2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Gonzales isnt dead payroll, he's a decent back end rotation guy who can eat some innings. He's a pitch to contact #5. They arent paying him to go away. He's slightly overpaid, but he'd probably get 1 year, 5 million on the open market. They needed arms and he will be in their rotation.

Evan white was a top prospect but had a series of serious issues. He is the only real dead money, and he might still be a roster player if he finally gets healthy. He was an elite defender with a high floor bat before he got hurt.

Kowar stinks. He has a 9.12 ERA over his 71 mlb innings, and he has been horrific in the minors the last 2 years as well. The hit rate on 2nd round picks is absurdly low. The guy hasnt thrown a professional pitch last year.

Kelenic will for sure go there and develop as he was supposed to a few years ago.

It's 27 million total over 2 years, plus the upside of kelenic

They traded Wright for Kowar. They like him. It’s also difficult to argue Evan White might be something because he’s been hurt and then Kowar stinks but ignore he’s been hurt. It feels like a Ragans situation to me and he’s going to turn into something. Maybe you’re right and Marco will eat some innings (or even Atlanta will eat some of his salary and ship him out). But Kelenic is nothing too special absent they can figure out the swing. And I think the Mariners are a good FO so they’d have done it if they could. I’d love this for Atlanta if they didn’t absorb $30m and was just prospects. They could have probably signed Soler back for something similar value wise which is where they lose me. Like Adam Duvall is probably better and not going to be close to what they absorbed to do this. Guess we’ll see.

[Nick]

Disagree on Nunez. There is a spot on a 26-man roster for a guy who has brilliant baserunning and stolen base skills (He had half of the stolen bases on the entire Pensacola roster this season) and elite defense. Late inning use as a bunter to move a runner over or to steal bases and maximize the team's potential to score. It is this unique blend of skills that makes Nunez valuable. I would expect his hitting to improve as well due to incredible hand/eye coordination.

I'm a big fan of Nunez still, don't think he should be anywhere near a major league roster, though. Incredible hand/eye coordination though? He's a career .233 hitter in the minors, striking out 21.5% of his PAs. Nunez has a lot of skills, but I would say hand/eye coordination with the bat is holding him back if anything.

[lou]

Disagree on Nunez. There is a spot on a 26-man roster for a guy who has brilliant baserunning and stolen base skills (He had half of the stolen bases on the entire Pensacola roster this season) and elite defense. Late inning use as a bunter to move a runner over or to steal bases and maximize the team's potential to score. It is this unique blend of skills that makes Nunez valuable. I would expect his hitting to improve as well due to incredible hand/eye coordination.

He’s just going to be pumped fastballs and not hit them out of the infield. I’ll be shocked if he is taken and survives a whole year on a roster. He needs to get PA if he’s going to be anything so an acquiring team would be doing him a disservice if they did that which goes against taking him

[Namaste]

I don't see the Marlins as a serious contender this season ... not even close really.

The bad news is your pre-season prediction was only off by 32 wins in 2023

The good news is that with no Sandy and an owner with alligator arms, I have faith that your 2024 prediction will see improvement.

[fish16]

id recommend going back and looking at the rule 5 draft and looking at not only how few actually pan out, but how few actually stay on the team and arent returned back to their original team. There are of course success stories over the years, but they are few and far between. Even if johnston gets drafted, id doubt he survives the spring or even the year without getting returned back.

Nobody is pocketing nunez on their roster, and banfield makes sense if a team trades for him and puts him on the 40 man, but no team is keeping him on the roster all year. he needs at least 1, maybe 2 full more minor league seasons of positive development to be a viable big league hitter, and he obviously cant get that at the major league level. It was a risk not adding him, but i think they will sneak him back.

The only one at real risk of being picked is johnston, and if he is, i think there is still a good chance he is returned back here at some point.

[fish16]

cardinals came out and said tyler oneill is someone they are listening to offers on. Feels like that's someone who makes a ton of sense for us. super weird year last year but skip should know him, he has a lot of pure power, good defender, can play all 3 OF spots, and he is a career .816 OPS against lefties and still holds his own against righties. Numbers have been middling the last 2 years but his BABIP's have been low so there is a healthy floor for him and a pretty high ceiling.

Spotrac estimates he will get 5 million in arbitration. With his upside, i would take that all day. Worst case scenario he can do what DLC does, but he has a history of being really fucking good when he put it together.

Given that the cards GM is coming out and flatly saying that they are listening to offers for him, i doubt he would cost a ton in terms of prospects. Maybe you can use Okert and a lower minors prospect to nab him and hope he puts it all together again. He's still just 28, and his production on the open market would probably cost more than what you would pay him.

[lou]

The Braves are saying they are going to trade Marco

Athletic is hinting to a Rays bat (Azorena, Paredas) for Mariners SP trade. That’ll be a good barometer of what to expect if the Marlins make a move as Seattle’s young arms are excellent and similar to Miami. Makes a ton of sense all around and Rays can recoup bats then trading Glasnow to Baltimore or St. Louis.

I truly think the Marlins should sign two free agent SP ASAP to lower free agent inventory and increase the value of what they have to trade. I suppose this could include trading for someone like Matz which also lowers league availability. Even if this is just a Montas or Mahle project signing and Lorenzen, it’s pulling names off the board similar to Gibson/Lynn signings. Even better signing Matt Moore also and then maybe you have two lefty relievers you can trade for radical offense fixes.

[fish16]

The Braves are saying they are going to trade Marco

Athletic is hinting to a Rays bat (Azorena, Paredas) for Mariners SP trade. That’ll be a good barometer of what to expect if the Marlins make a move as Seattle’s young arms are excellent and similar to Miami. Makes a ton of sense all around and Rays can recoup bats then trading Glasnow to Baltimore or St. Louis.

I truly think the Marlins should sign two free agent SP ASAP to lower free agent inventory and increase the value of what they have to trade. I suppose this could include trading for someone like Matz which also lowers league availability. Even if this is just a Montas or Mahle project signing and Lorenzen, it’s pulling names off the board similar to Gibson/Lynn signings. Even better signing Matt Moore also and then maybe you have two lefty relievers you can trade for radical offense fixes.

we have way too many needs and too few resources to just sign SP's for the sake of increasing the value of SP's as a whole on the market. Teams arent just going to start overpaying because there are 2 fewer SP's on the market. We should probably sign 1 innings eating arm who can give us 180 quality innings to help some of the young arms, but we have too many needs and too little money to spend to get cute for something that really wont work in the first place.

[fish16]

id focus on signing a decent stop gap that is good enough i guess in Rosario, and then go use Rogers and prospects to try and get a longterm C and SS, then go get o'neill as the lefty hitting OF with promise. That is realistically the best we can do. There will be a major step back without sandy next year barring something crazy. I wouldnt go use a bunch of money to sign middling SP's as if that is going to move the needle for us. There is no replacing Sandy even at his level from last year. We simply cannot replace that amount of innings from our rotation. Make some moves to improve in the margins for next year while focusing on 2025 as a year of actual legitimate contention.

[lou]

id focus on signing a decent stop gap that is good enough i guess in Rosario, and then go use Rogers and prospects to try and get a longterm C and SS, then go get o'neill as the lefty hitting OF with promise. That is realistically the best we can do. There will be a major step back without sandy next year barring something crazy. I wouldnt go use a bunch of money to sign middling SP's as if that is going to move the needle for us. There is no replacing Sandy even at his level from last year. We simply cannot replace that amount of innings from our rotation. Make some moves to improve in the margins for next year while focusing on 2025 as a year of actual legitimate contention.

I know you don’t disagree but that isn’t doing shit for 2024 and do we care about the margins of a better W/L? The idea with the SP is you open up moving Cabrera and Rogers (or better) for real bats and have a full rotation, etc.

Id rather them sell then have an offseason of Rosario, O’Neill, Maldonado, and middling P acquisitions. That team is going nowhere. Use that money for long term extensions and go out and eat half of Bell’s deal to move him, trade Berti, trade Scott, trade Puk, trade Okert, trade Chargois and just go full kids. You’ll get two awesome prospect bats for Scott and Puk adding in Bell+money and Berti as secondary pieces and Okert and Chargois as third pieces to them to a contender. If you’re going to punt, sign the guys you want to sign long term (Luzardo, Arraez, Eury, Jazz) and kick that can.

It’s the treading water/do nothing philosophy which is always the bad idea. So if it’s a punt because of Sandy and Eury/Cabrera/Rogers/Weathers max at 130-140 IP and Max/Bender need a full recovery year, where all of that projects as 500 more innings in 2025 (seriously could be that many with Sandy at 200, max and bender another 175+ and another 125 in progression from the rest), just circle 2025 and move the needle. Classic Bruce moves.

Not looking to fight here but attacking margins doesn’t do it for me. It’s figure out how to make an 88 win team, or unapologetically don’t and wait for those 500 innings to show up in 2025. Because that’s your target year. And that’s insane with what they did last year. I hope they don’t blow it due to cheapness.

[fish16]

I know you don’t disagree but that isn’t doing shit for 2024 and do we care about the margins of a better W/L? The idea with the SP is you open up moving Cabrera and Rogers (or better) for real bats and have a full rotation, etc.

Id rather them sell then have an offseason of Rosario, O’Neill, Maldonado, and middling P acquisitions. That team is going nowhere. Use that money for long term extensions and go out and eat half of Bell’s deal to move him, trade Berti, trade Scott, trade Puk, trade Okert, trade Chargois and just go full kids. You’ll get two awesome prospect bats for Scott and Puk adding in Bell+money and Berti as secondary pieces and Okert and Chargois as third pieces to them to a contender. If you’re going to punt, sign the guys you want to sign long term (Luzardo, Arraez, Eury, Jazz) and kick that can.

It’s the treading water/do nothing philosophy which is always the bad idea. So if it’s a punt because of Sandy and Eury/Cabrera/Rogers/Weathers max at 130-140 IP and Max/Bender need a full recovery year, where all of that projects as 500 more innings in 2025 (seriously could be that many with Sandy at 200, max and bender another 175+ and another 125 in progression from the rest), just circle 2025 and move the needle. Classic Bruce moves.

Not looking to fight here but attacking margins doesn’t do it for me. It’s figure out how to make an 88 win team, or unapologetically don’t and wait for those 500 innings to show up in 2025. Because that’s your target year. And that’s insane with what they did last year. I hope they don’t blow it due to cheapness.

Is it moving the needle? Probably not. But i think Attacking the margins can help this team surprise next year if things break right. That's why i say attack the margins and hope for the best. There is a fine line between being realistic about next year and completely punting a season.

Maybe eury breaks out in a crazy way, Garrett and Luzardo stay healthy again, and Cabrera learns how to throw strikes. Then maybe jazz stays healthy and we find a way to acquire a long term SS/C or a really good stop gap for a year or 2 that can produce and let us contend for a playoff spot again.

The big thing to me is not signing mediocre players or stop gaps to long term deals. If you have to go get a rosario, fine, but dont sign him long term obviously. That's what i mean by improving in the margins and hoping for the best while also acknowledging the likely reality that we are looking at 2025 now with Sandy out. But you dont completely punt the year. Baseball is a weird sport, and we have high end pitching that can surprise a lot of teams if we stay healthy and some things bounce right for us.

You say that team is going nowhere, but you also thought last years team was going nowhere. Baseball is incredibly random. We are likely looking at 2025, but you dont waste a year and fail to make improvements where you can in the short term just because you are focused on the long term. Both can be done simultaneously. If you cant deal an arm for a long term SS or C, go get a rosario and a garver. With some luck those moves can be the difference between an 82 win team and a wild card team.

Punting a year and not at least trying to make a concerted but intelligent effort to win next year despite the adversity we face is a great way to tear down any progress this team made with the fan base last year. It's not playoffs or 65 wins. 83 wins isnt a playoff team, but it's better for us than 65 wins at this stage of the rebuild. Bottoming out and getting a draft pick that will help us in 2028 if they pan out at all does nothing for 2025, nor does it do anything for the continued success of baseball in this market.

[fish16]

i also just vehemently disagree on how conservative lou's innings limits are on our guys as always. Cabrera pitched 128 innings last year and missed a month due to injury. Why is he limited to 130-140 innings? there is no reason he cant be let loose for 160-170 innings if he is healthy.

Eury pitched 127 innings, why cant he pitch at least 150-160? Ryan weathers pitched 136 innings last year and 123 the year prior. Who knows if he is even good, but to say these guys are limited to 130-140 is kind of absurdly careful. Not saying they can throw 220 like Sandy, but the babying of arms that will inevitably get hurt anyways with how hard guys throw nowadays is super annoying.

[lou]

i also just vehemently disagree on how conservative lou's innings limits are on our guys as always. Cabrera pitched 128 innings last year and missed a month due to injury. Why is he limited to 130-140 innings? there is no reason he cant be let loose for 160-170 innings if he is healthy.

Eury pitched 127 innings, why cant he pitch at least 150-160? Ryan weathers pitched 136 innings last year and 123 the year prior. Who knows if he is even good, but to say these guys are limited to 130-140 is kind of absurdly careful. Not saying they can throw 220 like Sandy, but the babying of arms that will inevitably get hurt anyways with how hard guys throw nowadays is super annoying.

Cabrera threw more in the minors than I realized, he’s probably closer to 150 if he can do it. Weathers likely has arm inventory but performance is likely what keeps him lower on innings. I can’t see him emerging as a # 3 SP and getting 150 innings for this team. They won’t push Rogers too hard, he’s probably a 140 max to me off injuries. Eury is 21 and they are going to baby him. 140 max. They pitched him more than they wanted to last year remember and just did it because of contending. I’d cite how the Rays routinely pulled McClanahan early even though their fans wanted to let him rip. If you want to make an argument that that somehow hurts the player (as he of course got hurt) that’s another topic, but this isn’t my innings limits - this is what teams do. And if anything, this is going to get “worse” as new ex/Rays brass is probably going to operate closer to their model and pull these guys more often third time through lineup and throw more bulk appearances which will depress innings. I consider that all a net gain, but the Rays have only thrown 5 pitchers the last three seasons more than 135 innings. I’d bet pretty heavily the Marlins don’t have 5 guys that get there in 2024 but it should be pretty close as they have at least 6 guys with the arms to get there

[lou]

Is it moving the needle? Probably not. But i think Attacking the margins can help this team surprise next year if things break right. That's why i say attack the margins and hope for the best. There is a fine line between being realistic about next year and completely punting a season.

Maybe eury breaks out in a crazy way, Garrett and Luzardo stay healthy again, and Cabrera learns how to throw strikes. Then maybe jazz stays healthy and we find a way to acquire a long term SS/C or a really good stop gap for a year or 2 that can produce and let us contend for a playoff spot again.

The big thing to me is not signing mediocre players or stop gaps to long term deals. If you have to go get a rosario, fine, but dont sign him long term obviously. That's what i mean by improving in the margins and hoping for the best while also acknowledging the likely reality that we are looking at 2025 now with Sandy out. But you dont completely punt the year. Baseball is a weird sport, and we have high end pitching that can surprise a lot of teams if we stay healthy and some things bounce right for us.

You say that team is going nowhere, but you also thought last years team was going nowhere. Baseball is incredibly random. We are likely looking at 2025, but you dont waste a year and fail to make improvements where you can in the short term just because you are focused on the long term. Both can be done simultaneously. If you cant deal an arm for a long term SS or C, go get a rosario and a garver. With some luck those moves can be the difference between an 82 win team and a wild card team.

Punting a year and not at least trying to make a concerted but intelligent effort to win next year despite the adversity we face is a great way to tear down any progress this team made with the fan base last year. It's not playoffs or 65 wins. 83 wins isnt a playoff team, but it's better for us than 65 wins at this stage of the rebuild. Bottoming out and getting a draft pick that will help us in 2028 if they pan out at all does nothing for 2025, nor does it do anything for the continued success of baseball in this market.

Repeating that 1 run record again isn’t something to bank on IMO. They can sign Montas and Lorenzen, trade two SP to solve bats, and let them work their bullpen magic and fit in under $105m. Which is $30m less than Bruce should be spending. It’s always back to Bruce - he doesn’t care about the “market” until he commits to operating like a real team. Rosario is a good buy low, I’m sure Duvall or Pham or whoever is a smart cheap signing, and anyone is a catcher uograde if that’s what they do, but I’m not enthused with that teams chances.

Coming off playoffs - and I think the Sandy excuse is mitigated by a healthy Rogers + more innings from Cabrera/Eury/Garrett likely coming to - Bruce should do something. Maybe he will, so we’ll see how the offseason goes. If this is a Cueto and Segura repeat of two bare level guys even if those signings are fine in a vacuum, that just sucks for us and the team.

[fish16]

Repeating that 1 run record again isn’t something to bank on IMO. They can sign Montas and Lorenzen, trade two SP to solve bats, and let them work their bullpen magic and fit in under $105m. Which is $30m less than Bruce should be spending. It’s always back to Bruce - he doesn’t care about the “market” until he commits to operating like a real team. Rosario is a good buy low, I’m sure Duvall or Pham or whoever is a smart cheap signing, and anyone is a catcher uograde if that’s what they do, but I’m not enthused with that teams chances.

Coming off playoffs - and I think the Sandy excuse is mitigated by a healthy Rogers + more innings from Cabrera/Eury/Garrett likely coming to - Bruce should do something. Maybe he will, so we’ll see how the offseason goes. If this is a Cueto and Segura repeat of two bare level guys even if those signings are fine in a vacuum, that just sucks for us and the team.

im not banking on the luck continuing, im just saying you dont lose 1 very important player and just decide to punt on an entire season when you still have plenty of talent. while it's not ideal, it's ok to be middle of the pack with the chance to be more if things turn out good again. This whole idea that we should punt the season entirely unless we make huge moves this offseason is just dumb. you can be decent this upcoming year with the opportunity to sneak in if we have some luck while also looking ahead to 2025 when we should be much better.

You dont punt an entire year after making the playoffs for the first time in 20 full seasons. you improve where you can and see what happens while still developing the young talent in the organization with an eye towards the future.