2022-2023 Offseason Thread

[rmc523]

The point is they need to do anything.

Also to expound on the ridiculous of not signing Correa - they'd have to give him an opt out and he'd be gone post 2025 anyways ala what Machado is going to do next year.

I'd rather have Correa for a couple years and opt out than have absolutely nobody like we otherwise will have.

[sports24/7]

I'd rather have Correa for a couple years and opt out than have absolutely nobody like we otherwise will have.

I just can't see how they do nothing. I guess they could, because it's the Marlins, but in doing that they would absolutely nuke interest in the team when interest already might be at an all-time low. I just don't think they can afford that. So while competitively, it might actually be worse for them in the long run, I think they'll actually end up overpaying with prospects for a trade for a decent player rather than just standing pat, or making a small move or two.

[fish16]

I just can't see how they do nothing. I guess they could, because it's the Marlins, but in doing that they would absolutely nuke interest in the team when interest already might be at an all-time low. I just don't think they can afford that. So while competitively, it might actually be worse for them in the long run, I think they'll actually end up overpaying with prospects for a trade for a decent player rather than just standing pat, or making a small move or two.

i doubt they are standing pat. What i think could be happening aside from the fact that they clearly arent opening the wallet is waiting until all of the top pitchers get signed so that the trade market for pitchers gets better for us.

[lou]

i doubt they are standing pat. What i think could be happening aside from the fact that they clearly arent opening the wallet is waiting until all of the top pitchers get signed so that the trade market for pitchers gets better for us.

With what these pitchers are signing for, you don't need to wait. They can just do it.

My hope is they are in on Correa/Swanson, so they are stuck until they find out about the big commitment. I am not holding my breath.

[sports24/7]

i doubt they are standing pat. What i think could be happening aside from the fact that they clearly arent opening the wallet is waiting until all of the top pitchers get signed so that the trade market for pitchers gets better for us.

I hope that's the case. I just tweeted this thought to Mish, and his response was a little bit depressing. He said in FA it's probably going to be minor moves, and at the moment it doesn't appear any trades for overly good players are on the horizon. I just can't imagine they'd be that obtuse about what that would do to the fanbase. Like, why would anyone have any interest in this team if they're close to the roster we saw last season?

[Nick]

They could clear out the farm system, and crush every trade and it wouldn't be enough to turn this team into a playoff threat without significant Free Agent signings.

I'm betting Sherman's stance is "well I let you sign guys last year and you beefed it." So find another way this year. Either way we continue to be cheap, and I don't understand how someone can buy a major league baseball team and just be happy to sit in the bottom 5 of payroll for your entire tenure. I'm going to spend billions of dollars of my money to buy a professional baseball team with no interest in making it successful, I just want to hold onto it for 10 years and sell it for a couple more billion. How fun!

[fish16]

With what these pitchers are signing for, you don't need to wait. They can just do it.

My hope is they are in on Correa/Swanson, so they are stuck until they find out about the big commitment. I am not holding my breath.

mish has already said essentially they are not in on any of the big free agents.

[fish16]

They could clear out the farm system, and crush every trade and it wouldn't be enough to turn this team into a playoff threat without significant Free Agent signings.

I'm betting Sherman's stance is "well I let you sign guys last year and you beefed it." So find another way this year. Either way we continue to be cheap, and I don't understand how someone can buy a major league baseball team and just be happy to sit in the bottom 5 of payroll for your entire tenure. I'm going to spend billions of dollars of my money to buy a professional baseball team with no interest in making it successful, I just want to hold onto it for 10 years and sell it for a couple more billion. How fun!

completely agree. ive never understood why you buy a major league team like this for such a stupid amount of money and just dont do what it takes to spend money to win. if he doesnt have the money to spend, he shouldnt have bought the team.

[rmc523]

I just can't see how they do nothing. I guess they could, because it's the Marlins, but in doing that they would absolutely nuke interest in the team when interest already might be at an all-time low. I just don't think they can afford that. So while competitively, it might actually be worse for them in the long run, I think they'll actually end up overpaying with prospects for a trade for a decent player rather than just standing pat, or making a small move or two.

I just don't understand how they can be so tone deaf to how fans feel. I know that shouldn't necessarily be a factor, but the utter ignoring of the history of this team and how fans have been treated is crazy.

[lou]

I just don't understand how they can be so tone deaf to how fans feel. I know that shouldn't necessarily be a factor, but the utter ignoring of the history of this team and how fans have been treated is crazy.

Hopefully this drives him to sell as this hobby is too expensive for him. I think the Mets free agents have a higher net worth than Bruce Sherman.

Honestly, when is MLB/MLBPA going to figure out something as the luxury tax isn't working. Great for those players with these deals, but the competitive balance of the sport is going to be really stretched soon and this hurts the product. 10-15 teams can't be out of it purely financially on day 1. Maybe we WANT Steve Cohen to keep spending so some of the other owners want to stop him.

I legit can't wait to see what Steve offers Ohtani. 10/$500?

[rmc523]

Hopefully this drives him to sell as this hobby is too expensive for him. I think the Mets free agents have a higher net worth than Bruce Sherman.

Honestly, when is MLB/MLBPA going to figure out something as the luxury tax isn't working. Great for those players with these deals, but the competitive balance of the sport is going to be really stretched soon and this hurts the product. 10-15 teams can't be out of it purely financially on day 1. Maybe we WANT Steve Cohen to keep spending so some of the other owners want to stop him.

I legit can't wait to see what Steve offers Ohtani. 10/$500?

Yeah it's pretty ridiculous.

[Lee Stone]

A team's success is tied to drafting solid future major leaguers and signing international gems more than anything. That's where the Marlins have failed most miserably.

Here's an article from Brewer land with regard to Brandon Drury. I think he fits for the Marlins. Brandon Drury is a Perfect Fit for the Brewers - Brewers - Brewer Fanatic

[sports24/7]

A team's success is tied to drafting solid future major leaguers and signing international gems more than anything. That's where the Marlins have failed most miserably.

Here's an article from Brewer land with regard to Brandon Drury. I think he fits for the Marlins. Brandon Drury is a Perfect Fit for the Brewers - Brewers - Brewer Fanatic

The Marlins haven’t been blowing the draft and international signings out of the water, but I don’t think I’d say they failed. They’ve done poorly with hitters, but really well with pitchers. They had a really nice 2020. They have guys like Garrett and Rogers from the draft. And in IFA they have upper level guys like Eury and Cabrera, and lower level guys like Cappe and Salas. You don’t have a whole hell of a lot of teams doing much better than that.

[lou]

Here's an article from Brewer land with regard to Brandon Drury. I think he fits for the Marlins. Brandon Drury is a Perfect Fit for the Brewers - Brewers - Brewer Fanatic

Drury makes sense as a 3rd/4th offensive upgrade if the price is right. Mainly because of this:

vs LHP
Career - .267/.298/.472 (.770)
2022 - .299/.329/.626 (.955)

The team does need more "hitters" but it's hard to look away from that slugging, larger sample size, and a real spike last year as maybe he is blooming late. They really need a guy who can hit lefties. Play him against all lefties and some righties. You could see 70 games at 3B and 70 games at 1B pretty easily if he hits righties again like last year (career .720 OPS, .757 in 2022).

TBH I'd rather take a swing at him versus Turner as Turner is well into his decline phase at 38 and may fall apart (good statacast though so he's still hitting, but defense is dropping and they can't hide him as much at DH), but Drury will be 30 and his statcast looks pretty solid (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savan...-r-hitting-mlb) and he is a good enough defender at 3B and presumably would play up at 1B with a large sample size there. I also think some contender will offer Turner so throwing money at a guy who already has $90m in career earnings won't be helpful to the Marlins, and Drury has career earnings of $4.9m so every extra million (+ no state income tax) is going to matter to him big time as this may be the only cash-in he gets if he doesn't hit.

Teams may value him as a 2B or a LF lefty killer which will make things more difficult for the Marlins as he's not purely a corner guy, but if the price is right (this is probably 2/$18-24), I think he makes some sense. Guys like Bell/Joc are getting $17-19m a year and Rizzo/Abreau more, so I think one would need to scale Drury down a bit and treat him as a preferred lefty masher platoon partner with upside.

It doesn't matter without a CF and some other upgrade (presumably SS), but he does make sense to push Groshans/LeBlanc to AAA for year and to be injury call ups.

[lou]

I've also been thinking about the Twins and how they've expressed interest in Pablo.

If they do land Correa (they have budget), they don't need POLANCO and can move Arraez to 2B to play their best lineup. That kicks Royce Lewis to the OF longterm which is fine for them, and they have other OF (Martin) coming and solid prospects too (Larnach, Wallner) in addition to Buxton longterm. I forgot they got Kyle Farmer also who is a great do everything guy and a lefty killer. Basically, they would have C, 2B, SS, 3B (Miranda), and the entire OF covered short and longterm, with a semi question mark if Kiriloff is just a stats darling and doesn't work out. They would just have to sign a 1B/DH guy or two (and they'd have budget for that on top of Correa historically).

So looking at their needs, they could use a SP upgrade for sure. Big huge need. Then, Wendle would be perfect for them to kick Miranda to 1B if Kiriloff sucks again (ignoring a FA would likely be added by them who would help them there.... Turner/Longoria/Drury guy makes a lot of sense) and they need another bullpen lefty of which the Marlins have 7(!) on their 40 man roster and could live without one or two. A Wendle/Farmer platoon out there is a perfect R/L mix TBH.

So the Twins would probably be really really interested in this:

Pablo
Wendle
Scott/Okert/Bleier
Castano/Nardi/Simpson/Reynolds

for

J. Polanco (3/$30, last two years are options)
E. Rodriguez, who is a maybe CF, likely corner longterm, OF prospect but BOY did he rake in A ball and they can live without an OF prospect when they have Buxton/Lewis for years and likely will produce a third one internally (https://www.fangraphs.com/players/em...ts?position=OF). Rodriguez is a huge prospect, we'd consider him a Cappe/Salas minimum.
Throw in prospects (or Nick Gordon?)

This probably lowers Marlins payroll by $5 (more if they would take Bleier), and increases Twins the same which is fine as they fill huge needs for them. This creates short and longterm value for Pablo for shifting his production to SS which is dramatically needed and gets a really massive OF prospect. Maybe the throw-ins are a mid tier guy pretty close and a low end guy far away to make it a perfect 4-4 trade. Maybe I'm under selling the Marlins guys and they get something better (Gordon? Kepler?).

I'm interested in this here because of this:

Polanco vs RHP
2022 - .240/.373/.459
Career - .273/.349/.457

The lineups write themselves especially with Drury as a lefty masher so he can move around also. Maybe this makes more sense then looking at Rosario as Rosario is 1/$9 and will need in this market a 5/$70 extension minimum. Polanco and Rojas would be an as effective platoon I think.


So then we swing back to an every day CF and a side impact of getting Rodriguez here is, they can more easily trade someone in the farm knowing they did just get a huge prospect for Pablo. Cough Bryan Reynolds who is perfect and deal with the defense for a year or two and hope Sanchez can handle CF 50 games to help him. Or get a better 4th OF via trade somewhere.