2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Sure, but he will be a tougher sign. San Diego is a good landing place for him right now IMO, but sign me up. Michael Taylor is from Fort Lauderdale, I think if you're going to get a 1 year hometown discount, it's right there. CF defense + hits lefties, he too is perfect as discussed by all of us all offseason.


If they weren't assholes, they'd do this over 3 moves and this can't be more than $110m (i.e. last year)

JD Davis ----> DFA Garcia

Taylor/Pham -----> Option DLC to AAA (Edwards already in AAA). Or DFA Brujan and keep one of them.

Lorenzen/Clevinger ----> At full strength, this is optioning Soriano or Bender to AAA (or Sixto ends up a DFA as he is not cutting it), but with Cabrera/Garrett/Eury/Chargois all banged up, this is optioning Hoeing/Cronin/Munoz to AAA right now. Plus if Chargois is out 2-3 months with the back like you mentioned, this is just that spot. Frankly, I think there is plenty of room here for everyone. Pitchers 14-17 on the depth chart are going to throw 100-200 innings even with Lorenzen as everyone is always hurt.
(Or do a salary dump trade and get Patrick Corbin here for Garcia, Nasim rights, + a whatever FV40, same effective money move)


Fortes, Bethancourt
Burger, Bell
Arraez, Brujan
Anderson, Berti
Davis
Gordon
Jazz, Taylor/Pham
Sanchez

(AAA - Casali, Johnston, Edwards, Amaya, Gray, DLC, Mesa Jr., Myers, Mancini w/ Bride super utility.... which is kind of a good AAA lineup). Marlins bats 14+ on the roster last year after the main 13 got roughly 850 PA last year (closer to 1,000 PA in 2022). Nearly all of that can probably go to DLC and Edwards ultimately you know? And we are OK with those guys getting 400+ PA each as-is right now so Davis + Taylor create a massive floor production here?


Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers (140+ IP each)
Puk, Lorenzen/Clevinger/Corbin, Rogers (110+ IP each as bulk RP)
Scott, Nardi, Bender, Chargois, Sixto

(AAA - Max, Soriano, Hoeing, Yonny, Guitterez, McCaughan, Monteverde, Faucher, Cronin, Munoz, Simpson, Smeltzer, and Brazoban(?)... which is also kind of good as if we're anticipating 200+ injury innings, Max and Soriano are easily half of this and we'd be fine with them day # 1 on the team, and someone has gotta be alright from the rest of them for garbage innings. Someone is going to work out from Yonny/Guitterez/Hoeing in spurts/Monteverde/whoever).


The team still needs a major positional (offensive) upgrade at C, SS, or LF, but maybe you get 2022 Bethancourt (1.8 WAR), 2022 Anderson (2 WAR), and 2022 Gordon (1.6 WAR). That's a very quick 5+ WAR you know, and JD Davis has 2+ last year, M. Taylor 1.5+ last year, and you're going to get 1+ WAR out of an arm like Lorenzen/Clevinger/Corbin over 100+ innings. Serious floor raising here and sets them up IMO to survive until July 20th and seek an upgrade if need be.


This is so cheap and so obvious. Davis, Pham/Taylor, and Lorenzen/Clevinger. Just sitting there and gets Namaste to that 82 win W/L vegas projection he wants. Which gets them into a margin of error on 1 run bullpen luck again. I really hate Bruce Sherman.

i've never understood your fascination with michael taylor. he is a career 82 WRC+. Yes, he is a really good defender, but we need another impact bat. You say he hit's lefties, but it's not anything crazy special to make up for the fact that he sucks against righties. He is still sub .750 even against lefties. Jazz was good in center last year, we dont need a stellar defender, we need someone who can play all 3 OF spots and smash lefties.

For his career, Taylor has a sub .300 OBP, sub .400 slugging, .683 OPS., strikes out a ton (30% for his career), and doesnt walk (6.8% for his career). Go get pham and get a legit run producer.

[lou]

i've never understood your fascination with michael taylor. he is a career 82 WRC+. Yes, he is a really good defender, but we need another impact bat. You say he hit's lefties, but it's not anything crazy special to make up for the fact that he sucks against righties. He is still sub .750 even against lefties. Jazz was good in center last year, we dont need a stellar defender, we need someone who can play all 3 OF spots and smash lefties.

For his career, Taylor has a sub .300 OBP, sub .400 slugging, .683 OPS., strikes out a ton (30% for his career), and doesnt walk (6.8% for his career). Go get pham and get a legit run producer.

Because production is production and beggars can't be choosers. Taylor can play all 3 OF spots and hit lefties enough.

2021-2023

Pham 1650+ PA - 3.6 WAR, age 36 year old season in 2024. He's hit like .240/.320/.410 during this time (for real, it was better last year though). Pham hits lefties around a .750+ OPS during those years.

Taylor 1350+ PA - 5.3 WAR, age 33 year old season in 2024. He's hit like .240/.280/.380 during this time. Taylor's lefty split is closer to .775+ these years. Big power spike last year so he was clearly selling out for power which is fun TBH.


Taylor is better and younger, and yes a lot of that is defensive value, but you're playing him 60+ times against left handers, days off versus right handers for Gordon/Jazz/Sanchez who are frankly must plays against right handers, and late game defense. This is a 350+ PA role probably, but look at what Taylor did in similar time last year (1.7 WAR/388 PA). Unless they think his legs fall out defensively (as those guys due decline fast normally), he's going to be better than Pham. DLC is probably giving you what Pham is going to give you, although I would take either to increase the team floor as mentioned above as DLC is likely still getting 400 PA being the team's "14th" bat as someone is always hurt and they can move Berti/Brujan/Arraez/Burger/Gordon around the diamond to make space.


So that's why I like Taylor - he is likely a beneficial bench/platoon guy for a cheap team. He's fine. Pham is fine too. Duvall is fine too. JD Davis and Brandon Belt are fine too. All these guys are upgrades versus.... Avisail Garcia and create depth by sending DLC and/or Edwards and/or Brujan to AAA which is basically what is going on here.

Edit - and don't forget Rosario, Urshela, and all those other guys are fine too and all of them are better than Garcia and cost nothing but they are so cheap they won't improve the team with obvious moves that do not impact the bottom line as that is how cheap they are. Hopefully DLC and Brujan (Or Mancini???? Garcia??? Edwards??? Johnston??? Dane???) each have 1.5+ WAR seasons over 800-900 PA to spit in our faces here as the fan base, but who is taking that bet? Anyone?

[rmc523]

Sure, but he will be a tougher sign. San Diego is a good landing place for him right now IMO, but sign me up. Michael Taylor is from Fort Lauderdale, I think if you're going to get a 1 year hometown discount, it's right there. CF defense + hits lefties, he too is perfect as discussed by all of us all offseason.


If they weren't assholes, they'd do this over 3 moves and this can't be more than $110m (i.e. last year)

JD Davis ----> DFA Garcia

Taylor/Pham -----> Option DLC to AAA (Edwards already in AAA). Or DFA Brujan and keep one of them.

Lorenzen/Clevinger ----> At full strength, this is optioning Soriano or Bender to AAA (or Sixto ends up a DFA as he is not cutting it), but with Cabrera/Garrett/Eury/Chargois all banged up, this is optioning Hoeing/Cronin/Munoz to AAA right now. Plus if Chargois is out 2-3 months with the back like you mentioned, this is just that spot. Frankly, I think there is plenty of room here for everyone. Pitchers 14-17 on the depth chart are going to throw 100-200 innings even with Lorenzen as everyone is always hurt.
(Or do a salary dump trade and get Patrick Corbin here for Garcia, Nasim rights, + a whatever FV40, same effective money move)


Fortes, Bethancourt
Burger, Bell
Arraez, Brujan
Anderson, Berti
Davis
Gordon
Jazz, Taylor/Pham
Sanchez

(AAA - Casali, Johnston, Edwards, Amaya, Gray, DLC, Mesa Jr., Myers, Mancini w/ Bride super utility.... which is kind of a good AAA lineup). Marlins bats 14+ on the roster last year after the main 13 got roughly 850 PA last year (closer to 1,000 PA in 2022). Nearly all of that can probably go to DLC and Edwards ultimately you know? And we are OK with those guys getting 400+ PA each as-is right now so Davis + Taylor create a massive floor production here?


Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Weathers (140+ IP each)
Puk, Lorenzen/Clevinger/Corbin, Rogers (110+ IP each as bulk RP)
Scott, Nardi, Bender, Chargois, Sixto

(AAA - Max, Soriano, Hoeing, Yonny, Guitterez, McCaughan, Monteverde, Faucher, Cronin, Munoz, Simpson, Smeltzer, and Brazoban(?)... which is also kind of good as if we're anticipating 200+ injury innings, Max and Soriano are easily half of this and we'd be fine with them day # 1 on the team, and someone has gotta be alright from the rest of them for garbage innings. Someone is going to work out from Yonny/Guitterez/Hoeing in spurts/Monteverde/whoever).


The team still needs a major positional (offensive) upgrade at C, SS, or LF, but maybe you get 2022 Bethancourt (1.8 WAR), 2022 Anderson (2 WAR), and 2022 Gordon (1.6 WAR). That's a very quick 5+ WAR you know, and JD Davis has 2+ last year, M. Taylor 1.5+ last year, and you're going to get 1+ WAR out of an arm like Lorenzen/Clevinger/Corbin over 100+ innings. Serious floor raising here and sets them up IMO to survive until July 20th and seek an upgrade if need be.


This is so cheap and so obvious. Davis, Pham/Taylor, and Lorenzen/Clevinger. Just sitting there and gets Namaste to that 82 win W/L vegas projection he wants. Which gets them into a margin of error on 1 run bullpen luck again. I really hate Bruce Sherman.

Fun fact, I went to high school with Michael Taylor and Luke Jackson. They’re ere a grade below me

[fish16]

Because production is production and beggars can't be choosers. Taylor can play all 3 OF spots and hit lefties enough.

2021-2023

Pham 1650+ PA - 3.6 WAR, age 36 year old season in 2024. He's hit like .240/.320/.410 during this time (for real, it was better last year though). Pham hits lefties around a .750+ OPS during those years.

Taylor 1350+ PA - 5.3 WAR, age 33 year old season in 2024. He's hit like .240/.280/.380 during this time. Taylor's lefty split is closer to .775+ these years. Big power spike last year so he was clearly selling out for power which is fun TBH.


Taylor is better and younger, and yes a lot of that is defensive value, but you're playing him 60+ times against left handers, days off versus right handers for Gordon/Jazz/Sanchez who are frankly must plays against right handers, and late game defense. This is a 350+ PA role probably, but look at what Taylor did in similar time last year (1.7 WAR/388 PA). Unless they think his legs fall out defensively (as those guys due decline fast normally), he's going to be better than Pham. DLC is probably giving you what Pham is going to give you, although I would take either to increase the team floor as mentioned above as DLC is likely still getting 400 PA being the team's "14th" bat as someone is always hurt and they can move Berti/Brujan/Arraez/Burger/Gordon around the diamond to make space.


So that's why I like Taylor - he is likely a beneficial bench/platoon guy for a cheap team. He's fine. Pham is fine too. Duvall is fine too. JD Davis and Brandon Belt are fine too. All these guys are upgrades versus.... Avisail Garcia and create depth by sending DLC and/or Edwards and/or Brujan to AAA which is basically what is going on here.

Edit - and don't forget Rosario, Urshela, and all those other guys are fine too and all of them are better than Garcia and cost nothing but they are so cheap they won't improve the team with obvious moves that do not impact the bottom line as that is how cheap they are. Hopefully DLC and Brujan (Or Mancini???? Garcia??? Edwards??? Johnston??? Dane???) each have 1.5+ WAR seasons over 800-900 PA to spit in our faces here as the fan base, but who is taking that bet? Anyone?

none of those guys would hurt, and production is production, but we are talking about the improvement to the team from what these guys bring. Taylor is a good defender, but so is jazz in center. What Pham brings compared to what the current guys on the roster bring is much more of an improvement than what taylor brings compared to the guys on the roster. but we're on the same page, garcia needs to be gone and any one of these guys could help.

[lou]

none of those guys would hurt, and production is production, but we are talking about the improvement to the team from what these guys bring. Taylor is a good defender, but so is jazz in center. What Pham brings compared to what the current guys on the roster bring is much more of an improvement than what taylor brings compared to the guys on the roster. but we're on the same page, garcia needs to be gone and any one of these guys could help.

Sure. I'll take any of them. I think any collection of Davis + Pham/Taylor + Lorenzen/Clevinger adds 3-4 wins to this team, and might be more than that. Would cost less than last year's team signing all 3, and you can frankly give Davis and Lorenzen 2 years within reason.

It's ridiculous

[lou]

Tthe SP is taking shape:

Eury 3-4 day shut down. They are probably aiming him for the 5th SP slot (April 1) to buy as many days as possible. That's 3 weeks from now and not missing a start.

Braxton going to throw BP this weekend, so he'll be ramped up. Maybe the idea is an opening rotation of Luzardo, Rogers, Weathers, Puk/reliever day, and Eury, and then 2x through Garrett bumps Puk to the inevitable 3+ IP bulk reliever role he's destined for this year because innings limitations. That targets Garret for around April 6th missing just his first start. That is 3+ weeks from now so I mean, that's a lot of time TBH to ramp up.

And then Cabrera bumps Weathers or Rogers whenever he is ready. Maybe they give him 1 start also for that Weathers/Rogers start above, so he is then targeting April 2nd or really April 4th for his arrival. That's also close to 3 weeks away missing 1 start. This is a lot of time to ramp up. Or maybe it's two and it's April 10th.


So they could do this per game

Pittsburgh
-Luzardo
-Rogers
-Weathers
-Puk

Angels
-Eury (April 1)
-Luzardo
-Rogers

@STL
-Cabrera inserted, Weathers to 3+ bulk reliever, or Weathers just takes this one if Cabrera is not ready
OFF
-(April 6) Garrett inserted, Puk to 3+ bulk reliever
Eury


@ New York
-Luzardo
-Rogers + Weathers(full rest)
-Cabrera's arrival back for sure at this point I imagine (this is April 10th) + tie him too Puk

OFF

And we're at a full reset here on out and they can do this every 5 until something else happens. First series here is Atlanta so you got your best 3 lined up to maybe win 1.

Garrett
Eury + Weathers
Luzardo
Rogers
Cabrera + Puk



Just saying here, absent further problems, there is really minimum starting issues despite the injuries. They'll have Soriano and Hoeing 100% in the bullpen this entire time eating some innings here and there through the Yankees series to help lower inventory from presumably at least Puk and probably Rogers first few games.

So this seems like all good news coming out, but no more set backs please.

[Namaste]

Fun fact, I went to high school with Luke Jackson. They’re ere a grade below me

My son is on the Calvary Christian Academy Varsity baseball team.

[fish16]

obviously he is super young and has a ways to go, but after looking at thomas white pitch today, that kid just looks like a future stud pitcher. Super smooth delivery

[rmc523]

Pirates signed Michael Taylor for 1/$4M

[lou]

Pirates signed Michael Taylor for 1/$4M

These guys could have signed Rosario/Urshela for presumably $1.5m and Taylor for $4m, but they are going to give these 800-900 PA to Garcia, Edwards, Dane, Bride, Amaya, Mancini, and Casali instead. I sincerely hope half of them are going to Edwards and the rest Dane/Mancini as there is some hope there. Maybe they don't need to spend that $5.5, but even lower projections have those two as 2.2/2.3 WAR combos over 800+PA and the chances those Marlins guys do that is slim to none IMO.

Maybe a JD Davis surprise is coming. Or maybe Bruce Sherman just sucks. The Royals and Pirates are smoking the Marlins FO this offseason which says it all.

[lou]

obviously he is super young and has a ways to go, but after looking at thomas white pitch today, that kid just looks like a future stud pitcher. Super smooth delivery

Sure as hell hope so for the $4m they spent on him!

[lou]

JD to Oakland.

I cannot wait until Garcia is better than all of Rosario, Urshela, Taylor, Duvall, and JD Davis and I have egg on my face.

[Nick]

Can't compete with that Pirates and A's money.

[rmc523]

JD’s deal was 1/$2.5M with $1M in incentives

[fish16]

Glad we babied eury last year. Going to get his elbow checked out and we didn’t pitch him in the stretch run