((IFH% * GB%) x 0.4997192 )

you'd probably enjoy this nny: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...bip-calculator

[Mainge]

Hugg, do you know what I'm saying re: high BABIP in the minors?

[HUGG]

Yes.