2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[rmc523]

Well, this years thread appears a bit later than usual because of our (brief) playoff appearance. It was fun to watch meaningful/successful baseball for a change.

But now the work for next year begins!


Here are some of my thoughts....




1) First order will be figuring out GM - I think Kim gets offered a 3-year deal, and accepts:

A) unfinished business here - as much as we joke about the clock starting, this year was her first year of full control, we had success but didn't go all the way, she probably wants to see it through

B) Though she's had some success here this year, she's had 2 bad years, but more importantly, she's also been turned down by every other club she's interviewed for in the past. Yeah, her being in the job now helps in that regard, but it's still something to consider, IMO...



2) Then, we have to figure out Sandy - he'll probably try to rehab, but I fear he'll start opening day and THEN it'll tear, putting the timeline back further than it would be now.



3) Option guys - Soler and Bell - figure out what's going on here with the player options.



4) Other needs:

A) We always need pitching, even before the potential Sandy TJ - get a good vet starter - sadly our innings eater targets never seem to work out. We'll have some guys coming back (Meyer, Rogers, Eury) if not traded, but we'll need help still, as their performance isn't guaranteed either.......and please stop "weekend at Bernie's-ing" Sixto....

B) Shockingly (heavy sarcasm).....3 years later....catcher is an issue - Stallings didn't work, though it was a good move on paper.

C) Shockingly (heavier sarcasm).....3 years later....SS is an issue. It was dumb to not address it last year by signing even Swanson.

D) Bullpen - it'd be nice to get another BP arm - would a guy like Chapman be a good target? He's not as elite as he used to be, but could be an option?



5) Overall thoughts - I'd like to see us figure out some targets that walk a bit more, hit doubles, and run/steal more......we need to be putting guys in motion more. Why we weren't doing that to avoid DPs and just flat out attempting to steal more, I don't know...... with our park, guys that hit a ton of doubles would be perfect.

[Nick]

Off-season goals should be.

1. Figure out Sandy's health, if he needs TJ surgery do it now, if not make sure his arm is ready for 200 innings next year.
2. Big Free Agent signing should be a starting pitcher, someone reliable, to give you a full season of quality innings.
3. Bring back Bell and Soler on no more than 1-2 year contracts.
4. Trade for a SS. (Adames and Joey Ortiz from the Orioles should be the main targets)
5. Upgrade Catcher (doesn't have to be a star just give me a guy with a .650 OPS and plays good defense)
6. Relief pitching, I'm not expecting us to get a closer, but continue to find undervalued guys to get us to our best back of the end guys.

I'd like to see Edwards play somewhere in the winter leagues to play different positions. If he could be comfortable at 2B, 3B, and all 3 OF spots that would really make him valuable for us next year.

[lou]

I'd go

1 - Sherman sells the team. This is actually offseason goal 1-90, but I'll throw out 10 more.

2 - Extensionpalooza - Arraez, Luzardo, Eury, Jazz, and Scott (and if they get guys like Adames or Jansen, them too). I wait on Cabrera, Sanchez, and Puk and see what they do. Garrett and Burger are arbitration players to me as they have tons of control and no need to do it for a softer tosser and who knows if Burger holds up or becomes a Trumbo deadweight in 4 years.

3A - Get a # 4/5 SP or high end bulk reliever if Sandy is presumed healthy, or
3B - Get a # 3 SP if Sandy is not going to be healthy AND/OR one of the other 5 main SP (cough Rogers) is traded for a bat. Surgery ASAP if so for Sandy.

4 - Agree with Nick trade for a SS - Adames or Ortiz are perfect, and I'd add Edman.

5 - Soler qualifying offer OR offered a 2 year deal low $30s. If somehow he turns that all day, great Marlins get the draft capital and can use the money on Pham, Canha, Duvall, or M. Taylor, etc.

6 - Also agree with Nick, a 1 WAR starter at C is a 2 WAR improvement over Stallings. Fortes will be better. If it's Soler + Adames, they don't need Jansen here. If they opt for an Ortiz, probably need a Jansen here for more assured production

7 - Medium or better leverage RHP reliever. Just one of them. I think they should trade any of Scott, Puk, Nardi, or Okert in a 1-1 for right handed reliever equivalent, similar to Floro-Vesia trade. I'm comfortable with Chargois and Brazoban in the back of the pen with Soriano, Hoeing, and Maldonado being the call up righties with importantly, Meyer looming. I think four lefties (pick your 3 above and Weathers), Chargois, Brazoban, a guy for a lefty, and mixing/matching the rest is pretty good and gets them to July easily.

8 - Hampson retained for the bench, along with Berti who isn't traded and Edwards given a role and path to 100+ starts. DLC time in the field cut by at least 50 games.

9 - If Bell somehow opts out, can use that money for someone like Pham, Canha, Duvall, or M. Taylor and push Arraez to 1B. Frankly, we should be rooting for him to opt out and I think they'd get more value out of the money. But totally fine if he stays which is what I expect

10 - Kim extension. She has earned it and its time Bruce gives her $120-140m to work with for team salary if # 1 doesn't happen which it of course won't. That money gets all of the above done + a splurge on a luxury upgrade somewhere that will be exciting.

11 - After Kim's extension, announce her first moves as a DFA of Garcia, a non-tender for Stallings, and rejecting options for Cueto and Barnes. Clear the deck and send a message even if these are all obvious moves.

[fish16]

1. Kim gets an extension.
2. Barnes, Cueto options declined, Wendle sent to japan, Stallings non-tendered, Gurriel and Robertson gone.
3. Trade for Danny Jansen and Swanson using Berti, maybe DLC, and prospects.
4. Arraez to 1b. Edwards to 2b..
5. Sign jordan Montgomery, and if the deal is like Cueto last year, take a flier on Hyun Jin Ryu if Sandy needs TJ.
6. Extensions for Arraez, Scott, Luzardo, and Eury if he is willing.
7. Find a team with a 40 man roster glut like the rays do every year and get another righty reliever from them for cheap.
8. DLC for a righty reliever.
9. Re-sign Soler and/or bell to 2 year 25-30 million deals.
10. Start using some of the kids as the bench bats instead of retread vets like Gurriel. Troy Johnston deserves a shot. Gotta start getting some youth off the bench with some potential.
11. Use rogers and whoever else it takes to get Ortiz.
12- Sign a stop gap 4th OF with some pop.

SP- Eury, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Montgomery with Sandy in the wings in 2025 and garrett traded after next year for another bat.
RP- Meyer used as a multi inning weapon as he gradually gets built back up with a spot in the rotation in mind in 2025 and the ability to step in for an injury in the rotation right away. .

C- Jansen/Fortes
1b- Arraez/Johnston
2b- Edwards
SS- Ortiz
3b- Burger
LF- Soler
CF- Jazz
RF- Sanchez
DH- Bell

Can move Arraez back and forth between 2b and 1b so that he is starting every day, edwards is starting a bunch, but allows Soler and Bell to split DH where they should both likely be primarily anyways.

I dont think that's an enormous payroll quite frankly but lou could probably do the math. Would be a lot more reasonable if garcia wasnt in there but we will either have to eat his contract, keep him on the roster, or if he's traded it's to take on another contract.

[Nick]

Crazy Trade:

To NYY: Garcia + DLC

To MIA: Giancarlo Stanton, Jhony Brito SP, Oswald Peraza SS, Will Warren SP, Ian Hamilton Relief

Basically $69 Million over 4 years for 4 good young players.

[rmc523]

Crazy Trade:

To NYY: Garcia + DLC

To MIA: Giancarlo Stanton, Jhony Brito SP, Oswald Peraza SS, Will Warren SP, Ian Hamilton Relief

Basically $69 Million over 4 years for 4 good young players.

Doesn't he have a no-trade clause? Why would he want to come back?

[emkayseven]

No reason Kim won't be back. Gotta imagine the love is felt on both sides.

Top priority has to be Arraez and Burger extensions, and maybe Jazz, though I fear that ship has sailed.

Crazy to think we just made the playoffs and will likely need 2 SP, C, 1B, SS, LF, and a couple solid bullpen arms. Without a couple nice signings we're looking at an 85-90 loss team IMO.

Also, hi everyone. Stayed away from here so as to not be a jinx during the playoff run.

[rmc523]

No reason Kim won't be back. Gotta imagine the love is felt on both sides.

Top priority has to be Arraez and Burger extensions, and maybe Jazz, though I fear that ship has sailed.

Crazy to think we just made the playoffs and will likely need 2 SP, C, 1B, SS, LF, and a couple solid bullpen arms. Without a couple nice signings we're looking at an 85-90 loss team IMO.

Also, hi everyone. Stayed away from here so as to not be a jinx during the playoff run.

Maybe you reverse jinxed us by NOT showing up! lol

[Todd]

Danny Jansen turns 29 in April, is decent but nothing special defensively, and for his career he has hit .216/.299/.408 outside of Toronto/Buffalo.

I dont know why you like him so much.

[Nick]

Danny Jansen turns 29 in April, is decent but nothing special defensively, and for his career he has hit .216/.299/.408 outside of Toronto/Buffalo.

I dont know why you like him so much.

To be fair those numbers would a be giant upgrade from what we got from our catchers this year.

[lou]

No reason Kim won't be back. Gotta imagine the love is felt on both sides.

Top priority has to be Arraez and Burger extensions, and maybe Jazz, though I fear that ship has sailed.

Crazy to think we just made the playoffs and will likely need 2 SP, C, 1B, SS, LF, and a couple solid bullpen arms. Without a couple nice signings we're looking at an 85-90 loss team IMO.

Also, hi everyone. Stayed away from here so as to not be a jinx during the playoff run.

Burger is controlled ages 28-32 through arbitration. Not sure a buyout for his age 33 and 34 seasons is in order. Inadvertent type for Luzardo there?

They need 1500 PA and 150 innings, or 250 innings if Sandy is hurt. It's pretty do able IMO but they will lose 85-90 if they cheap out/don't do it

[lou]

Danny Jansen turns 29 in April, is decent but nothing special defensively, and for his career he has hit .216/.299/.408 outside of Toronto/Buffalo.

I dont know why you like him so much.

3.7 WAR per 600 PA for his career, and he does not have a lot of wear and tear with lose usage by Toronto. He is pretty damn safe for a few years IMO with the defense and he paces over 25+ HR for full seasons. He is *perfect* for the Marlins

[lou]

1. Kim gets an extension.
2. Barnes, Cueto options declined, Wendle sent to japan, Stallings non-tendered, Gurriel and Robertson gone.
3. Trade for Danny Jansen and Swanson using Berti, maybe DLC, and prospects.
4. Arraez to 1b. Edwards to 2b..
5. Sign jordan Montgomery, and if the deal is like Cueto last year, take a flier on Hyun Jin Ryu if Sandy needs TJ.
6. Extensions for Arraez, Scott, Luzardo, and Eury if he is willing.
7. Find a team with a 40 man roster glut like the rays do every year and get another righty reliever from them for cheap.
8. DLC for a righty reliever.
9. Re-sign Soler and/or bell to 2 year 25-30 million deals.
10. Start using some of the kids as the bench bats instead of retread vets like Gurriel. Troy Johnston deserves a shot. Gotta start getting some youth off the bench with some potential.
11. Use rogers and whoever else it takes to get Ortiz.
12- Sign a stop gap 4th OF with some pop.

SP- Eury, Luzardo, Cabrera, Garrett, Montgomery with Sandy in the wings in 2025 and garrett traded after next year for another bat.
RP- Meyer used as a multi inning weapon as he gradually gets built back up with a spot in the rotation in mind in 2025 and the ability to step in for an injury in the rotation right away. .

C- Jansen/Fortes
1b- Arraez/Johnston
2b- Edwards
SS- Ortiz
3b- Burger
LF- Soler
CF- Jazz
RF- Sanchez
DH- Bell

Can move Arraez back and forth between 2b and 1b so that he is starting every day, edwards is starting a bunch, but allows Soler and Bell to split DH where they should both likely be primarily anyways.

I dont think that's an enormous payroll quite frankly but lou could probably do the math. Would be a lot more reasonable if garcia wasnt in there but we will either have to eat his contract, keep him on the roster, or if he's traded it's to take on another contract.

A lot going on here, but if I am following this, this would be just under $130m in payroll. If they do massive arbitration buy outs, they might be able to shave $5m+ from this with some backloading a little.

C Jansen, Fortes
1B Bell (assuming not opting out)
2B Arraez
SS Ortiz
3B Burger
LF Edwards
CF Jazz
RF Sanchez
DH Soler (assuming QO for Soler)
B - Fortes, Amaya, Hampson (assuming on bench), Johnston/Dane/Burdick/Other CC

SP-R Sandy, Eury, Cabrera
SP-L Luzardo, Garrett, Montgomery (assuming at least $20m)
RP-R Swanson, Chargois, CC RHP
RP-L Scott, Nardi, Puk, Okert

Dead Money - Garcia, Barnes, Cueto

You probably just keep DLC (or Garcia to at least start the year) here for that last bench spot (no change in $$$), as well probably need to send something better to Toronto to quib but we'll just assume prospects. Weathers would be the Sandy injury replacement IMO, and there is a slew of right handers for the pen + Meyer.



You can save $15m dollars here not keeping Soler and swapping Yimi/Green for Swanson (big incentive there to get that deal done to take mony off Toronto's books. And then do indeed send them DLC who is valuable to them as a club controlled platoon DH/LF with some power upside) coming from Toronto, so that gets you closer to $110m. Then I think what's a one year deal for someone like Duvall, Pham, Canha, M. Taylor, Grichuk, McCutchen (had a .378 OBP overall and .796 OPS vs LHP. I'll take that at DH), etc. That's a sub $120m team which I think we all agree, even if Bruce "spends," it's going up $10-20m in payroll and not $30-40m. Montgomery is a big long-term splurge here for sure, but I like it to be able to move Rogers for a legitimate SS prospect and deflect against an injury.

So sub $120m here with a greater probability you can do that Blue Jays trade with DLC also in the mix:

C Jansen, Fortes
1B Bell (assuming not opting out)
2B Arraez
SS Ortiz
3B Burger
LF Edwards
CF Jazz
RF Sanchez
DH McCutchen/Similar
B - Fortes, Amaya, Hampson (assuming on bench), Garcia/Johnston/Burdick/Dane/Other

SP-R Sandy, Eury, Cabrera
SP-L Luzardo, Garrett, Montgomery (assuming at least $20m)
RP-R Yimi/Green, Chargois, CC RHP
RP-L Scott, Nardi, Puk, Okert

There is definitely a lot of faith in Ortiz, Edwards, Amaya, McCutchen, Hampson, and whoever to put forth 2,500+ quality PA here, but C, 1B, 2B, 3B, CF, and RF are pretty strong and the staff is light's out if Sandy is there and very good if he is not. Pray for Berry and deadline bat acquisition pretty much. I'd take this risk FWIW.



Important to look at 2025 payroll here too because of that "let's trade Garrett" comment. I agree, that would have to happen.

Increases to Jansen (extension), Arraez, Jazz, Sanchez, Sandy, Luzardo, Scott (if retained), and Puk would get arbitration/salary raises of at least $45+m. It would be deflected radically with Bell, McCutchen/Similar, Hampson, Yimi/Green, Chargois, Okert, Barnes, and Cueto all coming off the books (around $38m), so with a mega-Montgomery contract coming on the books, they could probably do this in 2025......

For around $125m (or lower that to below $115m if Scott is not retained)

Jansen, Fortes
Arraez, Berry
Ortiz, Cappe
Amaya
Burger
Edwards, Myers/Burdick
Jazz, Mesa Jr.
Sanchez

Sandy, Eury, Cabrera, Luzardo, Garrett, Montgomery
Scott, Meyer, Puk, Nardi, Weathers, and pick your favorite two righties (Bender, Maldonado, Soriano, etc.)


You'd have to trade a SP here for another bat (Fulton and Monteverde are still here I mention) as those bolds would be a scary scary situation with only a few sure things in the lineup around them. Practically, this is trading a SP for a big bat and Garrett does make sense if he holds up, not keeping Scott and using that money for a 2nd free agent bat, and they should also probably dip into the farm and trade for another one. But this is of course post 2024 so we can't get too far ahead of ourselves.


But the key is, they *could* afford Montgomery here and an an extension for Jansen with getting a club controlled SS, so something like that seems like a real good plan for 2024. I think Bruce should give Kim floors of $115m in 2024 and $120-125m in 2025 and she will be able to figure this out no doubt. Just saying here, a Montgomery level signing is not a pie in the sky scenario IMO if they can move around some other parts.

[fish16]

Just FYI, the reason i brought up montgomery is because he is a really good pitcher, we had interest in him at the deadline, and he is going to get paid, but not like Nola and Snell. Let's be real, we arent getting those 2. Nola to me feels like he has st louis written all over him if the phillies let him leave. Snell is going to be out of our price range, and honestly i wouldnt pay what he would get because while he's a great pitcher, he pitched into the 7th inning just 3 times this year, and that's not an outlier for the rest of his career. He doesnt go deep into games. He's a 6 inning guy for whatever reason.

Montgomery is about as solid of a #3 level guy as it gets. He will probably get around 20 million per, and he is worth that to me. I see him getting 3-4 years, 60-80 million. I think he is worth that to me as a kind of consistent stabilizing piece in the rotation for a few years while we have ups and downs and injuries to the other young arms. That's the perfect piece to me for the rotation, doesnt cost you trade assets to get, which then allows you to use other assets in the organization to go and get more bats.

Luzardo, Eury, Montgomery, Garrett, Cabrera is a really solid rotation, and that's obviously without Sandy, with Meyer in the bullpen for a year to build him back slowly, and then you still have weathers as a flier piece moving forward.

[lou]

Danny Jansen turns 29 in April, is decent but nothing special defensively, and for his career he has hit .216/.299/.408 outside of Toronto/Buffalo.

I dont know why you like him so much.

Also to add here it's an opportunity cost - who else in baseball may be available?

The only reason IMO that the Jays aren't going to resign him longterm is that Kirk is good and can handle a load, they have a great 3rd emergency catcher in Varsho, and you can find cheap backups that can just catch baseballs (unless you're the Marlins). They also have two big financial problems - Bichette and Vlad - coming up. You go up and down every team in baseball and no one has catchers to burn. Backup types at best or guys that are 20 and 3 years away. Cartaya hit .189 in AA last year. There aren't even prospects.

The Cards do have one to move theoretically, but I don't think Knizner is the longterm upgrade we are hoping for. He's another Fortes. A lot of hope but probably a backup. They had their two prospect catchers and opted to sign Contreras you know. Says a lot. Henry Davis could be an option, but I don't know if the Pirates are trading him. I wouldn't if I were them as Endy + Davis could be a huge positional advantage for years for them.

There is just nothing out there - and que Lee saying they should have drafted Teel here - so this is similar to anything else with supply/demand. He's it for a significant upgrade. Past him, it's getting no defense Garver and that's a bad idea for a starter (maybe if he's a 50+ game catcher and 80+ game DH and Fortes can carry the load, etc. If we believe Fortes becomes a 1+ WAR player over 110+ starts that could work) or taking Gary Sanchez for a swing.

Catchers just suck right now so for me, I'm taking a shot on Jansen and buying Banfield 2+ full years in AAA. Hell, maybe they soured on Varsho and you get him and move him back to C for half his time and he becomes an 80 game catcher and 50 game CF started against RHP, etc. Gonna have to be creative if Jansen is removed from the board here. Hopefully Toronto is open to dealing here.