2023-2024 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Just FYI, the reason i brought up montgomery is because he is a really good pitcher, we had interest in him at the deadline, and he is going to get paid, but not like Nola and Snell. Let's be real, we arent getting those 2. Nola to me feels like he has st louis written all over him if the phillies let him leave. Snell is going to be out of our price range, and honestly i wouldnt pay what he would get because while he's a great pitcher, he pitched into the 7th inning just 3 times this year, and that's not an outlier for the rest of his career. He doesnt go deep into games. He's a 6 inning guy for whatever reason.

Montgomery is about as solid of a #3 level guy as it gets. He will probably get around 20 million per, and he is worth that to me. I see him getting 3-4 years, 60-80 million. I think he is worth that to me as a kind of consistent stabilizing piece in the rotation for a few years while we have ups and downs and injuries to the other young arms. That's the perfect piece to me for the rotation, doesnt cost you trade assets to get, which then allows you to use other assets in the organization to go and get more bats.

Luzardo, Eury, Montgomery, Garrett, Cabrera is a really solid rotation, and that's obviously without Sandy, with Meyer in the bullpen for a year to build him back slowly, and then you still have weathers as a flier piece moving forward.

I think a 4/$80m would do it for sure. As said above, it's not a bad idea assuming they do another SP trade post 2024 (if everyone is healthy of course). They'll have to be clever with some bats and hope they get some real contributors fast out of the kids (Edwards, Amaya, Berry, and Cappe most notably) but absent $140-150m payrolls, there will always be a hole.

[fish16]

I think a 4/$80m would do it for sure. As said above, it's not a bad idea assuming they do another SP trade post 2024 (if everyone is healthy of course). They'll have to be clever with some bats and hope they get some real contributors fast out of the kids (Edwards, Amaya, Berry, and Cappe most notably) but absent $140-150m payrolls, there will always be a hole.

I think if things break right, in 2025, with Sandy back, Eury with full innings potential, and same with Cabrera and Luzardo and Meyer probably at 150 or so, that opens the door to a garrett trade, and i think he would have a ton of value to get you a big piece back. To me he is the guy to go. He is further along in the arbitration process by then than the other guys, and if he has another season like he did this year, he would have a ton of value in a trade.

By 2025, could have Sandy healthy, Eury full innings, Luzardo hopefully signed to a good extension, Montgomery as the stabilizing piece in the middle of the rotation, Cabrera still cheap, Meyer ready to go, Weathers as a guy who can step in with some potential, and then Meyer and White probably still a year away, but not far off. Garrett becomes expendable, and gets you whatever piece we need at that point.

[Nick]

2024 prediction: I think Weathers becomes a staple of the rotation. We've already seen improvement from him. Give them a whole offseason, I think he's going to figure it out.

[Nick]

Minor League Stats since Trade:

Jake Eder: at AA 17.1 innings 11.42 ERA 22 K 15 BB
Ryan Weathers: at AAA 39 innings 2.54 ERA 38 K 14 BB

Weathers is over a year younger than Eder.

Kim did work at the deadline, I'm telling you.

[fish16]

2024 prediction: I think Weathers becomes a staple of the rotation. We've already seen improvement from him. Give them a whole offseason, I think he's going to figure it out.

wouldnt surprise me, but i hope they dont rely on that if that makes sense. Sign a guy like Montgomery still. Depth is good. Especially with Sandy seeming to be a lock for a TJ surgery at some point soon. If he becomes good, let him be a dynamite multi inning reliever or get more AAA experience to start the year, and then bring him up if the inevitable injury happens, or let him break the door down and make you put him in the rotation or in the bullpen.

We saw what happened this year with all the injuries and with Cueto doing nothing but eating after signing his contract. That cant happen again. We were lucky to make the playoffs with all the injuries down the stretch.

[Nick]

wouldnt surprise me, but i hope they dont rely on that if that makes sense. Sign a guy like Montgomery still. Depth is good. Especially with Sandy seeming to be a lock for a TJ surgery at some point soon. If he becomes good, let him be a dynamite multi inning reliever or get more AAA experience to start the year, and then bring him up if the inevitable injury happens, or let him break the door down and make you put him in the rotation or in the bullpen.

100% agree, I think he definitely starts at AAA, but if he keeps up with 2 ERA in AAA he's going to be first or 2nd guy up, so it won't take long that he gets his shot.

[fish16]

wouldnt mind taking a flier on Francisco mejia as a backup C on a minor league deal to bring to spring training to see if he can beat out fortes. he just elected free agency from the rays. Former top prospect. A little Alfaro-ish with the lack of walks, but there is talent there. on a minor league deal and AAA depth potentially, i wouldnt mind it. i prefer bet on talent than the retread 35 year old all glove backup C

[fish16]

100% agree, I think he definitely starts at AAA, but if he keeps up with 2 ERA in AAA he's going to be first or 2nd guy up, so it won't take long that he gets his shot.

Take sandy out of the equation, for next year we currently have Luzardo, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Weathers, Meyer, Rogers? Am i missing someone? With the uncertainty with Sandy, that is screaming sign a SP. If Sandy is somehow fine, having more options is always good.

[Nick]

Take sandy out of the equation, for next year we currently have Luzardo, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Weathers, Meyer, Rogers? Am i missing someone? With the uncertainty with Sandy, that is screaming sign a SP. If Sandy is somehow fine, having more options is always good.

Yeah I put it as my 2nd priority behind figuring out Sandy's health. We need one whether Sandy is good to go next year or not IMO. If he's not, maybe we need 2.

[lou]

I think if things break right, in 2025, with Sandy back, Eury with full innings potential, and same with Cabrera and Luzardo and Meyer probably at 150 or so, that opens the door to a garrett trade, and i think he would have a ton of value to get you a big piece back. To me he is the guy to go. He is further along in the arbitration process by then than the other guys, and if he has another season like he did this year, he would have a ton of value in a trade.

By 2025, could have Sandy healthy, Eury full innings, Luzardo hopefully signed to a good extension, Montgomery as the stabilizing piece in the middle of the rotation, Cabrera still cheap, Meyer ready to go, Weathers as a guy who can step in with some potential, and then Meyer and White probably still a year away, but not far off. Garrett becomes expendable, and gets you whatever piece we need at that point.

Meyer and White probably further off than that, BUT the organization thinks Dax Fulton has similar upside to Eder and almost Max, Monteverde could easily become a mid 4 churning innings eater weirdo deception SP or great 7th/8th SP that operates a longman, Andrew Lindsey could end up being a SP if it all clicks (he's already 23) and could be a fast system mover, and Miller/Millbrandt may fill that role of "1" year away guys. There is Sixto too, I am still not convinced they don't explore stretching Puk out now that they've had him a year, and they could draft a college SP in round 1 or 2 next year too to just keep up the numbers.

So yea, they have arms if they can stay healthy and signing a Montgomery does make sense to be able to shoot out Rogers (or even Garrett) right now, and the other (or someone else) after 2024.

[fish16]

Meyer and White probably further off than that, BUT the organization thinks Dax Fulton has similar upside to Eder and almost Max, Monteverde could easily become a mid 4 churning innings eater weirdo deception SP or great 7th/8th SP that operates a longman, Andrew Lindsey could end up being a SP if it all clicks (he's already 23) and could be a fast system mover, and Miller/Millbrandt may fill that role of "1" year away guys. There is Sixto too, I am still not convinced they don't explore stretching Puk out now that they've had him a year, and they could draft a college SP in round 1 or 2 next year too to just keep up the numbers.

So yea, they have arms if they can stay healthy and signing a Montgomery does make sense to be able to shoot out Rogers (or even Garrett) right now, and the other (or someone else) after 2024.

The meyer in my post was Max. Noble is probably 2026 at the earliest. we're going to be dealing with this confusion for a number of years.

[lou]

Take sandy out of the equation, for next year we currently have Luzardo, Eury, Cabrera, Garrett, Weathers, Meyer, Rogers? Am i missing someone? With the uncertainty with Sandy, that is screaming sign a SP. If Sandy is somehow fine, having more options is always good.

That's the 7, with the only notes Max is probably not an option until the summer and he will probably be a reliever, I think we can include Monteverde as a 7th/8th SP, and there is the prayer that is Sixto if he gets healthy. Fulton is probably not making his MLB debut of other notable names.

Don't shoot the messenger here either - Max was injured on the MLB roster so he is getting service time I believe. I think he is going to be at 1.082 days when next year starts, meaning he has 89 days to contribute on the MLB roster next year to preserve a full year of control. He's probably coming up in July assuming he is all healthy and fine. I imagine they want to get him 100-110 innings next year so I think he is a real real slow roll and he probably starts a hard 15 games in the minors and averages under 5 innings in those games. They start priming him for a bullpen shift in June a the MLB level and that gets him full innings.

Basically, they need a starter without Sandy as I see Meyer throwing 60+ innings in the minors and 40+ in the majors after the ASB.

[lou]

2024 prediction: I think Weathers becomes a staple of the rotation. We've already seen improvement from him. Give them a whole offseason, I think he's going to figure it out.

He's going to become something for years and Padres fans are going to barf, but I'm not sure if he's a Puk or Diet Luzardo just yet. Hope you're right. Either is a good result IMO.

[lou]

The meyer in my post was Max. Noble is probably 2026 at the earliest. we're going to be dealing with this confusion for a number of years.

Let's all collectively agree to call them Max and Noble.

Meyer is retired.

[fish16]

He's going to become something for years and Padres fans are going to barf, but I'm not sure if he's a Puk or Diet Luzardo just yet. Hope you're right. Either is a good result IMO.

padres fans are going to have no one to blame but their front office. Weathers was awful there, but it felt like complete mismanagement the way they brought him along. The pandemic didnt help, but he went from low A in 2019, didnt pitch in a game in 2020 because there were no minors, and then went to AAA for 10 innings and then all the way to San Diego for a full year in 2021. He clearly has the raw stuff, but that had to have hurt his development. Ideally he gets 10 starts of no pressure AAA games in April and May and then is theoretically ready for some big league action. Feels like he's been around for 10 years, but he's still just 23.

I could see him being just another Sean West from back in the day or he can become luzardo light. Time will tell, but they did not help his development whatsoever.