2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Bryan De La Cruz is a much better hitter against RHP.

This is your takeaway from that post? Regardless, speculating the ex-Tampa GM might like Kiermaier because he’s familiar with him and saying that would cast DLC to a true 4th OF role has nothing to do with his splits (which were neutral last year BTW but yes I am well aware of DLC’s 2022 split. Thanks for the audit). If they got KK, DLC is not starting against right handers. Someone like M. Taylor or Bader would make a lot more sense as lefty killers to me if they opt to add a cheap OF. Maybe Duvall. I feel they will do something like that if they go the FA route.

[lou]

SS/3B/OF Casey Abrams
OF Jordan Walker
C Kyle Teel
SS Brooks Lee (Taken right behind Noble Meyer and looking very much like another Dansby Swanson).

These are all guys that should have been drafted and would have filled all the holes.

They should have taken Abrams over Bleday for sure, as well as Lee over Berry (and the jury is very far out here, Maye Brooks is the next Carter Kieboom flop. You never know), and MCCLAIN over Watson, but I don’t think we can second guess Max (Walker) and Noble. If they didn’t take Max, Nick Gonzalez or Asa Lacy was probably the pick not Walker. I do think Noble-Teel will be interesting to look back on in 4 years but hard to criticize today.

Baseball is hard.

[Lee Stone]

They should have taken Abrams over Bleday for sure, as well as Lee over Berry (and the jury is very far out here, Maye Brooks is the next Carter Kieboom flop. You never know), and MCCLAIN over Watson, but I don’t think we can second guess Max (Walker) and Noble. If they didn’t take Max, Nick Gonzalez or Asa Lacy was probably the pick not Walker. I do think Noble-Teel will be interesting to look back on in 4 years but hard to criticize today.

Baseball is hard.

Given how rare young catching is I believe you had to go with Teel over Noble. Teel can run, hit and defend. ACC Player of the year that put up extraordinary stats his junior year. First round pitchers are totally hit or miss, failing more often than succeeding.

[fish16]

Given how rare young catching is I believe you had to go with Teel over Noble. Teel can run, hit and defend. ACC Player of the year that put up extraordinary stats his junior year. First round pitchers are totally hit or miss, failing more often than succeeding.

That is the story of literally every single draft pick in baseball.

[fish16]

one thing i hope of the new guy is that they utilize platoons more like the rays do to try to get the most out of a position as opposed to the most out of 1 player. The rays constantly have a team of low profile guys who they use to their strengths and dont try to make them be more than they are. Sanchez should not be playing against lefties almost ever. He can be Joc Pederson light.

Moves like that and utilizing guys to their strengths and not forcing them to do things they clearly arent good at is how you can make up some of the payroll differences in the margins. The rays obviously are great at developing talent, but another major way they make up for payroll differences is by utilizing guys to their strengths and thinking of positions in terms of aggregate production as opposed to what can 1 guy produce on an every day basis.

[lou]

Given how rare young catching is I believe you had to go with Teel over Noble. Teel can run, hit and defend. ACC Player of the year that put up extraordinary stats his junior year. First round pitchers are totally hit or miss, failing more often than succeeding.

I hear you but I think there is a major counterpoint with roboumps are coming and that’s going to upend catcher value. So do you need a guy who can frame or not? I think it’s a very big concern (at least for me) when we’re talking your premium first round pick.

[lou]

I saw a report Milwaukee is going to move everyone. It made me think Yelich is making 5/$136.5. Adames is going to make 1/$11-12m next year and would probably sign an extension around 6/$125-140m right now. That would be ages 28-33.

Another submission in the long line of a potential smart payroll dump, if you can get Yelich to waive his no trade for this new administration, you can make a surplus value argument this lines up. This is a $100m+ salary dump for Milwaukee which they’d love I imagine and I doubt any team in baseball would take on Yelich money (who is still good, over 6 WAR last two seasons with elite hard hit rates. They just on the ground a lot).

Yelich, Adames

Cappe/Berry, Fulton/Miller, FV40 18 year old, FV40 RP arm, and the kicker ——-> Bell and Garcia as salary deflection ($45m). Milwaukee can then trade Bell for another prospect and get out of more money. Maybe the Milwaukee water fixes Garcia enough. They do save $100m here over years and get out of Yelich which is the pitch idea

This is $96m in 2024 and wouldn’t scale over $120m in 2025 (+Sandy so they’d have a SP to trade theoretically).

_____, Fortes
Arraez
Edwards, Hampson
Adames
Burger, Berti
Yelich, DLC
Jazz, ______
Sanchez

Luzardo, Garrett, Eury, Cabrera, Rogers, ____
Scott, Puk, Nardi, Okert, Weathers
Chargois, Brazoban/Soriano/Hoeing/Maldonado
(+ Max and Bender if they get healthy)

That would be fun. An innings eater, a lefty hitting OF (could be Burdick or even Amaya who is better on lefties and take the defense, etc.), and then trade for the catcher upgrade and that’s a good team on paper. Can probably do it under $110m. I like that team a lot if it’s Jansen, really any bat, and a suitable $6-8m one year arm aka Cueto but get something out of the guy.

Just a fun idea. I know Bruce will fail us however

[lou]

one thing i hope of the new guy is that they utilize platoons more like the rays do to try to get the most out of a position as opposed to the most out of 1 player. The rays constantly have a team of low profile guys who they use to their strengths and dont try to make them be more than they are. Sanchez should not be playing against lefties almost ever. He can be Joc Pederson light.

Moves like that and utilizing guys to their strengths and not forcing them to do things they clearly arent good at is how you can make up some of the payroll differences in the margins. The rays obviously are great at developing talent, but another major way they make up for payroll differences is by utilizing guys to their strengths and thinking of positions in terms of aggregate production as opposed to what can 1 guy produce on an every day basis.

Yep. Taylor and Bader are screaming here for the OF. They would need guys at C and SS who hit right handed pitching so those are frankly just everyday starting players though.

[Lee Stone]

I saw a report Milwaukee is going to move everyone. It made me think Yelich is making 5/$136.5. Adames is going to make 1/$11-12m next year and would probably sign an extension around 6/$125-140m right now. That would be ages 28-33.

Another submission in the long line of a potential smart payroll dump, if you can get Yelich to waive his no trade for this new administration, you can make a surplus value argument this lines up. This is a $100m+ salary dump for Milwaukee which they’d love I imagine and I doubt any team in baseball would take on Yelich money (who is still good, over 6 WAR last two seasons with elite hard hit rates. They just on the ground a lot).

Yelich, Adames

Cappe/Berry, Fulton/Miller, FV40 18 year old, FV40 RP arm, and the kicker ——-> Bell and Garcia as salary deflection ($45m). Milwaukee can then trade Bell for another prospect and get out of more money. Maybe the Milwaukee water fixes Garcia enough. They do save $100m here over years and get out of Yelich which is the pitch idea

This is $96m in 2024 and wouldn’t scale over $120m in 2025 (+Sandy so they’d have a SP to trade theoretically).

_____, Fortes
Arraez
Edwards, Hampson
Adames
Burger, Berti
Yelich, DLC
Jazz, ______
Sanchez

Luzardo, Garrett, Eury, Cabrera, Rogers, ____
Scott, Puk, Nardi, Okert, Weathers
Chargois, Brazoban/Soriano/Hoeing/Maldonado
(+ Max and Bender if they get healthy)

That would be fun. An innings eater, a lefty hitting OF (could be Burdick or even Amaya who is better on lefties and take the defense, etc.), and then trade for the catcher upgrade and that’s a good team on paper. Can probably do it under $110m. I like that team a lot if it’s Jansen, really any bat, and a suitable $6-8m one year arm aka Cueto but get something out of the guy.

Just a fun idea. I know Bruce will fail us however

I don't feel that Bruce has failed us at all - with the exception of who he has hired to make all the baseball decisions. Moneywise, they have misappropriated all his free agent money on Garcia, Segura, Cueto, Barnes, etc.

[rmc523]

Yep. Taylor and Bader are screaming here for the OF. They would need guys at C and SS who hit right handed pitching so those are frankly just everyday starting players though.

I went to high school with Taylor - so he might be willing to take a slightly lesser deal to come to his hometown team.

[Nick]

I don't feel that Bruce has failed us at all - with the exception of who he has hired to make all the baseball decisions. Moneywise, they have misappropriated all his free agent money on Garcia, Segura, Cueto, Barnes, etc.

Translation: Bruce hasn't failed us. He's only failed in all the most important ways.

[rmc523]

Translation: Bruce hasn't failed us. He's only failed in all the most important ways.

To be fair, he doesn't seem to be directly involved in signings like Loria was, so if he leaves it up to his baseball people, signings are on them, and all of them are now gone.

[Nick]

To be fair, he doesn't seem to be directly involved in signings like Loria was, so if he leaves it up to his baseball people, signings are on them, and all of them are now gone.

It all comes down to lack of spending, (which I think the point Lee was trying to make is that Sherman has spent the right amount of money, which is a take I don't think any other fan in the history of sports has had. I think if you talked to Dodger and Yankees fans they'd still want their team to spend more money.) The lack of spending puts us out of the race for the top players and puts us in a bracket where the chances of ending up with a Garcia or Segura is much higher, it's just the way Free Agency works.

[rmc523]

It all comes down to lack of spending, (which I think the point Lee was trying to make is that Sherman has spent the right amount of money, which is a take I don't think any other fan in the history of sports has had. I think if you talked to Dodger and Yankees fans they'd still want their team to spend more money.) The lack of spending puts us out of the race for the top players and puts us in a bracket where the chances of ending up with a Garcia or Segura is much higher, it's just the way Free Agency works.

Yeah, I suppose that makes sense.

BUT - the Rays usually do pretty good with their targeted lower-figure FA signings - ours always seem to immediately turn into a dumpster fire (even if the player had a good track record), so hopefully this is rectified.

[lou]

It all comes down to lack of spending, (which I think the point Lee was trying to make is that Sherman has spent the right amount of money, which is a take I don't think any other fan in the history of sports has had. I think if you talked to Dodger and Yankees fans they'd still want their team to spend more money.) The lack of spending puts us out of the race for the top players and puts us in a bracket where the chances of ending up with a Garcia or Segura is much higher, it's just the way Free Agency works.

Yep. I can’t get behind that take now either.

I don’t blame Bruce for scorching earth the payroll the first few years, and while some of these deals may backfire, there is no way you can tell me Correa, Turner, Xander, Swanson, or Nimmo shouldn’t be on this team on top of everything else. It’s the Rangers situation - sign Seager and Semien a year early and look what happens to team culture. They could have signed Swanson as the cheapest SS of the four (and not signed Segura) and only have been 22nd in payroll last year. Swanson had a 4.9 WAR season last year and has a huge floor with the defense. Maybe the Phillies series is a home one if they had just him.

So this now goes to this year, will he spend $110-120m coming off a miracle playoff appearance? Team payroll is probably at $86m and they need a C, SS, OF, and SP. This should be very doable even with only having a farm to handle 1-2 big trades. I think a $140m Marlins team would be scary AF and if he were to go for it for a 4 year window. Thats not a lot to ask for IMO after a 5+ year cycle of doing not much.