2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Our new PoBo was on 940 AM about 10 minutes ago

my takeaway:

Super stoked he’s in charge and not Kim but don’t expect Briuce to spend in 2024.

What do we think they spend. This is roughly $90m

Stallings, Fortes
Arraez, Bell
Edwards, Hampson
Berti, Amaya
Burger
DLC, Garcia
Jazz
Sanchez

Luzardo, Eury, Garrett
Cabrera, Rogers, Weathers
Chaegois, Brazoban, Soriano
Scott, Puk, Nardi, Okert

AAA - Bender (hits arb so will cost minimum will he finishes rehab)

DL - Sandy

Dead - Cueto, Barnes


Kick Stallings and Garcia off the team, trade Okert, and option Amaya and Soriano and that moves to say $84m to get a C, SS, OF/CF, SP, and RHP-RP. Which I think we’d all agree is probably the minimum needed here. I think if those five spots can get to 8+ WAR (ideally 12+) they’ll have a fighting chance and be relevant at the deadline where Max may be a huge incoming piece on top of this.

[fish16]

I don’t see why Meyer would need to be a mid season addition. He had tommy John surgery in what, late July or august of last year? Why would he need 2 full years? He was throwing in august and September, he should be ready for opening day. I think he plays an important role next year. I have no idea how they replace sandy because sandys ability to eat innings is unparalleled in almost all of baseball let alone in our organization, but i think Meyer plays a role there. I think he starts from opening day in a multi inning relief role and builds up to a starting role as the year goes on

[fish16]

I think ryu can make some sense on a 1 year deal for pitching depth. That’s the level of free agent that is actually realistic for us. We aren’t signing the big names

[lou]

I don’t see why Meyer would need to be a mid season addition. He had tommy John surgery in what, late July or august of last year? Why would he need 2 full years? He was throwing in august and September, he should be ready for opening day. I think he plays an important role next year. I have no idea how they replace sandy because sandys ability to eat innings is unparalleled in almost all of baseball let alone in our organization, but i think Meyer plays a role there. I think he starts from opening day in a multi inning relief role and builds up to a starting role as the year goes on

He hasn’t pitched in competitive games in a year and a half and was just promoted to MLB level before getting hurt. There is going to be some rust and they are going to want to build him up in AAA for a bit. Maybe he comes out as a prodigy in spring training and things change for him quickly, but I imagine he needs some time. Bender too. They aren’t machines to just immediately be back to form you know. Also, keeping Max down until July gets them a year of service time. You can’t tell me a guy from Tampa is going to do things differently than Kim here and not preserve that year for a top 5 pick. The service time numbers are updated and Eury ended up with .113 days. Which is a safe buffer out of super2 land. This is just the nature of the game. Ill be surprised if Max is up more than 80 days is what I am saying.

But if they do call him up immediately and don’t care (which I agree would be great) I am very enthused by your comment of him starting in a multi inning relief role and building him up. That’s the Johan Santana plan. They should do that for sure if he is deemed ready. He probably has a 110 IP max so they could scale him 10-15-15-20-25-25 innings per month for the season or so.

[Todd]

Thank you for doing gods work here. I am still genuinely perplexed at Todd’s take here too

Jacob Stallings BA while in Pittsburgh was 30 points higher than Jansens for his career.

Likewise for his OBP.

Jansen is an objectively bad hitter. His stats are even worse when you take the 50 or so games he played in Buffalo.

He has one tool and it's power. He is a garbage hitter outside of that.

He isn't bad defensively but he isn't as good as Stallings or Fortes.

His one positive is power. He is shit outside of that.

Wasting prospects on what is essentially Jacob Stallings part 2 would be asinine(Stallings better defensively, Jansen a bit more power but not enough to make it worthwile).

You have to you know, look a bit deeper at the stats. Yes his OPS is high. It is literally all driven by his SLG.

He is a garbage player.

[fish16]

If only power was important in todays baseball and something that we lacked. Jacob stallings was a shit slap hitter. Jansen has been a stud level hitting catcher for 3 straight years.

[lou]

Jacob Stallings BA while in Pittsburgh was 30 points higher than Jansens for his career.

Likewise for his OBP.

Jansen is an objectively bad hitter. His stats are even worse when you take the 50 or so games he played in Buffalo.

He has one tool and it's power. He is a garbage hitter outside of that.

He isn't bad defensively but he isn't as good as Stallings or Fortes.

His one positive is power. He is shit outside of that.

Wasting prospects on what is essentially Jacob Stallings part 2 would be asinine(Stallings better defensively, Jansen a bit more power but not enough to make it worthwile).

You have to you know, look a bit deeper at the stats. Yes his OPS is high. It is literally all driven by his SLG.

He is a garbage player.

Their OBP is effectively equal for their careers (.04 difference). Jansen slugs 100 points higher and using his last three years, it’s around 150 points higher. The slugging is very impressive and total bases count to production?

Jansen had 66 PA at Sahlen field and batted .255/.369/.527 with 4 home runs in 2020, played another 12 PA there in 2021 and went 5/12. 78 PA only of yes very good .900+ OPS production. I’m not sure this is skewing the bottom line much here among his career 1380 PA though. His numbers were better in 2022 and 2023 versus 2020 and 2021 never playing there to note.

I’m not trying to be argumentative here, I genuinely want to know why you hate this guy so much because you’re respectfully not conveying a strong position when you describe him. Big picture, are you valuing OBP 2x the slugging, i.e. how Oakland did during the Beane era where they weighted OBP as more valuable than slugging, so you just don’t like these .310 OBP guys with low averages? It’s an expectation that the bottom drops out quickly as they aren’t great contact hitters and those guys bottom drop out more quickly? Especially for catchers around 30+ who historically fall apart?

I see a competent defender with top 10 power at his position with a very OK OBP (which is top 30 at the position). He’s also a top 5 base runner at the position the last two seasons. This is a top 15 or higher player at the position right now in MLB based on what he’s done. Maybe he falls apart, but he turns 29 in April so he’s not that old yet with relatively low mileage. You could do a lot worse. Stallings is a lot worse?

[rmc523]

MLBTR is reporting we're interested in bringing Soler back on a multi-year deal.

[Todd]

Their OBP is effectively equal for their careers (.04 difference). Jansen slugs 100 points higher and using his last three years, it’s around 150 points higher. The slugging is very impressive and total bases count to production?

Jansen had 66 PA at Sahlen field and batted .255/.369/.527 with 4 home runs in 2020, played another 12 PA there in 2021 and went 5/12. 78 PA only of yes very good .900+ OPS production. I’m not sure this is skewing the bottom line much here among his career 1380 PA though. His numbers were better in 2022 and 2023 versus 2020 and 2021 never playing there to note.

I’m not trying to be argumentative here, I genuinely want to know why you hate this guy so much because you’re respectfully not conveying a strong position when you describe him. Big picture, are you valuing OBP 2x the slugging, i.e. how Oakland did during the Beane era where they weighted OBP as more valuable than slugging, so you just don’t like these .310 OBP guys with low averages? It’s an expectation that the bottom drops out quickly as they aren’t great contact hitters and those guys bottom drop out more quickly? Especially for catchers around 30+ who historically fall apart?

I see a competent defender with top 10 power at his position with a very OK OBP (which is top 30 at the position). He’s also a top 5 base runner at the position the last two seasons. This is a top 15 or higher player at the position right now in MLB based on what he’s done. Maybe he falls apart, but he turns 29 in April so he’s not that old yet with relatively low mileage. You could do a lot worse. Stallings is a lot worse?

You are having to add in Stallings time in Miami to bring his stats down.

Again, Stallings BA and OBP were 30 points higher in his time in Pittsburgh than Jansens.
Jansen has one skill and it's decent power. He is an objectively bad hitter, even for a catcher.
If you take a guy whose entire offensive value is from his right handed power and has no upside in any other aspect of his game and place him in a park that is notoriously hard on RH hitters, thereby negating the one positive aspect of his game, you are not smartly building the roster.
Jacob Stallings, value wise, was essentially the same player as Jansen when we traded for him(Jansen more power but a worse offensive player in every other aspect; Stallings much better defensively).
We have limited prospect capital. We need to use it wisely.
Using what we have on a catcher we know will be bad because the one decent part of his game doesn't play in this ballpark, repeating the mistake of trading for Stallings, would be moronic.

[Nick]

If Stallings had continued his Pittsburgh numbers here in Miami that trade would've been a huge win. Instead he went in the tubes. Stallings had a less than 800 ABs to his name at that time and was 2 years older than Jansen is now. Jansen's got about a full season of ABs above that total right now so you have to feel a little better about Jansen's stats being more luck-proof, plus you can't really luck into power.

Jansen is clearly a superior player to both versions of Stallings, the pretty good Pirates catcher, and the shit-ass Marlins version. Is he a sure thing? No, but pickings are slim at the catcher position.

[lou]

You are having to add in Stallings time in Miami to bring his stats down.

Again, Stallings BA and OBP were 30 points higher in his time in Pittsburgh than Jansens.
Jansen has one skill and it's decent power. He is an objectively bad hitter, even for a catcher.
If you take a guy whose entire offensive value is from his right handed power and has no upside in any other aspect of his game and place him in a park that is notoriously hard on RH hitters, thereby negating the one positive aspect of his game, you are not smartly building the roster.
Jacob Stallings, value wise, was essentially the same player as Jansen when we traded for him(Jansen more power but a worse offensive player in every other aspect; Stallings much better defensively).
We have limited prospect capital. We need to use it wisely.
Using what we have on a catcher we know will be bad because the one decent part of his game doesn't play in this ballpark, repeating the mistake of trading for Stallings, would be moronic.

I mean Pittsburgh Stallings was awesome and it was a good trade on paper. We all liked it. NYY fans were pissed because they wanted him - especially at that price. I’m not sure why this is relevant here though. It was a good trade thought-process wise but obviously fell beyond flat in its face.Stallings sucking has no bearing on Jansen now.

Jansen’s home/road HR for career are 33/32. He has a few more PA away so the home rate is actually a bit better. I don’t think we’ll see a total power evaporation based on this. I’ve been digging to find something bad to say about him (besides avg/historically low babips suggesting weak contact), and it’s his xSLUG was 50 points lower than actual last year. Basically, one can argue he was a .220/.305/.415 kind of hitter. Or let’s just say DLC as that’s effectively his slash with more AVG less BB. If that’s the floor with a positive defensive catcher and good base runner for the position, I still like him assuming Jays price not crazy. TBH who knows if he is available. I think they could be persuaded with a good arm.

Also want to mention here Jansen is a better hitter against RHP - .783 OPS in 23, .870(!) in 22, .864(!) in 21, and career .764. That’s a 60+ career advantage versus lefties. Fortes had an .858 OPS vs LHP last year and is a career .770 vs LHP. I mean sign me up for this. Those two could be the top hitting catcher combo in the league - by a lot - if Jansen plays to his 21/22 RHP splits and Fortes his 23 splits (last year a .794 team OPS at catcher was tops, 7th was a .735 OPS so these guys would likely be a top 6 offensive combo as a floor).

I think we can just agree to disagree here. I think he’s perfect for this team who needs offense and has a lefty killer who can play some defense in Fortes to help him. Run game control may not be great, but who has a good run game control these days and I’d take a bet on the offense and assume the defense is fine.


I also want to quibble on limited trade inventory to get guys. Yes I agree sort of they don’t have inventory to make more than two “big” trades absent doing something unusual (Luzardo for 4 guys ala pulling a Lee, etc.). But Big picture, I think the Marlins are set for years at 1B, 2B, 3B, CF, RF, and importantly, the entire pitching staff except needing 1 elite RHP pen arm (but maybe that is Meyer or Cabrera trickles down, etc.). They also have money - even at Bruce’s payrolls - to get some help (for instance short term OF, innings eaters, and RP who are suitable for 1-2 year deals). If we’re weighing whether the Marlins can make some trades or have the players to do it, the literal only thing I think they should do via a trade market is get a C and SS. This is a long way of saying - they have the juice to do that if we’re just focusing on 2 trades and hate the FA options so their lack of huge farm depth is fine. Adames and Jansen each have 1 year of control and both those teams could use some pitching, especially Milwaukee. If Bruce would resign them, could be a good situation. Also here - our new POBO was with Adames in Tampa so of all the people to trust about potentially evaluating him, it’s this guy. Also want to footnote here I’m not going to be surprised if the Marlins get rumored for Kiermaier and they go Jazz, KK, and Sanchez against righties and say Hampson/Edwards, Jazz/KK, and DLC versus lefties. A Kiermaier, Adames, and Jansen offseason would be interesting. So would Carlson, Edman, and Knizner as I know you like the STL guys, but this seems like the path and I think they have the arms to get a collection of those guys. Hays, Ortiz, McCann. Or Vazquez, Kepler, and Farmer/Polanco. There are some options that won’t break the SP bank here.

[Lee Stone]

SS/3B/OF Casey Abrams
OF Jordan Walker
C Kyle Teel
SS Brooks Lee (Taken right behind Noble Meyer and looking very much like another Dansby Swanson).

These are all guys that should have been drafted and would have filled all the holes.

[rmc523]

SS/3B/OF Casey Abrams
OF Jordan Walker
C Kyle Teel
SS Brooks Lee (Taken right behind Noble Meyer and looking very much like another Dansby Swanson).

These are all guys that should have been drafted and would have filled all the holes.

That's nice, but won't help us now/going forward.

No point in dredging up poor drafting which is the problem Bruce is trying to fix.

[Namaste]

SS/3B/OF Casey Abrams
OF Jordan Walker
C Kyle Teel
SS Brooks Lee (Taken right behind Noble Meyer and looking very much like another Dansby Swanson).

These are all guys that should have been drafted and would have filled all the holes.

Jordan Walker had a 0.2 WAR in 465 PA’s.

Brooks Lee might turn out great but you can never have enough pitching so I don’t fault them for taking Noble.

[Todd]

and DLC versus lefties.

Bryan De La Cruz is a much better hitter against RHP.