2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[Lee Stone]

Now we're cooking! Baseball Reference projects 7 homers and 50 rbi for Arraez in the coming season. Wait, that sucks. As does his total lack of speed and marginal glove at 2B. (a five-ten or less 1B is no positive either).

Chisholm could have moved to CF (as suggested multiple times) last season to improve the team. Segura could play 2B this coming year (his best defensive position). Lopez or another pitcher could have been traded for a young 3B with upside and pop in the bat.

Per Baseballtradevalues, Lopez alone was worth far more than Arraez. Couldn't agree more. While a lot of ridiculous trade scenarios can be conjured based on individual trade values attached to players, the site is nearly always very close to valuations on trades that actually take place. This deal was an exception. The Twins received nearly double the value that Arraez had. That suggests a huge miss for the Marlins GM. If Royce Lewis had been included in the deal, it would have worked for me.

This is the second deal in which the Twins fleeced the Marlins in the last year. The first was when the Fish basically traded Dylan Lee to the Twins by taking Jacob Berry in the draft with the pick prior to the Twins, leaving Minnesota with the vastly better prospect in Lee. Like Arraez, Berry was/is a one-tool guy.

I can easily see Jacob Amaya as shortsop on opening day.

[Lee Stone]

Twins website take on the deal:

While Arraez was a fan-favorite whose infectious energy permeated throughout the team, 2022 was likely his peak. A small, often-injured player who plays poor defense at every position, offers little power, and has an average walk rate only has so much value in today’s game. If Arraez’s average takes a small step back, even if it’s just due to bad luck, there’s not much he can offer a team that wants to be in championship contention.

Going into his second of four arbitration years, Arraez also isn’t as cheap as he used to be. He will be paid either $5 million or $6.1 million in 2023, depending on his arbitration outcome, and will easily eclipse $10 million by 2025. Arraez’s presence and unique skillset will be missed by the team, but the Twins sold high on what is likely to be a declining asset.

For whatever it’s worth, the general consensus around baseball media seems to be that the Twins won this trade handily.

Personal note: This isn't to say that I wouldn't have traded Pablo to Minnesota ... for Royce Lewis.

[lou]

Rosario and Michael Taylor couldn’t be further from reality. Rosario is a mediocre player on a 1 year deal
who absolutely shouldn’t get a long term deal. If we give him a long term deal it’s dumb. There a reason why he hasn’t gotten a long term deal


michael Taylor similarly sucks. Despite whatever stats that show that Michael Taylor isn’t terrible, he is awful and has been his entire career

Rosario has performances of 2-Covid-2.4-2.4 WAR the last 3 full seasons and fits what the Marlins are looking for with contact (16.6% K last year, 19.7% career). He is also turning 27 so there is upside. The fact he was traded and Cleveland didn't extend him because who knew what he was coming off covid, plus their internal MI depth doesn't suggest he shouldn't be an extension target now. The only players on the Marlins projected to be better than him are Sandy, Jazz, and Arraez, and I note FG already scaled Arraez down from last night on their projections to a 3.3 WAR guy. Still great, but obviously the kneejerk reaction last night seems optimistic. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=20

Michael Taylor is an elite defender who can hit lefties a little (career .722 OPS). He's exactly what they need if they can't get someone like Reynolds. Cheap and fits a role around Jazz in CF.

[lou]

The fact that you never realize how ridiculous and how terrible your war projections are on a yearly basis make your posts worthless. You take 0 stock ever on how terrible either your projections or the projections you rely on are

You are not smarter than baseball savant and fangraphs

[fish16]

You are not smarter than baseball savant and fangraphs

Didn’t say I am, but they are terrible at projecting war. Your projections are consistently nowhere close. Like Jacob stallings being projected for 3 war and he was negative

[fish16]

Rosario has performances of 2-Covid-2.4-2.4 WAR the last 3 full seasons and fits what the Marlins are looking for with contact (16.6% K last year, 19.7% career). He is also turning 27 so there is upside. The fact he was traded and Cleveland didn't extend him because who knew what he was coming off covid, plus their internal MI depth doesn't suggest he shouldn't be an extension target now. The only players on the Marlins projected to be better than him are Sandy, Jazz, and Arraez, and I note FG already scaled Arraez down from last night on their projections to a 3.3 WAR guy. Still great, but obviously the kneejerk reaction last night seems optimistic. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=20

Michael Taylor is an elite defender who can hit lefties a little (career .722 OPS). He's exactly what they need if they can't get someone like Reynolds. Cheap and fits a role around Jazz in CF.

“Who can hit lefties a little (career .722 ops)” is a hilarious sentence. Also Rosario is a decent player, but he’s not a significant enough upgrade on wendle to justify the cost. The play is reynolds or another left fielder. If Rosario has multiple years of team control, sure, but he’s not worth what he would want in an extension

[lou]

After everything that happened today, the next move has to be for a SS if they're serious about making this team competitive, right? Unless you are really high on Amaya, you don't really have anyone on the team or close in the system capable of being an everyday SS. It's a premium position, but it should be easier to find one of those than it would be to find a good CF at this point, and I hope that's the plan, and why Jazz was moved to CF. I'd be looking for a Brandon Marsh type asset that was once seen as having big upside, but their value has depressed a bit.

100%. I posted this a page or two back about a longterm plan. They can't possibly think Amaya is a future starter as why would the Dodgers have traded him? I imagine this would be their ideal scenario in roughly 2 years:

Fortes, ______ (Mack coming)
Berry, ______
Arraez, Edwards
_____, Amaya
Groshans (Cappe coming)
DLC, Sanchez/Bleday
Jazz
Garcia

The two largest bats not listed above are Watson and Lewis who would be on the horizon with Mack/Cappe. Is Watson even going to land at SS as he already gets floated at 2B, and Lewis is definitely a 2B.? Plus there is always the scenario Jazz moves back and they just accept Arraez as the 1B/DH around Berry or he becomes this very mobile 1B/2B/LF/DH guy. Plus, Jazz can always move back to 2B if he doesn't work out. What I'm saying is, 2B is likely figured out for quite some time.

If I'm looking at short and longterm needs assuming Jazz/Arraez are going to be fine in CF/2B for awhile, it's this:

1 - Shortstop. Short and longterm. Could be a real opportunity to upgrade right now with someone like Rosario and Wendle getting shot out. Watson is forever away, Amaya is a backup potential. A stud SS would be HUGE. Did they see FA this year????

2 - 1B/LF/DH upgrade - Cooper and DLC may be OK this year, but certainly they shouldn't be blocking anyone if an improvement is out there short term. Long term, they have Berry here and obviously DLC/Sancez/Bleday/Burdick/Jerar are all skeptical players. So a longterm 1B makes sense here opposite Berry as there is some hope one of those LF work out. And I think they get this since they targeted Casas already and were willing to spend some money on Abreu/Turner/Drury even if those were shorter term guys.

3 - Reassessment of defensive alignment of Arraez/Jazz and if they have to move, CF may swing back to the biggest issue. This is a next year thing, but short term, they could get a dedicated 4th CF/OF who can it lefties. Fish16 aside, this is a cheap player like Michael Taylor.


I like the idea of a former top prospect struggling and taking a swing on them ala the SS version of Marsh, but not sure who that may be. Will have to look around. Rosario certainly is a more dedicated/expensive option here that could work. The Red Sox guy Rafaela also makes some sense here if they can peel just him off. No Casas. He's not helping now, but might very quickly. A hybrid SS/CF would really be incredible on that depth chart above assuming Amaya could platoon half the time you know.

[Lee Stone]

You are not smarter than baseball savant and fangraphs

Lou, you could add "and the average 12-year-old" to that and you'd get no objection from me. Just sayin'.

[lou]

Didn’t say I am, but they are terrible at projecting war. Your projections are consistently nowhere close. Like Jacob stallings being projected for 3 war and he was negative

You are not smarter than baseball savant and fangraphs

[lou]

“Who can hit lefties a little (career .722 ops)” is a hilarious sentence. Also Rosario is a decent player, but he’s not a significant enough upgrade on wendle to justify the cost. The play is reynolds or another left fielder. If Rosario has multiple years of team control, sure, but he’s not worth what he would want in an extension

You should probably go check out what offense looks like in baseball these days. We're in a pitching era. Maybe start with Varsho, Mullins, Carlson, Grisham, and Straw, i.e. center fielders, and see what their output is. Guys aren't all hitting .800+ OPS now.

[fish16]

You are not smarter than baseball savant and fangraphs

Again, didn’t say I am. That doesn’t make their projections anywhere close to accurate

[fish16]

You should probably go check out what offense looks like in baseball these days. We're in a pitching era. Maybe start with Varsho, Mullins, Carlson, Grisham, and Straw, i.e. center fielders, and see what their output is. Guys aren't all hitting .800+ OPS now.

That doesn’t make a guy good against lefties with a .722 ops. If that’s their strong platoon side, they aren’t a quality player

[fish16]

Lou, you could add "and the average 12-year-old" to that and you'd get no objection from me. Just sayin'.

Coming from you that’s hilarious. You evaluate baseball players like a literal 12 year old

[Lee Stone]

Coming from you that’s hilarious. You evaluate baseball players like a literal 12 year old

What does "a literal 12-year-old" even mean? Literal as opposed to what? An eleven- or thirteen-year-old?

[lou]

That doesn’t make a guy good against lefties with a .722 ops. If that’s their strong platoon side, they aren’t a quality player

If the Marlins got Michael Taylor, he'd obviously be a starter vs LHP, pitch in defense after the 7th inning nearly all games, and would be an actual backup plan to Jazz struggling at a radical new position he has never played. He is Wendle/Rojas/Berti but a CF. There is nothing wrong with him at all. And since you ignored, a low/mid .700 OPS is a very solid starter these days if they play good defense. In fact, a high .600 OPS guy is if at a premium defensive position (look at Mateo in Baltimore). Offense is -way- down and not everyone can be an .800 OPS bat with relievers decimating everyone these days.

Sure, Reynolds is better duh, if that is your big point here. But I imagine the third player in a deal for him is better than the 1st player for Taylor, so this *could* work if they also do a SS upgrade (as Rosario would be cheap - as you said 1 year of control) and get a pitcher like Wacha and a closer. Everything is value, a collection of 3-4 guys can do the same thing as Reynolds and might be smarter keeping more premium arms/prospects.

Also, maybe you just sign Profar (similar $$$ to Rosario), move Berti and keep Wendle. Use trade assets from Berti/farm to get Taylor.

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper (Arraez plays a lot here)
Arraez, Profar (Jazz plays some here)
Wendle (Segura plays some here)
Segura (Arraez plays some here)
DLC, Sanchez (Profar plays some here)
Jazz, Taylor
Garcia
Soler

Jazz would need to play some 2B/SS in this alignment here and there so maybe you don't want to do that, but so be it. Maybe Groshans (or Amaya?) would just beat out Sanchez also and then that team makes a ton of positional sense even if yes, it is lacking a star bat like Reynolds.

Add Wacha and get a 1 WAR RP, and that team is is striking distance to Philly. Not quite there, but Jazz/Sandy having 6 WAR years, and Rogers/Luzardo averaging into 3 WAR guys and you're there quickly. And that's nickel and diming from here with Profar, Wacha, M. Taylor, and "a real closer."

This is the Marlins. It's thinking cheap and trying to extract value wherever you can.