2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

He fucking did improve on it. He hit 26 home runs last year. The fences aren't moved back when you get to the majors. 26 Home Runs in the majors is a 60 on the scale. Will he be able to match that against major league pitching, maybe not, maybe he adds even more power like Muncy did, we don't know.

At some point you have to deviate from the one off scouting report you read a year ago, and look at what he actually did on the field.

I don’t think that’s an improvement at all, or the improvement you think it is if he inched up a little bit. Random performances that can’t be sustained when you move up levels isn’t an improvement. That’s the important part here. It’s just a 26 year old dude hitting AAA pitching. The Marlins didn’t protect him. They have plenty of space. Let’s not OMGNUNEZ this guy. If he was going to be anything they would have protected him.

[Nick]

I don’t think that’s an improvement at all, or the improvement you think it is if he inched up a little bit. Random performances that can’t be sustained when you move up levels isn’t an improvement. That’s the important part here. It’s just a 26 year old dude hitting AAA pitching. The Marlins didn’t protect him. They have plenty of space. Let’s not OMGNUNEZ this guy. If he was going to be anything they would have protected him.

Where the fuck is this trust in the organization coming from. This is the Marlins still, right?

There is nothing random about Johnston's performance, his numbers from level to level could not be more consistent, the only thing that changed this year was he added more power. Don't act like this is a guy that's been around forever. This was only his 4th year of minor league play due to Covid, and his first real go round in AAA and the guy raked plain and simple.

[lou]

Im not under rating him. Hes a fringe MLB player an offensive starved team opted to keep off their 40 man roster. There isn’t much more to say here. Max Muncy is a ludicrously different player profile.

Fringe MLB player? He has never even played a game at the major league level! Is Groshans better than Johnston? He's on the forty man.

Yes players not protected on the 40 man are fringe MLB players. What kind of delusions are we having that this 40 grade power 1B type is going to hit? .382 BABIP in AAA.

As said - Given the current 40 man situation I would have kept him as they have plenty of space, but they didn’t. That says a lot to me. It’s a bold Ben Meyer level take that Johnston ever does anything.

Also to mention, Johnston got to AAA when he was 25. That’s 2025 for Groshans, who already has 1,000 PA at the MLB/AAA levels. Groshans is probably better than him by the time he gets to Johnson’s age. He has a higher BB rate and a lower K rate at 3 years younger of age and has a prototypical build where he may grow into himself. Practically both are likely nothing and fringe 40 man guys. That’s just how low Johnston is here as a huge project in Groshans may hold more long term value. And Groshans is a dud so far. (To note I do expect them to jettison him off the 40 man before spring training.)

Let’s not be overly enamored with our own guys. Johnston is a replacement level bat

[Nick]

Jordan Groshans is one of our own guys.

He sucks shit.

[fish16]

we claimed Kaleb Ort off waivers so the 40 man is at 39 now. AAA filler and maybe gets an opportunity if we need an arm. Very similar to the guy we claimed from seattle the other day, good swing and miss stuff in the minors but no control. Doubt he figures that out at age 31. Throws 96, better XFIP than ERA but still in the low 5's with his XFIP in his big league career.

[fish16]

we could easily trim the fat off the 40 man- faucher, jensen, ort, sixto, josh simpson, groshans, and id guess burdick goes through waivers unclaimed but who knows.

[sports24/7]

Miami hired Gabe Kapler as assistant GM, and now with Skip already in tow, have the most attractive organization in baseball.

[sports24/7]

Somehow the Braves got Jarred Kelenic and two other players (in a Mariners salary dump) for Cole Phillips and Jackson Kowar. Kelenic had a decent bounce back year, and I have no doubt he’ll become the player everyone thought he’d be in Atlanta, and they’ll probably sign him for peanuts for a decade.

[Nick]

mlb.com's list of players that could get drafted in the Rule 5.

https://www.mlb.com/news/players-of-...3-rule-5-draft

3 of 6 position players mentioned are Marlins.

Let's get some more shit ass AAAA relievers on the 40-man why don't we?

[fish16]

no one is keeping nunez and banfield on their roster all year next year. Why dont you wait to bitch until someone actually gets drafted. Nunez stinks. He will never be more than a speed guy off the bench because he is an absolutely horrific hitter with 0 power.

[fish16]

the braves continue to get good players for absolutely nothing.

[lou]

the braves continue to get good players for absolutely nothing.

Nothing? For Kelenic?

They took on $30m in basically dead payroll and shot out a highly projectable FV45 arm with Kowar who has just been hurt. He could flip a switch just like Ragans (maybe not that good but still). The other guy is a recent 2nd rounder. I mean, that is a lot for Kelenic who had a 1.3 WAR last year with a K rate over 31%. He was nothing special outside of April last year. He’s fine and has major upside if he can get his shit together so it’s a nice bet for Atlanta, but the Mariners did well here clearing out money and getting some arms. I wouldn’t say nothing here is all I mean. They dumped around what the Marlins owe Garcia. We’d be pumped to get rid of Garcia’s money for the player equivalent of like… Puk with getting some younger arms back on top of that. Atlanta is no doubt smart and very good at what they do, but this one is really risky for them as FA comparables are likely cheaper (especially when Kelenic’s arb kicks in) and wouldn’t cost the arms. Of course the footnote is, they have ownership that spends money so they can afford these risks where $30m to the Marlins is priceless. Bruce sucks.

[lou]

no one is keeping nunez and banfield on their roster all year next year. Why dont you wait to bitch until someone actually gets drafted. Nunez stinks. He will never be more than a speed guy off the bench because he is an absolutely horrific hitter with 0 power.

I’m not so sure about Banfield as maybe some bad team can keep him as a third catcher, but hard to see how Nunez would stick if he can’t hit.

I’d definitely have protected Banfield first of the three marlins guys here, and agree there is much room to churn to make that happen

[fish16]

Nothing? For Kelenic?

They took on $30m in basically dead payroll and shot out a highly projectable FV45 arm with Kowar who has just been hurt. He could flip a switch just like Ragans (maybe not that good but still). The other guy is a recent 2nd rounder. I mean, that is a lot for Kelenic who had a 1.3 WAR last year with a K rate over 31%. He was nothing special outside of April last year. He’s fine and has major upside if he can get his shit together so it’s a nice bet for Atlanta, but the Mariners did well here clearing out money and getting some arms. I wouldn’t say nothing here is all I mean. They dumped around what the Marlins owe Garcia. We’d be pumped to get rid of Garcia’s money for the player equivalent of like… Puk with getting some younger arms back on top of that. Atlanta is no doubt smart and very good at what they do, but this one is really risky for them as FA comparables are likely cheaper (especially when Kelenic’s arb kicks in) and wouldn’t cost the arms. Of course the footnote is, they have ownership that spends money so they can afford these risks where $30m to the Marlins is priceless. Bruce sucks.

Gonzales isnt dead payroll, he's a decent back end rotation guy who can eat some innings. He's a pitch to contact #5. They arent paying him to go away. He's slightly overpaid, but he'd probably get 1 year, 5 million on the open market. They needed arms and he will be in their rotation.

Evan white was a top prospect but had a series of serious issues. He is the only real dead money, and he might still be a roster player if he finally gets healthy. He was an elite defender with a high floor bat before he got hurt.

Kowar stinks. He has a 9.12 ERA over his 71 mlb innings, and he has been horrific in the minors the last 2 years as well. The hit rate on 2nd round picks is absurdly low. The guy hasnt thrown a professional pitch last year.

Kelenic will for sure go there and develop as he was supposed to a few years ago.

It's 27 million total over 2 years, plus the upside of kelenic

[Lee Stone]

no one is keeping nunez and banfield on their roster all year next year. Why dont you wait to bitch until someone actually gets drafted. Nunez stinks. He will never be more than a speed guy off the bench because he is an absolutely horrific hitter with 0 power.

Disagree on Nunez. There is a spot on a 26-man roster for a guy who has brilliant baserunning and stolen base skills (He had half of the stolen bases on the entire Pensacola roster this season) and elite defense. Late inning use as a bunter to move a runner over or to steal bases and maximize the team's potential to score. It is this unique blend of skills that makes Nunez valuable. I would expect his hitting to improve as well due to incredible hand/eye coordination.