2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[sports24/7]

i am thinking more and more that we are going to trade luzardo for an enormous package. The orioles make too much sense. That could net us an enormous package of hitting prospects that completely changes our long term lineup. It would put a pin in contending next year, but if we get what i think we could get from them, i think i would do it.

They arent going to give us holliday, but id go for Luzardo and Tanner scott for a ridiculous package of young bats like Mayo, Cowser/Kjerstad, Basallo, and Ortiz/Westburg. They pretty desperately need pitching and already have Rutchman, Gunner, Holliday and Ortiz/Westburg,

That would absolutely change the complexion of how this team is built, and as much as it sucks to lose luzardo, you still have plenty of high end pitching moving forward with Eury, Sandy, Garrett, both Meyers, Cabrera, and maybe Rogers still falls into that category. I think that is the type of move i could get behind even if it would suck for next years chances. But even so, i could see that working out as soon as next year and building to a monster for 2025. Mayo, Cowser, Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Westburg are all ML ready. I doubt we get 4 of those guys, but 3 of them change this franchise pretty quickly. Plus Basallo could finally fill the C position long term.

I think i would do it for Mayo, Basallo, and then our choice of Cower, Kjerstad, Ortiz, or Westburg, All of a sudden that leaves us with a longterm hitting core of Mayo, Basallo, 3rd piece, Jazz, Arraez, Burger, Sanchez, and maybe Edwards. It kind of resets the clock for our team in a lot of ways if we go and get 3 long term bats that are nowhere close to even arbitration let alone free agency,

If we are going to trade Luzardo, this offseason makes the most sense. First year of arbitration after an enormous year, and Sandy is out anyways so we arent winning anything next year. Capitalize on his enormous value and reset this roster finally. It's an incredibly Rays thing to do. We shall see.

Ken Rosenthal had a blurb about Miami potentially shopping Luzardo or Cabrera. He talks about how the Rays way has been to sell high on pitchers about to cash in. As much as I don’t love trading Luzardo, I’m constantly complaining about this franchises inability to sell high on players, so I guess I can’t be all that upset if they do. I’d prefer they trade Cabrera and extend Luzardo, but there is certainly some risk in doing that, and you’ll get a much better package out of Luzardo.

I also wonder if the return won’t be only MLB ready players. Mish mentioned the other day that he thinks they’re going to try and add a piece to the system and that Bendix is taking more of a longterm approach, which is half annoying, and half encouraging.

[fish16]

Ken Rosenthal had a blurb about Miami potentially shopping Luzardo or Cabrera. He talks about how the Rays way has been to sell high on pitchers about to cash in. As much as I don’t love trading Luzardo, I’m constantly complaining about this franchises inability to sell high on players, so I guess I can’t be all that upset if they do. I’d prefer they trade Cabrera and extend Luzardo, but there is certainly some risk in doing that, and you’ll get a much better package out of Luzardo.

I also wonder if the return won’t be only MLB ready players. Mish mentioned the other day that he thinks they’re going to try and add a piece to the system and that Bendix is taking more of a longterm approach, which is half annoying, and half encouraging.

I think im the opposite at this point in regards to Luzardo and Cabrera. I think you try to steal cabrera long term and sign him cheap if he would agree to it and move Luzardo for long term cost controlled pieces like the Orioles have. We have high end pitching outside of Luzardo and his value will never be higher in a trade, and we have holes all over the place long term offensively. I think you move him and Scott for an enormous package of bats we can have for cheap for 6 years and go with a future rotation including a horse in Sandy, a phenom in Eury, steady Garrett, a huge dark horse who i think is going to be really good in Cabrera, and then see who pans out out of Max Meyer, Noble Meyer, Fulton, Rogers, Weathers, eventually Thomas white down the road.

And you can always sign backend guys every offseason if we need more depth. I think Luzardo just makes too much sense to trade right now if you can get the enormous haul of cost controlled bats that i think we can get for him.

[lou]

i am thinking more and more that we are going to trade luzardo for an enormous package. The orioles make too much sense. That could net us an enormous package of hitting prospects that completely changes our long term lineup. It would put a pin in contending next year, but if we get what i think we could get from them, i think i would do it.

They arent going to give us holliday, but id go for Luzardo and Tanner scott for a ridiculous package of young bats like Mayo, Cowser/Kjerstad, Basallo, and Ortiz/Westburg. They pretty desperately need pitching and already have Rutchman, Gunner, Holliday and Ortiz/Westburg,

That would absolutely change the complexion of how this team is built, and as much as it sucks to lose luzardo, you still have plenty of high end pitching moving forward with Eury, Sandy, Garrett, both Meyers, Cabrera, and maybe Rogers still falls into that category. I think that is the type of move i could get behind even if it would suck for next years chances. But even so, i could see that working out as soon as next year and building to a monster for 2025. Mayo, Cowser, Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Westburg are all ML ready. I doubt we get 4 of those guys, but 3 of them change this franchise pretty quickly. Plus Basallo could finally fill the C position long term.

I think i would do it for Mayo, Basallo, and then our choice of Cower, Kjerstad, Ortiz, or Westburg, All of a sudden that leaves us with a longterm hitting core of Mayo, Basallo, 3rd piece, Jazz, Arraez, Burger, Sanchez, and maybe Edwards. It kind of resets the clock for our team in a lot of ways if we go and get 3 long term bats that are nowhere close to even arbitration let alone free agency,

If we are going to trade Luzardo, this offseason makes the most sense. First year of arbitration after an enormous year, and Sandy is out anyways so we arent winning anything next year. Capitalize on his enormous value and reset this roster finally. It's an incredibly Rays thing to do. We shall see.

Wow, remember when I got yelled at for suggesting if they aren't going to spend money, blowing up the team and moving some of the core arbitration players may make sense? lol.

I think there are paths to contending. They can trade something like NOBLE, Cappe, Amaya/Mesa Jr./Berry, Miller/Millbrandt/Monteverde, and throw-ins and get Adames, D. Williams, Houser, and T. Taylor. Easily with Noble and Cappe (they need infielders) involved. Brewers are in a 1 year full rebuild year and can shed all of that money with guys with 1, 2, 1, and 3 years of control for longer term assets. This saves them $35m, plus gets a top 5 SP prospect in baseball and excellent throw-ins. That $35m will get them a real good player in 2025, that's an excellent # 3/4 SP in free agency like how Jack Flaherty just signed a 1 year deal. If the Marlins then move Chargois and Okert which won't be difficult, and resign Adames longterm, you can get that team to $105m and it will be very good on paper. I'm not sure 2024 is dead. There are other creative scenarios too, like signing Montas and Lorenzen and then trading for other stuff. But they need to figure out how to make one of these moves and they have to not be scared to move something really good like Noble. As I've said many times, the club control on the MLB team is vast if they resign some guys to pre-fa buyouts ala Sandy, they can afford to move one of their few premium MiLB guys like Noble to help today and have 2-3 years to draft someone to replace him.



That being said, they would get a fortune from Baltimore doing that, and Berti is also perfect for them to supercharge them with Luzardo, Scott, Berti, and lets throw in Okert. Frankly, if they got immediate bats for that that are club controlled, team payroll would drop to roughly $74m, so if they are committed to spending $105m again, you can fit in Montas, Lorenzen, and Matt Moore into $105m easily and run out this in 2024.

Let's say it is Luzardo, Scott, Berti, and Okert for.... Mayo, Basallo, Ortiz, and Norby, And then did sign Montas, Lorenzen, and M. Moore and did nothing else.


Opening Day 2024

Bethancourt, Fortes (maybe Knizner in AAA)
Arraez, Bell
Edwards, Brujan
Ortiz, Amaya
Burger
Norby, DLC
Jazz
Sanchez

Eury, Cabrera, Montas, Garrett, Rogers, Lorenzen < - 6 man rotation
Puk, Weathers <-- Bulk
Nardi, Moore, Chargois, Brazoban, Maldonado

It's not exciting, but I don't think that offense is embarrassing and the pitching is going to be very good even without Luzardo. The key is the mid-season core reenforcements



July 2024 shifts to this when you can call up Mayo, Max, and Bender because service time reasons (which would still happen). Maybe Basallo is ready as a bonus. This could be a big time add of three top 100 prospects + a quality reliever as Bender was awesome before he got hurt.

Bethancourt, Fortes (maybe Basallo if he catapults)
Burger, Bell
Arraez, Edwards
Ortiz, Amaya
Mayo, Brujan
Norby (DLC optioned to AAA or whatever)
Jazz
Sanchez

Eury, Cabrera, Montas, Lorenzen, Garrett, Rogers < - 6 man rotation
Puk, Weathers Max < - Bulk
Nardi, Moore, Chargois, Brazoban, Bender



Then, and here's why you ultimately do it, opening Day 2025 shifts to this at $72 million dollars so they can spend $30-40m+ on presumably a 2B/SS/LF upgrade over whoever is worse of those 6 guys (note Norby can also play some 2B and Cappe is still here and could work out and push someone out organically) and bulk relievers/relievers. Basically, this team might look really good with the four Orioles bat infusion and if Eury and Cabrera blossom into what we expect and Rogers is just healthy. I would expect 350+ innings from the Puk, Max, and Weathers group to mention so they are effectively extremely high usage 1+ times through the lineup guys.

Basallo, Fortes
Arraez, Burger
Edwards, Brujan
Ortiz, Amaya
Mayo
Norby, DLC
Jazz
Sanchez
(AAA - Cappe, Berry, Mesa Jr., D. Myers, Banfield)

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers
Puk, Weathers, Max
Nardi, Bender, ____, ____, ____
(AAA - Fulton and slew of right handed relievers)




Anyways, I don't hate the idea if they were to spend on arms to replace as suggested. There are scenarios this can work for sure.

[lou]

I think im the opposite at this point in regards to Luzardo and Cabrera. I think you try to steal cabrera long term and sign him cheap if he would agree to it and move Luzardo for long term cost controlled pieces like the Orioles have. We have high end pitching outside of Luzardo and his value will never be higher in a trade, and we have holes all over the place long term offensively. I think you move him and Scott for an enormous package of bats we can have for cheap for 6 years and go with a future rotation including a horse in Sandy, a phenom in Eury, steady Garrett, a huge dark horse who i think is going to be really good in Cabrera, and then see who pans out out of Max Meyer, Noble Meyer, Fulton, Rogers, Weathers, eventually Thomas white down the road.

And you can always sign backend guys every offseason if we need more depth. I think Luzardo just makes too much sense to trade right now if you can get the enormous haul of cost controlled bats that i think we can get for him.

We've become full on Lee Stone lol. But just replying here I would bet on Cabrera too. If the team is aiming for three core right handers and three core left handers, I would go with Sandy, Eury, and Cabrera on one hand, and Luzardo, Rogers, and Puk (minimum bulk reliever) on the other. Garrett is an easy swap for Luzardo if a mega-package comes back which I think is an acceptable depth chart move, and Max and Weathers are good "next man up" guys to become starters or bulk relievers. They are going to operate like Tampa and bulk relievers isn't an insult for anyone reading. Those guys throw 100+ innings for them.


Anyways, I'd still rather trade for Brewers stuff and think they can afford Arraez, Luzardo, ADAMES, Jazz, and Eury extensions, but we'll see what they do.

[fish16]

We've become full on Lee Stone lol. But just replying here I would bet on Cabrera too. If the team is aiming for three core right handers and three core left handers, I would go with Sandy, Eury, and Cabrera on one hand, and Luzardo, Rogers, and Puk (minimum bulk reliever) on the other. Garrett is an easy swap for Luzardo if a mega-package comes back which I think is an acceptable depth chart move, and Max and Weathers are good "next man up" guys to become starters or bulk relievers. They are going to operate like Tampa and bulk relievers isn't an insult for anyone reading. Those guys throw 100+ innings for them.


Anyways, I'd still rather trade for Brewers stuff and think they can afford Arraez, Luzardo, ADAMES, Jazz, and Eury extensions, but we'll see what they do.

Trading Luzardo off of a 178 IP and 3.7 WAR Season with 3 years of team control left is nowhere close to trading Sandy off of a 5.8 WAR year with 228 IP and 5 years of team control left.

I lean towards luzardo because the value is as high as it will ever be, we desperately need long term bats because we have almost nothing in the pipeline whereas we have a number of high end arms in the system, and because i dont think there is a chance in hell they sign him long term.

We have the high end pitching depth to make this an incredibly balanced long term team for once with a luzardo trade, and that is without even thinking about the ability to sign a SP at some point if it's necessary. Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Max Meyer, Noble Meyer, Rogers, Weathers, Fulton. White, is way better depth than most teams in the league have. If we can get a 3 long term lineup pieces with 6 years of team control, i think we are better off in the long run trading luzardo and cashing in.

Obviously you cant look at it this way, but we would have traded Michael King into Cooper and smith, which eventually turned into Weathers and 3 high end long term lineup pieces with 6+ years of team control. It's a no brainer given Sandy's injury and the complete and utter failures of our player development system for our hitters. If Sandy was available this year that would be a whole different discussion, but it simply pushes the timeframe back a year, and i think we should now be doing everything possible to be building for 2025.

by 2025, you have a rotation with no innings limits of Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, eury, Max Meyer at the very least. We can withstand losing luzardo if we turn him into a shit ton of long term lineup talent to add to Arraez, Jazz, Burger, and sanchez.

[lou]

Trading Luzardo off of a 178 IP and 3.7 WAR Season with 3 years of team control left is nowhere close to trading Sandy off of a 5.8 WAR year with 228 IP and 5 years of team control left.

I lean towards luzardo because the value is as high as it will ever be, we desperately need long term bats because we have almost nothing in the pipeline whereas we have a number of high end arms in the system, and because i dont think there is a chance in hell they sign him long term.

We have the high end pitching depth to make this an incredibly balanced long term team for once with a luzardo trade, and that is without even thinking about the ability to sign a SP at some point if it's necessary. Sandy, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Max Meyer, Noble Meyer, Rogers, Weathers, Fulton. White, is way better depth than most teams in the league have. If we can get a 3 long term lineup pieces with 6 years of team control, i think we are better off in the long run trading luzardo and cashing in.

Obviously you cant look at it this way, but we would have traded Michael King into Cooper and smith, which eventually turned into Weathers and 3 high end long term lineup pieces with 6+ years of team control. It's a no brainer given Sandy's injury and the complete and utter failures of our player development system for our hitters. If Sandy was available this year that would be a whole different discussion, but it simply pushes the timeframe back a year, and i think we should now be doing everything possible to be building for 2025.

by 2025, you have a rotation with no innings limits of Sandy, Garrett, Cabrera, eury, Max Meyer at the very least. We can withstand losing luzardo if we turn him into a shit ton of long term lineup talent to add to Arraez, Jazz, Burger, and sanchez.

It's all about replacing the innings. You clear $15m bucks with Luzardo/Scott/Berti/Okert, so you can replace the innings quickly - Wacha and Lugo and Mahle and Flaherty and others are all signing deals for about that AAV so it's a straight 1-1 swap where you guys get a horde of players and immediately replace most innings.

I'm in if they do something like above for Mayo, Basallo, Ortiz, and Norby and then immediately sign 300+ FA innings for 2024. They'll have a fighting chance at the deadline which is a realistic goal for the 2024 squad IMO.

The Rangers, Yankees, and Dodgers all have offensive pieces to do something similar. Rushing, Busch, Pages, and something fills the same issues for the Marlins longterm, and you could *still* trade Noble and prospects for Adames, D. Williams and spare parts doing that to solve the SS issue.

Like if this was the longterm team and it's within budget, are we happy?

Rushing, Fortes
Arraez, Busch
Edwards, Brujan
Adames, Amaya
Burger
Pages
Jazz, Mesa Jr/Dane/DLC
Sanchez

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers, Max, Weathers
D. Williams, Nardi, Bender, and who cares


They could frankly *easily* do this but it would 100% cost Luzardo, Noble, Scott, and some parts we don't care about to make it happen.

A lot of risk here, but I why not sell high on Luzardo for many bats and also aggressively sell prospects for Adames at the same time, with using FA to plug some # 4 SP innings. They have the juice to this.

This is what I've been saying for awhile - radical moves are needed to get this team where it needs to be absent Bruce moving to $130-140m land for a few seasons.

[fish16]

Say it's Mayo, Ortiz, and Basallo for Luzardo +

By opening day 2025 you could have

C- Basallo
1b- Burger
2b- Arraez
SS- Ortiz
3b- Mayo
LF- Edwards?
CF- Jazz
RF- Sanchez/Platoon
DH- Re-sign Bell

SP- Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Max Meyer, with depth of Rogers, maybe Puk, Fulton, with Noble Meyer and Thomas white on the way.

You push back the clock of the window for contention with that move. And as opposed to our biggest holes currently being some of the toughest positions to fill, it becomes some of the easiest positions to fill in corner OF and DH. Then you sign Arraez long term and every single one of those guys is pretty much here for years to come, with a rotation that is here for years to come as well.

[fish16]

It's all about replacing the innings. You clear $15m bucks with Luzardo/Scott/Berti/Okert, so you can replace the innings quickly - Wacha and Lugo and Mahle and Flaherty and others are all signing deals for about that AAV so it's a straight 1-1 swap where you guys get a horde of players and immediately replace most innings.

I'm in if they do something like above for Mayo, Basallo, Ortiz, and Norby and then immediately sign 300+ FA innings for 2024. They'll have a fighting chance at the deadline which is a realistic goal for the 2024 squad IMO.

The Rangers, Yankees, and Dodgers all have offensive pieces to do something similar. Rushing, Busch, Pages, and something fills the same issues for the Marlins longterm, and you could *still* trade Noble and prospects for Adames, D. Williams and spare parts doing that to solve the SS issue.

Like if this was the longterm team and it's within budget, are we happy?

Rushing, Fortes
Arraez, Busch
Edwards, Brujan
Adames, Amaya
Burger
Pages
Jazz, Mesa Jr/Dane/DLC
Sanchez

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Rogers, Max, Weathers
D. Williams, Nardi, Bender, and who cares


They could frankly *easily* do this but it would 100% cost Luzardo, Noble, Scott, and some parts we don't care about to make it happen.

A lot of risk here, but I why not sell high on Luzardo for many bats and also aggressively sell prospects for Adames at the same time, with using FA to plug some # 4 SP innings. They have the juice to this.

This is what I've been saying for awhile - radical moves are needed to get this team where it needs to be absent Bruce moving to $130-140m land for a few seasons.

We aren't going to be trading for anyone that we would immediately have to sign to a 5 year 100 million extension. We just arent. This is going to be a rays type team moving forward where we hoard long term controlled cheap talent and sell high when it makes sense and hopefully start to sign guys early as well like eury. I dont think it makes sense whatsoever to trade luzardo for multiple pieces but then also go trade prospects for a SS we have to then sign to big money immediately.

Go all in one way or another, and i think the selling and building for 2025 and beyond is the direction to go all in for with Sandy out next year. We are desperate for long term position players that are cost controlled. Go deal your best piece, get 3 of them, and then start building out a cheap contender for years to come.

Mayo, Basallo, and Ortiz fill 3 GAPING holes in our lineup while not crippling the rotation for years to come. It's a no brainer if it's on the table. And id deal Scott in a heartbeat if that's what it takes to make it happen. that pairs Burger, Arraez, and Jazz with a mashing Stanton type power bat, a really nice hitting catcher, and finally gives us a long term SS that can also hit while not having to be paid for a long time. It makes this lineup infinitely more lethal not only long term, but right away as well.

And while they would obviously love to keep Mayo, Basallo and Ortiz are excess pieces that they really dont NEED with Rutschman behind the plate and Holliday/Gunner eventually at SS/ 2b

[lou]

We aren't going to be trading for anyone that we would immediately have to sign to a 5 year 100 million extension. We just arent. This is going to be a rays type team moving forward where we hoard long term controlled cheap talent and sell high when it makes sense. I dont think it makes sense whatsoever to trade luzardo for multiple pieces but then also go trade prospects for a SS we have to then sign to big money immediately.

Go all in one way or another, and i think the selling and building for 2025 and beyond is the direction to go all in for with Sandy out next year. We are desperate for long term position players that are cost controlled. Go deal your best piece, get 3 of them, and then start building out a cheap contender for years to come.

There are no longterm surefire SS available, that's the issue. Prospect wise, or free agency. Ortiz is probably a platoon guy if he makes it. Which could make sense if Amaya is good and they have upgraded pieces elsewhere, but just saying here. You need big big big upgrades elsewhere to just stick with a pedestrian SS plan. Of course, Mayo and Basallo (or Rushing and Busch, etc.) could be those big upgrades, and maybe Arraez starts slugging some more, Jazz, Burger, and Sanchez hit their slugging peaks too and combined hit over 100 HR, and Edwards does in fact get to a .350+ OBP with the hit tool and can handle himself defensively where he lands.

Scanning MLB, the realistically available longterm shortstops they could probably get are Adames and pay him for 7/$150+ or so (this is a Jayson Werth type move) and sadly, Brooks Lee who is expendable for Minnesota and should be who the Marlins drafted instead of Berry. Everyone else is a shift to 2B/3B kind of guy, or the team needs them for SS. You can sign me up getting Minnesota pitching for Brooks Lee. They too could be an interesting spot for Luzardo (or any SP) with Lee and Emmanual Rodriguez headlining that deal, and Minn. has a slew of other play now bats that could be useful now and later.

SS depth availability is just as bad as catcher availability basically. It's a no brainer to me to get Adames and make him the big splurge signing as there is not much out there absent Brooks Lee, or going with cheap prospects or Rosarios. Payroll is cheap, they can afford Adames in a world Luzardo (who would be very costly) if moved.

Frankly though, targeting Basallo, Rushing, or B. Lee I think is where one would start. If you're going to move Luzardo, you need the stud C or SS prospect in that package who is ready within 1 season.

[fish16]

There are no longterm surefire SS available, that's the issue. Prospect wise, or free agency. Ortiz is probably a platoon guy if he makes it. Which could make sense if Amaya is good and they have upgraded pieces elsewhere, but just saying here. You need big big big upgrades elsewhere to just stick with a pedestrian SS plan. Of course, Mayo and Basallo (or Rushing and Busch, etc.) could be those big upgrades, and maybe Arraez starts slugging some more, Jazz, Burger, and Sanchez hit their slugging peaks too and combined hit over 100 HR, and Edwards does in fact get to a .350+ OBP with the hit tool and can handle himself defensively where he lands.

Scanning MLB, the realistically available longterm shortstops they could probably get are Adames and pay him for 7/$150+ or so (this is a Jayson Werth type move) and sadly, Brooks Lee who is expendable for Minnesota and should be who the Marlins drafted instead of Berry. Everyone else is a shift to 2B/3B kind of guy, or the team needs them for SS. You can sign me up getting Minnesota pitching for Brooks Lee. They too could be an interesting spot for Luzardo (or any SP) with Lee and Emmanual Rodriguez headlining that deal, and Minn. has a slew of other play now bats that could be useful now and later.

SS depth availability is just as bad as catcher availability basically. It's a no brainer to me to get Adames and make him the big splurge signing as there is not much out there absent Brooks Lee, or going with cheap prospects or Rosarios. Payroll is cheap, they can afford Adames in a world Luzardo (who would be very costly) if moved.

Frankly though, targeting Basallo, Rushing, or B. Lee I think is where one would start. If you're going to move Luzardo, you need the stud C or SS prospect in that package who is ready within 1 season.

Ortiz is the 50th ranked prospect on mlb and the 62nd on BA in their last full 100 rankings. He is not a platoon guy. By all accounts he is a great defender with no questions about whether he will stay at SS. BA has him as a 55 hitter, 50 power, 60 fielder, and 55 arm. That's the type of guy we should be targeting, not a guy who you will then have to pay 100+ million who isnt a star coming off 2 pretty mediocre hitting seasons and is 28 years old. you build a team in this market through cheap, young, cost controlled talent. Ortiz is absolutely a potential long term SS.

[lou]

Ortiz is the 50th ranked prospect on mlb and the 62nd on BA in their last full 100 rankings. He is not a platoon guy. By all accounts he is a great defender with no questions about whether he will stay at SS. BA has him as a 55 hitter, 50 power, 60 fielder, and 55 arm. That's the type of guy we should be targeting, not a guy who you will then have to pay 100+ million who isnt a star coming off 2 pretty mediocre hitting seasons and is 28 years old. you build a team in this market through cheap, young, cost controlled talent. Ortiz is absolutely a potential long term SS.

I respectfully disagree on Ortiz being a lock prospect. Ortiz has a .380 BABIP in AAA over 500 PA, and he's a little guy (5'9) so pretty unlikely he holds any power as he moves up. Don't get very excited about that way overvalued pipeline and BA number. Maybe that's more about projecting him as a 2B though, where there aren't a lot of good 2B in baseball right now. MiLB lists him as a 2B and Fangraphs a 2B/3B so there is a question of how long he can stay at SS. Fangraphs direct quote is - ..... dialed down the grades on Orioles infield prospect Joey Ortiz's defense and arm by a full standard deviation. His diminutive size makes him especially agile, but he lacks any other exceptional defensive attributes. He'll probably be a SS for a few years before shifting to 2B as he matures if his hit tool makes it for him. TBH, that would be fine for Marlins purposes if he can do it for 3-4 years. I'd bet on him as I do like him (mainly the K/contact rate), but it's all relative when we're talking about trading Luzardo. Who is a star. Ortiz is not player 1 or 2 in a Luzardo deal for me. He'd be a great player 3 (even with throwing in Scott as you suggested) and likely sets up a SS platoon with Amaya (by all accounts, a superior defender so he would play a lot with him). As stated, they'd need major OOMPH elsewhere as this sets up a more "acceptable" longterm SS plan versus one that has star power like Brooks Lee who should hang at SS for a similar amount of time before likely growing into 3B. Ortiz isn't going to be a 2+ WAR player if he's hitting .250-260 even if he is overall useful is what I am saying. This is a probable platoon guy at SS, and more arguably a longterm 2B option. I do think Basallo and Mayo could be stars though so if they pulled off that heist, this isn't a bad plan. Let's not overvalue Ortiz though.

And in what world is a 4.6 WAR and 3.4 WAR (.259 BABIP, career .310) seasons "mediocre" for Adames. Arraez has 6.5 WAR the last two seasons for perspective here, and matched Adames at a 3.4 WAR last year. Adames is better than him. Sandy produced a 8.6 WAR (high IP) and Luzardo a 6 WAR (low IP) the last two years. Adames is in the Sandy/Luzardo tier of players in baseball. Adames is 43rd in baseball in WAR the last 3 seasons if we even splits this out further. Come on man. You can like Ortiz more than I do and claim the Marlins are cheap, but just back handing Adames as "pretty medicore" is nuts. He'd be amazing to have at whatever price given the lack of SS in this organization and availability league wide. On a big picture level, if the Marlins were to unload Luzardo/Scott for a club controlled bat horde of 3-4 major named guys, the team's future payroll would be an expensive Arraez, Jazz, and Sandy, and that's it for 4 years. After that, some guys like Eury will become more expensive once they get into later arb years, but then others like Sandy will fade off the payroll so that nets itself out. They can afford to radically fix a position anywhere on the field with a $22-25m a year player easily even at Bruce budgets with what they already have that is cheap. They will have to do this. They will have to spend money to win whether it is Adames or someone else. It's fine if you don't like Adames for whatever reason, but I think targeting a 28 year old high floor defensive top 10 production SS in baseball is a good idea with this pitching staff. I frankly love the idea of doing this.

Of course, you're very likely right this won't happen. Maybe the best idea is in fact going back to Minnesota and getting Brooks Lee as I think we all agree, he's likely a better hitter than all these names mentioned even if he grows into a 3B in a few years. That's fine for me if SS is solved for say.... 3 years and then 3B is solved. Worth it to send another major SP to Minnesota for Lee. He's a "player 1" in a Luzardo deal for me. Would love him.

[fish16]

i never said he is a lock, i said calling him a platoon player when most sites have him as a sure fire SS and a top 50-60 prospect in all of baseball is kind of silly.


Adames was almost entirely defensively driven war the last 2 years and he has been below average defensively in 3 of his 6 years in the league according to fangraphs so who knows how real that is moving forward, plus the fact that you would be paying for his 29-34 seasons at 20 million for a team that wont even go above 105 million for payroll. Adames is of course a really good player, but that type of contract for that type of player does not make sense for this team given the payroll constraints. go all in on cost controlled guys and then start signing guys early to make it as sustainable as possible. That's how you build this thing to be competitive annually. Eury should be the top priority to sign early to an 8-10 year deal right now. Then Cabrera and maybe garrett.

all things being equal obviously adames is the easy pick as ortiz hasnt proven anything yet, but given the price tags, to me it's a no brainer you trust your scouts and if they like ortiz you go get him and plug him at SS for the next 6 years. 20 million a year for adames is 20 million that you cant spend elsewhere.

[Namaste]

Adames is very versatile there’s no doubt about that. He’s both pretty mediocre and a really good player at the same time. That’s tough to do!

[fish16]

Adames is very versatile there’s no doubt about that. He’s both pretty mediocre and a really good player at the same time. That’s tough to do!

it's almost as if there is an offensive component and a defensive component to baseball! I said he was a good defensive player the last 2 years who has had 2 straight mediocre hitting seasons.

[lou]

i never said he is a lock, i said calling him a platoon player when most sites have him as a sure fire SS and a top 50-60 prospect in all of baseball is kind of silly.


Adames was almost entirely defensively driven war the last 2 years and he has been below average defensively in 3 of his 6 years in the league according to fangraphs so who knows how real that is moving forward, plus the fact that you would be paying for his 29-34 seasons at 20 million for a team that wont even go above 105 million for payroll. Adames is of course a really good player, but that type of contract for that type of player does not make sense for this team given the payroll constraints. go all in on cost controlled guys and then start signing guys early to make it as sustainable as possible. That's how you build this thing to be competitive annually. Eury should be the top priority to sign early to an 8-10 year deal right now. Then Cabrera and maybe garrett.

all things being equal obviously adames is the easy pick as ortiz hasnt proven anything yet, but given the price tags, to me it's a no brainer you trust your scouts and if they like ortiz you go get him and plug him at SS for the next 6 years. 20 million a year for adames is 20 million that you cant spend elsewhere.

But their payrolls are going to be in the $70s-80s for years with this core (the pitching is so cheap), so Adames doesn't change anything even fitting into $105-110m Bruce budgets. It wouldn't be an issue until 2027 when Eury gets real expensive and did Jazz get signed, and that's why they pay the front office - you have three years to figure out an excess payroll problem in year 4, and hey maybe you made the playoffs twice for extra revenue during that so its not a problem. Frankly, go all prospects in whatever moves and then sign someone BIG. Like Montgomery. I honestly don't care who, but they need to actually sign another stud ala Seager and Semien if this is ever going to work. Nimmo, Swanson, Adames, Montgomery, hell even maybe Chapman (good defender, probably a high floor) or Bellinger. There is always a name. They need a 3-4 WAR stud player infusion outside of prayer trades and hope they hit on everyone. This team has a real good foundation, but it still needs a lot. Especially sans Sandy for a year.

I'm with you on extensions though - I think Arraez, Luzardo, Eury, and Jazz are musts (Jazz near must). They can wait on Cabrera (and Rogers and Puk) a year. Garrett they never need to extend. He's a play through arbitration guy as a soft tosser.