2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

It’s 5 major lineup upgrades, a healthy season from jazz, and obvious bounce backs from soler and Garcia without losing the great rotation and improving the bullpen. It’s a playoff contender. But you’d need to see 5 games of qualify play before anointing the team as the best team ever. The only missing piece is ben Meyer

Pablo and Rogers is a big loss even if the counter to that is all those bats + Cueto. That team would be putting a lot of faith into Cabrera and Garrett, as well as Cueto being solid enough at his age and Luzardo having a break out/continued performance over more innings. You'd have to make those moves to get the longterm bats, but the rotation would be really flimsy as Sixto and Eury would have to be relied on (you put Eder in the Rogers deal so he's not around) and frankly, I can see 150 innings from Sixto/Eury in 2023, as well as -0-. Big picture, adding someone like Wacha to that team above as a longman/6th SP and say, Reyes for the bullpen, would be really helpful as the starters may not throw huge innings after Sandy. I'd say that team could hang with the Cards/Phils/Brewers as a contender, but hard to put them over all of them right away. However, the Marlins would probably have the most upside in the group with the pitching and very radical lineup upgrades if everything clicked, they stay healthy, and have good 1 run luck with a better bullpen and not pitching right handers against left handers like Don did. Still annoyed at that Arizona game he's throwing righties against Varsho and Smith.

Also to mention - Bleier has a $3.5m contract, he's going nowhere.

[fish16]

Pablo and Rogers is a big loss even if the counter to that is all those bats + Cueto. That team would be putting a lot of faith into Cabrera and Garrett, as well as Cueto being solid enough at his age and Luzardo having a break out/continued performance over more innings. You'd have to make those moves to get the longterm bats, but the rotation would be really flimsy as Sixto and Eury would have to be relied on (you put Eder in the Rogers deal so he's not around) and frankly, I can see 150 innings from Sixto/Eury in 2023, as well as -0-. Big picture, adding someone like Wacha to that team above as a longman/6th SP and say, Reyes for the bullpen, would be really helpful as the starters may not throw huge innings after Sandy. I'd say that team could hang with the Cards/Phils/Brewers as a contender, but hard to put them over all of them right away. However, the Marlins would probably have the most upside in the group with the pitching and very radical lineup upgrades if everything clicked, they stay healthy, and have good 1 run luck with a better bullpen and not pitching right handers against left handers like Don did. Still annoyed at that Arizona game he's throwing righties against Varsho and Smith.

Also to mention - Bleier has a $3.5m contract, he's going nowhere.

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Garrett with Sixto, Eury, and Castano and next year Fulton and Meyer in the wings is better and has more rotation depth than just about every team in the league. We're building a team with a 100 million payroll compared to teams spending 2-3 times as much as us, not every aspect of the team is going to be built to withstand multiple injuries. its absolutely not ideal, and there is injury risk for this year until eury is ready next year, but it's absolutely worth it for those lineup additions.

[rmc523]

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Garrett with Sixto, Eury, and Castano and next year Fulton and Meyer in the wings is better and has more rotation depth than just about every team in the league. We're building a team with a 100 million payroll compared to teams spending 2-3 times as much as us, not every aspect of the team is going to be built to withstand multiple injuries. its absolutely not ideal, and there is injury risk for this year until eury is ready next year, but it's absolutely worth it for those lineup additions.

Then we'll be back in the same position with not enough pitching. I think bringing in another guy is a good idea.

[lou]

Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Garrett with Sixto, Eury, and Castano and next year Fulton and Meyer in the wings is better and has more rotation depth than just about every team in the league. We're building a team with a 100 million payroll compared to teams spending 2-3 times as much as us, not every aspect of the team is going to be built to withstand multiple injuries. its absolutely not ideal, and there is injury risk for this year until eury is ready next year, but it's absolutely worth it for those lineup additions.

Sixto, Eury, and Castano (OOO has to be on team) is the definition of "really flimsy" 6th-8th SP. I don't disagree with you resources suggests they can't have great backup plans with every aspect of the team, but SP is likely the last place you go in with that mindframe. I did agree with you here - it's worth the lineup additions ditching Pablo, Rogers, Eder, and Salas, I'm just saying. Wacha is 100+ innings and another veteran reliever like Reyes really really helps out here if that's the plan. If costs are an issue, keep Cooper versus Profar and use that on pitching (which is probably a better idea anyways).


Also if $100m is the line in the sand, this is roughly $100m. This is Pablo to Twins, Rogers to Pirates, and Bleier sent anywhere as his bucks have to go.

Fortes, Stallings
Cooper (Arraez)
Jazz, Arraez
Wendle
Segura, Berti
Reynolds, DLC
Kepler
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cueto, Cabrera, Garrett
Floro, Chargois, Enright, Nance, Brazoban
Scott, Okert, Castano


If we are trying to fit in multiple guys like Chapman/Wacha/Reyes, or Profar, etc., other payroll will have to move out (Stallings $3.3m, Cooper $4.2m, Berti $2.3m, Floro $3.9m, and Scott $2.8m would be the real options here). They kind of need all those guys, so this plan just suggests Bruce would have to spike to $110m with some 1 year pitching and 2024 is *likely* cheaper as Eury/Meyer/Bender/Fulton/Groshans/Edwards/Amaya/etc. can supplant expiring contracts (Wendle $6m, likely Soler opt-out $9m, etc.).

Basically, it's the continued story - $110m is probably a really good team and $130m would have been a great team but that ship sailed

[lou]

Basically, this is probably $110m


Pablo/Bleier/Prospect --- > Arraez/Kepler
Rogers/Salas/Eder/Prospect/Prospect ----> Reynolds
FA Chapman
FA Wacha
FA Reyes
DFA Castano


Fortes, Stallings
Cooper (Arraez helps a lot here)
Jazz, Arraez
Wendle (Segura vs LHP)
Segura, Berti
Reynolds, DLC
Kepler (DLC vs LHP)
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cueto, Cabrera, Garrett
Reyes, Floro, Chargois, Enright, Wacha
Chapman, Scott, Okert

40 Man Bats - Jerar, Edwards, Amaya, Groshans, Sanchez, Bleday, Burdick
40 Man Arms - Sixto, Nance, Nardi, Simpson, Reynolds, Soriano, Villalobos/Brazoban
Mid Season Potential - Eury, Fulton
Longterm DL - Meyer, Bender


This is a pretty good looking team if they could pull this off.

[fish16]

Basically, this is probably $110m


Pablo/Bleier/Prospect --- > Arraez/Kepler
Rogers/Salas/Eder/Prospect/Prospect ----> Reynolds
FA Chapman
FA Wacha
FA Reyes
DFA Castano


Fortes, Stallings
Cooper (Arraez helps a lot here)
Jazz, Arraez
Wendle (Segura vs LHP)
Segura, Berti
Reynolds, DLC
Kepler (DLC vs LHP)
Garcia
Soler

Sandy, Luzardo, Cueto, Cabrera, Garrett
Reyes, Floro, Chargois, Enright, Wacha
Chapman, Scott, Okert

40 Man Bats - Jerar, Edwards, Amaya, Groshans, Sanchez, Bleday, Burdick
40 Man Arms - Sixto, Nance, Nardi, Simpson, Reynolds, Soriano, Villalobos/Brazoban
Mid Season Potential - Eury, Fulton
Longterm DL - Meyer, Bender


This is a pretty good looking team if they could pull this off.

Get rid of cooper to a big market team who can afford him as a part time player, slot arraez in at 1b, sign profar and slot him in at SS, either trade Wendle's expiring or use him as a super utility guy (or like i said trade him and use berti in that role), I like that a lot better. then trade for Reynolds with Rogers and prospects. I'm done with cooper. He cant stay healthy. It's proven. He's played less than half the available games since he's been here.

And for the record, i'm all for signing another innings eater, i just dont think they do it. I just think that while of course they could use more depth for this year, the truly terrible lineup is a more pressing need, and the top 3 of Cabrera, Sandy, and Luzardo, combined with Cueto coming off a great year, is more than enough. We're not going to be able to withstand injuries, but we literally have never been able to do that. It's part of the deal with a small market team.


C- Fortes
1b- Arraez-
2b- Jazz
SS- Profar
3b- Segura
LF- REynolds
CF- Kepler
RF_ Garcia
DH- Soler
Bench- Berti, Wendle, Stallings, DLC, Sanchez/Bleday
SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Garrett. then you have Castano, Sixto, and eventually Eury and Fulton towards the end of the year or more likely 2024.
RP- Enright, Chargois, Chapman, Floro, Bleier, Okert, Scott, Castano?

If Chapman is truly back and in shape and filthy, that's a huge huge huge improvement on last years team.

[fish16]

Castano DFA'd to make room for cueto. I think he will clear and then i think he would have the choice to go to free agency or stick around. I'm not sure which of these guys other than Tommy nance needed to be added to the 40 man or risk going in the rule 5 draft, but we have a lot of reliever fluff on the 40 man between Simpson, Villalobos, Nardi, Reynolds, Soriano, in addition to Nance.

[Namaste]

Bauer serially beat the shit out of women during sex. Chapman has a single incident going on 7 years ago and was never charged because the woman making the claims didn’t cooperate. Both are terrible, but to act like they are similar is not accurate. He also served a suspension for is 6 years ago and hasn’t had any incidents similar since

Chapman was suspended 30 games, Bauer was initially suspended for like 2 full years

I’m not a Bauer fan by any means. I thought he was a tool before all of the allegations etc.


Was Chapman charged with a crime? Because Bauer wasn’t.

Bauer served his suspension like Chapman.

[lou]

Get rid of cooper to a big market team who can afford him as a part time player, slot arraez in at 1b, sign profar and slot him in at SS, either trade Wendle's expiring or use him as a super utility guy (or like i said trade him and use berti in that role), I like that a lot better. then trade for Reynolds with Rogers and prospects. I'm done with cooper. He cant stay healthy. It's proven. He's played less than half the available games since he's been here.

And for the record, i'm all for signing another innings eater, i just dont think they do it. I just think that while of course they could use more depth for this year, the truly terrible lineup is a more pressing need, and the top 3 of Cabrera, Sandy, and Luzardo, combined with Cueto coming off a great year, is more than enough. We're not going to be able to withstand injuries, but we literally have never been able to do that. It's part of the deal with a small market team.


C- Fortes
1b- Arraez-
2b- Jazz
SS- Profar
3b- Segura
LF- REynolds
CF- Kepler
RF_ Garcia
DH- Soler
Bench- Berti, Wendle, Stallings, DLC, Sanchez/Bleday
SP- Sandy, Luzardo, Cabrera, Cueto, Garrett. then you have Castano, Sixto, and eventually Eury and Fulton towards the end of the year or more likely 2024.
RP- Enright, Chargois, Chapman, Floro, Bleier, Okert, Scott, Castano?

If Chapman is truly back and in shape and filthy, that's a huge huge huge improvement on last years team.

Profar is not a SS. You would play Jazz, Segura, and Wendle, maybe Berti, over him there. But he'd be fine 1B/2B/LF. You have 1 too many bats with Sanchez/Bleday but they can just go to AAA. Swapping Cooper/Profar would add at least $5-7m in payroll, but if you didn't bring in extra pitching (like I did above), that's still a $110m team. Or you could do as you mentioned, trade Wendle, save that $6m, add in Groshans as the last infielder, and use those funds for pitching. Still $110m and from my team above is down Cooper and Wendle, but adding Profar and Groshans/whoever effectively.

Cooper is also better than you think he is, he just has to stay healthy. He was very very good before July in 2022. 270 PA, .315/.381/.458 (yes with a .400 BABIP but he is a career .354 BABIP guy as he hits the ball hard so that's still hitting effectively .270), and a 1.6 WAR (3+ WAR pace). He could be a .270/.350/.425+ hitter at a 2+ WAR pace pretty quickly which is actually not bad these days at 1B. He would be a part time player getting 90+ starts if they got Arraez also, which TBH is kind of perfect and sets Cooper up as a 450 PA player. Plenty of off days. This is Cooper's contract year. This is his moment to get paid, so just baby him like Minnesota babies Buxton. Hs statcast is pretty awesome besides some whiffs and he is slow - https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb. Just saying here, for a team needing to get lucky, this is definitely a get lucky player that just needs to stay healthy and bet on his first contract year. I'd keep him for $4.2m and just get him help. Arraez would be ideal at this point. Profar would be OK just because he's versatile. This is why I was saying Longoria was the perfect target earlier in the offseason but unfortunately didn't happen as he is staying home.

We'll see. The question here is really, are they willing to spend $110m and can they actually get those Twins guys and Reynolds?

[Namaste]

There is something about Garrett Cooper that make people despise him and underestimate how good his bat is. I have a friend in real life who actually thinks he’s the worst player on the team.

[rmc523]

There is something about Garrett Cooper that make people despise him and underestimate how good his bat is. I have a friend in real life who actually thinks he’s the worst player on the team.

I think it's just the fact that he's never around because he's always hurt.

[fish16]

I’m not a Bauer fan by any means. I thought he was a tool before all of the allegations etc.


Was Chapman charged with a crime? Because Bauer wasn’t.

Bauer served his suspension like Chapman.

I’m not here to compare two terrible crimes. Bauer wasn’t formally charged but he was issued two seperate restraining orders and had like 3-5 accusers. Chapman had a single terrible incident 6 years ago and the charges were dropped. Not sure what we’re doing here. Bauers suspension was literally 10.8 times longer than Chapman so that should tell you something about the seriousness of the incidents relative to one another

[fish16]

There is something about Garrett Cooper that make people despise him and underestimate how good his bat is. I have a friend in real life who actually thinks he’s the worst player on the team.

Could be the fact that he’s never available. He’s not bad, he’s pretty average and never available because he can’t stay healthy. That’s not a valuable asset to rely on

[lou]

There is something about Garrett Cooper that make people despise him and underestimate how good his bat is. I have a friend in real life who actually thinks he’s the worst player on the team.

Given everyone else we can point too, that's a pretty bad take. Analytics say, he's somewhere like the 8th-12th guy on the team - https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=20

This is also consistently saying they need 5-7 more WAR to get to the Phillies.

Which is frustrating because if you say jettison Pablo, Rogers, and replace the bottom PA from Bleday/Sanchez/Groshans/LeBlanc/Amaya in a hypothetical and add Arraez, Kepler, and Reynolds... you probably only net 2-3 wins once you scale up some SP innings from Luzardo/Garrett to replace at least one of the SP. So they are still that player away..... hence the whole, sign Chapman, Wacha, and Reyes and maybe that adds you another 2+ wins and you're just barely at a contender and needing your core guys to collectively beat their projections (Jazz - 3.2, Reynolds 3.9, Arraez 2.9, Kepler 1.9, Soler 1.4, Garcia 1.2, Sandy 4, Cueto .9(!), Cabrera 1.3, Floro/Scott/Okert/Chargois combined 1.1, etc. etc.) and not have the more skeptical projections kill you (Catchers 3.2, DLC 1.5). I'd take that bet, but this frankly is doing ALL of that, or keeping Pablo and only jettisoning Rogers and the farm to find 2 big bat upgrades plus sign those relievers. This is just the continued, couldn't they have just signed Nimmo here? So frustrating.

[fish16]

Given everyone else we can point too, that's a pretty bad take. Analytics say, he's somewhere like the 8th-12th guy on the team - https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...=ALL&teamid=20

This is also consistently saying they need 5-7 more WAR to get to the Phillies.

Which is frustrating because if you say jettison Pablo, Rogers, and replace the bottom PA from Bleday/Sanchez/Groshans/LeBlanc/Amaya in a hypothetical and add Arraez, Kepler, and Reynolds... you probably only net 2-3 wins once you scale up some SP innings from Luzardo/Garrett to replace at least one of the SP. So they are still that player away..... hence the whole, sign Chapman, Wacha, and Reyes and maybe that adds you another 2+ wins and you're just barely at a contender and needing your core guys to collectively beat their projections (Jazz - 3.2, Reynolds 3.9, Arraez 2.9, Kepler 1.9, Soler 1.4, Garcia 1.2, Sandy 4, Cueto .9(!), Cabrera 1.3, Floro/Scott/Okert/Chargois combined 1.1, etc. etc.) and not have the more skeptical projections kill you (Catchers 3.2, DLC 1.5). I'd take that bet, but this frankly is doing ALL of that, or keeping Pablo and only jettisoning Rogers and the farm to find 2 big bat upgrades plus sign those relievers. This is just the continued, couldn't they have just signed Nimmo here? So frustrating.

Signing Nimmo for 8 years at 20 million a year when he will be 30 in march would have been idiotic. they will never compete that way. the focus needs to be on why the fuck they cant develop a single hitter and get good production for cheap in the lineup like they have done so well with the rotation. Players dont hit free agency for the most part till they are 30. Unless that type of player is willing to take 4-5 deals and less, they would be idiotic to venture into the waters of the Bogaerts, Turners, Nimmo's, etc. They would simply never be able to build a competent team that way unless sherman himself wins the lottery.