2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Urshela goes to Detroit for 1 year at $1.5 million. I would’ve definitely taken him at that price, although I’m not sure he was really necessary given the amount of utility players on the roster. If they were really interested in him to play 3rd, I wonder if they would try to get Evan Longeria on a minor league deal given his Rays connection.

With players going off the board now on cheap 1 year deals, they really should be trying to replace Soler’s power with JD Martinez or Adam Duvall. Probably unlikely though since it seems like they are going to give Avi another shot.

Just crazy. Give them an extra $1m each to beat the Tampa/Detroit deals, and the Marlins are rolling this out for $100m

C Fortes, Bethancourt
1B Arraez, Bell(DH)
2B Rosario, Brujan
SS Anderson, Berti
3B Burger, Urshela
LF Gordon
RF Jazz
CF Sanchez (Garcia DFA)
(AAA - DLC, Edwards)

And that's where Berti turns into a RP which is a need, and then you just call up DLC or Edwards and the other is next man up in AAA. Or Brujan sucks and doesn't make the team and they are both up.

And if $110m is the target payroll, you can still sign Lorenzen to eat 130+ innings and got the innings you need via moving Berti for a RP too. He's better than IKF with the same control and half the price. He would get a good enough RP. Houston in particular would "love" him and they have bullpen arms beyond their big 3 IMO.




That being said, Duvall makes a ton of sense if they are allocating $$ in that direction instead. JD creates a too many DH situation again for me. Berti likely makes half of what Duvall would get, so if they move him, they could do this with recouping a RHP RP for Berti:

C Fortes, Bethancourt
1B Bell
2B Arraez, Gordon
SS Anderson
3B Burger, Brujan
LF Duvall, DLC
RF Jazz
CF Sanchez, Garcia

And Edwards can beat out Brujan or Garcia or DLC if he can, or is next man up for any non-catcher injury as these pieces can be shuffled. I like this too FWIW so I won't dive bomb them yet, but man Rosario and Urshela were CHEAP and their track record suggests they will be better. Seems like a miss.


TBH if they signed Duvall and Lorenzen next, and traded Berti for a controllable RHP RP, I think Namaste gets the last laugh of saying see, they actually did some stuff and that looks like a cohesive team. There is some suspect IF defense but it all else makes sense.

[fauowls44]

Honestly, having Anderson, Berti, Brujan, Edwards, Urshela, and Rosario on the same roster is overkill.

It’ll be interesting to see if they do anything else. I’d personally be surprised if they do anything more outside of players on minor league deals. I could be wrong, but I get the impression that they think they have enough at DH with some combination of Burger, Bell, Garcia, and Mancini. If they could find a way to dump Garcia, I could see them going after another bat, but I can’t imagine that someone would trade for him or that they would eat the money (at least not yet).

[lou]

Honestly, having Anderson, Berti, Brujan, Edwards, Urshela, and Rosario on the same roster is overkill.

It’ll be interesting to see if they do anything else. I’d personally be surprised if they do anything more outside of players on minor league deals. I could be wrong, but I get the impression that they think they have enough at DH with some combination of Burger, Bell, Garcia, and Mancini. If they could find a way to dump Garcia, I could see them going after another bat, but I can’t imagine that someone would trade for him or that they would eat the money (at least not yet).

I think the thing would be, 4 of those guys can play LF (Brujan is even listed as an OF on their 40 man), it creates a lot of SS/lineup options as how can anyone pick who will hit the most of that group, and there is big incentive in my view getting Bell to DH and Burger to 1B, etc. Doesn't matter at this point, but it would have created a maximum flexibility position core among spare parts, as well as Berti does become good RP trade bait. I think Fish16 is right on that one given the right personnel they can cash him in for an arm.


My continued favorite Garcia (2/$29m) dump is for Patrick Corbin (1/$34.5m). He was roughly a 4.50 era arm last year 1st and 2nd times through the lineup, and then self destructed 3rd time through (over 7 era). That's the kind of innings potential the Marlins need and would frankly be great. I would also love to add Harvey to that deal and blow them away by adding 2-3 prospects and not bad ones (even Fulton and the Comp pick). Harvey is a huge huge missing bullpen piece, and this isn't much new money for 200+ projectionable innings versus just DFA'ing Garcia. Nationals saving some money and getting some club control is probably worth it if the Marlins dish over something realistic. Would be super fun.

[Nick]

I really think Edwards is going to be a starting level major leaguer this year, I hope he gets playing time. I didn't hate the Nick Gordon trade, but I really think it indicates they don't like Edwards as much as I do, because the role I think he'll provide is one I think Edwards can do and can do better right now.

[fauowls44]

Brujan being listed as an OF and Gordon playing mainly LF so far in camp does make me wonder what they think of DLC and/or Sanchez. They kind of need both as a power threat, but they currently would have 6 OFs on the roster.

[Namaste]

How did Berti manage to have the same WAR in 2024 as 2023 but steal 25 fewer bases?

[fauowls44]

How did Berti manage to have the same WAR in 2024 as 2023 but steal 25 fewer bases?

He said earlier this spring he had a nagging injury last year that never fully healed until this offseason.

[lou]

Brujan being listed as an OF and Gordon playing mainly LF so far in camp does make me wonder what they think of DLC and/or Sanchez. They kind of need both as a power threat, but they currently would have 6 OFs on the roster.

I agree there. They both need to hit 20+ HR very badly if they are going to be a good team. Or Garcia does and one of them doesn't. Someone has to supply some bombs.

But big picture, I don't think it will matter for DLC's playing time if they think Gordon and Brujan get most of their time in the OF. With the way the roster is constructed right now, DLC is a floor 110+ start player in my eyes regardless of where he plays (unless Gordon or Brujan really explode and become every day 130-140 game starting players, or Garcia turns back the clock to 2017-2021, or Edwards is a revelation whenever he gets his shot, and two of those things may need to happen to really cut into DLC's time).

This says to me if Gordon/Brujan get worked hard in the OF that they plan on playing DLC as the primary DH as they value Bell better at 1B (and subsequently Arraez at 2B and Gordon/Brujan in LF/CF) than Arraez/Burger at 1B with Bell DH'ing, more Gordon/Brujan at 2B/3B, and DLC in LF, etc. It's basically a decision of whoever is worse of Bell or DLC in the field gets 90+ DH starts, and the rest of the team kind of filters out from there. Given we haven't heard much about Arraez moving to 1B which would be the obvious move if Bell DH's more (despite that likely being a good decision longterm if they keep him), I'd imagine something like this is the direction of playing time:

Projected Starts
C - Fortes (81) / Bethancourt (81), or whatever
1B - Bell (115) / Burger (25) / Arraez (22)
2B - Arraez (120) / Brujan (27) / Berti (15)
SS - Anderson (132) / Berti (30)
3B - Burger (82) / Berti (65) / Brujan (15)
LF - Gordon (110) / Garcia/Brujan/DLC (52)
CF - Jazz (110) / Brujan/DLC/Gordon (52)
RF - Sanchez (110) / Garcia/Brujan (52)
DH - DLC (90), Bell (25), Burger (25), Jazz (22)
(Edwards is playing every day in AAA)

The notes here are:
-Brujan is still going to be playing some not insignificant IF time as they've said they want to DH Burger a bit, and I imagine Bell will get some days off there too as any way to get him out of the field is good. Which is fine and if Brujan fails, Edwards just pops into that spot and the IF is reshuffled accordingly with him taking on more 2B
-I have Jazz at a few DH days to keep him upright and take some leg days off. Maybe I'm wrong here. But if I am, you just swap some Jazz/DLC days at OF/DH so it doesn't change the DLC playing time situation
-Gordon is a lefty so it's an all lefty primary OF which creates problems when facing a lefty of course. Hence, there may be some real strange Garcia/DLC/Brujan days in the OF with Jazz, Gordon, and Sanchez on the bench with the way things are right now, which seems nuts but it may happen. Which is the bold. They frankly need to sign Michael Taylor or whoever (Duvall maybe too) and pencil that player in for 100+ starts (at least half in CF against all lefties), and DFA Garcia. Or if Garcia looks great, you option DLC to AAA and reassess the DH situation. Taylor is perfect as a CF defender who can hit LHP and won't break the bank. Let Brujan, DLC, Garcia, and Edwards fight it out in spring training for the 2 last spots and it'll all fall into place. I imagine DLC and Brujan would prevail there as Garcia is probably cooked, Brujan is OOO and they traded for him for a reason, and they can play Edwards every day in AAA and see if they struck gold with Brujan for the time being.

So a typical long story very long, DLC and Sanchez are going to play a bunch regardless of what happens with Gordon and Brujan, and likely even if they bring in a much needed one more OF bat. And if DLC gets optioned, who cares. That would be a good thing as it would mean Garcia "is back" or some other great development.

[lou]

How did Berti manage to have the same WAR in 2024 as 2023 but steal 25 fewer bases?

His offensive slash was 85 OPS points higher in 2023 (huge), as well as got defensive bumps with more time at SS (harder defensive position). It offset the downright incredible base running he did in 2022.

[fauowls44]

Didn't see it mentioned here yet, but they signed Vladimir Gutierrez to a minor league deal yesterday. He started a bunch for the Reds a few years back before having TJ surgery and missed all of last year except for a handful of minor league innings. So while they haven't signed a big league starter, they have a few mildly interesting guys in camp in Yonny Chirinos and Gutierrez who both have big league starting experience and both are coming off of injuries. They also have Darren McCaughan on the 40 man who started 25 games for the Mariners AAA team last year. Nothing major, but decent depth acquisitions. Maybe one of them turns into something.

[lou]

They also made a good depth MILB depth signing - https://www.fangraphs.com/players/vl...ats?position=P

RHP arm that had upside in the past coming off major arm injuries. Some Reds fans seem a little annoyed he has cut loose as they thought he had potential. I imagine this is a FB/SL RP conversion coming quick, but a good speculative add.

They've had an interesting offseason to say the least of bringing in all sorts of interesting secondary arms (Faucher, McCaughan, Tyler, now Guiterrez, bringing back Smeltzer even). You can tell they are looking to find some 1-2 time through the lineup bulk reliever types as all of these guys would hypothetically fit that bill going max effort with their best pitch or two and getting kicked off the starting paths as they aren't good enough for that probably. This goes along with the stretch outs of Puk and Soriano already. It's the Rays philosophy. Throwing guys in waves and for more than an inning. Make a dozen of these dart throws and maybe you uncover a poor man's Yarbrough.

[lou]

Didn't see it mentioned here yet, but they signed Vladimir Gutierrez to a minor league deal yesterday. He started a bunch for the Reds a few years back before having TJ surgery and missed all of last year except for a handful of minor league innings. So while they haven't signed a big league starter, they have a few mildly interesting guys in camp in Yonny Chirinos and Gutierrez who both have big league starting experience and both are coming off of injuries. They also have Darren McCaughan on the 40 man who started 25 games for the Mariners AAA team last year. Nothing major, but decent depth acquisitions. Maybe one of them turns into something.

You beat me to the punch while typing the above. And I forgot about Chirinos on top of the other guys I mentioned.

But yes, they brought in guys with a lot of innings potential. I think we're going to see faster SP hooks third time through the order and the development of these bulk/bridge guys who can pitch 2+ innings to get the game to Scott and Nardi (and optimistically they get a good RHP reliever to join them).

[lou]

FG had a random Dax Fulton mention that he may miss all of 2024 (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/names-to...ant-prospects/). I was expecting him to get 2 months of minor league game action maybe, so that would be a bummer if he is out the year and misses close to 2 full seasons. He needs to be protected on the 40 next year which they will do, but with all this missed time, maybe he is at earliest a summer 2026 guy or even 2027 guy. He is real far out right now absent a miraculous recovery and probably should be viewed as debuting closer to Noble and White. Effectively, his value for this team is a trade chip of someone who isn't spooked by the medicals come July.

Guess we'll see, but I'd like some good prospect news one of these days. Hopefully Berry gets his shit together, or someone like Mesa Jr., Cappe, or Dane really break out into a longterm average or better starter. They really could use anything in house to get a good club controlled contributor for a few years.

[Nick]

Edwards needs to be on the opening day roster and needs to play. I’m going to die on that hill.

[fish16]

Edwards needs to be on the opening day roster and needs to play. I’m going to die on that hill.

Agreed. If it’s between him and an out of options Brujan who stinks, give me Edwards