Giancarlo: "I Do Not Like This at All”

[oakelmpine]

The index of the site gives definitions to what all the #'s mean so I suggest to start there if you plan on reading the site, oakelmpine.

Thanks Erick & Ramp I will try that site out.

[Mainge]

baby steps... he can't just go right into fangraphs, his head would explode

This.

Oak, Moneyball is a nice introductory course that doubles as an entertaining baseball book. Definitely think you should start with the book.
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The index of the site gives definitions to what all the #'s mean so I suggest to start there if you plan on reading the site, oakelmpine.

I think he'd be better off starting with the book. All of those definitions and formulas are just numbers without context. The book provides you with the necessary background to start with and build from.

[Namaste]

It's not that bleak. This year is going to be rough, but they have a loaded farm system right now and will take a big step in 2014 and beyond.

You have an an abundance of confidence in the front office.

What makes you think this FO is capable of parlaying a loaded farm system into a team that will make a run at the playoffs? *A "big step" would be a team that is within striking distance of the WC in September.

Larry Beinfest makes major baseball decisions based on stats like batting average and he works for a man who's made it abundantly clear (by his actions) that he is in over his head financially being the owner of a major league ball club.

The future is so bright I need polarized lenses.

[Ramp]

I don't have confidence in Miami's front office, but I do have confidence in their minor league coordinators and coaches.

I'm also not suggesting the Marlins will be world-beaters in 2-3 years, but I think by then they will be just a few pieces away and with no money on the books, they could be primed to make a run ala the Nationals.

Again, not suggesting they are the Nationals, but if they choose to start spending money again, I think they will have a nice core group of players to surround them with.

[nny]

We had the #2 farm system just a couple of years ago.

It didn't amount to much. We've had so many top prospects burn that I do actually worry about how we run our minor league system. And several that did came from other teams.

[Ramp]

What year are we speaking about (when we were #2)? I'd like to go back and see who was on those lists.

[lou]

We had the #2 farm system just a couple of years ago.

It didn't amount to much. We've had so many top prospects burn that I do actually worry about how we run our minor league system. And several that did came from other teams.

They were rated pretty high in 2010 which is the year I think you mean.

Stanton, Morrison, Dominguez, James, Tucker, Gaby, Skipworth, Cousins, Petersen, Smolinski, Marinez, Hand, Leroux, and way down the list Ozuna, Caminero, Ramos, and Olmos important wild card notables. There was also Maybin, Miller, Volstad, and Coghlan all on the team as non-qualifiers and big prospects a year before.

If we're comparing that lot to 2012

Fernandez = Stanton, maybe you give it to Stanton (as a prospect) as a position player, but this is close rankings wise

Morrison = Yelich, call it a push, but Yelich is probably slightly higher rated for athletic ability.

Marisnick = Dominguez, sounds about right. Volatile tough position player to project but upside undeniable

James = Nicolino. Similar upside potential at the time, we'll call it a push still.

Gaby = Brantly, projected average starting player at position. Push

Stanton, Morrison, Eovaldi, Cishek, Alvarez - Maybin, Miller, Volstad, Coghlan, I'm going with team Stanton here among no qualifiers not using hindsight bias. Stanton is just that good.

Then it becomes a blow out.

There is no Heaney whatsoever. Ozuna, Realmuto, and Cox all kill (in prospect speak) Cousins, Petersen, and Smolinski those years. The secondary arms (Urena, Conley, Dayton, Brice, Hope) are all a better crop than Tucker, Marinez, Hand, and Leroux. And then further down the current list is Hecvhavarria, Solarzano, and Romero as big boom or bust up the middle prospects, which were non-existant in the 2010 farm.

This years farm matches the top end, both in minors and recent graduations pre-arbitration, and depth wise has at least 5-10 better guys top to bottom. And doesn't include Turner who barely didn't qualify with .83 days. He's there too.

Say what we will about the dump and how its completely insane 2nd year in park, this is the most they've ever had with young talent and 2015 should be nice if 2/3rds these guys work out. They will have PLENTY of payroll if they are serious about winning to fix whatever the top 5 holes on the team are. That's the issue. Will they spend when these guys are ready?

[Beef]

You have an an abundance of confidence in the front office.

What makes you think this FO is capable of parlaying a loaded farm system into a team that will make a run at the playoffs? *A "big step" would be a team that is within striking distance of the WC in September.

Larry Beinfest makes major baseball decisions based on stats like batting average and he works for a man who's made it abundantly clear (by his actions) that he is in over his head financially being the owner of a major league ball club.

The future is so bright I need polarized lenses.

If the system is loaded and some of the players work out, you can bet these carpetbaggers aren't trading them until they get expensive, so it would be parlayed into a team that can make a run in that sense. If the players that are highly rated work out, they'll be good AND cheap. We know prospects don't always work out. So when some of them don't we can go from calling it loaded to saying we knew it was the worst system ever.

[nny]

2009, behind the rangers

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...09/267865.html

Our top 10 from ba that year: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...09/267349.html

1. Cameron Maybin, of
2. Mike Stanton, of
3. Logan Morrison, 1b
4. Sean West, lhp
5. Ryan Tucker, rhp
6. Matt Dominguez, 3b
7. Kyle Skipworth, c
8. Gaby Sanchez, 1b/3b
9. Chris Coghlan, 2b
10. Jose Ceda, rhp

Those forward are insider only; http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...lent-rankings/

[Miamarlin21]

Cameron had one good year and maybe can turn it around, same with Logan, but other than that, Stanton is the only surefire guy as of right now. The rest have fizzled out big time.

[Anonymous]

Some didn't even fizzle out in the majors. They just regressed in the minor leagues.

[lou]

Jim Bowden on ESPN musing about "moves to be made"

1. Texas Rangers-Miami Marlins trade
Rangers give up: Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt and Martin Perez
Acquire: Giancarlo Stanton and Ricky Nolasco

The Rangers need to find a way to replace the 70 home runs they lost when both Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli left via free agency. The Rangers have tried to acquire Justin Upton, but want to build the deal around Olt and Perez and have refused to include Profar in a deal for him. The Rangers' target list includes Stanton of the Marlins, Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies and Upton of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

However, I could see them parting with Profar in a deal for Stanton, as he is younger, cheaper and better than Upton. Additionally, the Rangers need another starter, and Nolasco would fit in nicely in the back end of their rotation while Stanton would provide the power in the cleanup spot lost when Hamilton departed to the Angels.

The Marlins would solve the left side of their infield for years to come and Perez would be a cheaper version of Nolasco for the rotation. Stanton desperately wants out of Miami but they could never trade him unless they were getting back a prospect at the level of a Profar.

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-...e/post?id=5662

I suspect another 2-3 lesser players would be involved, but shockingly sounds about right for Jim.

[Todd]

Does anyone think dealing Stanton would be where MLB draws the line?

[Ramp]

No, he's not making any money. MLB wouldn't care, especially if they got a good return for him (which he would most certainly bring in)

[lou]

If that happens, the internal depth chart for 2015 would be

C - Brantly/Realmuto
1B - Morrison/Yelich
2B - Dietrich/Hechavarria
SS - Profar/Hechavarria
3B - Olt/Dietrich/Cox
CF - Marisnick/Yelich/Ruggiano
OF - Yelich/Ozuna/Ruggiano/Silverio
SP - Fernandez/Perez/Turner/Nicolino/ Alvarez-Eovaldi
RP - Cishek/ Alvarez-Eovaldi /Webb/Ramos/Dunn/Conley/Dayton

Major Upper Minors Prospects - Heaney, Urena, Solarzano, Hope, Brice, Lowell, and a few more potential pen arms
Lower Minors - Romero, Copeland, 2013 draft and likely # 2 pick (Astros are probably worse still) 2014 draft

That is a $30 million roster in 2015. There is a lot of theoretical cash to replace the guys above who fail. Of course, will he ever spend it.
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Also, 14 players on that internal 25 man were not in the organization June 2012. Talk about clearing house.