2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Ya that's a ridiculous post. Eury is untouchable. And he needs to get off the rosario hype train. He's a thoroughly mediocre hitter and graded out negatively defensively in 3 of the 5 years he's played full seasons. To give him 15 million would be incredibly dumb. He is just 26, but for his career he's a 95 WRC+, and has graded out negatively both defensively and offensively for his entire career. He doesnt have much power, he doesnt get on base, he doesnt walk at all, he's not a prolific base stealer. Enough of it. If you can get him for cheap next year because of his proximity to free agency, sure, but he's not some guy you trade and give an enormous extension to. He doesnt have a single elite trait. 15 Million for a guy who is a decent player, about 2 WAR per year, from the marlins perspective, is dumb. That's not a guy you give up Garrett and Burdick for and then pay 15 million a year. If he was under control for 3+ years, sure, but as a pending free agent, that's bad business.

What's bad business is winning 78 games IMO. Also, I said as a thought experiment. When does Eury become available, is it Gunnar Henderson then? To note, I think I'd try and spoil Pittsburgh with Rogers/Meyer/Watson/Miller and others for him and sign Wacha to make up pitching, but you can find permutations that work with Eury for sure. My issue is, are we just circling 2024 (or 2025?) and the idea with Stallings/Cooper/Wendle/Berti/Cueto/Floro/Chargois/Scott/Bleier, maybe Segura, is to trade them at the deadline and then focus on another SP trade and praying Bruce spends? And we're doing that because we believe Eury and Meyer are the missing pieces? So we are going the same thing again next year? Because as of now, this team isn't contending and it's going to take a radical 2-3 player upgrade to get them where they need to be. That's a bare minimum. 7-8+ WAR in players over choice positions only.

Also to note, ignoring I said to re-sign everyone so it's not trading for a pending free agent, Rosario is *exactly* the guy this team needs. But if you think Cleveland keeps him to contend and send him off to free agency next year, sure. Sign him in free agency next year since we're just circling next year also with the way things are going. Rosario is an excellent contact hitter (their thing), with a low K rate, is super fast, and, here's the kicker - he hits the ball very hard. Top 30th percentile max EV. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. Very consistent with that also. This is the kind of profile you buy into with 26-27 year olds (Arraez mold also) and ask, are they going to grow into power ala Daniel Murphy. Look at what happened to Murphy when he turned 30 and worked on his launch angle. He went on a 5 year hitting tear (ignoring his defense exploded). These super high contact guys often grow into power as they age as they are very comfortable batting and experience lets them make more informed hitting decisions and contact improves their swing path. Rosario has all the tools to explode if he can pick his spots and work on a launch angle (like Daniel Murphy). He's a good bet to exceed any next contract with anticipating power. I would love to acquire all the guys in the league. Take all the shots at finding the next Murphy as you'd be buying low on all of them, and all of them have high floors with the K rate. If you like Arraez, you like Rosario is what I am saying. Arraez has his EV's creeping up so while not larger like Rosario physically, he may be growing into a little power with confidence and experience.

And if you think I am off here, here's a list of the guys top 45 in baseball in K rates the Marlins have been, or casually, linked too, this offseason - Arraez, Kirk, Rojas, Gurriel, Verdugo, Profar, J. Abreu, J. Turner, H. Kim, Nimmo, and B. Rodgers. That's basically every guy who was available this offseason in this group excluding Adam Frazier, Benintendi, Josh Bell, and Elvis Andrus (everyone else is signed or going nowhere). The Marlins are *definitely* doing a thing here and thinking this way whether you agree with them or not. This is the player pool they want. Notably however, there is one guy in this group on an expiring contract where his team has internal replacements - it's Rosario. They should get him and Cleveland has a deepish farm to take back something else as you likely need to give them something MLB ready as they are a contender. Huge fit here. Huge.

[lou]

Any trade for Reynolds needs to be Rogers, Eder/Meyer, Bleday/Sanchez, and then whatever combo of lower level guys works for the pirates. That's more than fair in my opinion. If they ask for more than that, or require Cabrera or Luzardo, you tell them to fuck off and move onto the next guy who might be available.

Third guys would need to be floor Eder/Watson/Cappe/Fulton IMO, and 2nd guy is Berry/Meyer.

I'd do it. But if they chuck if Bednar or Brubaker, it gets more interesting for sure.

[fish16]

What's bad business is winning 78 games IMO. Also, I said as a thought experiment. When does Eury become available, is it Gunnar Henderson then? To note, I think I'd try and spoil Pittsburgh with Rogers/Meyer/Watson/Miller and others for him and sign Wacha to make up pitching, but you can find permutations that work with Eury for sure. My issue is, are we just circling 2024 (or 2025?) and the idea with Stallings/Cooper/Wendle/Berti/Cueto/Floro/Chargois/Scott/Bleier, maybe Segura, is to trade them at the deadline and then focus on another SP trade and praying Bruce spends? And we're doing that because we believe Eury and Meyer are the missing pieces? So we are going the same thing again next year? Because as of now, this team isn't contending and it's going to take a radical 2-3 player upgrade to get them where they need to be. That's a bare minimum. 7-8+ WAR in players over choice positions only.

Also to note, ignoring I said to re-sign everyone so it's not trading for a pending free agent, Rosario is *exactly* the guy this team needs. But if you think Cleveland keeps him to contend and send him off to free agency next year, sure. Sign him in free agency next year since we're just circling next year also with the way things are going. Rosario is an excellent contact hitter (their thing), with a low K rate, is super fast, and, here's the kicker - he hits the ball very hard. Top 30th percentile max EV. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. Very consistent with that also. This is the kind of profile you buy into with 26-27 year olds (Arraez mold also) and ask, are they going to grow into power ala Daniel Murphy. Look at what happened to Murphy when he turned 30 and worked on his launch angle. He went on a 5 year hitting tear (ignoring his defense exploded). These super high contact guys often grow into power as they age as they are very comfortable batting and experience lets them make more informed hitting decisions and contact improves their swing path. Rosario has all the tools to explode if he can pick his spots and work on a launch angle (like Daniel Murphy). He's a good bet to exceed any next contract with anticipating power. I would love to acquire all the guys in the league. Take all the shots at finding the next Murphy as you'd be buying low on all of them, and all of them have high floors with the K rate. If you like Arraez, you like Rosario is what I am saying. Arraez has his EV's creeping up so while not larger like Rosario physically, he may be growing into a little power with confidence and experience.

And if you think I am off here, here's a list of the guys top 45 in baseball in K rates the Marlins have been, or casually, linked too, this offseason - Arraez, Kirk, Rojas, Gurriel, Verdugo, Profar, J. Abreu, J. Turner, H. Kim, Nimmo, and B. Rodgers. That's basically every guy who was available this offseason in this group excluding Adam Frazier, Benintendi, Josh Bell, and Elvis Andrus (everyone else is signed or going nowhere). The Marlins are *definitely* doing a thing here and thinking this way whether you agree with them or not. This is the player pool they want. Notably however, there is one guy in this group on an expiring contract where his team has internal replacements - it's Rosario. They should get him and Cleveland has a deepish farm to take back something else as you likely need to give them something MLB ready as they are a contender. Huge fit here. Huge.

Rosario aint the difference between winning 78 games and being a contender. As i said, he's a decent player, he's not that special. He doesnt get on base, he never walks, doesnt have special power, does not steal a ton of bases, and doesnt grade out all that incredibly defensively. He is a decent SS.

And to answer your question, Eury is not available. Unless you get a similarly ranked hitting prospect who is under team control for 6 years. It's not for a guy who you then have to turn around and pay 20+ million per year to. That's a surplus value loss. Eury at 6 years for cheap is a much better asset than Reynolds for 6 years and however many million you will have to pay him to extend him. Reynolds is not a guy you trade Eury for, and you can find other permutations of guys that you can get him for. If not, they can continue to hold on to an asset that depreciates daily, because they wont be trading him as no one will meet that price.

I didnt ignore your request to extend him, your price for extending him was the exact reason it would be nonsensical to trade a major piece of anything for him. Rosario is not worth 15 million to a team of the marlins payroll level. That is way too much for a player of his caliber when you have the payroll we do. It maybe makes sense to a bigger market team, but rosario is not that guy for us. Sure, he doesnt strike out a ton, but that in and of itself is not enough to make him a good hitter. He doesnt walk at all and doesnt have much power, so his OBP is consistently terrible. He has a career OBP of .312, with a career high of .323. He is a career WRC+ of 95, and he's been a negative defensively for 4 of his 6 big league seasons.

My issue is not trading for him, my issue is giving up much of value. Id be fine with a guy like Garrett or a guy like burdick and playing out this year and not extending him unless he shows out, but giving up multiple pieces of value and then paying him 15 million per year is ludicrous. Daniel Murphy is not an apt comparison. He might not have been belting HR"s at the clip he eventually did, but he was consistently hitting 35-40 doubles per year from the very beginning of his career, and he got on base better than Rosario does from the very beginning as well. Rosario's career high in slugging was .432 in 2019, Murphy put up slugging percentages of .473, .427, and .448 his first 3 years in the big leagues, and 3 of his first 4 years had OBP's higher than rosario's best year to date.

This is all on top of the fact that the Guardians arent trying to trade him. They are much more likely to use him to try to contend and then let him walk and hope they can get a draft pick, or they can trade him at the deadline if they are out of it. They just made it to the playoffs, they arent looking to trade him and lose a key piece for next year.

And simply not striking out a lot does not make Rosario similar to Arraez. Arraez has double the walk rate of Rosario and more than half the K rate of Rosario for his career. You're confusing not striking out with elite plate discipline. Arraez has elite plate discipline. Rosario just doesnt strike out a ridiculous amount. He still has struck out at nearly 20% for his career.

[fish16]

Third guys would need to be floor Eder/Watson/Cappe/Fulton IMO, and 2nd guy is Berry/Meyer.

I'd do it. But if they chuck if Bednar or Brubaker, it gets more interesting for sure.

Id do Rogers, Berry, Cappe + in a heartbeak. Bednar would be a nice piece but he would make the prospect's required to make that deal too much for my taste. We can find relievers elsewhere. Hell, Sixto and Meyer might be long term bullpen arms for all we know at this pont.

[lou]

Rosario aint the difference between winning 78 games and being a contender. As i said, he's a decent player, he's not that special. He doesnt get on base, he never walks, doesnt have special power, does not steal a ton of bases, and doesnt grade out all that incredibly defensively. He is a decent SS.

And to answer your question, Eury is not available. Unless you get a similarly ranked hitting prospect who is under team control for 6 years. It's not for a guy who you then have to turn around and pay 20+ million per year to. That's a surplus value loss. Eury at 6 years for cheap is a much better asset than Reynolds for 6 years and however many million you will have to pay him to extend him. Reynolds is not a guy you trade Eury for, and you can find other permutations of guys that you can get him for. If not, they can continue to hold on to an asset that depreciates daily, because they wont be trading him as no one will meet that price.

I didnt ignore your request to extend him, your price for extending him was the exact reason it would be nonsensical to trade a major piece of anything for him. Rosario is not worth 15 million to a team of the marlins payroll level. That is way too much for a player of his caliber when you have the payroll we do. It maybe makes sense to a bigger market team, but rosario is not that guy for us. Sure, he doesnt strike out a ton, but that in and of itself is not enough to make him a good hitter. He doesnt walk at all and doesnt have much power, so his OBP is consistently terrible. He has a career OBP of .312, with a career high of .323. He is a career WRC+ of 95, and he's been a negative defensively for 4 of his 6 big league seasons.

My issue is not trading for him, my issue is giving up much of value. Id be fine with a guy like Garrett or a guy like burdick and playing out this year and not extending him unless he shows out, but giving up multiple pieces of value and then paying him 15 million per year is ludicrous. Daniel Murphy is not an apt comparison. He might not have been belting HR"s at the clip he eventually did, but he was consistently hitting 35-40 doubles per year from the very beginning of his career, and he got on base better than Rosario does from the very beginning as well. Rosario's career high in slugging was .432 in 2019, Murphy put up slugging percentages of .473, .427, and .448 his first 3 years in the big leagues, and 3 of his first 4 years had OBP's higher than rosario's best year to date.

This is all on top of the fact that the Guardians arent trying to trade him. They are much more likely to use him to try to contend and then let him walk and hope they can get a draft pick, or they can trade him at the deadline if they are out of it. They just made it to the playoffs, they arent looking to trade him and lose a key piece for next year.

And simply not striking out a lot does not make Rosario similar to Arraez. Arraez has double the walk rate of Rosario and more than half the K rate of Rosario for his career. You're confusing not striking out with elite plate discipline. Arraez has elite plate discipline. Rosario just doesnt strike out a ridiculous amount. He still has struck out at nearly 20% for his career.

No shit Rosario alone doesn't do it - can you for the love of god just read for once and the way to become a contender is something like Reynolds/Bednar/Rosario and getting someone like Wacha (with not losing much on the MLB roster). They are that far away. Many good players and moves. And yes - he is GOOD so of course Cleveland wants to keep him that's why you need to really go for it if you want to improve. In this light, maybe criticizing them for moving Salas is overboard as you have to overpay to do these kind of moves via trade only with other competent teams. Since Bruce won't spend money and all (the real problem). This is the price they must pay because Bruce is cheap.

Reasonable minds can disagree on a player, but Murphy is a good comparison, you are just hung up on things we can equally criticize Arraez about (defense) but you choose to ignore on Rosario. But I reiterate, the problem is the Marlins need *a lot* of help, free agency is effectively over besides Profar, Wacha, and a few relievers and we're talking role players. No needle movers there. This team isn't winning 81 games without a massive infusion or across the board 90th percentile breakouts.

So are they going to do it, or are we really kicking the can to 2024 already? Not sure what your expectations are, but Reynolds alone isn't going to do it. Neither is Reynolds + adding Profar and Wacha (and now payroll is $115m - they going that high?).

So are we done already with the season and just watching development and waiting for the AAA pitching to arrive next year? This is a serious question. Just hoarding all the minor leaguers again but NEXT year, we will do better?

[lou]

Id do Rogers, Berry, Cappe + in a heartbeak. Bednar would be a nice piece but he would make the prospect's required to make that deal too much for my taste. We can find relievers elsewhere. Hell, Sixto and Meyer might be long term bullpen arms for all we know at this pont.

They want pitchers. I think they would be pretty happy with Rogers, Meyer/Berry/Garrett, Cappe/Fulton, and some throw-ins (McCambley, S. Reynolds, etc.). A lot of pitching and a projectable bat. Gonna take 4-5 guys and depending on how good the Marlins guys are maybe, you can recoup 1 back with Bednar/Brubacker the real top end there.

There is a mix here, but it will hurt. They should do it though, sign at least one of Profar/Wacha, and you're starting to get close and maybe now, they could be "1" player away and hello trade deadline.

[fish16]

No shit Rosario alone doesn't do it - can you for the love of god just read for once and the way to become a contender is something like Reynolds/Bednar/Rosario and getting someone like Wacha (with not losing much on the MLB roster). They are that far away. Many good players and moves. And yes - he is GOOD so of course Cleveland wants to keep him that's why you need to really go for it if you want to improve. In this light, maybe criticizing them for moving Salas is overboard as you have to overpay to do these kind of moves via trade only with other competent teams. Since Bruce won't spend money and all (the real problem). This is the price they must pay because Bruce is cheap.

Reasonable minds can disagree on a player, but Murphy is a good comparison, you are just hung up on things we can equally criticize Arraez about (defense) but you choose to ignore on Rosario. But I reiterate, the problem is the Marlins need *a lot* of help, free agency is effectively over besides Profar, Wacha, and a few relievers and we're talking role players. No needle movers there. This team isn't winning 81 games without a massive infusion or across the board 90th percentile breakouts.

So are they going to do it, or are we really kicking the can to 2024 already? Not sure what your expectations are, but Reynolds alone isn't going to do it. Neither is Reynolds + adding Profar and Wacha (and now payroll is $115m - they going that high?).

So are we done already with the season and just watching development and waiting for the AAA pitching to arrive next year? This is a serious question. Just hoarding all the minor leaguers again but NEXT year, we will do better?

Arraez has an elite tool, Rosario has none. Like ive said, which you cant refute because it's true, he doesnt get on base, he doesnt hit for much power, he doesnt field at an above average ability, he never walks, and his speed is decent but nothing special. If the price is for just a guy like Burdick and we dont sign him to an extension, sure, let's roll the dice on him for a year for cheap. The issue is you wanting to pay 15 million per year for a guy who isnt all that special.

Also, Murphy is not a good comparison, his career he was a 113 WRC+, on base of .345 (brought down by the last 2 years before he retired), slugging of .455 , BB% ok 6.3, K % of 12.33.
For Rosario's career, his WRC+ is 95, OBP of .308, slugging of .404, , bb% of just 4.4 and a k% of almost 20, all while being a pretty sizable net negative defensively for his career.

He is a decent player, all i'm saying is that trading for him and giving him 15 million per year is a move for the sake of making a move. Just because we could use a shortstop upgrade doesnt mean you go for him and then extend him for 15 million per year because the team could use a SS upgrade this year in hopes of contending. Not only does he not put you over the top for this year, but thats a terrible contract moving forward.

This is the didi gregorious conversation from years ago all over again. you dont sign players like this to big extensions/big contracts when they are mediocre to just above average players. You were all in on didi gregorious for 15+ million a year and he would have been an awful signing,. Despite a great phillies lineup, he put up -.3 WAR in 3 years for them.

If your idea of punting on this year and banking on 2024 is not making moves that help cripple your financial future for the next few years, then sure, punt to 2024. Or make a smarter move for a SS with more control that you dont have to pay right away.

Also, i think the idea that Reynolds alone doesnt put them in the mix next year potentially is untrue. It would rely on bouncebacks from Soler and Garcia (which are absolutely plausible) and Jazz staying healthy, but a team that adds Reynolds, Arraez, a healthy jazz, and normal seasons from Soler and Garcia to a team that has one of the best young rotations in baseball is absolutely a team that can hover around .500 and make a run if things go super well. Then you look to contend in 2024 with Meyer and Eury up and healthy added to an already amazing rotation.


They likely arent contending this year regardless with how good the division is, despite what we all want. Making moves to try to contend this year at the expense of taking on stupid contracts in the future is really misguided.

[fish16]

They want pitchers. I think they would be pretty happy with Rogers, Meyer/Berry/Garrett, Cappe/Fulton, and some throw-ins (McCambley, S. Reynolds, etc.). A lot of pitching and a projectable bat. Gonna take 4-5 guys and depending on how good the Marlins guys are maybe, you can recoup 1 back with Bednar/Brubacker the real top end there.

There is a mix here, but it will hurt. They should do it though, sign at least one of Profar/Wacha, and you're starting to get close and maybe now, they could be "1" player away and hello trade deadline.

Berry and Garret are not second pieces in that deal. It would be Meyer or Eder or maybe they see projection with Fulton and put him on that level too.

[fish16]

also, rosario is not a significant enough upgrade on even Wendle and they are both free agents after the upcoming year. To trade assets under team control for cheap for years to come for a minor upgrade PLUS a big long term contract when we're in a division with the Braves, Phillies, and Mets this year is foolish. If you can find someone who is productive and under control for at least 2-3+ years, sure, but Rosario aint it unless its super cheap and you dont give him an extension for a lot of money.

Or just trade for him and dont give him an extension and get more clarity after next year on whatever the fuck we have in Watson, Lewis, Cappe, etc and whether they can stick at SS.

[lou]

Arraez has an elite tool, Rosario has none. Like ive said, which you cant refute because it's true, he doesnt get on base, he doesnt hit for much power, he doesnt field at an above average ability, he never walks, and his speed is decent but nothing special. If the price is for just a guy like Burdick and we dont sign him to an extension, sure, let's roll the dice on him for a year for cheap. The issue is you wanting to pay 15 million per year for a guy who isnt all that special.

Also, Murphy is not a good comparison, his career he was a 113 WRC+, on base of .345 (brought down by the last 2 years before he retired), slugging of .455 , BB% ok 6.3, K % of 12.33.
For Rosario's career, his WRC+ is 95, OBP of .308, slugging of .404, , bb% of just 4.4 and a k% of almost 20, all while being a pretty sizable net negative defensively for his career.

He is a decent player, all i'm saying is that trading for him and giving him 15 million per year is a move for the sake of making a move. Just because we could use a shortstop upgrade doesnt mean you go for him and then extend him for 15 million per year because the team could use a SS upgrade this year in hopes of contending. Not only does he not put you over the top for this year, but thats a terrible contract moving forward.

This is the didi gregorious conversation from years ago all over again. you dont sign players like this to big extensions/big contracts when they are mediocre to just above average players. You were all in on didi gregorious for 15+ million a year and he would have been an awful signing,. Despite a great phillies lineup, he put up -.3 WAR in 3 years for them.

If your idea of punting on this year and banking on 2024 is not making moves that help cripple your financial future for the next few years, then sure, punt to 2024. Or make a smarter move for a SS with more control that you dont have to pay right away.

Also, i think the idea that Reynolds alone doesnt put them in the mix next year potentially is untrue. It would rely on bouncebacks from Soler and Garcia (which are absolutely plausible) and Jazz staying healthy, but a team that adds Reynolds, Arraez, a healthy jazz, and normal seasons from Soler and Garcia to a team that has one of the best young rotations in baseball is absolutely a team that can hover around .500 and make a run if things go super well. Then you look to contend in 2024 with Meyer and Eury up and healthy added to an already amazing rotation.


They likely arent contending this year regardless with how good the division is, despite what we all want. Making moves to try to contend this year at the expense of taking on stupid contracts in the future is really misguided.

First and foremost, I reject punting to 2024 after 2018-2022. This is not a "seven" year rebuild. They have the assets to improve now. It's time. Nothing they do can cripple their finances with how low payroll is today ($90m) and what is coming off the books and controlled moved forward. They also have less games against the division next year, so the whole its the division is also not as impactful. Their schedule is better.

Second, just want to drop here Rosario's projection among all hitters for 2023. This is total WAR.

Steamer - 56
Steamer600 - 86
Depth Charts - 61
ATC - 60
The Bat - 62
Average - 65th

But I suppose he could be 97th again like in 2022, one spot behind Ty France, a few behind Rizzo, a few ahead of jerks like Rhys Hoskins, Ronald Acuna, and other assholes, etc. Hard to argue he's not the 4th/5th best bat on a good team as a floor here.

96th sprint speed, but speed is nothing special and not elite apparently. Effectively top 10% in xBA, 20% Whiffs, 25% chase, and 30% max exit velocity, but let's just keeping emphasizing whatever internal bias you have about other team's players. He's a good player that does have warts, but who may explode with a swing tweak/approach similar to Murphy. The concept that he's worth a (relatively worthless) Burdick is *comical.* You really need to take a step back here and see the larger picture. Rosario would be the 4th-6th best player on the Marlins the second they got him.

BTW, same projections for Arraez:

Steamer - 54 (two better)
Steamer600 - 78 (eight better)
Depth Charts - 60 (one better)
ATC - 55 (five better)
The Bat - 42 (twenty better)
Average - 58th

So we like Arraez projected as the 58th best position player, and we don't like Rosario projected as the 65th best position player????? So Arraez is not an upgrade on Wendle on your logic as Arraez is the same class of player???? Ok.


Also, Reynolds alone isn't getting them to the Phillies unless you call it five guys cumulatively beat their projections (likely Jazz-3.5, Sandy-4, Garcia-1.2, Luzardo-1.9, Call it Cueto/Garrett-2 combined), and they don't lose huge chunks from anyone and some of these are scary (Catchers 3.2, Segura 2.8, DLC/Soler 2.9 combined, etc.). Reynolds gets you into a conversation of everything must go right, which is why they need something else and I would *love* for the conversation to be who might be reasonably available versus just submarining Rosario who is clearly an upgrade. Who else is out there? We betting on Profar slugging showing up because he too has a good K rate? Gurriel magically returns to 2021? This is what I want to know, and to me, SS is the best bet. Can we trade for Peraza still somehow?

[fish16]

First and foremost, I reject punting to 2024 after 2018-2022. This is not a "seven" year rebuild. They have the assets to improve now. It's time. Nothing they do can cripple their finances with how low payroll is today ($90m) and what is coming off the books and controlled moved forward. They also have less games against the division next year, so the whole its the division is also not as impactful. Their schedule is better.

Second, just want to drop here Rosario's projection among all hitters for 2023. This is total WAR.

Steamer - 56
Steamer600 - 86
Depth Charts - 61
ATC - 60
The Bat - 62
Average - 65th

But I suppose he could be 97th again like in 2022, one spot behind Ty France, a few behind Rizzo, a few ahead of jerks like Rhys Hoskins, Ronald Acuna, and other assholes, etc. Hard to argue he's not the 4th/5th best bat on a good team as a floor here.

96th sprint speed, but speed is nothing special and not elite apparently. Effectively top 10% in xBA, 20% Whiffs, 25% chase, and 30% max exit velocity, but let's just keeping emphasizing whatever internal bias you have about other team's players. He's a good player that does have warts, but who may explode with a swing tweak/approach similar to Murphy. The concept that he's worth a (relatively worthless) Burdick is *comical.* You really need to take a step back here and see the larger picture. Rosario would be the 4th-6th best player on the Marlins the second they got him.

BTW, same projections for Arraez:

Steamer - 54 (two better)
Steamer600 - 78 (eight better)
Depth Charts - 60 (one better)
ATC - 55 (five better)
The Bat - 42 (twenty better)
Average - 58th

So we like Arraez projected as the 58th best position player, and we don't like Rosario projected as the 65th best position player????? So Arraez is not an upgrade on Wendle on your logic as Arraez is the same class of player???? Ok.


Also, Reynolds alone isn't getting them to the Phillies unless you call it five guys cumulatively beat their projections (likely Jazz-3.5, Sandy-4, Garcia-1.2, Luzardo-1.9, Call it Cueto/Garrett-2 combined), and they don't lose huge chunks from anyone and some of these are scary (Catchers 3.2, Segura 2.8, DLC/Soler 2.9 combined, etc.). Reynolds gets you into a conversation of everything must go right, which is why they need something else and I would *love* for the conversation to be who might be reasonably available versus just submarining Rosario who is clearly an upgrade. Who else is out there? We betting on Profar slugging showing up because he too has a good K rate? Gurriel magically returns to 2021? This is what I want to know, and to me, SS is the best bet. Can we trade for Peraza still somehow?

it's almost as if you consistently rely on terrible projections that never turn out to be accurate. How did they rate stallings and garcia last year? what were their projections for Didi gregorious a few years ago? Baseball is the sport most prone to wild fluctuations on an annual basis, and you are consistently basing your entire analysis on nonsensical future computer projections for everything.

My entire premise is that rosario is a perfectly average to slightly above average player. He is nothing special, and he is certainly not worth 15 million per year for the next 5 years on a team like the marlins. IF they get him for cheap and let him walk in free agency next year or can re-sign him for cheap, which would make no sense for the guardians to do, it would be fine. my issue is paying him what you are saying they should extend him for, not acquiring him at all. Extension guys should be Jazz, Cabrera, Luzardo, Eury, and maybe arraez for the right price.

Also, i hate to break it to you, but this team is almost assuredly not competing this year with the mets, braves, and phillies in our division. We are in a division with the team with the highest payroll in baseball, probably the most talent in baseball, and a team that just won the national league and then added trea turner. To make moves to compete that will pay a slightly above average player 15 million per year for the next 5 years to try to compete in this particular year is really dumb.

If they get Reynolds for Rogers plus prospects, that's a phenomenal offseason and you just added 3 legit bats in Segura, Reynolds, and Arraez without sacrificing the amazing future rotation they will have quite frankly this year, but especially next year and beyond. Plus you have an outside shot at competing this year with the health going the right way and clear bounceback opportunities for Garcia and Soler. That would be huge WAR boosts in every OF position (Jazz, Reynolds, and Garcia), improvement in DH with Soler's regression to the mean and health, and likely a slightly less WAR pace with Arraez compared to Jazz but an overall improvement with Arraez being healthy. That's the avenue to compete, and it doesnt tie up big money long term to a slightly above average player in Rosario. 30 million to Garcia and Rosario is puke worthy. The avenue to compete this year is Reynolds and staying healthy. Other than that, Rosario doesnt move the needle, especially for the future money youre advocating on giving him.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

you're also cherry picking rosario's stats. He has speed but doesnt steal a ton of bases or run the bases spectacularly well (71% career sb% and marginal baserunning grades), and doesnt strike out a lot and hits for decent average. that's about it. He is poor on average exit velocity, hard hit %, xwOBA, xSLG, barrell %, bb%, chase rate, and outs above average.


Peraza im all for. You go for good, cost controlled talent, hope you scout well, and then sign your current young talent to long term extensions plus reynolds. that combined with health is the path to contention this year while not financially hamstringing yourself for the future potentially. You might not want to accept that, but with Sherman, that's the reality we are faced with.

[fish16]

Brian Anderson taking a mighty swipe at the marlins in his first Public comments since joining the brewers

[lou]

it's almost as if you consistently rely on terrible projections that never turn out to be accurate. How did they rate stallings and garcia last year? what were their projections for Didi gregorious a few years ago? Baseball is the sport most prone to wild fluctuations on an annual basis, and you are consistently basing your entire analysis on nonsensical future computer projections for everything.

My entire premise is that rosario is a perfectly average to slightly above average player. He is nothing special, and he is certainly not worth 15 million per year for the next 5 years on a team like the marlins. IF they get him for cheap and let him walk in free agency next year or can re-sign him for cheap, which would make no sense for the guardians to do, it would be fine. my issue is paying him what you are saying they should extend him for, not acquiring him at all. Extension guys should be Jazz, Cabrera, Luzardo, Eury, and maybe arraez for the right price.

Also, i hate to break it to you, but this team is almost assuredly not competing this year with the mets, braves, and phillies in our division. We are in a division with the team with the highest payroll in baseball, probably the most talent in baseball, and a team that just won the national league and then added trea turner. To make moves to compete that will pay a slightly above average player 15 million per year for the next 5 years to try to compete in this particular year is really dumb.

If they get Reynolds for Rogers plus prospects, that's a phenomenal offseason and you just added 3 legit bats in Segura, Reynolds, and Arraez without sacrificing the amazing future rotation they will have quite frankly this year, but especially next year and beyond. Plus you have an outside shot at competing this year with the health going the right way and clear bounceback opportunities for Garcia and Soler. That would be huge WAR boosts in every OF position (Jazz, Reynolds, and Garcia), improvement in DH with Soler's regression to the mean and health, and likely a slightly less WAR pace with Arraez compared to Jazz but an overall improvement with Arraez being healthy. That's the avenue to compete, and it doesnt tie up big money long term to a slightly above average player in Rosario. 30 million to Garcia and Rosario is puke worthy. The avenue to compete this year is Reynolds and staying healthy. Other than that, Rosario doesnt move the needle, especially for the future money youre advocating on giving him.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb

you're also cherry picking rosario's stats. He has speed but doesnt steal a ton of bases or run the bases spectacularly well (71% career sb% and marginal baserunning grades), and doesnt strike out a lot and hits for decent average. that's about it. He is poor on average exit velocity, hard hit %, xwOBA, xSLG, barrell %, bb%, chase rate, and outs above average.


Peraza im all for. You go for good, cost controlled talent, hope you scout well, and then sign your current young talent to long term extensions plus reynolds. that combined with health is the path to contention this year while not financially hamstringing yourself for the future potentially. You might not want to accept that, but with Sherman, that's the reality we are faced with.

You are not smarter than fangraphs and baseball savant. You are missing the forest in the trees with Rosario, but it's OK. It's just a recurring theme this offseason. Let's love the 58th best projected bat in the league, but hate the 65th. Also there is this, he's one of the better base runners in baseball - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/amed-ros...t-stop-running. Another fun quote from that article "An Amed Rosario with league-average swing and groundball rates would be a star." Basically what I just said. Bet on tools with high floors at 27 years old. The floor is fine, the ceiling is how you win and gain value as a small market club. I think you just like to argue when the predominant wisdom of the entire industry is against you.

But you're right about the bold and it has nothing to do with the Mets, Braves, and Phillies. No out side shot at all about competing this year, it's whimsical to project this team to 88 games. So I guess we're just circling 2024 and keep moving the goal posts. Let's keep moving them every light and keep being gaslighted by the front office? Sounds fun.

[lou]

Brian Anderson taking a mighty swipe at the marlins in his first Public comments since joining the brewers

Just post the quote:

"I want to be with a winning team and a winning culture and be part of that fun baseball again. That’s more what I’m looking forward to than anything. Third base, first base, outfield, it doesn’t really matter to me."

He's not wrong.

[fish16]

Just post the quote:

"I want to be with a winning team and a winning culture and be part of that fun baseball again. That’s more what I’m looking forward to than anything. Third base, first base, outfield, it doesn’t really matter to me."

He's not wrong.

Not the quote i was referring to: “I’m just excited to be with an organization who’s focus is really on winning and competing at every level. I think that’s something I’m looking forward to.”