2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[lou]

Just looked, with Segna and Mets luxury tax….

2023 Mets Payroll = Marlins 2018-2022 payroll + expected 2023 payroll + $30-50m

Should we care?

[fish16]

Just looked, with Segna and Mets luxury tax….

2023 Mets Payroll = Marlins 2018-2022 payroll + expected 2023 payroll + $30-50m

Should we care?

i vary between being pissed at baseball for allowing it and just pissed at myself for being a marlins fan when when i know we cant have nice things. every single team in pretty much every sport that sells now goes to a money tycoon and we happen to sell to a guy with 0 money relatively. just such a marlins thing to happen.

[Todd]

i vary between being pissed at baseball for allowing it and just pissed at myself for being a marlins fan when when i know we cant have nice things. every single team in pretty much every sport that sells now goes to a money tycoon and we happen to sell to a guy with 0 money relatively. just such a marlins thing to happen.

The Marlins have the 29th wealthiest owner and is one of 3 teams not owned by a billionaire(Brewers and Reds are the others).

[lou]

The Marlins have the 29th wealthiest owner and is one of 3 teams not owned by a billionaire(Brewers and Reds are the others).

I call bullshit (not to you, Bruce)

Brewers / Reds payrolls --- > Marlins
2018 - $100m / $101m --- > $99.5m*
2019 - $122.5m / $126m --- > $72m
2021 - $99m / $122m --- > $57m
2022 - $131m / $114m --- > $80m

Milwaukee average - $113m
Cincy average - $115m
Miami average - $77m

(*Prado, Castro, Chen, Ziegler, Tazawa, and E. Volquez (who was released) amounted to $63m. Yikes)

Media markets

Miami/FTL/Palm - Hard to tell, but it would be somewhere 8th-10th once Philly/Boston suburbs included. If we don't lump in Palm Beach, it's 11
Cincinatti - 33rd
Milwaukee 43


My question here is - is it unrealistic to have a $113-115m four year average for 2023-2026, because you can easily hit that target with Correa for the next 3 years.

It'll get interesting in 2026.... if they did sign Correa, assume $30m for him, $17m for Sandy, and last Jazz arbitration could easily be three guys for $60-65m... but the only other internal expensive guys would be Luzardo and Rogers in last year of arbitration (if still around.... maybe Sandy/Eury/Cabrera/Eder/Fulton are a full rotation at this point?) and some other guys (Fortes, Groshans, DLC, Sanchez, Cabrera, Garrett, Bender, etc. may be in arb 1-2... conservatively we could maybe assume this group if all stay $20-25m). Considering Mack, Berry, Watson, Salas/Cappe, Eury, Meyer, Eder, large variety of reliever types, and others may be club controlled (let's assume 13 guys for $10m).... they might be able to field an internal roster without Rogers/Luzardo of around 22-23 guys for $100m, so it'll be really tight to have anything worthwhile on top of this, but like how about dealing with this problem in 2-3 off seasons? To note, if they did get a club controlled longterm CF for Pablo/Rogers/Luzardo at some point, that would help immensely so they would presumably be looking at corner players or fancy relievers. B. Reynolds on an extension would radically impact this (+$20m minimum), but there would be ways to shed salary around him. In any event, maybe Bruce would splurge a little higher here for a single year, or the team is a little lower 23-25 to help pay for hopefully a very contending 2026 team that has the current core in their last years and the Berry/Meyer/Eurys are all a few years in with feet wet.


Basically, I don't care how poor Bruce cries. He can do a $115m average for 4 years like fellow sisters of the poor Cincinatti and Milwaukee and blow the team up if they suck.

In 2023 terms payroll wise, this is effectively:

Correa
Trading Rogers/Luzardo for Alek Thomas
Drury/Turner/Longoria
Wendle or Rojas payroll must be shed somewhere
And there might be budget for another $3-5m pitcher on top of this depending on Correa's deal structure

I don't think this is a lot to ask for IMO

[sports24/7]

It's still such a farce that MLB picked this ownership group. It's not surprising, because Manfred is the worst commissioner in any sport in my lifetime, but it's one of those things that looked bad at the time, and looks worse now.

I am encouraged, that the local media is blasting the Marlins right now, though. It's kind of funny because there's a lot of time in the offseason, and they still could make some moves, but while everyone has always known the Marlins are cheap, and get hammered during fire sales, the fact that nobody really covers them outside of Mish, kind of lets them slide by most years. So seeing bunch of local media members like Barry Jackson, Will Manso, and Clay Ferraro chiding them for being cheap and inactive is refreshing, and might just put some extra pressure on them to do something and/or maybe even force this ownership group to sell sooner than they might have if the noise gets louder.

[fish16]

i keep seeing Lee mention Brandon Drury and I cant think of a worse signing. Not only is he going to get a decent amount of money, but he has a horrendous track record outside of this past year. He had 2 decent years in Arizona to begin his career, then was awful or played almost no big league games in 4 straight years, then had a good year last year in an amazing hitters park before being mediocre for the padres after he was traded there after the deadline. I get its the most recent thing he's seen and Lee has 0 perspective, but good god that guy has the look of someone who comes here and is terrible written all over him. that might be worse than the garcia signing dollar for dollar if he is to get a multi year deal. Garcia's is obviously worse because of the years, but at least he had a track record of 3 really good years in the not so distant past. Drury had an .813 OPS last year and yet his career OPS is still just .736 in over 2000 ab's, with an OBP for his career of just over .300. The guy is not any kind of meaningful player.

[rmc523]

i keep seeing Lee mention Brandon Drury and I cant think of a worse signing. Not only is he going to get a decent amount of money, but he has a horrendous track record outside of this past year. He had 2 decent years in Arizona to begin his career, then was awful or played almost no big league games in 4 straight years, then had a good year last year in an amazing hitters park before being mediocre for the padres after he was traded there after the deadline. I get its the most recent thing he's seen and Lee has 0 perspective, but good god that guy has the look of someone who comes here and is terrible written all over him. that might be worse than the garcia signing dollar for dollar if he is to get a multi year deal. Garcia's is obviously worse because of the years, but at least he had a track record of 3 really good years in the not so distant past. Drury had an .813 OPS last year and yet his career OPS is still just .736 in over 2000 ab's, with an OBP for his career of just over .300. The guy is not any kind of meaningful player.

So basically sounds like a typical Marlins FA signing of late ....lol

[fish16]

It's still such a farce that MLB picked this ownership group. It's not surprising, because Manfred is the worst commissioner in any sport in my lifetime, but it's one of those things that looked bad at the time, and looks worse now.

I am encouraged, that the local media is blasting the Marlins right now, though. It's kind of funny because there's a lot of time in the offseason, and they still could make some moves, but while everyone has always known the Marlins are cheap, and get hammered during fire sales, the fact that nobody really covers them outside of Mish, kind of lets them slide by most years. So seeing bunch of local media members like Barry Jackson, Will Manso, and Clay Ferraro chiding them for being cheap and inactive is refreshing, and might just put some extra pressure on them to do something and/or maybe even force this ownership group to sell sooner than they might have if the noise gets louder.

Mish is clearly a great reporter and has sources with this team, but the consistent trotting out there of this line where "they spent over $100 million last offseason" is laughable. First off, 100 million is what most good teams spend in long term money over every offseason. If you sign a single big name free agent, even if it's not the 300 million guys, it should put you over 100 million in guarantees.

Second, the 100 million is over how many years? soler is 36 over 3, Garcia is only 48 million guaranteed over 4, and Sandy's deal was an obvious discount because they were signing him early, which is not for nothing, but it's just not an impressive amount of money for a major league organization to brag about. and they most certainly were counting on Soler opting out after this year for the cost of just 12 million over 1 year. Adding 24 million per year in payroll over 3-4 years plus sandy is not any kind of significant investment that any major league organization should trot out there as some sort of indication of "spending money." It's frankly more pathetic to trot that out there as the company line. 12 million a year for 2 different players is what this franchise is bragging about as "spending". If thats not an indication that this guy needs to sell the team immediately, what is?

[fish16]

So basically sounds like a typical Marlins FA signing of late ....lol

that's exactly what it is. It's Mike Morse, Garrett Jones, Junichi Tazawa, Wei-Yen Chen, etc. all over again but somehow worse. It's the definition of buying high for a limited talent.

[rmc523]

that's exactly what it is. It's Mike Morse, Garrett Jones, Junichi Tazawa, Wei-Yen Chen, etc. all over again but somehow worse. It's the definition of buying high for a limited talent.

Kim must be salivating at the idea of adding him.

[fish16]

shocker, another target goes elsewhere because Ng cant close a deal. Murphy to the braves.

[lou]

i keep seeing Lee mention Brandon Drury and I cant think of a worse signing. Not only is he going to get a decent amount of money, but he has a horrendous track record outside of this past year. He had 2 decent years in Arizona to begin his career, then was awful or played almost no big league games in 4 straight years, then had a good year last year in an amazing hitters park before being mediocre for the padres after he was traded there after the deadline. I get its the most recent thing he's seen and Lee has 0 perspective, but good god that guy has the look of someone who comes here and is terrible written all over him. that might be worse than the garcia signing dollar for dollar if he is to get a multi year deal. Garcia's is obviously worse because of the years, but at least he had a track record of 3 really good years in the not so distant past. Drury had an .813 OPS last year and yet his career OPS is still just .736 in over 2000 ab's, with an OBP for his career of just over .300. The guy is not any kind of meaningful player.

He hits lefties pretty hard. It depends on the price of course.

[lou]

shocker, another target goes elsewhere because Ng cant close a deal. Murphy to the braves.

They shouldn't be selling the farm for him (even if Murphy is very good). So this one isn't a big deal. Remember, robo umps are coming and pitch framers will suffer. Murphy will still be great, but I imagine not 5 WAR great.


Still, what in the actual fuck is this team doing?

Braves - Murphy (previously extended Riley, Harris, Strider for free agency years)

Mets - Nimmo, Segna, Verlander, E. Diaz, Quintana, D. Robertson

Phillies - Turner, Walker, Strahm

Marlins - ....... Chargois for the bullpen


You were 5-15 games behind all of these teams before these moves, and now it's a healthy at least 10 (Phillies) and 20 (Mets, Braves). Your payroll is, checks notes, 5.33 times lower than the Mets, 3x lower than the Phillies, and a 2.5x lower than the Braves, where if you just spent a little ($40-50m) you could make up a lot of those games pretty quickly.

Like the fuck? Read the room Bruce?

[rmc523]

They shouldn't be selling the farm for him (even if Murphy is very good). So this one isn't a big deal. Remember, robo umps are coming and pitch framers will suffer. Murphy will still be great, but I imagine not 5 WAR great.


Still, what in the actual fuck is this team doing?

Braves - Murphy (previously extended Riley, Harris, Strider for free agency years)

Mets - Nimmo, Segna, Verlander, E. Diaz, Quintana, D. Robertson

Phillies - Turner, Walker, Strahm

Marlins - ....... Chargois for the bullpen


You were 5-15 games behind all of these teams before these moves, and now it's a healthy at least 10 (Phillies) and 20 (Mets, Braves). Your payroll is, checks notes, 5.33 times lower than the Mets, 3x lower than the Phillies, and a 2.5x lower than the Braves, where if you just spent a little ($40-50m) you could make up a lot of those games pretty quickly.

Like the fuck? Read the room Bruce?

Yeah, I just don't understand how we sit here and do literally nothing.

[fish16]

They shouldn't be selling the farm for him (even if Murphy is very good). So this one isn't a big deal. Remember, robo umps are coming and pitch framers will suffer. Murphy will still be great, but I imagine not 5 WAR great.


Still, what in the actual fuck is this team doing?

Braves - Murphy (previously extended Riley, Harris, Strider for free agency years)

Mets - Nimmo, Segna, Verlander, E. Diaz, Quintana, D. Robertson

Phillies - Turner, Walker, Strahm

Marlins - ....... Chargois for the bullpen


You were 5-15 games behind all of these teams before these moves, and now it's a healthy at least 10 (Phillies) and 20 (Mets, Braves). Your payroll is, checks notes, 5.33 times lower than the Mets, 3x lower than the Phillies, and a 2.5x lower than the Braves, where if you just spent a little ($40-50m) you could make up a lot of those games pretty quickly.

Like the fuck? Read the room Bruce?

who is talking about selling the farm? The braves gave up William Contreras. Enough already, how many guys have to come and go that we "check in on" before we question Ng's ability to close any deal. I dont blame her for free agents, but trades? She deserves the vast majority of the blame for the failure to pull the trigger. Let's wait to see the price on Murphy because as of right now it makes 0 sense to me that the Brewers got contreras for essentially PIna who is a mediocre catcher, but how many guys can continue to go on the trade market and we dont get them and Ng continue to avoid huge blame. Enough already, pull the fucking trigger on a deal or get rid of her. IT's every offseason, every deadline, every guy that gets moved, we're in on XYZ but cant ever pull the trigger. So we hoard prospects on a team that is going to win 70 games max?