2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

exactly. If there is anyone other than sandy to trust to be ready for the season, it's cueto. the guy has been a quality pitcher for what feels like 20 years, he will be ready. He also wasn't even hit all that hard other than the bomb to walker, who is going to be a great player as early as this year. He gave up 3 singles, 2 of which could have easily been outs with better defense, and an infield hit.

One thing i will say that seems obvious even this early is that the shift will make offenses much better this year. The field seems much bigger without the ridiculous shifts teams were playing. Might not make a big difference in extra base hits, but i think singles will sky rocket from what they have been the last few years. For teams with a lot of slap hitters and teams that play to contact, it will be a huge benefit. That's us. It also will hurt us from a pitching perspective, but i trust our pitchers and i think it will be a net positive for us.

The other thing is i think we will be stealing a ton of bags this year. I think berti has become a lot mroe valuable and i wouldnt be surprised at all to see him getting more playing time than anticipated. I think i saw that the difference is 4.5 inches with the bigger bags this year and while that might not seem like a lot, that makes a pretty big difference on those close plays. I could see Berti obviously leading the league in steals again, but also Jazz and Segura stealing a good amount of bases as well if they stay healthy. Segura isnt as fast as he used to be, but he has a career high of 44 steals and stole 13 last year, so i could see 20 this year. Jazz stole 12 in a third of a season essentially last year. I could see him going 30/30 over a full healthy year.

With how our lineup is constructed unless Soler and Garcia recreate their career years power wise, we will need to manufacture runs more, and the lack of a shift and the bigger bases can only help us to do so.

Berti is going to start 130+ games if he plays like last year. I'm not sure where you pegged his playing time, but assuming health I'd take the over on 2022 (404 PA) based on how this team is constructed and he frankly has to play against left handers because of Wendle. I'm expecting about 100 starts/450 PA.

[lou]

A Sixto sighting - https://twitter.com/J_McPherson1126/...772414473?s=20

That July 28-30th Detroit Tigers home series is going to have a real impactful 1-2 bunch of Miggy + Sixto both showing up.

[fish16]

I get the idea behind soler at the 2 spot but i think that should be cooper if the idea is to get a more power bat in that spot. Cooper has the higher OBP and can still bring some power. Soler doesnt get on base or walk much.

To me, 1, 3, and 4 should be locked in every day with Arraez, Jazz at 3 to break up lefties, and then Soler. Soler is your traditional clean up hitter and his lack of OBP isnt as glaring there and his power can bring home jazz and Arraez a lot. He had a bad year last year, but he was still on pace for close to 30 hr's even with a bad back so he is as traditional of a mauling cleanup hitter as it gets. Then you can work the 2 spot and 5-9 in a bunch of different directions depending on how you want to split it up. I could see Cooper and Segura at either 2 or 5. If you want more contact you go with segura at 2 and coop at 5, if you want a little more power at 2 you go cooper there and segura 5th as essentially a 2nd leadoff man for the bottom half of the order. Then 6 and 7 is Garcia and DLC/Sanchez, with Wendle and C at the bottom of the lineup.

I really like Skip btw. He brings some youngblood to a manager position that has felt stale and out of touch with modern baseball for several years now. The cardinals were known for doing a lot of innovative and creative stuff throughout the last decade or so and he was around for a lot of it. Very interested to see some of the touches he puts on this team.

[fish16]

A Sixto sighting - https://twitter.com/J_McPherson1126/...772414473?s=20

That July 28-30th Detroit Tigers home series is going to have a real impactful 1-2 bunch of Miggy + Sixto both showing up.

he's clearly nowhere close to 100%. They are being so careful with him to just build up that shoulder and make sure there are no setbacks, but he's throwing exactly how his bullpens have looked each of the last 2 years. The priority is obviously that he build that shoulder up and have no set backs, but he will absolutely be closer to summer than opening day. It is still february, but id be shocked if he's even pitching in minor league games before the end of May.

[fish16]

another thing i find interesting is the public comments from skip that he wants soler to play LF a lot because he envisions the DH spot as a moving "half rest day" for guys in the lineup. It makes sense, we do have a lot of positional versatility in both the IF and OF, so if Soler is healthy enough to play LF a bunch, it allows guys to get 4 ab's still while getting the benefit of the rest day from the field.

[fish16]

MLB updated top 30 for us- Eury, Berry, Meyer, Fulton, Eder, Mack, Cappe, Miller, Amaya, Groshans, Sixto, Edwards, Watson!, Victor JR, Lewis (low), Milbrants, Gerardo, Peguero, Vargas, Morissette (dont get that), Nunez, Hernandez, enright, Simpson, Reynolds, Soriano, Fitterer, Mcintosh, Johnston, Monteverde.

Reynolds looks interesting. He looked enormous on the mound yesterday, throws hard, and got some back end experience in the minors last year. He also has some of the worst strikeout stats ive ever seen as a hitter before he became a pitcher. He was laughably bad at making contact. In his last full year as a hitter in 2019, he struck out 184 times in 319 ab's, meaning out of the plate appearances that didnt end up with a walk or HBP, he struck out 57.6 percent of the time!!

I get that Watson had an all around trainwreck year last year, but that feels super low. Victor JR above Lewis also seems kind of dumb. He doesnt have speed, power, or on base ability that he has displayed yet. Morrissette i dont get either. I get he was a relatively high pick, but he hasnt showed much of anything. Miller is also pure projection because he's barely pitched, but that's the highest ive seen him. Still just 19 pretty much all year, so will be interesting to watch his development.

Good to see the actual scouts are still really high on berry's bat. Hopefully we look back and laugh at the overreaction based on his initial minor league play, but he still feels like colin moran to me.

They have 50+ grades on each of the top 8. amaya they have at 45, but he feels like a good get for rojas regardless of how he turns out. Rojas grew stale here. He will probably play well for the dodgers though, but it wouldnt have happened here. Glad they turned the page and are focusing on guys like Groshans and Amaya and edwards.

[lou]

another thing i find interesting is the public comments from skip that he wants soler to play LF a lot because he envisions the DH spot as a moving "half rest day" for guys in the lineup. It makes sense, we do have a lot of positional versatility in both the IF and OF, so if Soler is healthy enough to play LF a bunch, it allows guys to get 4 ab's still while getting the benefit of the rest day from the field.

This is where we facepalm. They could do that as-is with Soler at DH, assuming DLC, Sanchez, Garcia, and Cooper are all going to play to their career rates.

They'd need probably Burdick or Jerar to really hit (at least one of them versus LHP, looking at you Burdick) to have this make further sense. But maybe Burdick is in fact a real lefty killer sooner rather than later and Jazz operates as the 5th IF.

[lou]

MLB updated top 30 for us- Eury, Berry, Meyer, Fulton, Eder, Mack, Cappe, Miller, Amaya, Groshans, Sixto, Edwards, Watson!, Victor JR, Lewis (low), Milbrants, Gerardo, Peguero, Vargas, Morissette (dont get that), Nunez, Hernandez, enright, Simpson, Reynolds, Soriano, Fitterer, Mcintosh, Johnston, Monteverde.

Reynolds looks interesting. He looked enormous on the mound yesterday, throws hard, and got some back end experience in the minors last year. He also has some of the worst strikeout stats ive ever seen as a hitter before he became a pitcher. He was laughably bad at making contact. In his last full year as a hitter in 2019, he struck out 184 times in 319 ab's, meaning out of the plate appearances that didnt end up with a walk or HBP, he struck out 57.6 percent of the time!!

I get that Watson had an all around trainwreck year last year, but that feels super low. Victor JR above Lewis also seems kind of dumb. He doesnt have speed, power, or on base ability that he has displayed yet. Morrissette i dont get either. I get he was a relatively high pick, but he hasnt showed much of anything. Miller is also pure projection because he's barely pitched, but that's the highest ive seen him. Still just 19 pretty much all year, so will be interesting to watch his development.

Good to see the actual scouts are still really high on berry's bat. Hopefully we look back and laugh at the overreaction based on his initial minor league play, but he still feels like colin moran to me.

They have 50+ grades on each of the top 8. amaya they have at 45, but he feels like a good get for rojas regardless of how he turns out. Rojas grew stale here. He will probably play well for the dodgers though, but it wouldnt have happened here. Glad they turned the page and are focusing on guys like Groshans and Amaya and edwards.

2-5 are interchangeable to me here. Cappe should probably be there too.

Mack over Cappe is hopefully inspiring and not a ding on Cappe.

Amaya is great for Rojas for sure. He has a severe lefty split so he may be a perfect backup 2B/SS/3B type.

I like Miller a little higher here.

Watson is a terrible mention.

Morisette has an advanced hit tool - he could turn into an Owen Miller player, and as a lefty, would presumably play up versus him. He hits that contact thing they like all of a sudden. He should hit if he works out even if the power may never come.

They definitely have some future RP even if no reliever aces..... but maybe Meyer, Sixto, Puk, and Eder are those reliever aces.

[fish16]

This is where we facepalm. They could do that as-is with Soler at DH, assuming DLC, Sanchez, Garcia, and Cooper are all going to play to their career rates.

They'd need probably Burdick or Jerar to really hit (at least one of them versus LHP, looking at you Burdick) to have this make further sense. But maybe Burdick is in fact a real lefty killer sooner rather than later and Jazz operates as the 5th IF.

not sure what the facepalm is, but the idea is that if soler can play LF a decent amount, it gives us the opportunity to keep guys like Arraez, Cooper, Jazz, Segura, etc in the lineup while also them getting some rest from the field without taking them out of the lineup. not sure what is facepalm worthy.

The can give Jazz a day off from center by moving DLC over. they can give Arraez a day off by moving berti, segura, or Jazz to 2b. They can give Cooper a day off by moving arraez to 1b and berti to 2b. Garcia can DH and move Sanchez or DLC over. It just allows us to keep bats in the lineup while also giving them a slight rest from the field for a day using the positional versatility of some guys.

[Namaste]

anyone going to any of the WBC games at marlins park? They looked like an amazing atmosphere last time it was here.

I got the 15 game strip. Very reasonable price because I got a 10 game Marlins plan.

15 games, 3 seats for $612

[lou]

not sure what the facepalm is, but the idea is that if soler can play LF a decent amount, it gives us the opportunity to keep guys like Arraez, Cooper, Jazz, Segura, etc in the lineup while also them getting some rest from the field without taking them out of the lineup. not sure what is facepalm worthy.

The can give Jazz a day off from center by moving DLC over. they can give Arraez a day off by moving berti, segura, or Jazz to 2b. They can give Cooper a day off by moving arraez to 1b and berti to 2b. Garcia can DH and move Sanchez or DLC over. It just allows us to keep bats in the lineup while also giving them a slight rest from the field for a day using the positional versatility of some guys.

The facepalm is this:

Starts

C - Fortes 81 / Stallings 81
1B - Cooper 110 / Arraez 52
2B - Arraez 90 / Berti 72
SS - Wendle 110 / Berti 52
3B - Segura 132 / Berti 30
LF - DLC 82 / Sanchez 80
CF - Jazz 132 / DLC 30
RF - Garcia 132 / Sanchez 30
DH - Soler 142 / DLC 20

Importantly this is "12" guys

Starts

Berti - 154 < ----- I am getting to this
Arraez - 142
Soler - 142
Jazz -132 (few extra for lefties)
Segura - 132 (few extra because older)
Garcia - 132 (few extra off days as older plus he wasn't good)
DLC - 132 < ----- I am getting to this
Cooper - 110 (2x off days a week)
Sanchez - 110 < ----- I am getting to this
Wendle - 110
Fortes - 81
Stallings - 81

This is why this last roster spot is "really" important as 50 games clearly needs to be knocked off Berti, and another 50 games knocked off of DLC/Sanchez/Garcia at minimum. Not to mention Wendle may be a few high. Considering Berti can play IF and OF and there are 20 DH games on this hypothetical, this 13th player can really be "anyone" who can play in the field (absent a 1B only type)

So to the point, Soler in the OF? Fucking why absent a Gurriel stiff? Everyone is very rested here. Arraez has a lower stress 2x games a week at 1B. Soler is never in the field. And extra off days for Segura/Garcia, etc. There is plenty of time for better defenders (DLC/Sanchez/even Berti probably) to be out there versus resorting to Soler. Cooper has enough off days as-is.

It's the same question - they need another bat. And if they don't get one, just throw in 100 starts for a revolving Groshans/Amaya/Burdick and basically vulture all of those games from Berti/DLC/Sanchez where Soler NEVER gets into the field. That's what a good team would do. Maybe I am wrong and Soler becomes a good defender all of a sudden, but they have options here to keep him in the dugout. At most, throw him out there 25+ games (once a week) just to give Cooper/Garcia 12+ games more of a field break.

[sports24/7]

..... but Arraez best position is 2B because his offense plays so over the top there it outweighs any defensive arguments. He is likely pretty OK at 2B as he has been pretty solid there since 2020 (2019 was rough). You only move him off at this point if Jazz is a complete failure in CF and he can't play SS. Big picture, Jazz at 2B/SS/CF (or 3B) likely all produce the same value for him offensively, so it's seeing how well he is defensively anywhere. Hopefully we don't get into a debate where Arraez has to move because Jazz is so bad everywhere else it makes more sense to keep Jazz at 2B and Arraez at 1B because Jazz can't cut it, but we'll see. I'd bet on the athlete here personally and trust the Marlins ability to turn him into a good enough CF.

Also, since we're lowering Arraez production moving him from 2B to 1B in this scenario, moving Segura doesn't change any defensive value (he's going to be fine anywhere), and Cooper isn't a total shlub, what you're asking for is Amaya or Groshans to be a 2+ WAR player instantly to push Cooper to the bench. I'm estimating Cooper to be a 1.5+ WAR guy here and the rest of the production the lost defensive value. I mean yes, that's a best case scenario for sure if they turned Bass/Pop/Rojas into a long term 2+ WAR starter, but I don't think this is realistic for now. If we want to ditch Cooper from the starting lineup..... it would be BERTI keeping up his 2022 pace (well over 3+ WAR over 600 PA). In that scenario I think you can make an argument Berti/Wendle/Segura/Arraez is better than Segura/Wendle/Arraez/Cooper, but who knows what Berti will do. I think a healthy Cooper is the better bet. And practically, Arraez should be starting 50+ games at 1B to give Cooper "2" off days a week with the Marlins "Buxtoning" his playing time, so we'll have that lineup effectively 1/3rd the time regardless. Presumably against right handers.

This is all going to work itself out via actual performance as the team is pretty versatile with Arraez, Segura, Wendle, Berti, Jazz, and I think think Sanchez is a sneaky OK enough CF defender versus RHP to be able to move around the field - plus they have the 13th bench spot up for grabs so that triggers what you mentioned, Groshans, Amaya, and others. Who knows, maybe Garret Hampson figures it out? Maybe Burdick becomes Luplow (career .842 OPS vs LHP)?

The problem just still remains as you mentioned at the end - where's the SS (or other significant bat upgrade)? Whatever positional arrangement of Berti vs Cooper starting or who the 13th man is isn't going to make/break this team. Not having Correa or at least Swanson on the team is the problem. All roads to Bruce.

I get what you're saying, but regardless of how well some of these guys hit, this team is going to have to rely on their pitching if they want to truly contend, and playing a bunch of guys out of position (or in positions where they give you mediocre-at-best defensive production) is hard to reconcile there. Yes, Arraez's value goes down if he's at 1st, but if he's challenging for a batting title there, I think you're ok. I also don't think my plan necessarily means Cooper "goes to the bench". He'll DH and play 1B some, but we also know he's going to miss significant time due to injury, because that's what he does. Sanchez isn't going to play against lefties, and who knows what De La Cruz is going to give you, so you're going to have plenty of at bats for Cooper at DH with Soler in LF, or even some games with Cooper in RF. I don't know that that's the ideal way for them to handle things, but unfortunately the roster wasn't built the best way positionally.

[fish16]

I got the 15 game strip. Very reasonable price because I got a 10 game Marlins plan.

15 games, 3 seats for $612

That’s a hell of a deal for $204 per seat for 15 games

[sports24/7]

I think I've said this before, but the fact that the Marlins don't wear anything like these blue spring training uniforms in-season is insane. I also think the logo on their hats should be their main logo. It's so much better than the M.

[fish16]

The facepalm is this:

Starts

C - Fortes 81 / Stallings 81
1B - Cooper 110 / Arraez 52
2B - Arraez 90 / Berti 72
SS - Wendle 110 / Berti 52
3B - Segura 132 / Berti 30
LF - DLC 82 / Sanchez 80
CF - Jazz 132 / DLC 30
RF - Garcia 132 / Sanchez 30
DH - Soler 142 / DLC 20

Importantly this is "12" guys

Starts

Berti - 154 < ----- I am getting to this
Arraez - 142
Soler - 142
Jazz -132 (few extra for lefties)
Segura - 132 (few extra because older)
Garcia - 132 (few extra off days as older plus he wasn't good)
DLC - 132 < ----- I am getting to this
Cooper - 110 (2x off days a week)
Sanchez - 110 < ----- I am getting to this
Wendle - 110
Fortes - 81
Stallings - 81

This is why this last roster spot is "really" important as 50 games clearly needs to be knocked off Berti, and another 50 games knocked off of DLC/Sanchez/Garcia at minimum. Not to mention Wendle may be a few high. Considering Berti can play IF and OF and there are 20 DH games on this hypothetical, this 13th player can really be "anyone" who can play in the field (absent a 1B only type)

So to the point, Soler in the OF? Fucking why absent a Gurriel stiff? Everyone is very rested here. Arraez has a lower stress 2x games a week at 1B. Soler is never in the field. And extra off days for Segura/Garcia, etc. There is plenty of time for better defenders (DLC/Sanchez/even Berti probably) to be out there versus resorting to Soler. Cooper has enough off days as-is.

It's the same question - they need another bat. And if they don't get one, just throw in 100 starts for a revolving Groshans/Amaya/Burdick and basically vulture all of those games from Berti/DLC/Sanchez where Soler NEVER gets into the field. That's what a good team would do. Maybe I am wrong and Soler becomes a good defender all of a sudden, but they have options here to keep him in the dugout. At most, throw him out there 25+ games (once a week) just to give Cooper/Garcia 12+ games more of a field break.

The why would be allowing guys to get 4 AB’s while also resting their legs. If, just throwing a number out there, jazz dh’s 30 times, that’s 30 less games he’s in the field and risking injury and wearing down over the course of the season. It’s not about total starts, it’s about keeping the load off guys as much as you can over the course of 6 months.

Dlc and Sanchez aren’t elite defenders, getting guys some rest while still being in the lineup for 4-5 abs over a backup is more important over the course of a season. Especially on a team with injury histories like jazz, Cooper, Arraez has knee issues, Garcia missed a ton of last year. It’s about keeping your best bats in the lineup while giving them a half day off. Soler at dh full time means if any of those guys rest ever, they don’t start. He can play lf and rf passably if he’s healthy. Don’t wear your best bats down or at least do what you can to prevent them from wearing down over the course of 162 games. The slight downgrade defensively in a corner outfield spot a few times a week is worth it. Especially for jazz, who has a wreckless playing style especially defensively where he’s playing a new position.

if soler can start in a corner of spot or simply get a day off 70 times (say 45 starts and 25 days off) that’s 70 games you can spell guys in the field. Split it how you want, but that could be 30 less games for jazz to get hurt in center, 25 less games for Cooper to get hurt yet again at 1b, and another 15 games for Arraez at dh plus a bunch at 1b where he will have less wear and tear.

all of that is significantly more important over the course of a year than having a downgrade of soler in lf defensively for a handful of games over the course of 6 months

if a lot of those guys can still start that number of games, but with a bunch of them coming at dh instead of having to play the field, you can keep guys fresh over a long season