2021-2022 Offseason Thread

[fish16]

Grayson Rodriguez, age 22, is considered the top pitching prospect in baseball. Statistically speaking, Eury Perez, age 19, is every bit as good in his blossoming career. If Kahlil Watson can get his strikeouts under control, the Marlins may have two top-ten prospects after this season.

Watson is a lindor/jazz hybrid clone to me. The k's need to come down of course but that's the most purely talented guy we have in the entire system. He's not big but the bat speed is crazy.and allows him to hit for a ton of power

[Lee Stone]

At least it's good to know that we could drop the entire bullpen, replace them with Simpson, Brigham, Maldonado, Yan, Nardi, Fishman, etc. and likely improve. Relief pitching has become the strongest area of our minor league system. (Very nice story in Brigham fighting his way back.)

[fish16]

At least it's good to know that we could drop the entire bullpen, replace them with Simpson, Brigham, Maldonado, Yan, Nardi, Fishman, etc. and likely improve. Relief pitching has become the strongest area of our minor league system. (Very nice story in Brigham fighting his way back.)

our bullpen has actually been really good overall, we have the 6th lowest bullpen era in baseball. It's the lack of a closer that is the issue. The depth is there. Scott has been decent, Sulser has been really good, bass has been great, Okert scares me but the numbers are good, head's peripherals arent great but the results thus far have been good, Bleier has been ok, poteet has been shut down, and nance thus far has been solid as well. It's literally just been bender in the 9th or other save situations that has turned what could have been a really nice start for the team into a mediocre one. If they signed Jansen, we'd be a good amount over .500.

we have 12 1 run losses already. a few of them were comebacks that fell short, but many of them were just games our bullpen blew in terrible fashion.

[lou]

our bullpen has actually been really good overall, we have the 6th lowest bullpen era in baseball. It's the lack of a closer that is the issue. The depth is there. Scott has been decent, Sulser has been really good, bass has been great, Okert scares me but the numbers are good, head's peripherals arent great but the results thus far have been good, Bleier has been ok, poteet has been shut down, and nance thus far has been solid as well. It's literally just been bender in the 9th or other save situations that has turned what could have been a really nice start for the team into a mediocre one. If they signed Jansen, we'd be a good amount over .500.

we have 12 1 run losses already. a few of them were comebacks that fell short, but many of them were just games our bullpen blew in terrible fashion.

Ignoring the ridiculousness of Lee's post, the lack of a closer isn't a major issue. Let's please not revert back to pre-moneyball philosophies just because of some 1 run losses. Bullpen management is an issue though. Usage plus two of their best 13 arms (Meyer, Cabrera) are still in AAA for presumably service time issues. This also ignores another top 13 arm (Sixto) is hurt so depth is coming. Arms are not anywhere near a problem.

What this team needs is 2 radical offensive upgrades, maybe even a third (i.e. Henry). Then, maybe we can think about a luxury reliever upgrade. They'd be the same team with Kenley. Maybe 1-2 wins better as the bullpen runs would just be moved to different places. The difference between Kenley and last man in bullpen (Head?) is probably 10-15 runs on the season. You'd get double that per offensive upgrade, if not triple if we're talking about someone like Correa/Reynolds. It would be worth multiple additional wins easily.

The top 5 issues with this team for me are:

1 - Bruce Sherman being cheap and not going for Correa/Stud

2 - Bruce Sherman being cheap and not adding another $5-15m player on top of that (including a DFA of Aguilar or Soler and adding their money on top of what they are being paid to get someone better, like Rizzo)

3 - Bruce Sherman being cheap and not adding another $5+ for bench upgrades (Henry, etc.)

4 - Don Mattingly absolutely bizarre bullpen usage and lineups. As well as not understanding the rules - apparently they could have got Jazz on 2nd base to open extras last night with using some DH/pitcher change rules (https://twitter.com/fmmercogliano/st...22178595966978), but they don't understand the rules and opted to have Bass out there running. This is terrible.

5 - Refusal to trade prospects for a bat (I'm not sure if this is Ng or Sherman. Probably both)


Nothing is going to change until the root of the problem is solved with cheapness.

But, if we want to be granular and ignore that and accept they will only spend $75-80m, the criticism shifts quickly to not trading for cheap bats with the prospects to improve things. Their lack of doing that is playing for 2023/2024 and extending the rebuild to 6-7 years. Which is brutal with this pitching. The team will be loaded in 2 years with all the prospects for sure so I get that, but at what point do you field a complete product and try and win? Especially when you can do it for a bottom 22-23 payroll and keep 80% of your top prospects? You are a business? Basically, Kenley isn't fixing this organizational mess. This is rotten to the bone until they make serious commitments to winning and it stars with multiple OOOMPH bats.

[lou]

Grayson Rodriguez, age 22, is considered the top pitching prospect in baseball. Statistically speaking, Eury Perez, age 19, is every bit as good in his blossoming career. If Kahlil Watson can get his strikeouts under control, the Marlins may have two top-ten prospects after this season.

Ian Lewis is showing other-worldly skill with the bat through his first week of A-Ball.

Eury is out of his mind. It's a ridiculous SSS, but he's the clear # 1 prospect in the system with what he is doing. Carving up AA in even limited innings for a 19 year old is bananas. Maybe they were right to call him Beckett/Fernandez level prospect. Very exciting.

It suggest Pablo/Meyer/Cabrera is the main SP to move. On one hand, I can see them excited to fail this year so they can trade Pablo and get more prospects.

[Namaste]

We have the worst Pythagorean win % in MLB if I’m not mistaken

It’s early, but, yeah.

[lou]

We have the worst Pythagorean win % in MLB if I’m not mistaken

It’s early, but, yeah.

16th runs scored, 5th runs allowed.

Whose fault is it minor leaguers not traded for a stud CF and/or Correa not signed outright to replace Aguilar/Soler on the roster for payroll deflection purposes?

[sports24/7]

I suggested last year that I'd think about trading Rogers for bats because his value may never be higher. People didn't like that idea. It's way too early to say anything remotely conclusive about that, but it looks like that might have been the right move. If this season continues the way it is, I wonder if Pablo will be the guy they should move at his peak value this year. The only thing with trading Pablo is you're limited to teams ready to win now. A team like the Pirates won't be interested. You wouldn't have had that issue with Rogers.

[Nick]

We have the worst Pythagorean win % in MLB if I’m not mistaken

It’s early, but, yeah.

It was the same story last year at this time as well. If I'm not mistaken.

At some point you are what you are.

[lou]

I suggested last year that I'd think about trading Rogers for bats because his value may never be higher. People didn't like that idea. It's way too early to say anything remotely conclusive about that, but it looks like that might have been the right move. If this season continues the way it is, I wonder if Pablo will be the guy they should move at his peak value this year. The only thing with trading Pablo is you're limited to teams ready to win now. A team like the Pirates won't be interested. You wouldn't have had that issue with Rogers.

Gotta keep the lefties and guys with 4-5 years of control who have showed elite upside like Rogers - but I agree Pablo is the one to move now at peak value. He would get a fortune at this deadline (assuming not contending of course). I'd almost say move him contending or not contending as just trust the young arms and they'd offset Pablo with likely a comparable bat so it's not like anything decreases in production. Longterm pipeline for me right now:

Sandy
Eury* (Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto)
Rogers (Eder/Fulton)
Luzardo (Eder/Fulton)
Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto/Eder/Sixto

Pablo is great, but I'd rather turn him into a bat versus pay him. Get the players AND use that money.

I feel pretty confident there are 5 longterm SP there among 9 names, 1 of which is an ace and the two main lefties showing big potential overall. They can basically have a 50% flameout rate after Sandy and theoretically have an elite staff. I think they could move Pablo very quickly to an AL contender, get prospects, and ship the correct package for Reynolds, or Mullins, or Hays (who is good!), or whoever. I'm not concerned about that. It's really just the broken record of what pitcher are they going to trade, and big picture I agree with you. It's probably Pablo right now and believe in the kids.


*He's like the best pitcher in AA with the swinging strike rates/whiffs. He's the keep of the group today for me and pencil in for # 2 RHP.

[lou]

FG loves Pablo. LOVES - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pablo-lo...oked-starters/

And blurb on Cabrera today - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/monday-p...notes-5-23-22/


TLDR - Pablo is awesome and they really ding ownership for being so cheap, and Cabrera should turn into a player but carries injury risk

[Nick]

To me Eury Perez is our #1 prospect and it’s not even close. What he’s doing at AA at 19 is ridiculous.

[lou]

To me Eury Perez is our #1 prospect and it’s not even close. What he’s doing at AA at 19 is ridiculous.

Yes 100%. They were wrong to not go for a CF trade, but absolutely right to make him off-limits. He may be Beckettt/Fernandez level after all versus just posturing. He's probably the only off limits one right now in the farm for me.

[Namaste]

I’m really rooting for this kid but Jesus Sanchez has a K rate above 30%

[lou]

I’m really rooting for this kid but Jesus Sanchez has a K rate above 30%

I'm not too worried about him.

Career
vs LHP 111 AB, .198/.239/.342 (.582), 5/47 BB/K
vs RHP 281 AB, .235/.314/.456 (.770), 29/90 BB/K
Overall BABIP .294

It's a small sample size, but he is tracking this in 2022 with a .784 OPS (10/32 BB/K in 106 AB) against RHP and a....... .235 OPS(!!!!!) vs LHP with a.... 0/16 BB/K in 34 PA. Also a .295 BABIP so this looks for real. Yikes against lefties. YIKES.

So big picture for me, it's still effectively his rookie year. He's pretty solid against righties already. The BBs and slugging at that average clip are both really good. He is displaying pretty solid/average defense in CF to his credit (I didn't see that coming), which likely would scale up in a corner which will help a lot when they finally get a CF. I'd venture to say he is a very good platoon player right now with the obvious glaring weakness. Fangraphs actually has him pacing as a 2+ WAR player this year. They expect some improvements coming, which seems reasonable as those lefty stats are WTF and he is still walking showing some plate discipline. I think a 30% K rate is the old 25% K rate. Relievers are amazing now. 30% is OK if you walk, jack, and play defense, and he does all three of those against righties.

Once he matures a little, you'd hope he scales the average a little up against right handers and he could turn into a .250/.325/.475+ hitter very quickly against them. If he can get the left handers to .600+ OPS land, he's a 2-3 WAR starter with the defense. That would be great big picture.

Also I know this is way (way) below his pay grade, but if Garcia keeps sucking, these two are a really awesome RHP/LHP platoon in a corner moving forward. Garcia is career .815 OPS vs LHP and plays outstanding defense. It could be a 3-4 WAR hard platoon easily if Garcia is just a defender/lefty killer and Sanchez hits RHP at .775+ OPS. Get a stud every day CF, and one of Bleday/Burdick working out enough (as Garcia can help them also) and the OF is very good. All roads lead back to the stud CF.

Anyways, I think Sanchez will be fine. He's not going to be a star though more than likely, but that's OK.