2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Namaste]

There’s also a TON of Spring Training results bias going on.

There is something like a 15% correlation between Spring Training results and regular season results historically.

[Nick]

There’s also a TON of Spring Training results bias going on.

There is something like a 15% correlation between Spring Training results and regular season results historically.

That's Lee's MO from day one. It's not what have you done for me lately with him. It's what have you done for me today.

[Lee Stone]

Bad is bad. That's what the Marlins organization is right now.

[Nick]

In 2021 the Houston Astros finished with the worst record in Spring Training. They ended up in the World Series. We had the best record in Spring Training. We did not.

[fish16]

The idea that this team got worse over the offseason to the point where they will lose 100 games is just absurd. They lost 93 games last year and lost something like 40 1 run games with jazz missing 102 games, Garcia being out of shape and missing 62 games, Soler having a hurt back and missing 90 games, Luzardo missing almost 3 full months, Cabrera missing 2 months, Rogers being a trainwreck. Absent a cataclysmic series of injuries, this team will hover around .500 with a floor of about 10 games under and a ceiling of 5-8 games over. They lost Anderson who stunk, rojas who was terrible last year, and pablo, and added Cueto, Puk, Barnes, Chargois, Arraez, and Segura, and Soler and Garcia are actually healthy and not fat this spring. They are not a playoff team without 1 more impact bat being added, but the idea of this team losing 100 games because lee thinks trading pablo for arraez was a bad trade is nonsensical. The projections have this team right around .500.

Last year they had Castano, Elieser, Nance, Hoeing, Neidert, and Poteet start a combined 23 games. That wont be happening this year, and they should get pitching reinforcements in the form of impact SP prospects towards the latter part of the year, plus whatever sixto can hopefully give them at some point.

I know its fun to have revisionist history and think this team was a trainwreck from opening day on, but they were a game under .500 a week after jazz went down. On July 5th, they were 39-40. Jazz went down on June 28th. Turns out, it helps having your best player when you dont have a ton of depth. The idea that on paper this team is 100 game loser is nonsense. It can certainly happen with a terrible rash of injuries, but on paper this team is in the high 70s low 80s.

[rmc523]

In 2021 the Houston Astros finished with the worst record in Spring Training. They ended up in the World Series. We had the best record in Spring Training. We did not.

How dare you bring facts and logic in here.

[rmc523]

The idea that this team got worse over the offseason to the point where they will lose 100 games is just absurd. They lost 93 games last year and lost something like 40 1 run games with jazz missing 102 games, Garcia being out of shape and missing 62 games, Soler having a hurt back and missing 90 games, Luzardo missing almost 3 full months, Cabrera missing 2 months, Rogers being a trainwreck. Absent a cataclysmic series of injuries, this team will hover around .500 with a floor of about 10 games under and a ceiling of 5-8 games over. They lost Anderson who stunk, rojas who was terrible last year, and pablo, and added Cueto, Puk, Barnes, Chargois, Arraez, and Segura, and Soler and Garcia are actually healthy and not fat this spring. They are not a playoff team without 1 more impact bat being added, but the idea of this team losing 100 games because lee thinks trading pablo for arraez was a bad trade is nonsensical. The projections have this team right around .500.

Last year they had Castano, Elieser, Nance, Hoeing, Neidert, and Poteet start a combined 23 games. That wont be happening this year, and they should get pitching reinforcements in the form of impact SP prospects towards the latter part of the year, plus whatever sixto can hopefully give them at some point.

I know its fun to have revisionist history and think this team was a trainwreck from opening day on, but they were a game under .500 a week after jazz went down. On July 5th, they were 39-40. Jazz went down on June 28th. Turns out, it helps having your best player when you dont have a ton of depth. The idea that on paper this team is 100 game loser is nonsense. It can certainly happen with a terrible rash of injuries, but on paper this team is in the high 70s low 80s.

I didn't realize we were that "good" that late in the season.

[lou]

I didn't realize we were that "good" that late in the season.

It is surprising. The 1 run losses are really deflecting here both on their upside/downside.

Ultimately, if they are 1 game under .500 on July 28th, that is a win in my book and sets up "making the move that should have been made 3 months ago." We can hope that is the catch fire moment and that the last wild card isn't far off from whatever the Phillies/Brewers are doing (I am pretty confident NYM/ATL, STL, and LAD/SD are foregone conclusions here).

[rmc523]

It is surprising. The 1 run losses are really deflecting here both on their upside/downside.

Ultimately, if they are 1 game under .500 on July 28th, that is a win in my book and sets up "making the move that should have been made 3 months ago." We can hope that is the catch fire moment and that the last wild card isn't far off from whatever the Phillies/Brewers are doing (I am pretty confident NYM/ATL, STL, and LAD/SD are foregone conclusions here).

It's just sad that Bruce wasn't willing to pony up and put the bow on top by signing one of the big SS names.

[fish16]

I didn't realize we were that "good" that late in the season.

we were not remotely good, but it's just an indication that last season wasnt this complete trainwreck of a year from start to finish. They were about .500 half way through the year, and then proceeded to go 30-53 from that point on, a lot of it due to just giving up around the deadline and the combination of all the injuries. Granted Sandy stayed completely healthy, but other than that last year, just about everything went wrong from an injury standpoint, and Garcia and Soler were complete trainwrecks and should be much better this year. It does happen a lot to us towards the end of every year dating back to the loria era for whatever reason, but this narrative that they were a trainwreck all year was just not what happened.

[fish16]

It's just sad that Bruce wasn't willing to pony up and put the bow on top by signing one of the big SS names.

Its a shame we couldnt find an owner with vision to make an investment in the team. Like ive said, an owner with vision would realize that an upfront investment on a premium player to put us into playoff contention would see at least a very big portion of that investment returned through attendance and other forms of increased revenue for a good team. The only way to build annual revenue for this franchise is to put a good team out there that is in contention and good all year, but we have an owner who doesnt understand the market enough to realize that. If they simply spent like a league average team and signed correa and then traded for reynolds and signed him, we are looking at an annual contender for the next 5 years easily. Our lineup would be dynamic, and our rotation would still be among the best in baseball. But alas.

Signing correa and trading say Rogers, Meyer, Eder, Sanchez or whatever combo for Reynolds, we could trot out a crazy good lineup very easily.

Arraez
Correa
Jazz
Reynolds
Soler
Garcia
Cooper
Wendle
Stallings or Fortes

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Garrett, with Eury on the horizon and sixto in the shadows lurking

[rmc523]

we were not remotely good, but it's just an indication that last season wasnt this complete trainwreck of a year from start to finish. They were about .500 half way through the year, and then proceeded to go 30-53 from that point on, a lot of it due to just giving up around the deadline and the combination of all the injuries. Granted Sandy stayed completely healthy, but other than that last year, just about everything went wrong from an injury standpoint, and Garcia and Soler were complete trainwrecks and should be much better this year. It does happen a lot to us towards the end of every year dating back to the loria era for whatever reason, but this narrative that they were a trainwreck all year was just not what happened.

Hence why I put good in quotes....

I believe I said that we'd be around .500 and potential to be better for the whole season. If health had remained, seems like I may have been right.

[lou]

Its a shame we couldnt find an owner with vision to make an investment in the team. Like ive said, an owner with vision would realize that an upfront investment on a premium player to put us into playoff contention would see at least a very big portion of that investment returned through attendance and other forms of increased revenue for a good team. The only way to build annual revenue for this franchise is to put a good team out there that is in contention and good all year, but we have an owner who doesnt understand the market enough to realize that. If they simply spent like a league average team and signed correa and then traded for reynolds and signed him, we are looking at an annual contender for the next 5 years easily. Our lineup would be dynamic, and our rotation would still be among the best in baseball. But alas.

Signing correa and trading say Rogers, Meyer, Eder, Sanchez or whatever combo for Reynolds, we could trot out a crazy good lineup very easily.

Arraez
Correa
Jazz
Reynolds
Soler
Garcia
Cooper
Wendle
Stallings or Fortes

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Garrett, with Eury on the horizon and sixto in the shadows lurking

To quib, throw Pittsburgh 6 guys and take back Brubaker (3 years of control) here as they would need another SP. Blow it all out.

But yes that team would be a vast improvement with Berti and DLC each getting 100+ starts off the bench easily and the 13th man is really a 50+ start whatever player. Looking at you Burdick to just mash some lefties and really get Jazz, Wendle, and DLC on the bench for left handers. Berti/IF off day, DLC/OF of day, and Burdick as the primary bench against RHP to note. That team is great with Brubacker as the "4."

It would probably be $125m as Reynolds/Segura cancel each other out, and they could creatively work Correa with deferments and Brubacker is not expensive. Bruce sucks. This was so obvious.

[fish16]

Now Carlos Rodon has a forearm issue that will put him on the il to start the year. They like Peraza too much to trade him, but if there’s ever a time to try to use the sp surplus to go get a long term ss, now is the time

[lou]

Now Carlos Rodon has a forearm issue that will put him on the il to start the year. They like Peraza too much to trade him, but if there’s ever a time to try to use the sp surplus to go get a long term ss, now is the time

I thought the same thing as it looks like he'll be out most of April. It's Hicks. That's how they'd do it. They'd need to absorb a lot of him, but it's worth it. Just sign Dylan Bundy to be the 6th SP (as minimum Garrett, probably Cabrera or Rogers would be going back) and solve SS for years.