2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Right, but we should be spending money. Resign players, take on money in trades, make smart free agent signings, we haven't done jackshit.

I would just say 2 things. First, this is not the part of free agency that we would be making our moves in anyways. There is always this initial wave which is going to happen after ohtani signs this weekend, and that's just not our level of free agency if we're being realistic. Maybe Garver would fall into that category, but i dont see us breaking the bank for him given that he isnt a full time catcher. If he was i would say be all over him, but he isnt. We are going to be in the 2nd and 3rd tier of free agency if we are going to fill holes. The rosario's, corner OF/DH tier, mediocre C tier, back end SP tier, that will come in january and on like it did last year with Segura and Cueto.

The 2nd thing i would say is that our main moves outside of trades should be extensions for Luzardo, maybe Jazz, definitely arraez, and maybe a few others. Bendix has not been here long, so i would wait until the spring to review how the offseason went in terms of re-signing our own guys.

I think we should be building in the 2nd and 3rd tiers of free agency, plus trades from our SP for long term team controlled hitters, and extensions within. That stuff does not happen this early generally. So i would just wait until the offseason is truly over to view it in totality. The arraez trade didnt even happen until early to mid january last year. Trades are obviously happening, but i think our guys get moved once the big time free agents are gone and teams now have to pivot to the trade market.

So im giving the new front office the benefit of the doubt for the time being. Plus remember, even after bendix we have been hiring a bunch of assistant gm's and other parts of the front office. We just added kapler and the young analytics guy from the rangers front office last week, so it will take some time to come together. Lets revisit in late february and see where we are then.

[fish16]

does 2 years and say 14 million get it done for Rosario? Maybe throw in a mutual option for 2025 so he can have some flexibility if he rebounds? He's nothing special which is why i had vehemently disagreed with lou last year about trading for him AND extending him for way too much money, but he seems like the best option now off a down year. Doesnt do anything particularly well but just a pretty average dude and that's a major upgrade on what wendle was giving us the last 2 years. That's what i mean about improving in the margins. Dont have to sign trea turner as the only way to make a major improvement off last years team. Go find a league average 2 WAR SS and 1.5 WAR C and you've drastically improved on what you had last year already. Then go sign a LF to replace DLC and you've improved the lineup by getting rid of the dead weight while also hopefully getting full seasons from Jazz, Bell, and Burger.

Just looking at Rosario's baseball savant page, not sure what happened last year and whether he was nursing some sort of injury, but his base running value plummeted last year after being elite the year prior. If he was hurt, seems like a real good buy low opportunity to just get some steady SS play for a year or 2.

[lou]

I would just say 2 things. First, this is not the part of free agency that we would be making our moves in anyways. There is always this initial wave which is going to happen after ohtani signs this weekend, and that's just not our level of free agency if we're being realistic. Maybe Garver would fall into that category, but i dont see us breaking the bank for him given that he isnt a full time catcher. If he was i would say be all over him, but he isnt. We are going to be in the 2nd and 3rd tier of free agency if we are going to fill holes. The rosario's, corner OF/DH tier, mediocre C tier, back end SP tier, that will come in january and on like it did last year with Segura and Cueto.

The 2nd thing i would say is that our main moves outside of trades should be extensions for Luzardo, maybe Jazz, definitely arraez, and maybe a few others. Bendix has not been here long, so i would wait until the spring to review how the offseason went in terms of re-signing our own guys.

I think we should be building in the 2nd and 3rd tiers of free agency, plus trades from our SP for long term team controlled hitters, and extensions within. That stuff does not happen this early generally. So i would just wait until the offseason is truly over to view it in totality. The arraez trade didnt even happen until early to mid january last year. Trades are obviously happening, but i think our guys get moved once the big time free agents are gone and teams now have to pivot to the trade market.

So im giving the new front office the benefit of the doubt for the time being. Plus remember, even after bendix we have been hiring a bunch of assistant gm's and other parts of the front office. We just added kapler and the young analytics guy from the rangers front office last week, so it will take some time to come together. Lets revisit in late february and see where we are then.

I mean yes to giving them the benefit of the doubt until opening day, but I'd say this is when they should be signing guys. They should be doing what the Cardinals and now Reds are doing and signing into strengths to open up options later. Same with the Yankees - they have multiple good OF they can trade now for sure.

Frankly, if the Marlins signed Eduardo to 4/$80 and Candelario to 3/$45 instead of the Dbacks and Reds, that pushes 2024 payroll to $120m. That then opens them up to trading say.... Scott, Berti, Rogers, and Chargois to lower payroll to closer to $108m, and they'd be sitting on this:

____, Fortes
Burger, Bell
Arraez, Brujan
_____
Candelario
______, DLC
Jazz, Edwards
Sanchez

Luzardo, Eury, Eduardo, Garrett, Cabrera
Puk, Weathers (we'll call them 100 IP bulk relievers)
____, _____, Brazoban, Soriano (with Max and Bender looming)
Nardi, Okert


You're getting Kjerstad (LF), Ortiz (SS), Norby (2B/LF), and C. Williams (FV40 C years away) for those 4 Marlins players according to BTV (I hate that site, but I'm trying to give an outsider perspective quickly. I think they'd get something pretty similar to that), and immediately Kjerstad, Ortiz, and Norby make the Marlins, they they can shoot out DLC for another RHP reliever (someone will bet on the power potential for something along the lines of a club controlled Chargois level arm IMO), and they can sign literally anyone to help Fortes and figure out C later. Or, maybe they do something wild like trade Noble and Mack for Endy Rodriguez or figure out how to get Danny Jansen (which would increase payroll, but still). This is a $110-115m team tops and that's with two pretty massive signings and they could dip into the farm for another big trade if they want.


Maybe they can accomplish this same strategy waiting out the market and get a "cheap" Segura and Cueto (versus Eduardo and Candelario or whatever). Frankly, that is ideal and their SP is likely always moveable as every team always need young controlled SP, but you start playing with fire eventually as other teams construct their roster and they may be less apt to make moves as they've figured out alternatives. Big picture, the Marlins shouldn't want the Reds, Orioles, and Cardinals (among others) trading out their bats they can move without being involved. Absent the Mariners moving Kirby/Gilbert, the Marlins probably have the best SP to move in baseball. They should be figuring out how to get the Reds, Orioles, or Cardinals packages we can all triangulate. There's no reason to not do it now and they should use FA now to help set up those deals. As I mentioned, if the Marlins sign two SP now, it starts decreasing league inventory and every next SP who is signed or traded makes the Marlins guys more valuable due to availability. They should be helping themselves just like the Cardinals. The Cardinals strategy this offseason has been brilliant so far.


I think the Marlins do get it though and something will happen, but it's just disheartening for them to have to do this dance when the team payroll right now is $85m after 6 years of new ownership not spending. He should be telling Bendix $140m and frankly, any idiot could build this team out as the books are really clear moving forward so they could splurge on maybe not the tier 1 FA (Bellinger, Yamamoto, etc.), but sign three of the next tier guys (Eduardo, Candelario, trade for Adames and sign him, etc.) which would have a radical impact.

We can hope. Big picture, I think they need to improve the culture and the best thing to do would be to sign out of nowhere two guys similar to Eduardo and Candelario, make a big trade for a SS with pick a SP, and then do those extensions - Arraez, Luzardo, Eury, and Jazz. Announce it all the same day even. It would be such a franchise changing moment for them and a big step forward to credibility in this market. While not impacting the bottom line as the books are so cheap moving forward. I don't get it. They are cheap to a fault, but I'm hoping to be surprised.

[lou]

does 2 years and say 14 million get it done for Rosario? Maybe throw in a mutual option for 2025 so he can have some flexibility if he rebounds? He's nothing special which is why i had vehemently disagreed with lou last year about trading for him AND extending him for way too much money, but he seems like the best option now off a down year. Doesnt do anything particularly well but just a pretty average dude and that's a major upgrade on what wendle was giving us the last 2 years. That's what i mean about improving in the margins. Dont have to sign trea turner as the only way to make a major improvement off last years team. Go find a league average 2 WAR SS and 1.5 WAR C and you've drastically improved on what you had last year already. Then go sign a LF to replace DLC and you've improved the lineup by getting rid of the dead weight while also hopefully getting full seasons from Jazz, Bell, and Burger.

Just looking at Rosario's baseball savant page, not sure what happened last year and whether he was nursing some sort of injury, but his base running value plummeted last year after being elite the year prior. If he was hurt, seems like a real good buy low opportunity to just get some steady SS play for a year or 2.

I'd say that's a little low, maybe 1/$10 or 2/$18 sort of thing. He'll want to test free agency pretty quickly again IMO. His SS defense really cratered though. He is the best FA option there just because there is some hope in youth, but it's not a needle moving move absent a real explosion. I'm not sure he is defensively 2019-2022 Rosario anymore which is how he got to be a pretty solid 2+ WAR guy. Frankly, I think he might be more of a LF replacement for DLC than a SS option. Or a 2B and they fully commit to Edwards in the OF, Arraez 1B, and Bell DH sort of thing.

He'd be fine for that 1-2 year deal, but if they are going to spend that kind of money, you can sign Lorenzen for something similar and that opens up a SP trade and you'll get a better bat with way more control than Rosario moving even Rogers. Let alone one of the bigger ones. This is what I have been saying here - sign SP and trade for bats. It's just what is in free agency so ride the wave. We don't want big 3-4 years for Teoscar, Gurriel Jr, Soler, or 2 year deals for Kiermaier, Hoskins, JD Martinez, etc. The SP are better and more economical in FA so get some guys there and then get controlled bats who are on the same service time timeline as Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, and Max, etc. They can spend their "big" money on Luzardo, Arraez, and Jazz who cumulatively, is probably $250m in deals between the three of them if they extend them. Which they should.

[Namaste]

Fangraphs is projecting the Marlins to have the 13th most wins in MLB next year. Obviously just a projection but

-Fangraphs is typically down on the Marlins
-that’s very close to a playoff spot

[Lee Stone]

Berti, at age 33, is a lot better as a shortstop than Rosario or Tim Anderson at this point.

[fish16]

Berti, at age 33, is a lot better as a shortstop than Rosario or Tim Anderson at this point.

can berti play SS? Sure, but he is ideally suited for a super utility role off the bench starting 3 or so times a week in various spots. Rosario or Anderson on a cheaper short term bounce back contract with a higher ceiling is a better option for the team as a whole They both might just stink now, but they have a much higher ceiling, particularly anderson. Id roll the dice on him and see if getting out of that clusterfuck in Chicago helps him out. He's still just 30 and outside of last year, he played at a 4+ WAR pace over 162 games each of the previous 4 years.

Before last years train wreck he was at 2+ WAR in 6 of his 7 seasons, and a 4 WAR pace from 2019-2022. He would be my top choice over rosario i think.

[fish16]

Fangraphs is projecting the Marlins to have the 13th most wins in MLB next year. Obviously just a projection but

-Fangraphs is typically down on the Marlins
-that’s very close to a playoff spot

makes sense, even with sandy gone we have a lot of really high end pitching, jazz barely played last year, we have bell and burger for full years, and we have an entire offseason to find better options than Wendle and Stallings and hopefully DLC. Does the pitching have it's inning restrictions? Yes, but our SP even with sandy out is still better than a good portion of the teams in the league. I dont think it's out of the ordinary to be somewhere in the 80's in wins again next year. There is a lot of improving we can do in the margins at SS, C, corner OF, and with our righty relievers that were non existent last year. There was a lot of luck, but there was also a lot that went wrong last year that can be improved upon in a way that offsets some of the inevitable drop off in 1 run games. We played so many fucking games last year with 4-5 complete 0's in the bottom of the lineup. Wendle, Stallings, Fortes, Gurriel. DLC, Cooper, Segura, Garcia's appearances.

Then you have the pitching where Cueto, Hoeing, Weathers, Chargois, Barnes, Smeltzer, and Okert started a combined 24 games last year. There are definitely ways we can hopefully improve on the depth and just flat out competence in certain areas to offset the looming decrease in luck in 1 run games.

[lou]

Fangraphs is projecting the Marlins to have the 13th most wins in MLB next year. Obviously just a projection but

-Fangraphs is typically down on the Marlins
-that’s very close to a playoff spot

Link? I imagine this is pre-free agency also so they'll rocket down when other teams make moves and the Marlins don't.

Rockies, White Sox, Nationals, A's, Pirates, Royals, Angels, Tigers, and Mets would be the only teams I for sure think the Marlins will be better than. Moving ahead of another 10 teams is going to be tough.

[Lee Stone]

I'd like to swing a deal with Boston to acquire SS Marcello Mayer and C Ryan Teel (maybe Ceddanne Rafaela too.) Centerpieces from Marlins would be Arraez and Meyer.

[rmc523]

???

[lou]

I'd like to swing a deal with Boston to acquire SS Marcello Mayer and C Ryan Teel (maybe Ceddanne Rafaela too.) Centerpieces from Marlins would be Arraez and Meyer.

Oh we're in fantasy land? I'd like Bruce Sherman to approve a $136m budget (+$50m to spend right now in free agency), which would place them 19th in overall MLB payroll based on 2023 numbers, 18th for 2022, 16th for 2021, and 16th for 2019.

Just imagine what they could do if they signed say, five pitchers for collectively $50m which totals around 550 IP, with them penciling in another 750 from Luzardo, Eury, Garrett, Weathers, Puk, Nardi, and Okert, meaning they just have 150-350 garbage time/replacement innings to go and an assortment of Brazobans, Hoeings, and Sorianos can bridge to Max Meyer and Anthony Bender here, and all of a sudden Cabrera, Rogers, Scott, Noble (for Endy Rodriguez, blow them away), DLC, Chargois, + more can each be traded for a club controlled C, SS, LF, and CF that can play right now.

This is all too complicated and the Marlins are committing brand suicide moving Arraez.

The solution is good ownership and a realistic budget.

[fish16]

I'd like to swing a deal with Boston to acquire SS Marcello Mayer and C Ryan Teel (maybe Ceddanne Rafaela too.) Centerpieces from Marlins would be Arraez and Meyer.

why stop there? they should throw in casas and devers too

[rmc523]

why stop there? they should throw in casas and devers too

Don't forget, Lee is trading Sandy too!

[Namaste]

Link? I imagine this is pre-free agency also so they'll rocket down when other teams make moves and the Marlins don't.

Rockies, White Sox, Nationals, A's, Pirates, Royals, Angels, Tigers, and Mets would be the only teams I for sure think the Marlins will be better than. Moving ahead of another 10 teams is going to be tough.

I agree that post Free Agency signings we will move down

https://x.com/codifybaseball/status/...5F6k6qnReU4cyQ