Originally posted by lou
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Baseball is the most inconsistent and hardest sport to project players on a year to year basis. Football players, basketball players, and for the most part hockey players are consistent on a year to year basis in their prime. If you wanted to use models as the end all be all in those sports, fine, but blindly following computer projections in baseball with 0 room for anyone who calls you out on that fact is ridiculous. and it's why you are consistently advocating for a marlins team with limited payroll abilities to sign mediocre players to 15 million a year contracts. Again, see didi gregorious.
Not sure how many times we have to go over this, but im not saying rosario is a bad player, im saying your hope that they give him 15 million for 5 years is a horrendous value for the actual player he is, specifically for a team with the marlins payroll limitations. That doesnt mean he is a bad player.
The plan is clear- trade rogers and prospects for reynolds, sign 1 more bullpen arm, hope for health and better luck/betting pitchers in 1 run games and some bouncebacks from Soler and Garcia, and if it doesnt happen move on to the following year and try to keep finding long term cost controlled hitting talent to complement the ridiculous rotation we will have in a year with Cabrera and Luzardo letting loose on the innings, Eury coming up for good, Meyer coming back, and maybe sixto being something again.
The team doesnt have to transform a 69 win team into a surefire playoff team for it to be a successful offseason. Ng has deservedly gotten shit for the start to the offseason, but if she turns it into Segura, Cueto, Arraez, and Reynolds while just giving up Rogers and Pablo and prospects and still have a long term rotation of Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Eury, Meyer, Eder, Fulton, and Sixto is a great offseason. Right now it's just alright, Reynolds or whoever might be available with a similar good impact bat under team control would be the icing on the cake.
Also, i wouldnt put my hopes on it, but there is a theoretical path to a wild card contention with Reynolds, health working out for us with Jazz and the pitching, obvious bouncebacks from Soler and Garcia, and slightly less terrible luck in 1 run games. Coming into the offseason you wanted them to add a impact multi WAR CF. They have done that by moving jazz and acquiring Arraez. You wanted an innings eating SP who can bridge the gap to next year with Pablo being traded. They did that. cueto was phenomenal last year. You also wanted that at SS. They didnt do that, but getting reynolds and Wendle just being himself and slightly better again is a good plan as well that just rearranges the same WAR you wanted to add. It all boils down to this- they need to get Reynolds to really make this offseason a home run, and you need to stop blindly following computer projections without ever looking back at how terrible they are.
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