2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Jansen has 4.6 WAR his last 549 PA with a .240 BABIP. 32 HR, under 20% whiffs.

I mean if any player - any player - on the Marlins drops a 4 WAR in a full time role next year I’m going to be thrilled. Arraez and Luzardo didn’t even get there.

I’m perplexed how this is marginal to Nick Fortes playing at a .4 season rate in 2023. I have nothing here. Am I missing something here this glaring?

[Todd]

Because his value is literally all tied to his power. His avg and OBP outside of Toronto/Buffalo for his career is .216/.299. He is an objectively horrid hitter who has some power and isn't particularly good defensively. If you take that player and put him in Miami you are taking a bad hitter and taking away the one good aspect of his game.

He is not a player you waste prospects on. He is shit.

You are being willfully obtuse because you want to think you are the smartest guy in the room even though you were saying this same exact bullshit about Stallings(complete with *HE HAD THIS MUCH WAR OVER SO MANY GAMES WHAT AM I MISSING??!!*) and being a condescending douche to anyone who dares question your persistent nonsense and strawmanning everything they say. You have brought up Gary fucking Sanchez in every post as some weird gotcha even though you are literally the only person who has mentioned him. BTW Stallings had 3.5 WAR over his last 570 PA before coming to Miami. Stallings value was tied entirely to his defense. Jansens to his power. Stallings was actually a better hitter than Jansen outside of SLG before coming to Miami(career .254/.331/.370 pre Miami v Jansens .224/.308/.445). Jansen is a shit hitter who just happens to hit the ball hard. The issue is he rarely does that. And Miami is hard on power #s to begin with. Now imagine a guy who wishes he made contact at the rate of Jason fucking Stallings.

Why don't you type out another 9 paragraph thing complete with unrealistic payroll projections and projected statlines and constantly mentioning Jayson fucking Werth signing with the Nationals like anyone gives a fuck.

[Namaste]

Because his value is literally all tied to his power. His avg and OBP outside of Toronto/Buffalo for his career is .216/.299. He is an objectively horrid hitter who has some power and isn't particularly good defensively. If you take that player and put him in Miami you are taking a bad hitter and taking away the one good aspect of his game.

He is not a player you waste prospects on. He is shit.

You are being willfully obtuse because you want to think you are the smartest guy in the room even though you were saying this same exact bullshit about Stallings(complete with *HE HAD THIS MUCH WAR OVER SO MANY GAMES WHAT AM I MISSING??!!*) and being a condescending douche to anyone who dares question your persistent nonsense and strawmanning everything they say. You have brought up Gary fucking Sanchez in every post as some weird gotcha even though you are literally the only person who has mentioned him. BTW Stallings had 3.5 WAR over his last 570 PA before coming to Miami. Stallings value was tied entirely to his defense. Jansens to his power. Stallings was actually a better hitter than Jansen outside of SLG before coming to Miami(career .254/.331/.370 pre Miami v Jansens .224/.308/.445). Jansen is a shit hitter who just happens to hit the ball hard. The issue is he rarely does that. And Miami is hard on power #s to begin with. Now imagine a guy who wishes he made contact at the rate of Jason fucking Stallings.

Why don't you type out another 9 paragraph thing complete with unrealistic payroll projections and projected statlines and constantly mentioning Jayson fucking Werth signing with the Nationals like anyone gives a fuck.

I’m pretty sure lou wasn’t lobbing personal attacks at you. No need to go there at this small community.

[lou]

Because his value is literally all tied to his power. His avg and OBP outside of Toronto/Buffalo for his career is .216/.299. He is an objectively horrid hitter who has some power and isn't particularly good defensively. If you take that player and put him in Miami you are taking a bad hitter and taking away the one good aspect of his game.

He is not a player you waste prospects on. He is shit.

You are being willfully obtuse because you want to think you are the smartest guy in the room even though you were saying this same exact bullshit about Stallings(complete with *HE HAD THIS MUCH WAR OVER SO MANY GAMES WHAT AM I MISSING??!!*) and being a condescending douche to anyone who dares question your persistent nonsense and strawmanning everything they say. You have brought up Gary fucking Sanchez in every post as some weird gotcha even though you are literally the only person who has mentioned him. BTW Stallings had 3.5 WAR over his last 570 PA before coming to Miami. Stallings value was tied entirely to his defense. Jansens to his power. Stallings was actually a better hitter than Jansen outside of SLG before coming to Miami(career .254/.331/.370 pre Miami v Jansens .224/.308/.445). Jansen is a shit hitter who just happens to hit the ball hard. The issue is he rarely does that. And Miami is hard on power #s to begin with. Now imagine a guy who wishes he made contact at the rate of Jason fucking Stallings.

Why don't you type out another 9 paragraph thing complete with unrealistic payroll projections and projected statlines and constantly mentioning Jayson fucking Werth signing with the Nationals like anyone gives a fuck.

I don’t even know how to respond this is so out of line. I genuinely have no idea why you think he is close to Nick Fortes when he’s been generally excellent for four seasons. The numbers disagree with you so I am asking what am I missing, because his away numbers are fine regardless of what you’re typing. I can see health, but that’s about it. So it has to be something else. And I bring up Gary because two things are true (1) the marlins need a catcher and (2) I don’t know who is a better FA idea than Gary so I don’t know what they can do, so they will need to take a risk on some guy like Jansen or whoever because there is not a perfect and obvious option. Sorry this is confrontational! I’m not being the asshole here and I don’t deserve this.

[Todd]

I've literally pointed out multiple times.

He has not been "excellent". He is an objectively horrid hitter who plays meh defense. Again, he fell well short of Jacob Stallings as a hitter.

His game has one positive and that's that he has a bit of power. He is awful outside of that.

And when a player has one thing they do well you don't bring them to a stadium where the only thing they do well is basically entirely negated.

Jansen would be a massive waste of time and prospect capital.

I have no issue taking a chance on a player. You just shouldn't do it for a player you know will be shit.

And the reason I am getting angry is we went through all of this with Stallings where people were shouting out the red flags and you were consistently a condescending asshole. You are literally repeating your defense of that move almost verbatim.

[fish16]

I would be ok with Jansen, but I sure could do without the consistent references to war per 600 at bats as opposed to talking about actual tools and what a guy brings to the table. The reason I shit on Lou all the time because he is a slave to war. It is a helpful measuring stick, but the overreliance on it as the basis for every fucking analysis is nauseating. It’s ok to actually analyze individual aspects of people’s games and form an overall opinion as opposed to looking for a shortcut that tries to define a players entire game with 1 number. I’ve said it before, not all war is made equal, and defensive weighting of war is not good.

I said it with stallings, and it remains true. Stop being a slave to WAR, and do some real analysis.

[Namaste]

99% of the forum thinks Jansen would be a fairly substantial upgrade over Fortes

[lou]

I've literally pointed out multiple times.

He has not been "excellent". He is an objectively horrid hitter who plays meh defense. Again, he fell well short of Jacob Stallings as a hitter.

His game has one positive and that's that he has a bit of power. He is awful outside of that.

And when a player has one thing they do well you don't bring them to a stadium where the only thing they do well is basically entirely negated.

Jansen would be a massive waste of time and prospect capital.

I have no issue taking a chance on a player. You just shouldn't do it for a player you know will be shit.

And the reason I am getting angry is we went through all of this with Stallings where people were shouting out the red flags and you were consistently a condescending asshole. You are literally repeating your defense of that move almost verbatim.

Pointed out what exactly? Because “away” Jansen is a top 15 hitting catcher in baseball and combined with a pretty solid defensive catcher is a real solid player with top 15 floor at his position based on his last 4 years? Which is what the stats say? Look, if you want to say let’s not acquire any catcher getting over 30 as they historically don’t work out and he has an injury history, sure? That is a risk I think is worth it as the catcher situation in MLB is so dire (again what else is a good idea??? This is really important as what is available? Fortes is not plan A IMO?), but if you don’t want to do it cool? But I don’t know Jansen will be shit, neither do you and the numbers don’t back that up as if you can hit even .650 and play good enough defense, you’re not a bad starter at catcher these days. Let’s not revise history either because everyone approved the Stallings trade and didn’t expect his defense to crater as bad as it did. The Miami Herald found a scout that said he was the best defensive catcher he’s seen since Johnny Bench. That’s insane? Everyone was into the move for that price and Yankees fans were flipped out mad they didn’t get him for so cheap in prospects. So it didn’t work out? Shit happens. Let’s not devolve into whataboutisms also.

I have no idea why you are so mad here at this or me but I don’t see what you are seeing with Jansen unless it’s health (or a cost prohibitive trade price if it is sky high etc).

[lou]

I would be ok with Jansen, but I sure could do without the consistent references to war per 600 at bats as opposed to talking about actual tools and what a guy brings to the table. The reason I shit on Lou all the time because he is a slave to war. It is a helpful measuring stick, but the overreliance on it as the basis for every fucking analysis is nauseating. It’s ok to actually analyze individual aspects of people’s games and form an overall opinion as opposed to looking for a shortcut that tries to define a players entire game with 1 number. I’ve said it before, not all war is made equal, and defensive weighting of war is not good.

I said it with stallings, and it remains true. Stop being a slave to WAR, and do some real analysis.

Are we allowed to look at statcast?

[Namaste]

Are we allowed to look at statcast?

Eye test is primary

WAR and statcast are allowed BUT only when it supports your stance on a particular player

[Lee Stone]

Pointed out what exactly? Because “away” Jansen is a top 15 hitting catcher in baseball and combined with a pretty solid defensive catcher is a real solid player with top 15 floor at his position based on his last 4 years? Which is what the stats say? Look, if you want to say let’s not acquire any catcher getting over 30 as they historically don’t work out and he has an injury history, sure? That is a risk I think is worth it as the catcher situation in MLB is so dire (again what else is a good idea??? This is really important as what is available? Fortes is not plan A IMO?), but if you don’t want to do it cool? But I don’t know Jansen will be shit, neither do you and the numbers don’t back that up as if you can hit even .650 and play good enough defense, you’re not a bad starter at catcher these days. Let’s not revise history either because everyone approved the Stallings trade and didn’t expect his defense to crater as bad as it did. The Miami Herald found a scout that said he was the best defensive catcher he’s seen since Johnny Bench. That’s insane? Everyone was into the move for that price and Yankees fans were flipped out mad they didn’t get him for so cheap in prospects. So it didn’t work out? Shit happens. Let’s not devolve into whataboutisms also.

I have no idea why you are so mad here at this or me but I don’t see what you are seeing with Jansen unless it’s health (or a cost prohibitive trade price if it is sky high etc).

Given the state of the catcher position, does anyone have a clue as to why the Marlins passed on drafting Teel?

[lou]

Given the state of the catcher position, does anyone have a clue as to why the Marlins passed on drafting Teel?

They liked Noble better and was a similarly rated prospect. Don’t need to overthink the crapshoot of MLB draft.

Also for me two reasons (and this isn’t a defense going through the thought process):

Catcher valuation is going to radically change in MLB with roboumps have to be coming next few years and that aligns with Teel making his MLB debut. How do you evaluate a high end catcher prospect right now knowing a large framing shift may be coming? You may not need the framing soon. But maybe you do?

The Marlins (pre Sandy injury) were pretty much win-now so they need a different catcher right now and likely for a few years. If a cheap organization is devoting resources to the position, maybe they don’t need to double-down with a FA plus their best pick. I do think there is “some” hope with Fortes, Banfield, and Mack so they do have a lot of control years with those guys and can sit on the later two a long time. Basically, I imagine Kim was thinking let’s trade/sign for a MLB vet for a few years this offseason and hope Fortes/Banfield are a fine second/third C for a few years. I can understand the roster construction with them liking Arraez, Jazz, Burger, Sanchez, and an “expensive SS” as the main position core, with solid short term dudes like Berti, Bell, probably Soler on a QO around, and some hope with Fortes/Banfield, Edwards, Amaya, Dane, and maybe DLC hits more. Maybe you don’t need an elite C (even if we want one) if that SS is Adames and Soler is retained, etc., with another big arm coming in. That team would hit with or without a C to get to the deadline.


Hopefully the new FO is given some budget to work with. That’s what it all comes down too.

[lou]

A good RP comp came out - Braves signed Jimenez to a 3/$26m extension. All FA years.

I think this comps quite well with Scott getting a 3/$26-28m extension (2 FA years). Scott’s better so this aligns with him getting a much higher rate for FA years. He might want to bet on himself and try and get a 3/4 year deal with an average value over $12m after 2024, but “RP are volatile” so I’d take the fuck you money if I were him if offered for something like that.

This one will be interesting if they extend him or trade him at a forever high. I hope they don’t just keep him in arbitration as that’s the worst idea.

Baltimore wants to shed some payroll, so maybe using Scott in a package for say…. Hays, Ortiz, Basallo, and McCann could make a lot of sense. The Marlins adding Max or Cabrera or Rogers and maybe someone like Milbrandt to that makes sense for everyone in a 4-3 thing so they get a lot of cheap pitching and clear out payroll. The Marlins could sign a SP to replace the lost arm and the team would look pretty good with a legitimate long term and cheap plan at C and SS all of a sudden. Baltimore needs none of those guys for a long term SP, elite RP, and payroll. Would be interesting if nothing more. All goes to Bruce spending money ultimately.

[Namaste]

Soler is officially a FA. Not surprising

[fish16]

Anyone else having problems with the way this website is displayed on a desktop? Phone is working fine but on a laptop or computer it’s awful