2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[Todd]

Danny Jansen outside of Toronto(and Buffalo) is a career .216/.299/.408 hitter with a 91 OPS+. .214/.283/.462 with an 88 OPS+ outside Toronto this past season. His defense is decent but unspectacular.

If that is what you consider a catcher target you might as well stick with Fortes.

[Nick]

Danny Jansen outside of Toronto(and Buffalo) is a career .216/.299/.408 hitter with a 91 OPS+. .214/.283/.462 with an 88 OPS+ outside Toronto this past season. His defense is decent but unspectacular.

If that is what you consider a catcher target you might as well stick with Fortes.

I liked when you posted this the first time around.

[Todd]

I didn't remember it to be fair.

I am a bit brain foggy from an antidepressant change.

I apologize.

[lou]

“Berry was atrocious, which comes on the heels of an atrocious first full pro season. The Marlins took him sixth overall in 2022, even though he lacked a position, but he just didn’t hit at all this year, with a .233/.284/.388 line between High A and Double A. He’s playing third base in the AFL, and he doesn’t belong anywhere near the position, lacking the hands or range for it. While he’s hitting for more average in the AFL, it’s a lot of soft contact, with just one hard-hit ball in the three games I saw (a single at 108 mph).”

Keith Law - https://theathletic.com/4967319/2023...edemann/?amp=1

[lou]

Danny Jansen outside of Toronto(and Buffalo) is a career .216/.299/.408 hitter with a 91 OPS+. .214/.283/.462 with an 88 OPS+ outside Toronto this past season. His defense is decent but unspectacular.

If that is what you consider a catcher target you might as well stick with Fortes.

I’d take a .750 OPS to the bank at catcher?

He’s the 10th most productive catcher of the last 4 seasons combined in only 901 PA. Averages well over a 3 WAR per 600 PA. Health would be the only concern for me.

I would love some names of realistic alternatives, and I would say Garver and G. Sanchez are probably not those guys as Garver can’t play defense and Sanchez is well, Sanchez. Grandal is old and the defense is gone. Guys like Hedges can’t hit either. What is the best name here that’s a substantial upgrade?

[Todd]

You aren't going to get a .750 OPS catcher. You are going to get an average defensive catcher whose offense is barely above Nick Fortes.

Jansen is absolute garbage away from Toronto(and Buffalo). And LoanDepot is a notoriously pitcher friendly park.

It would be a horrid signing.

I am not listing alternatives. I am saying if he is your best option you might as well stick with what you have. He is literally one of the players with the most egregious home and away splits(outside of Colorado).

[lou]

You aren't going to get a .750 OPS catcher. You are going to get an average defensive catcher whose offense is barely above Nick Fortes.

Jansen is absolute garbage away from Toronto(and Buffalo). And LoanDepot is a notoriously pitcher friendly park.

It would be a horrid signing.

I am not listing alternatives. I am saying if he is your best option you might as well stick with what you have. He is literally one of the players with the most egregious home and away splits(outside of Colorado).

2021-2023

Home .244/.345/.488 (.833)
Away .214/.283/.462 (.745)

This isn’t egregious. Arraez had a bigger home/away split in 2023 (96 OPS points). Thats the first guy I looked at also so please let’s not do a deep dive. You’re likely getting over a .750 OPS catcher. He’s going to continue hitting random bombs, and all of this is generally circumstantial believing home/away splits translate specifically as he was a better hitter on the road in 2022. He’d probably end up at a .775+ OPS hitter just as he has the last three seasons basically. With room to grow because he has been hurt here and there with low BABIPs. Importantly, this kind of offensive profile is well above average for a catcher and especially one thats a pretty solid defender which is rare to get both of those in one package. He’s a top 15 catcher in MLB as an absolute floor right now. They just have Kirk and payroll issues so maybe they’d move on.

If you think Danny Jansen is close to Nick Fortes after what Nick did last year, that is insane though. This team needs a catcher and there just are not options. Jansen is good. Doesn’t have to be a world beater top 5 option to be a substantial upgrade for this team.

The cheaper option is Gary Sanchez who they already passed on. I don’t know what else they can do here besides roll the dice with him.

[Nick]

Our Catchers have had sub .600 OPS over the past 2 years. You take those Jansen Away stats every single time.

[Namaste]

“Berry was atrocious, which comes on the heels of an atrocious first full pro season. The Marlins took him sixth overall in 2022, even though he lacked a position, but he just didn’t hit at all this year, with a .233/.284/.388 line between High A and Double A. He’s playing third base in the AFL, and he doesn’t belong anywhere near the position, lacking the hands or range for it. While he’s hitting for more average in the AFL, it’s a lot of soft contact, with just one hard-hit ball in the three games I saw (a single at 108 mph).”

Keith Law - https://theathletic.com/4967319/2023...edemann/?amp=1

Nice work, Kim.

[Todd]

2021-2023

Home .244/.345/.488 (.833)
Away .214/.283/.462 (.745)

This isn’t egregious. Arraez had a bigger home/away split in 2023 (96 OPS points). Thats the first guy I looked at also so please let’s not do a deep dive. You’re likely getting over a .750 OPS catcher. He’s going to continue hitting random bombs, and all of this is generally circumstantial believing home/away splits translate specifically as he was a better hitter on the road in 2022. He’d probably end up at a .775+ OPS hitter just as he has the last three seasons basically. With room to grow because he has been hurt here and there with low BABIPs. Importantly, this kind of offensive profile is well above average for a catcher and especially one thats a pretty solid defender which is rare to get both of those in one package. He’s a top 15 catcher in MLB as an absolute floor right now. They just have Kirk and payroll issues so maybe they’d move on.

If you think Danny Jansen is close to Nick Fortes after what Nick did last year, that is insane though. This team needs a catcher and there just are not options. Jansen is good. Doesn’t have to be a world beater top 5 option to be a substantial upgrade for this team.

The cheaper option is Gary Sanchez who they already passed on. I don’t know what else they can do here besides roll the dice with him.

He's not good though. Away from Toronto he is objectively not good.

He is literally Fortes with more power and worse defense.

Jansen outside of the hitters paradises that were Buffalo and Toronto and moving into the pitchers park that is LoanDepot is likely a borderline replacement level player.

I want to upgrade the position too. I had hopes for Fortes but it's clears he is a backup. But you don't make a move and spend prospect capital just to bring in another old mediocre catcher. Once with Stallings was enough.

[Nick]

He's not good though. Away from Toronto he is objectively not good.

He is literally Fortes with more power and worse defense.

Jansen outside of the hitters paradises that were Buffalo and Toronto and moving into the pitchers park that is LoanDepot is likely a borderline replacement level player.

I want to upgrade the position too. I had hopes for Fortes but it's clears he is a backup. But you don't make a move and spend prospect capital just to bring in another old mediocre catcher. Once with Stallings was enough.

Jansen played 22 games at Buffalo, just stop dood.

[Nick]

According to Statcast, Tortonto is middle of the pack in hitter friendliness.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leade...t-park-factors

[lou]

He's not good though. Away from Toronto he is objectively not good.

He is literally Fortes with more power and worse defense.

Jansen outside of the hitters paradises that were Buffalo and Toronto and moving into the pitchers park that is LoanDepot is likely a borderline replacement level player.

I want to upgrade the position too. I had hopes for Fortes but it's clears he is a backup. But you don't make a move and spend prospect capital just to bring in another old mediocre catcher. Once with Stallings was enough.

Jansen has the 14th highest away OPS of all catchers (.734) since 2020. I don’t think you are appreciating how low the bar is given MLB alternatives and how much RP usage has changed knocking down offense across the board.

If you think health is going to be a problem, I get it. But you’re not convincing anyone with just saying he’s bad outside Toronto when he’s objectively not. He’s a good solid player as a floor absent some radical skill change. He’s not that old with hypothetically lower wear and tear not as a 500 PA starter for years.

Plus, you do need to see what else is out there. McCann? T. Murphy? Sanchez? Just accept billions of SB and go with Garver and Fortes and jettison Soler without a QO to make it happen? They can’t open with just Fortes and need a real plan here. I ask again is Gary Sanchez a better idea?

[Todd]

His avg and OBP outside of Toronto/Buffalo are literally Nick Fortes 2023.

If you move a player whose only positive is power to an extreme pitchers Park you are basically just repeating past mistakes.

Again, not saying you don't upgrade Fortes if you can. Just that the difference between him and Jansen would be marginal at best because the only area he is superior in would be negated playing at LoanDepot.

It would be a waste of prospect capital.

Also NO ONE has advocated for Gary Sanchez. Him also being a bad option doesn't make Danny Jansen a good idea.

Herpes is preferable to being mauled by a pack of hyenas but I don't really want either.

[lou]

His avg and OBP outside of Toronto/Buffalo are literally Nick Fortes 2023.

If you move a player whose only positive is power to an extreme pitchers Park you are basically just repeating past mistakes.

Again, not saying you don't upgrade Fortes if you can. Just that the difference between him and Jansen would be marginal at best because the only area he is superior in would be negated playing at LoanDepot.

It would be a waste of prospect capital.

Also NO ONE has advocated for Gary Sanchez. Him also being a bad option doesn't make Danny Jansen a good idea.

Herpes is preferable to being mauled by a pack of hyenas but I don't really want either.

Are you OK?

Fortes had a .562 OPS this year and career .642 OPS.

Jansen has a .734 away OPS the last 4 seasons

How is a 90-170 point OPS different literally the same? Ignoring that Jansen scales higher at home and Jansen is effectively a .775 OPS hitter the last 3 seasons so it’s likely a larger differential.

I can’t keep responding to this when you aren’t looking at numbers. Fortes had a .2 WAR last year in 323 PA. Jansen had 2 WAR in 301 PA and this is scaled for park factors. These are dramatically different players. What are we missing here?