2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

This is fine but isn’t a needle mover.

It’s not a stretch to say Bethancourt puts up a 1 WAR next year. So compared to 2023, it could be worth 2 wins. Agreed it’s no huge spike in RPM’s, but a Spanish speaking C with a big arm is a little bit of a needle mover.

Like Nick mentioned, get a legit SS, another bat and a legit vet arm and we are in business.

[sports24/7]

Fortes has options to mention. They can park him in AAA and Banfield AA and no one is impacted developmentally here IMO. I don’t think Garver makes sense with Betancourt also. They’d need a strong side starter with Garver and Betancourt is clearly a backup to me. I thought they were going to claim Betancourt when he was DFA’d but Cleveland sniped them. Makes sense since Cleveland opted for Hedges defense.

This is fine but isn’t a needle mover.

I’d be shocked if the plan is to move Fortes down. They’re often banking on the best case scenario, and because of that I’d bet the catcher they add isn’t a catcher they plan to start for the bulk of the season. That’s why I mentioned Garver. I’ll be happy to be wrong here, but that’s my bet.

[lou]

It’s not a stretch to say Bethancourt puts up a 1 WAR next year. So compared to 2023, it could be worth 2 wins. Agreed it’s no huge spike in RPM’s, but a Spanish speaking C with a big arm is a little bit of a needle mover.

Like Nick mentioned, get a legit SS, another bat and a legit vet arm and we are in business.

I mean sure. If we went into the offseason thinking they need 8-10 WAR or so in free agency/trades, this, Brujan, and some replacement level improvements (Gray, Faucher, Ort, Tyler, etc.) can probably just reset that to an aggressive "7" as of right now.

If they can get a SS, CF/bat, and SP upgrade and each of them is a 2+ WAR player, that should get them to the deadline absent devastating injuries (and feel free to throw in extra upgrades if they decide to improve on Brazoban (last reliever), DLC (last OF bat), Fortes (better catcher and option, etc.)). Maybe that should be the goal, build a team that survives to the all star break and reassess as it's unrealistic to expect the FO to put together an 88 win team on paper with the Bruce Sherman budget experience. I think they'd easily be able to do that if they went to the $135m range (adding $45-50m to current team with no defections) which is just sad. This is where not having Sandy is totally brutal as he could be half that "7" needed on paper.

Anyways, they can get an arm and some kind of bat in FA for sure that can probably do that on paper (similar to Segura and Cueto), but no idea where that SS comes from with what is out there as it's not Rosario. Maybe I can be wrong about Rosario two offseasons in a row though and he becomes an OK enough defender and poor man's Arraez and sprinkles hits everywhere hitting .310 with the low K rate and a high BABIP in a presumable contract year. Maybe a little power growth too as he's big and he should be hitting for more power which is why I liked him in the first place. TBH, I'd prefer him at 2B, Arraez at 1B, Bell as primary DH, and Amaya on the roster playing SS against all lefties and Berti gets the rest, and the team signing an OF to replace DLC(and Garcia). The SS situation is real bad in free agency and absent an enormous move for Adames, maybe it's better to just keep the pitching versus move something for Joey Ortiz. Cue why they should have signed Swanson/Xander/Correa/Turner last offseason here.

We'll see. Hopefully Bruce gives them the budget, or Bendix is a genius and pulls Uggla andy C. Ross out of his ass for nothing.

[lou]

I’d be shocked if the plan is to move Fortes down. They’re often banking on the best case scenario, and because of that I’d bet the catcher they add isn’t a catcher they plan to start for the bulk of the season. That’s why I mentioned Garver. I’ll be happy to be wrong here, but that’s my bet.

Here here to the best case scenario. I agree also, I get the vibes they are going to live and die with the pitching growth. Which in their defense, may be the best decision unless Bruce opens it up a little payroll wise. I'm not with you on Garver though. It creates the triple DH problem again (Bell, DLC, Garver) that they just had with Soler, Cooper, and Yuli (with DLC making it quadruple over the course of the year). I don't think Bendix is going to operate like that. "The Rays" have always valued defense from how I've viewed the team (Kiermaier, Margot, Siri, Zunino, traded guys like Meadows, trying to trade Azorena right now, etc.), so I don't think the Marlins would invite that kind of logjam again. As Burger isn't exactly a sure thing 3B on top of that, and Arraez/Edwards aren't considered good defenders either. What better way to help the strength (pitching), then get defenders at SS and OF, and if they are both guys who can hit left handed pitching, you can make the team work with moving Berti and Edwards/Brujan around.

What I'm saying here is (lol), Adames is perfect if they can figure that out. Maybe you ask for D. Williams also and give them something really nice. 6.8 combined WAR in 2022, and 5.4 in 2023. They will cost just under $20m in 2024. Their surplus value is probably like $40m+ right now, so that probably costs you.... Max/Noble, Fulton, Cappe, Maldonado/Miller/Millbrandt/whatever, and one of the projectable lower level kids, like Sanoja. I think Milwaukee would be real interested in that, knowing they can get even more pitching for Burnes as they rebuild. Hopefully something really fun like this is coming.

[fish16]

betancourt is fine. that is an improvement in the margins that im talking about. Stallings the last 2 years was a -1.6 and Betancourt was a 1.8 WAR. Sheer competence goes a long way at C and SS compared to what we had the last 2 years. I still think we get 1 more guy and let Fortes be great AAA depth or maybe he can sneak on the roster somehow, but now go get a legit corner OF/DH and a SS and back end pitcher and then go find some righty RP's for cheap and run it back.

[lou]

betancourt is fine. that is an improvement in the margins that im talking about. Stallings the last 2 years was a -1.6 and Betancourt was a 1.8 WAR. Sheer competence goes a long way at C and SS compared to what we had the last 2 years. I still think we get 1 more guy and let Fortes be great AAA depth or maybe he can sneak on the roster somehow, but now go get a legit corner OF/DH and a SS and back end pitcher and then go find some righty RP's for cheap and run it back.

Bethancourt had a 1.8 WAR in 2022, and a .6 last year just to mention the FG calculation.* It's basically a full season over 600 PA. If he splits that pace, it's an excellent acquisition for the price.

That's a radical improvement over Stallings, but on a big picture level, means nothing when you compare it to Stallings because the team has lost at least 7 WAR via Sandy, Soler, and to a lesser extent Hampson, Floro, etc. All of that needs to be made up even if the Stallings/Segura/Wendle/Yuli (-3.5 WAR, yuck) guys get chipped away at. And then, you gotta do more to negate the 1 run luck as discussed.

[fish16]

Bethancourt had a 1.8 WAR in 2022, and a .6 last year just to mention the FG calculation.* It's basically a full season over 600 PA. If he splits that pace, it's an excellent acquisition for the price.

That's a radical improvement over Stallings, but on a big picture level, means nothing when you compare it to Stallings because the team has lost at least 7 WAR via Sandy, Soler, and to a lesser extent Hampson, Floro, etc. All of that needs to be made up even if the Stallings/Segura/Wendle/Yuli (-3.5 WAR, yuck) guys get chipped away at. And then, you gotta do more to negate the 1 run luck as discussed.

There can be improvements from within. Full seasons of Bell and Burger, Jazz staying healthy, Eury being up the whole year, Cabrera figuring it out a little, not having to get 24 starts from the likes of Cueto, Okert, Hoeing, Chargois, etc., getting rid of DLC and signing a major league caliber LF and not giving a bad baseball player the most PA's on the team like last year. It will of course be hard to get back to where we were last year, but i dont think it is as drastic as you think it will be. Health will be the biggest thing to me. Jazz particularly.

[sports24/7]

Here here to the best case scenario. I agree also, I get the vibes they are going to live and die with the pitching growth. Which in their defense, may be the best decision unless Bruce opens it up a little payroll wise. I'm not with you on Garver though. It creates the triple DH problem again (Bell, DLC, Garver) that they just had with Soler, Cooper, and Yuli (with DLC making it quadruple over the course of the year). I don't think Bendix is going to operate like that. "The Rays" have always valued defense from how I've viewed the team (Kiermaier, Margot, Siri, Zunino, traded guys like Meadows, trying to trade Azorena right now, etc.), so I don't think the Marlins would invite that kind of logjam again. As Burger isn't exactly a sure thing 3B on top of that, and Arraez/Edwards aren't considered good defenders either. What better way to help the strength (pitching), then get defenders at SS and OF, and if they are both guys who can hit left handed pitching, you can make the team work with moving Berti and Edwards/Brujan around.

What I'm saying here is (lol), Adames is perfect if they can figure that out. Maybe you ask for D. Williams also and give them something really nice. 6.8 combined WAR in 2022, and 5.4 in 2023. They will cost just under $20m in 2024. Their surplus value is probably like $40m+ right now, so that probably costs you.... Max/Noble, Fulton, Cappe, Maldonado/Miller/Millbrandt/whatever, and one of the projectable lower level kids, like Sanoja. I think Milwaukee would be real interested in that, knowing they can get even more pitching for Burnes as they rebuild. Hopefully something really fun like this is coming.

I agree that hopefully the plan is to get a longterm answer at SS. Honestly, the success of the offseason probably hinges on that. In a perfect world they also find a better upgrade at catcher, and add some pitching, but I’d be satisfied with just nailing it at SS.

[lou]

There can be improvements from within. Full seasons of Bell and Burger, Jazz staying healthy, Eury being up the whole year, Cabrera figuring it out a little, not having to get 24 starts from the likes of Cueto, Okert, Hoeing, Chargois, etc., getting rid of DLC and signing a major league caliber LF and not giving a bad baseball player the most PA's on the team like last year. It will of course be hard to get back to where we were last year, but i dont think it is as drastic as you think it will be. Health will be the biggest thing to me. Jazz particularly.

I hope you are right, but teams that have 27.7 WAR don't usually make the playoffs nor are considered good. The next closest playoff teams were Arizona/Milwaukee who were around 33+ WAR. That in itself is an enormous differential, until you jump to the low/mid 40s which is where Bal, Phi, Min, Tor, and Hou landed, and then there is another jump up Tex (48.5), and another jump up to those over 50 with TB, LAD, and Atlanta (56+ WAR). San Diego was over 43+ WAR last year for perspective as to just how lucky Miami got. They had a 93 win estimate and fell 11 short. The Marlins going 33-14 in 1 run games is insane. If they went 27-20 which would be a fantastic rate for a season, they'd have 78 wins quickly. They were frankly a mid 70s win team last year that got extremely lucky with their one run luck, Jordan Hicks throwing baseballs over 1B heads which something weird like that happened 3-4 times, as well as severe under performances for SD, CHC, and to a lesser extent, the injury ravaged seller Mets.

I can optimistically as a homer pencil in around 36 WAR for the current roster which I'd say accounts for full seasons of those guys and no major injuries to the big ones (Arraez, Jazz, Luzardo, Eury). This is like 10 more than last year as-is without Sandy. Which is why I think they need to add at least 7 here on out, presumably SS, OF/Bat, and a SP, with bonus points for Fortes, DLC, and Brazoban upgrades on top of that. This is why I am liking something like Adames + D. Williams idea. If you're going to have to win those close games, Adames is an elite defender and Williams would effectively make games 7 innings combined with Scott. That's how you're going to eek out the close ones. That's probably a $105m team needing 1 arm. One of the Meyers, Fulton, Cappe/Mesa Jr., and some FV40 throw-ins will get that done and Adames should be able to be extended less then Swanson (call it around 6/$125+ or 7/$150m+ with Adames) which makes a ton of sense as he's just 28. They are going to have to do something like that. Rosario, Grichuk/Pham/M. Taylor, and some ordinary reliever isn't going to be enough IMO. They need some star power oomph.

[lou]

I agree that hopefully the plan is to get a longterm answer at SS. Honestly, the success of the offseason probably hinges on that. In a perfect world they also find a better upgrade at catcher, and add some pitching, but I’d be satisfied with just nailing it at SS.

How many years have we all been saying this, but for some of those years insert CF instead. It's gotta be at least 5?

I'm not sure catchers exist out there as the board has discussed, but I would be satisfied with any real plan at SS. Doesn't even have to be an elite guy, they could get an incredible OF and SP upgrade and a solid platoon partner for Berti and it could make sense. These rumblings about Edwards being worked at SS after he's never done it for years in two systems is just come on. Maybe he surprises and it'll be a revelation like Jazz in CF so by all means go for it in spring training, but I long for the days they stop trying to fit the round pegs in the square holes as plan A. Of course, they have the offseason to find a SS and they have to know they need one.

[lou]

Fangraphs got to the Marlins in offseason projections

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zip...miami-marlins/
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=20

TLDR - They need offense and some right handed pitching (aka DUH). Zips has them 35.6 WAR and Depth Charts 33.7 WAR.


This says to me they need significant SS and LF upgrades and two right handed pitchers, one a SP/Bulk reliever for at least 100 innings, and a high leverage right handed bullpen arm. This isn't really ground breaking analysis, just confirmation that's probably what their best bet is to improve (including what is available out there as there really aren't any catchers absent a huge move). They did mention Matt Chapman would make a ton of sense if they open the bank. I agree to get Bell to DH (Burger 1B for 2024 and then he shifts to DH with Arraez moving over), but I'd rather not sign a guy like him over 30. A different 3B could make some sense though to do the same thing positionally if they do some weird trades. That might be a next year thing. Maybe Cappe will work out for 3B.

Generally, I think they are too high on the catchers and probably Burger, Max, and the bullpen, but under selling Jazz, Arraez, Sanchez, and maybe Cabrera a bit. That probably levels out. I think a 34-35 WAR team projection is pretty fair. They need those extra minimum 7 WAR or so in production pretty badly, and jesus this is so sad without Sandy as he'd be half easily at the same budget.

Three 2+ WAR players and a very good RHP reliever get to 7 on a big picture level, even if that isn't exciting. Under the free agent tabs on depth charts, Amed Rosario is the third best bat FA at 2.3 WAR. Not sure I believe that but they are giving him a 2023 mulligan. Tim Anderson is a 1.5 which I also don't believe. Harrison Bader a 1.7 which I do believe. Garver a 1.9 (in 400 PA). It drops off pretty rapidly from there. SP they have over a 1.5 WAR are Flaherty, Wacha, Ryu, Montas, and Bauer(!). They have Manaea, Paxton, Giolito, and Urias(!) over a 2 WAR. And 2.5-3.3 WAR they have Imanaga, Stroman, Yamamoto, Montgomery, and Snell. Hicks, Stephenson, Brasier, Neris, and our friend Robertson are the only righty relievers with a .5+ WAR projection. Rosario, Bader, Montas, and any of those relievers roughly get you to a stone's throw to 7 WAR on paper. That's probably close to $40m in payroll if it's done solely through free agency. That seems like a lot to devote to those guys (would increase team payroll to $125m). So we'll see what they do. Maybe they sign Rosario/Bader and Montas/SP, trade for a SS/OF, and use magic to find a RHP RP for cheap. Can probably do that for under $110m and that's not adding longterm contracts which is obviously key. I still like blowing out the farm for Adames/D. Williams too. They have them down for 4.5 WAR, and then any old 1+ WAR SP/Bulk reliever and 1+ WAR 4th OF backup gets you where you need to be for probably $110m once you resign Adames and backload the deal a little off 2024.

Razor thin margin of error here. Hopefully Bendix has it in him as frankly, he needs a plant his flag move right away to help 2024.

[fish16]

per mish in the herald we have interest in knizner. how serious that interest is who knows but, while it's not the sexiest combo, Betancourt, Knizner, and Fortes as the depth as the catching group isnt the worst thing in the world.

Realistically, once bendix was hired, we should have known they werent going to go the big time addition route for C. The rays never invest a ton in C's.

[lou]

Bad nugget in Miami Herald (https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/m...#storylink=cpy) - The Marlins might not exceed last season’s $105 million payroll, but there are no orders from ownership to substantially drop payroll, either.

Thanks Bruce. Stellar.

I just took a look at the payroll numbers. Both Fangraphs roster resources, which seemingly is calculating based on luxury tax and not on actual payroll and has Marlins payroll at $97m which is wrong, and Cots, who scaled Sandy's salary wrong to $17m a year early and have payroll at $93m, are wrong IMO.

One interesting nuance though - they both now have Jesus Sanchez in arbitration. He's at 2.118 days of service time so he might be the last Super2 if it was a down year. That's a $1-1.25m kick in the nuts to the Marlins if he did qualify by likely 1 or 2 days. That would fall under poor Kim roster management if this did happen. In any event, I'll just assume he is a super2 as there must be some basis for both of them including him. Good for Sanchez though.

That puts this at roughly.... $89m. I had been saying closer to $86, but Bethancourt and Sanchez do bump this and I may have been a little low on some of the other arb tenders. Maybe they do well in arbitration and get this down to $87-88m, and deal Chargois and/or Okert and that'll knock another $2.5-3m off of this.

Bethancourt, Fortes
Arraez, Bell
Edwards, Brujan
_____, Berti
Burger
_____, DLC
Jazz
Sanchez

SP Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Cabrera, Rogers
BULK _____, Puk, Weathers
RP Scott, Nardi, _____, Chargois, Okert


Optimistically Bruce gives them $110m to play with, they can shave another $1.5m on arbitration, and ditch Chargois and Okert to lower this by another $2.5m, and all of a sudden, they have $25m to fill 6 spots, and three of those could be minimum RP (Meyer, Brazoban, Bender and gang), meaning a SS, OF, and SP/Bulk RP for $22m+. Would be really helpful to trade for CC SS or OF here so effectively, it's two $10m free agents. God this ownership group sucks.

[lou]

per mish in the herald we have interest in knizner. how serious that interest is who knows but, while it's not the sexiest combo, Betancourt, Knizner, and Fortes as the depth as the catching group isnt the worst thing in the world.

Realistically, once bendix was hired, we should have known they werent going to go the big time addition route for C. The rays never invest a ton in C's.

Knizner has an option so I believe they could sign him to a MLB deal and then just have a perpetual Fortes-Knizner battle and keep cycling options based on who is doing better. Basically avoiding waivers which is big. They could also theoretically, option Fortes down when they have a 10 day stretch of mostly probable right handers and call Knizner up, and then flip them when a few lefties are on the horizon. It would be some movement for them, but I feel each of those guys could be optioned once a month for the other just to cycle them and they could each get 30-40+ starts with Bethancourt carrying a 70-80 start load. I’m in for this. While not a world beater, Knizner is a RHP splits favored guy (career .661) and Fortes kills lefties so in a perfect world that’s your catcher combo in 25 with Knizner late blooming into his hit tool and hitting righties a little harder (he was better in 2023) and Fortes leveling off closer to his 2021-2022 rates. Basically, this is a good “cheap” plan if they satisfactorily address SS, OF/Bat, and another RHP arm or two.

I see they mentioned they are going to stretch out Soriano like Puk also. Frankly, they are indicating they are looking for bulk reliever innings with that and Puk (and Faucher and Tyler MiLB moves) so their focus may just be on one high leverage RP. That does make sense in a Rays kind of way of finding some bridge arms that throw 2+ innings a time and can go through the lineup once. I can see this for the pitching:

Luzardo
Eury —> Puk
Garrett
Cabrera —> Weathers
Rogers —> Soriano, eventually shifts to Meyer

____, Chargois, Brazoban/Hoeing (eventually shifts to Bender)
Scott, Nardi

(I’m trading Okert here to save $500-750k to devote elsewhere)

[fish16]

i am thinking more and more that we are going to trade luzardo for an enormous package. The orioles make too much sense. That could net us an enormous package of hitting prospects that completely changes our long term lineup. It would put a pin in contending next year, but if we get what i think we could get from them, i think i would do it.

They arent going to give us holliday, but id go for Luzardo and Tanner scott for a ridiculous package of young bats like Mayo, Cowser/Kjerstad, Basallo, and Ortiz/Westburg. They pretty desperately need pitching and already have Rutchman, Gunner, Holliday and Ortiz/Westburg,

That would absolutely change the complexion of how this team is built, and as much as it sucks to lose luzardo, you still have plenty of high end pitching moving forward with Eury, Sandy, Garrett, both Meyers, Cabrera, and maybe Rogers still falls into that category. I think that is the type of move i could get behind even if it would suck for next years chances. But even so, i could see that working out as soon as next year and building to a monster for 2025. Mayo, Cowser, Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Westburg are all ML ready. I doubt we get 4 of those guys, but 3 of them change this franchise pretty quickly. Plus Basallo could finally fill the C position long term.

I think i would do it for Mayo, Basallo, and then our choice of Cower, Kjerstad, Ortiz, or Westburg, All of a sudden that leaves us with a longterm hitting core of Mayo, Basallo, 3rd piece, Jazz, Arraez, Burger, Sanchez, and maybe Edwards. It kind of resets the clock for our team in a lot of ways if we go and get 3 long term bats that are nowhere close to even arbitration let alone free agency,

If we are going to trade Luzardo, this offseason makes the most sense. First year of arbitration after an enormous year, and Sandy is out anyways so we arent winning anything next year. Capitalize on his enormous value and reset this roster finally. It's an incredibly Rays thing to do. We shall see.